Americans of Iranian background generally hate the Islamic Republic pretty universally. They also know the solution lies in the people of their homeland. Peace people and war people exist on both sides everywhere. Successfully planting peace can take a long time and can always be lost the next planting season.
You're not wrong about Jarrett however surmising her decision solely because of her background, shows you've not met many Persians or, gotten to know them. Jarret may be of Persian background but, her motivations are purely because she's a Leftist that's fully immersed in being an internationalist.
The vast majority of those who are Westernized, particialry Americans, have ZERO love for the theocrats currently in-charge and would be the first ones cheering any punitive action against the pillars of the Islamic Republic.
Was involved on the periphery of logistics related issues for future conflicts for many years. Our logistics to fight major conflict in ANY theater were pretty much limited to "win fast and violently or lose". UKR has further drained our basic munitions stocks and further disrupted / delayed overdue maintenance schedules. Next weather window for big trouble in the Pacific is this coming spring. It's almost like we are being inflicted with a "death by a dozen slashes" approach. Whether it is by design or by accident, yes, war material and equipment stocks are being depleted, and no one seems overly concerned. Black swans are by definition unforseen, hope we aren't saying "a blind man could have seen that" in the near future.
I really hasn't though about the absolute super fastest approach. I've been looking at the fall weather window in terms of US domestic politics being used as a weapon.
The TAO’s and SWC’s are getting lots of training. That’s good. Knowing when to shoot and having the ROE and battle orders to commit is important. So is recognition differential. This looks like very good AIC / Airwing coordination. I wonder if they are establishing a ModLoc Red Crown or moving the Red Crown around a cordon? I also suspect the Chinese COSCO ships are gaining Intel on our air defense plans and tactics. At least three of our DDG’s are now green on the stoplight chart for readiness. (Don’t think they haven’t already reported that readiness to the Strike group / DESRON.
We need to immediately step up our punitive game. Houthis need to get the pee pee slapped like yesterday..
It is beyond obvious to me that this is the fastest way to end this thing. And yet I have read no words emanating from any national government to the effect that this course of action is even being considered; much less about to be implemented.
They didn't teach that at Sullivan's school, the finest American Institution of Higher Plagiarism. And since that degree and his bootlicking skills are all he has...
Billy: Since you mentioned Israel, the Houthis are practicing at sea exactly the same strategy that Hamas and Hezbollah practice on land. Indescriminate firing of rockets, missiles or drones (whatever is available) with occasional targeted or lucky hits. Iran is the driving force behind all three proxy forces. The White House has been aiding and abetting Iran since January 21, 2009. No wonder that US military strategy in the Eastern Med, Red Sea and Gulf is "hands off" with regard to Iran and its three proxies.
While I am not for any un-thought-out precipitous action, pussyfooting around won't resolve the issue. If force doesn't change their minds then the force needs to remove their heads. The soup sandwich approach didn't work in CHAZ. It won't work in Yemen.
I have been asking for weeks why there isn't rockets/missiles being shot into launch sites. There is a plethora of methods for spotting launch sites, from drones to satellites. It should not be a difficult task.
Obama/Sullivan/Blinken and the rest of the crew running our foreign policy are apparently convinced that the Iranians can be bribed into becoming our allies. Proof that Orwell knew what he was talking about when he said "There are some ideas so absurd that only an intellectual could believe them."
A bunch of pissants are testing one of the pillars of the rules based order (freedom of navigation) basically unchallenged. As Aurelien wrote in Substack:
"The western world is faced with a series of practical, political, economic and existential challenges as grave as any it has faced in its history, requiring highly competent governments, states and private sectors to deal with them successfully.
But the capacity of all the sectors mentioned above is already insufficient and getting worse, and there is no obvious way of correcting this.
Here's a scenario that will make you warm and fuzzy inside. Picture coordinated SPEC OPS teams or CIA assets fixing the launch sites and bringing the heat. Fix 'em, paint that target, and call in the ordinance! We know where they are, get it done and stop hemorrhaging cash. SPEC OPS like this scare the shit out of those left behind. Fact.
