Was involved on the periphery of logistics related issues for future conflicts for many years. Our logistics to fight major conflict in ANY theater were pretty much limited to "win fast and violently or lose". UKR has further drained our basic munitions stocks and further disrupted / delayed overdue maintenance schedules. Next weather window for big trouble in the Pacific is this coming spring. It's almost like we are being inflicted with a "death by a dozen slashes" approach. Whether it is by design or by accident, yes, war material and equipment stocks are being depleted, and no one seems overly concerned. Black swans are by definition unforseen, hope we aren't saying "a blind man could have seen that" in the near future.
The TAO’s and SWC’s are getting lots of training. That’s good. Knowing when to shoot and having the ROE and battle orders to commit is important. So is recognition differential. This looks like very good AIC / Airwing coordination. I wonder if they are establishing a ModLoc Red Crown or moving the Red Crown around a cordon? I also suspect the Chinese COSCO ships are gaining Intel on our air defense plans and tactics. At least three of our DDG’s are now green on the stoplight chart for readiness. (Don’t think they haven’t already reported that readiness to the Strike group / DESRON.
We need to immediately step up our punitive game. Houthis need to get the pee pee slapped like yesterday..
I have been asking for weeks why there isn't rockets/missiles being shot into launch sites. There is a plethora of methods for spotting launch sites, from drones to satellites. It should not be a difficult task.
We are being tested, and the results so far are not really encouraging (for us)... looking pretty good from the perspectives of Russia, China, Iran and their Houti minions. We need to engage - smoking holes where launchers and logistic structure used to be, but "we" the administration don't want to. More afraid of their actions when they should be afraid of ours. "We" the people afloat are ready, willing and know where and how... speaking for my son and others out there.
I'm becoming convinced that this will stop only when Iran is hit...hard. As in an effort to smash their air defenses, sink their navy, eliminate their coastal defense antiship missiles. Make it hurt.
At this point? I expect the Indian Navy will receive the best return on any munitions they expend. Why? Because in Jake Sullivan Biden has found the one man who is wrong more often and listens to him.
The Indian navy will end up becoming the de-facto leaders of Prosperity Garden.
Munitions wise? I hope the RIM, Sea Sparrow and 5" are being used as often as possible. But who here would be surprised if a more SM centric ROE has been issued by D.C. without regard to in-theatre replenishment ?
Just wondering - What are the supposed anti ship ballistic (not cruise) missiles? The Houthis obviously did not design and build their own SRBM capable of hitting a moving target. Iran allegedly has something that can hit a stationary naval target. And China of course has the DF21 that can supposedly hit a moving target.
Going out on a limb and guessing they are not firing DF21s. (And if they are...)
That the Superbugs were in action is a good sign. AMRAAMs should be more sustainable than SM’s. Seems like Obama 2.0 NatSec thinks you just park a CVN and maybe an SSGN in the area and that’s deterrence. Don’t actually fire any TLAMs, might really annoy Iran. Move Ike back to the Med, Vinson (around the corner in Singapore) to 5th AOR and let Ford go home. This is not sustainable the way it is. Still like to know where the VLS reload is going to happen. Rota, Souda?
If you shoot enough rounds at someone, no matter how good the defense is, the odds are that eventually one will get through. Or the defender runs out of ammo. And then the ones behind that first hit are a lot more trouble.
If I thought this administration was capable of thinking in such terms, I would say that your last line item is what this whole thing has been leading up to--letting India take up the leadership role in policing the north Indian Ocean and the Horn of Africa in an effort to decrease our commitments and maybe getting them a bit more on-side in China containment.
Given their current track record, any such beneficial occurrence will be purely coincidental, not the result of any action on the administration's part.
The return address is not the Houthi, but their sponsors. We know the economic pressure points for their sponsors; failure to act lies at the feet of National Command Authority.
"The second worries me the most."
All of us here, ...as well!
