Barfights, Winchester, Indians & Bearing the Unsustainable
Yemen produces more history than can be consumed locally
I hope everyone is recovering from the holiday season enough to gird your loins and livers for New Years and bowl season … but when you get a chance, make sure and keep your eyes open to the rapidly developing events in the Red Sea.
To start things off, we simply have to tip the hat to the exceptional work by Norfolk based, 28-yr old USS LABOON (DDG 58) and her little airwing friend;
That is 17 targets. We don’t know how many the pointy-nosed guy got or what missiles were used to take out the rest, but I assume SM-2/3/6 for the ASBM and LACM.
As I like to say; you can’t buy training like this.
As we’ve been playing fly-swatter off Yemen for the last few months and have been cycling through quite a few of our DDG, when I looked at the number engaged just on Boxing Day from one DDG, I started to wonder about two things:
I assume with the ASBM we’re doing SHOOT-SHOOT-LOOK-SHOOT just due to the math with those fast moving critters. Are we SHOOT-LOOK-SHOOT with the others? How much, if any, is our 5” gun or secondary systems getting to play? The pointy-nosed guy this time?
Who is keeping track about the number of Houthi drones/LACM/ASCM/ASBM we’ve shot down since October?
Reason why I’m pondering this is simple; I’m not all that sure this is sustainable.
Someone is going to run out of missiles (Winchester) eventually. We are not making efforts to take out their launchers and magazines ashore, so they are at liberty to pop off at will.
On our end? That had me wander over to March 2023 report by the Comptroller.
Take a look at the units we bought in 2024.
First, look at the units we’re buying to replace the SM-2, the multi-purpose (which is the best purpose) SM-6. I know SM-2 are still in production, but from what I’ve seen that is just for allied navies. If you see different, let me know in comments, but I believe the USN is only buying SM-6, not SM-2.
OK, that’s 125 a year.
How about the ballistic missile specialist SM-3?
Just a few dozen. Huh. We’re not buying all that much considering what we’ve been sending downrange this year.
What am I missing budget pros?
Anyway, not to channel my inner Elbridge Colby here, but … I keep thinking of the varsity game in the Western Pacific. If you want to sober up - get the classified briefing on the Red Sea engagements and then look at any of your garden variety Taiwan scenarios.
The math it hard. Industrial capacity is harder. Logistics is a nightmare.
There’s your math problem, but I have a larger issue with our OPERATION ROPE-A-DOPE - what are we actually trying to accomplish?
If our mission is to intercept as many outbound weapons from Houthi controlled Yemen - sent to everyone from Israel, to shipping, to USN DDGs - with the hope to avoid anything that might escalate the Gaza conflict, then perhaps we’re doing OK in the short run.
If our mission is to deter the Houthis from attacking Israel or shipping, then I’m not sure we are doing all that well. To paraphrase something I said last night SEPCOR; if you are in a bar and some jerk starts taking swings at you and you dodge every punch he throws, side step every kick he makes without touching him - why should he feel deterred from continuing his attacks? If all his friends and big brother are cheering him on while he talks smack to you, insults your mom, sister, the scooter you drove in on - the whole shebang - why should he stop as long as he has the energy to continue? In reality, this will just lead him to grab an empty bottle, a bar stool, or a pool cue and try to bash your brain in with that instead.
Nothing we’re doing is deterring the Houthis. We have done absolutely nothing but encourage their behavior. As we are not taking out their launch sites or magazines, really we’re just in a competition to see if they run out of missiles before we run out of fresh VLS cells east of Rota.
The humorously named Operation Prosperity Guardian is, if anything, signaling a lack of resolve and division in the international community.
A final note that caught my eye is a player we’ve all been waiting to show up, India.
India has deployed destroyers equipped with guided missiles in the Arabian Sea "to maintain a deterrent presence" following an attack on a tanker off its west coast.
The vessel that came under attack on Saturday, the MV Chem Pluto, has reached the Indian city of Mumbai with a naval escort, the defense ministry said in a statement. The Liberian-flagged oil tanker had a crew of 21 Indians and one Vietnamese, who were all unhurt.
…
"Considering the recent spate of attacks in the Arabian Sea, Indian Navy has deployed Guided Missile Destroyers [namely] INS Mormugao, INS Kochi and INS Kolkata ... in various areas to maintain a deterrent.
For those not familiar with the Indian Navy, these are three of their six most modern 7,400 ton displacement destroyers.
I can’t quite find out where they will be deployed or how long they plan to be there … but this is not insignificant.
We are only in the opening chapters of this story, but I’m not sure it will get worse.
Even if we don’t change our response to these attacks, through persistence we can endure through what one would suspect is a limited Houthi inventory of useful weapons, especially if we can stop resupply from Iran. With a large dose of luck, we may get through with only an impact on economics and our own magazine depth.
There are two downsides even with this optimistic possible outcome.
We’ve burned through an already thin inventory.
We’ve established a precedence that anyone can take pot-shots at American warships without response.
The second worries me the most.
"The second worries me the most."
All of us here, ...as well!
I'm becoming convinced that this will stop only when Iran is hit...hard. As in an effort to smash their air defenses, sink their navy, eliminate their coastal defense antiship missiles. Make it hurt.