Yes, exactly. Let them prep for a launch configuration and paint them all at once. Take out every launch vehicle, every weapon, and all its operators. Call it in overwhelmingly to cover the egress. Launch simultaneous airstrikes against the logistics chain. Do it right once and it's unlikely you'll ever have to do it again.
And, take out any storage sites for reloads, and the ports through which they were delivered.
The departure points on the Iranian coast can be left for later, but everything hostile to shipping in Houthiland needs to be rubble ASAP. Quit swatting flys, clean up the dung piles where they are breeding.
If its not so difficult then tells us how it should be done.
Unless the US assigns a CVN or a bunch of land based tactical aircraft where are these magic missiles and rockets supposed to come from?
The US has ,right now, exactly 1 long distance surface attack weapons system suitable outside of the Airforce or a CVW: Tomahawk. By the time it arrives these launchers (analogous to HIMARS but with missiles and drones not range limited by a treaty) would be gone.
A reminder: Saudi Arabia tried for 6+- years to stop Houthi missiles and drones with a US equipped air force parked next door. They did not succeed.
I don’t know what you are in a snit about, I mentioned in the post you seem to have a problem with that drones and satellites are options also AWAC planes. Have you noticed there are several US Navy ships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden?
The drone/satellite/AWAC spots a launch and call in a F16 and they put ordinance on the target or a ship launches a tomahawk. No need for long range missiles, good old laser guided bombs work pretty well too.
If there was leadership in the White House and the military was interested in something other than dressing up in drag and changing everyone’s gender it could happen.
How old are you 14? Ask your dad or grandad how to fix it. It is not rocket science.
I watched Saudi up close, from the edge of the runway close, they didn’t want to stop them either. Six planes a day with 2 laser guided bombs each. Not real convincing.
I seem to recall that a good portion of the USAF and USN plus various foreign air forces, with the aid of various Commando types, could not prevent the Iraqis from firing SCUDS into Israel.
I am now visualizing some wonk sporting a man bun and skinny jeans from a D.C. think tank has the White House staff convinced that given "x" amount of measures, then halving each measure yields twice the number of usable measures that can be used in support of national policy. Further, that those additional "measures" can make up for possible weaknesses in national policy. Soon, and you just watch, you'll see "quarter-assed measures"..."eight-assed" ..."thirty-second-assed". Solves the quantity and resupply issues too. We've transitioned from Clown World to Wolkenkuckucksheim. I am going to scout around and see if I can hijack a Novena. This needs an intercession or lightning bolts.
The reality of that simultaneously infuriates and saddens me. We are currently Dumbf***kistan and our enemies have seized their moment. More will follow suit.
We are being tested, and the results so far are not really encouraging (for us)... looking pretty good from the perspectives of Russia, China, Iran and their Houti minions. We need to engage - smoking holes where launchers and logistic structure used to be, but "we" the administration don't want to. More afraid of their actions when they should be afraid of ours. "We" the people afloat are ready, willing and know where and how... speaking for my son and others out there.
I'm becoming convinced that this will stop only when Iran is hit...hard. As in an effort to smash their air defenses, sink their navy, eliminate their coastal defense antiship missiles. Make it hurt.
Yes sir. That is the answer. Every military base, navel base, airport, and oil refinery. Tehran and every city the rats would flee to when Tehran starts blowing up. Make it hurt.
The problem with taking out the refineries is that gas and diesel prices will go up, and put more pressure on the economy. Since we didn't start building new refineries around 2010, we can't take up the slack.
EPA says "However, the newest refinery with significant downstream unit capacity is Marathon's facility in Garyville, Louisiana. That facility came online in 1977 with an initial atmospheric distillation unit capacity of 200,000 b/cd, and as of January 1, 2023, it had a capacity of 596,000 b/cd."