Was involved on the periphery of logistics related issues for future conflicts for many years. Our logistics to fight major conflict in ANY theater were pretty much limited to "win fast and violently or lose". UKR has further drained our basic munitions stocks and further disrupted / delayed overdue maintenance schedules. Next weather window for big trouble in the Pacific is this coming spring. It's almost like we are being inflicted with a "death by a dozen slashes" approach. Whether it is by design or by accident, yes, war material and equipment stocks are being depleted, and no one seems overly concerned. Black swans are by definition unforseen, hope we aren't saying "a blind man could have seen that" in the near future.
The TAO’s and SWC’s are getting lots of training. That’s good. Knowing when to shoot and having the ROE and battle orders to commit is important. So is recognition differential. This looks like very good AIC / Airwing coordination. I wonder if they are establishing a ModLoc Red Crown or moving the Red Crown around a cordon? I also suspect the Chinese COSCO ships are gaining Intel on our air defense plans and tactics. At least three of our DDG’s are now green on the stoplight chart for readiness. (Don’t think they haven’t already reported that readiness to the Strike group / DESRON.
We need to immediately step up our punitive game. Houthis need to get the pee pee slapped like yesterday..
Those Houthis have to rearm and refit somewhere, that's where you hit them, Israeli style.
I have been asking for weeks why there isn't rockets/missiles being shot into launch sites. There is a plethora of methods for spotting launch sites, from drones to satellites. It should not be a difficult task.
Sadly, I think our global strategy is a firm commitment to half-measures on all fronts.
We are being tested, and the results so far are not really encouraging (for us)... looking pretty good from the perspectives of Russia, China, Iran and their Houti minions. We need to engage - smoking holes where launchers and logistic structure used to be, but "we" the administration don't want to. More afraid of their actions when they should be afraid of ours. "We" the people afloat are ready, willing and know where and how... speaking for my son and others out there.
Mason, Carney, Hudner and Laboon skippers are all leading the FITREP 500! The other Captains are gonna be looking to get I the hunt too.
I'm becoming convinced that this will stop only when Iran is hit...hard. As in an effort to smash their air defenses, sink their navy, eliminate their coastal defense antiship missiles. Make it hurt.
At this point? I expect the Indian Navy will receive the best return on any munitions they expend. Why? Because in Jake Sullivan Biden has found the one man who is wrong more often and listens to him.
The Indian navy will end up becoming the de-facto leaders of Prosperity Garden.
Munitions wise? I hope the RIM, Sea Sparrow and 5" are being used as often as possible. But who here would be surprised if a more SM centric ROE has been issued by D.C. without regard to in-theatre replenishment ?
Just wondering - What are the supposed anti ship ballistic (not cruise) missiles? The Houthis obviously did not design and build their own SRBM capable of hitting a moving target. Iran allegedly has something that can hit a stationary naval target. And China of course has the DF21 that can supposedly hit a moving target.
Going out on a limb and guessing they are not firing DF21s. (And if they are...)
The forlorn hope is that this whole event will magically be miracled away before we run out of ammo.
That the Superbugs were in action is a good sign. AMRAAMs should be more sustainable than SM’s. Seems like Obama 2.0 NatSec thinks you just park a CVN and maybe an SSGN in the area and that’s deterrence. Don’t actually fire any TLAMs, might really annoy Iran. Move Ike back to the Med, Vinson (around the corner in Singapore) to 5th AOR and let Ford go home. This is not sustainable the way it is. Still like to know where the VLS reload is going to happen. Rota, Souda?
If you shoot enough rounds at someone, no matter how good the defense is, the odds are that eventually one will get through. Or the defender runs out of ammo. And then the ones behind that first hit are a lot more trouble.
If I thought this administration was capable of thinking in such terms, I would say that your last line item is what this whole thing has been leading up to--letting India take up the leadership role in policing the north Indian Ocean and the Horn of Africa in an effort to decrease our commitments and maybe getting them a bit more on-side in China containment.
Given their current track record, any such beneficial occurrence will be purely coincidental, not the result of any action on the administration's part.
The return address is not the Houthi, but their sponsors. We know the economic pressure points for their sponsors; failure to act lies at the feet of National Command Authority.