Okay. Now how would Iran & friends respond? Have we prepared to counter that response?
Our borders have been wide open for years, and millions of foreign men of military age are here now. Would it not be rational to expect their sleeper cells to attack our vulnerable infrastructure nodes?
Very much so, yes. I don't think most people in the "Attack Iran Yesterday" crowd are thinking about the second- or third-order effects resulting from such a strike.
Agree but based on our history the USA will have to get hit VERY hard first. And given the current leadership who would bet on it even then? This administration can’t even agree on addressing Hamas.
I prefer the bad things happen to bad people and sometimes they can't point the finger. They do it. Let's do it too. Like the unmanned car that shot up their head nuke guy. More of that so it scares them out of that game.
Totally agree. Iran is and has been the source/supplier of everything going on. We should certainly eliminate the Houthi problem so shipping can get back to normal. We should stop pestering Israel to play nice, and even suggest they turn up the heat and solve the Hamas problem permanently. THEN, we can turn to Iran. Smoke their navy, any military installation worth a missile (or ten), and the nuke sites as well. Lets have all the SSGNs go Wincester. Let our forces off the chain to do what they do. No sissy ROEs. Leave them with no military capabilities or production infrastructure. Leave them with the militant capabilities of a medium sized BoyScout troop. Destroy all the oil shipping facilities too. Then flip the script and WE close the gulf, to any Iranian exports, and make it known its permanent until theres regime change. Put them out of the oil business... and hopefully the Iranian people will tire of the mess the mullahs got them in.
Indeed, unfortunately, their maritime capability is marginal and really doesn't pose much of a threat, it does nevertheless need to be sent down to Davy Jones locker given their annoyance transiting the Stait of Hormuz. First up is their spy ship that's been sitting in the Bab al-Mandeb providing information to the Houthis. Secondly is whatever drone capability and infrastructure they have. Plenty of units going north to Russia, with a bunch going to the Houthis, I'm sure Hezbollah has a bunch and whatever Iraqi group that hasn't popped its head up too far. Lastly, knock-out a number of nuclear and IRGC locations.
At this point? I expect the Indian Navy will receive the best return on any munitions they expend. Why? Because in Jake Sullivan Biden has found the one man who is wrong more often and listens to him.
The Indian navy will end up becoming the de-facto leaders of Prosperity Garden.
Munitions wise? I hope the RIM, Sea Sparrow and 5" are being used as often as possible. But who here would be surprised if a more SM centric ROE has been issued by D.C. without regard to in-theatre replenishment ?
I believe they use an Israeli missile with ABM capabilities. We'll see if they're aggressive. Me thinks Modi is more aggressive than Biden in assertion of national will.
Just wondering - What are the supposed anti ship ballistic (not cruise) missiles? The Houthis obviously did not design and build their own SRBM capable of hitting a moving target. Iran allegedly has something that can hit a stationary naval target. And China of course has the DF21 that can supposedly hit a moving target.
Going out on a limb and guessing they are not firing DF21s. (And if they are...)
Remember, these are merchantmen. They broadcast AIS signals that give their exact course and position. Homing on a target that tells you where it is does not present a massive problem.
That the Superbugs were in action is a good sign. AMRAAMs should be more sustainable than SM’s. Seems like Obama 2.0 NatSec thinks you just park a CVN and maybe an SSGN in the area and that’s deterrence. Don’t actually fire any TLAMs, might really annoy Iran. Move Ike back to the Med, Vinson (around the corner in Singapore) to 5th AOR and let Ford go home. This is not sustainable the way it is. Still like to know where the VLS reload is going to happen. Rota, Souda?
AMRAAMs are much more economical, Aegis and Link 16 should be able to do the data handoff to any overhead CAP. Timing and positioning is the trick.
Other than steaming all the way over to Bahrain or, back to Souda, the only option I can see perhaps is Oman at their main base outside of Muscat. The RN long has had a presence there.
If you shoot enough rounds at someone, no matter how good the defense is, the odds are that eventually one will get through. Or the defender runs out of ammo. And then the ones behind that first hit are a lot more trouble.
If I thought this administration was capable of thinking in such terms, I would say that your last line item is what this whole thing has been leading up to--letting India take up the leadership role in policing the north Indian Ocean and the Horn of Africa in an effort to decrease our commitments and maybe getting them a bit more on-side in China containment.
Given their current track record, any such beneficial occurrence will be purely coincidental, not the result of any action on the administration's part.
Americans of Iranian background generally hate the Islamic Republic pretty universally. They also know the solution lies in the people of their homeland. Peace people and war people exist on both sides everywhere. Successfully planting peace can take a long time and can always be lost the next planting season.
You're not wrong about Jarrett however surmising her decision solely because of her background, shows you've not met many Persians or, gotten to know them. Jarret may be of Persian background but, her motivations are purely because she's a Leftist that's fully immersed in being an internationalist.
The vast majority of those who are Westernized, particialry Americans, have ZERO love for the theocrats currently in-charge and would be the first ones cheering any punitive action against the pillars of the Islamic Republic.
"The second worries me the most."
All of us here, ...as well!
Was involved on the periphery of logistics related issues for future conflicts for many years. Our logistics to fight major conflict in ANY theater were pretty much limited to "win fast and violently or lose". UKR has further drained our basic munitions stocks and further disrupted / delayed overdue maintenance schedules. Next weather window for big trouble in the Pacific is this coming spring. It's almost like we are being inflicted with a "death by a dozen slashes" approach. Whether it is by design or by accident, yes, war material and equipment stocks are being depleted, and no one seems overly concerned. Black swans are by definition unforseen, hope we aren't saying "a blind man could have seen that" in the near future.
I really hasn't though about the absolute super fastest approach. I've been looking at the fall weather window in terms of US domestic politics being used as a weapon.
The TAO’s and SWC’s are getting lots of training. That’s good. Knowing when to shoot and having the ROE and battle orders to commit is important. So is recognition differential. This looks like very good AIC / Airwing coordination. I wonder if they are establishing a ModLoc Red Crown or moving the Red Crown around a cordon? I also suspect the Chinese COSCO ships are gaining Intel on our air defense plans and tactics. At least three of our DDG’s are now green on the stoplight chart for readiness. (Don’t think they haven’t already reported that readiness to the Strike group / DESRON.
We need to immediately step up our punitive game. Houthis need to get the pee pee slapped like yesterday..
"our punitive game"
----------
It is beyond obvious to me that this is the fastest way to end this thing. And yet I have read no words emanating from any national government to the effect that this course of action is even being considered; much less about to be implemented.
They didn't teach that at Sullivan's school, the finest American Institution of Higher Plagiarism. And since that degree and his bootlicking skills are all he has...
Those Houthis have to rearm and refit somewhere, that's where you hit them, Israeli style.
Billy: Since you mentioned Israel, the Houthis are practicing at sea exactly the same strategy that Hamas and Hezbollah practice on land. Indescriminate firing of rockets, missiles or drones (whatever is available) with occasional targeted or lucky hits. Iran is the driving force behind all three proxy forces. The White House has been aiding and abetting Iran since January 21, 2009. No wonder that US military strategy in the Eastern Med, Red Sea and Gulf is "hands off" with regard to Iran and its three proxies.
Concur. Bad guys keep being bad guys until someone forcefully changes their mind.
While I am not for any un-thought-out precipitous action, pussyfooting around won't resolve the issue. If force doesn't change their minds then the force needs to remove their heads. The soup sandwich approach didn't work in CHAZ. It won't work in Yemen.
I have been asking for weeks why there isn't rockets/missiles being shot into launch sites. There is a plethora of methods for spotting launch sites, from drones to satellites. It should not be a difficult task.
Lack of guts, resolve and a sense that it will all blow over.
Obama/Sullivan/Blinken and the rest of the crew running our foreign policy are apparently convinced that the Iranians can be bribed into becoming our allies. Proof that Orwell knew what he was talking about when he said "There are some ideas so absurd that only an intellectual could believe them."
You are assuming that Biden's intentions are not more malignant. Biden is Obama's vessel.
Well, there is the school of thought that the entire plan is to get Iran nuclear weapons so they can solve the Jewish Question.
Not beyond Obama's or Biden's twisted minds.
I am afraid you are correct.
A bunch of pissants are testing one of the pillars of the rules based order (freedom of navigation) basically unchallenged. As Aurelien wrote in Substack:
"The western world is faced with a series of practical, political, economic and existential challenges as grave as any it has faced in its history, requiring highly competent governments, states and private sectors to deal with them successfully.
But the capacity of all the sectors mentioned above is already insufficient and getting worse, and there is no obvious way of correcting this.
Therefore things are heading South."
Here's a scenario that will make you warm and fuzzy inside. Picture coordinated SPEC OPS teams or CIA assets fixing the launch sites and bringing the heat. Fix 'em, paint that target, and call in the ordinance! We know where they are, get it done and stop hemorrhaging cash. SPEC OPS like this scare the shit out of those left behind. Fact.
WOOHOO!
Find the storage/staging areas and kill the technicians before the mobile launchers can move.
Yes, exactly. Let them prep for a launch configuration and paint them all at once. Take out every launch vehicle, every weapon, and all its operators. Call it in overwhelmingly to cover the egress. Launch simultaneous airstrikes against the logistics chain. Do it right once and it's unlikely you'll ever have to do it again.
And, take out any storage sites for reloads, and the ports through which they were delivered.
The departure points on the Iranian coast can be left for later, but everything hostile to shipping in Houthiland needs to be rubble ASAP. Quit swatting flys, clean up the dung piles where they are breeding.
With what?
"It should not be a difficult task."
If its not so difficult then tells us how it should be done.
Unless the US assigns a CVN or a bunch of land based tactical aircraft where are these magic missiles and rockets supposed to come from?
The US has ,right now, exactly 1 long distance surface attack weapons system suitable outside of the Airforce or a CVW: Tomahawk. By the time it arrives these launchers (analogous to HIMARS but with missiles and drones not range limited by a treaty) would be gone.
A reminder: Saudi Arabia tried for 6+- years to stop Houthi missiles and drones with a US equipped air force parked next door. They did not succeed.
I don’t know what you are in a snit about, I mentioned in the post you seem to have a problem with that drones and satellites are options also AWAC planes. Have you noticed there are several US Navy ships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden?
The drone/satellite/AWAC spots a launch and call in a F16 and they put ordinance on the target or a ship launches a tomahawk. No need for long range missiles, good old laser guided bombs work pretty well too.
If there was leadership in the White House and the military was interested in something other than dressing up in drag and changing everyone’s gender it could happen.
How old are you 14? Ask your dad or grandad how to fix it. It is not rocket science.
I watched Saudi up close, from the edge of the runway close, they didn’t want to stop them either. Six planes a day with 2 laser guided bombs each. Not real convincing.
So your answer is - you don't have an answer you just assume its not difficult.
Where is this magic F-16 coming from?
"Six planes a day with 2 laser guided bombs each"
Perhaps because finding and hitting the Houthis launchers isn't the easy thing you and others imagine?
Just looking for you to back up your assertion. So far you've said nothing convincing.
I don't play with BOTs.
Apparently you cant recognize one either.
The answer is Pershing II. Always was, always will be.
There are no Pershing 2s and haven't been in decades.
I know. 🥺
I seem to recall that a good portion of the USAF and USN plus various foreign air forces, with the aid of various Commando types, could not prevent the Iraqis from firing SCUDS into Israel.
Sadly, I think our global strategy is a firm commitment to half-measures on all fronts.
Yes, never enough to be decisive., just enough to be provocative.
Sadly, I think our global strategy is a firm commitment to half-assed measures on all fronts.
(FIFY)
I am now visualizing some wonk sporting a man bun and skinny jeans from a D.C. think tank has the White House staff convinced that given "x" amount of measures, then halving each measure yields twice the number of usable measures that can be used in support of national policy. Further, that those additional "measures" can make up for possible weaknesses in national policy. Soon, and you just watch, you'll see "quarter-assed measures"..."eight-assed" ..."thirty-second-assed". Solves the quantity and resupply issues too. We've transitioned from Clown World to Wolkenkuckucksheim. I am going to scout around and see if I can hijack a Novena. This needs an intercession or lightning bolts.
The reality of that simultaneously infuriates and saddens me. We are currently Dumbf***kistan and our enemies have seized their moment. More will follow suit.
We are being tested, and the results so far are not really encouraging (for us)... looking pretty good from the perspectives of Russia, China, Iran and their Houti minions. We need to engage - smoking holes where launchers and logistic structure used to be, but "we" the administration don't want to. More afraid of their actions when they should be afraid of ours. "We" the people afloat are ready, willing and know where and how... speaking for my son and others out there.
Mason, Carney, Hudner and Laboon skippers are all leading the FITREP 500! The other Captains are gonna be looking to get I the hunt too.
I'm becoming convinced that this will stop only when Iran is hit...hard. As in an effort to smash their air defenses, sink their navy, eliminate their coastal defense antiship missiles. Make it hurt.
Yes sir. That is the answer. Every military base, navel base, airport, and oil refinery. Tehran and every city the rats would flee to when Tehran starts blowing up. Make it hurt.
The problem with taking out the refineries is that gas and diesel prices will go up, and put more pressure on the economy. Since we didn't start building new refineries around 2010, we can't take up the slack.
Well, more like 1977.
EPA says "However, the newest refinery with significant downstream unit capacity is Marathon's facility in Garyville, Louisiana. That facility came online in 1977 with an initial atmospheric distillation unit capacity of 200,000 b/cd, and as of January 1, 2023, it had a capacity of 596,000 b/cd."
Iran doesn't have many refineries. Mostly they refine what they use, and ship crude...
Okay. Now how would Iran & friends respond? Have we prepared to counter that response?
Our borders have been wide open for years, and millions of foreign men of military age are here now. Would it not be rational to expect their sleeper cells to attack our vulnerable infrastructure nodes?
Which just illustrates the gaping wound on our southern border
Very much so, yes. I don't think most people in the "Attack Iran Yesterday" crowd are thinking about the second- or third-order effects resulting from such a strike.
Agree but based on our history the USA will have to get hit VERY hard first. And given the current leadership who would bet on it even then? This administration can’t even agree on addressing Hamas.
I prefer the bad things happen to bad people and sometimes they can't point the finger. They do it. Let's do it too. Like the unmanned car that shot up their head nuke guy. More of that so it scares them out of that game.
Totally agree. Iran is and has been the source/supplier of everything going on. We should certainly eliminate the Houthi problem so shipping can get back to normal. We should stop pestering Israel to play nice, and even suggest they turn up the heat and solve the Hamas problem permanently. THEN, we can turn to Iran. Smoke their navy, any military installation worth a missile (or ten), and the nuke sites as well. Lets have all the SSGNs go Wincester. Let our forces off the chain to do what they do. No sissy ROEs. Leave them with no military capabilities or production infrastructure. Leave them with the militant capabilities of a medium sized BoyScout troop. Destroy all the oil shipping facilities too. Then flip the script and WE close the gulf, to any Iranian exports, and make it known its permanent until theres regime change. Put them out of the oil business... and hopefully the Iranian people will tire of the mess the mullahs got them in.
Make America Scary Again !!!
Indeed, unfortunately, their maritime capability is marginal and really doesn't pose much of a threat, it does nevertheless need to be sent down to Davy Jones locker given their annoyance transiting the Stait of Hormuz. First up is their spy ship that's been sitting in the Bab al-Mandeb providing information to the Houthis. Secondly is whatever drone capability and infrastructure they have. Plenty of units going north to Russia, with a bunch going to the Houthis, I'm sure Hezbollah has a bunch and whatever Iraqi group that hasn't popped its head up too far. Lastly, knock-out a number of nuclear and IRGC locations.
That ship being still afloat is a testament to our lack of resolve.
I prefer to wipe out their proxies, Houthis, Palestinians, etc. Show any prospective proxy what the price is.
Don't forget mining Kharg Island and Bandar Abbas. Or smashing them too. How long to get replacement container cranes? Asking for an enemy ...
At this point? I expect the Indian Navy will receive the best return on any munitions they expend. Why? Because in Jake Sullivan Biden has found the one man who is wrong more often and listens to him.
The Indian navy will end up becoming the de-facto leaders of Prosperity Garden.
Munitions wise? I hope the RIM, Sea Sparrow and 5" are being used as often as possible. But who here would be surprised if a more SM centric ROE has been issued by D.C. without regard to in-theatre replenishment ?
Their gear can help, but won't get it done. If it could we'd see those Sa'ar 6 ships in the action already.
Aren't those Israeli hulls? The comment is about the Indian Navy.
And the Indian ships have similar Israeli radar and missiles.
I believe they use an Israeli missile with ABM capabilities. We'll see if they're aggressive. Me thinks Modi is more aggressive than Biden in assertion of national will.
Just wondering - What are the supposed anti ship ballistic (not cruise) missiles? The Houthis obviously did not design and build their own SRBM capable of hitting a moving target. Iran allegedly has something that can hit a stationary naval target. And China of course has the DF21 that can supposedly hit a moving target.
Going out on a limb and guessing they are not firing DF21s. (And if they are...)
See H.I. Sutton's video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e6PeA_Ixkz8
It's probably also on his web site, but I haven't looked.
Thanks. Looks like the Iranian ones with IR for terminal guidance. Or using targeting drones after forcing ships to stop.
Of course, it would be a pity if that Iranian surveillance ship mentioned at minute 10 were to happen across a rouge sea mine.
The sea is a harsh mistress. Ships can go missing so easily.
I don't think the PLAN is exporting DF21s.
Remember, these are merchantmen. They broadcast AIS signals that give their exact course and position. Homing on a target that tells you where it is does not present a massive problem.
The forlorn hope is that this whole event will magically be miracled away before we run out of ammo.
That the Superbugs were in action is a good sign. AMRAAMs should be more sustainable than SM’s. Seems like Obama 2.0 NatSec thinks you just park a CVN and maybe an SSGN in the area and that’s deterrence. Don’t actually fire any TLAMs, might really annoy Iran. Move Ike back to the Med, Vinson (around the corner in Singapore) to 5th AOR and let Ford go home. This is not sustainable the way it is. Still like to know where the VLS reload is going to happen. Rota, Souda?
AMRAAMs are much more economical, Aegis and Link 16 should be able to do the data handoff to any overhead CAP. Timing and positioning is the trick.
Other than steaming all the way over to Bahrain or, back to Souda, the only option I can see perhaps is Oman at their main base outside of Muscat. The RN long has had a presence there.
If you shoot enough rounds at someone, no matter how good the defense is, the odds are that eventually one will get through. Or the defender runs out of ammo. And then the ones behind that first hit are a lot more trouble.
If I thought this administration was capable of thinking in such terms, I would say that your last line item is what this whole thing has been leading up to--letting India take up the leadership role in policing the north Indian Ocean and the Horn of Africa in an effort to decrease our commitments and maybe getting them a bit more on-side in China containment.
Given their current track record, any such beneficial occurrence will be purely coincidental, not the result of any action on the administration's part.