China Goes a'Shouldering in the South China Sea
another click of the ratchet
Shouldering has a long tradition among navies that have, well, disagreements about who should or should not be in certain waters.
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has not been shy about being a bully on the seas, particularly against its neighbor to the southeast, the Philippines. It so happens that the Philippines is a treaty ally of the USA. As such, this situation needs to be in our scan.
Via The Guardian:
China claims the Sabina Shoal, which is located 140km (86 miles) west of the Philippine island of Palawan, the closest major land mass. It is more than 1,000km from China’s nearest major landmass, Hainan island.
Manila and Beijing have stationed coast guard vessels around the shoal in recent months, with the Philippines fearing China is about to build an artificial island there.
Footage purporting to show the incident attributed to the Chinese coast guard and shared by state broadcaster CCTV showed one ship, identified as a Philippine vessel by the Beijing side, apparently running into the left side of a Chinese ship before moving on.
Another 15-second clip appears to show the Chinese vessel making contact with the rear of the Philippine ship. Captions alongside the footage claimed the Philippine ship made a “sudden change of direction” and caused the crash.
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…the Philippines’ BRP Cape Engano sustained a 13cm (five-inch) hole in its right beam after “aggressive manoeuvres” by a China coast guard vessel caused a collision.
A second Philippine coast guard ship, the BRP Bagacay, was “rammed twice” by a China coast guard vessel about 15 minutes later and suffered “minor structural damage”, Malaya said.
You can follow the links above for more video, or the other videos at the bottom of the post.
To really hoist onboard the gobsmacking audaciousness of the PRC, you need to soak in, as always, the appropriate chart-work:
China claims the Sabina Shoal, which is located 140km (86 miles) west of the Philippine island of Palawan, the closest major land mass. It is more than 1,000km from China’s nearest major landmass, Hainan island.
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Analysts have said Beijing’s aim is to push towards Sabina Shoal from the neighbouring Second Thomas Shoal, encroaching on Manila’s exclusive economic zone and normalising Chinese control of the area.
The situation has echoes of 2012, when Beijing took control of Scarborough Shoal, another strategic area of the South China Sea closest to the Philippines.
Bit by bit, shoal by shoal, the PRC is executing an imperial land grab out in the open for all to see.
Where are the protests? Where is the international community? Most are either scared or bought off, that’s where.
Bullies are encouraged by weakness. We need to continue to show the plucky Philippines we have their back.
“Bullies are encouraged by weakness.” And this bully sees the Republican of the Philippines as physically weaker than themselves and the US as morally and philosophically weaker than themselves. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to learn that their plans are based in part on US political polls.
Human behavior 101, you get more of what you reward, and less of what you punish. A bully getting no pushback, will be encouraged, and escalate their behavior. You have an aging authoritarian leader with concerns about his legacy (a major cultural influence on behavior), a stated goal of reintegrating a "rogue province", lots of regional players with long standing distrust and, indeed hatred of each other (China, Japan, Korea, Indonesia and the Philippines all have really bad history), and the U.S. with declining power and a very uncertain commitment to the region (formal treaties notwithstanding) and a imminent major election. Check all of these boxes in your favor, and you will be the dominant regional power, whether the region like it or not. The application of chaos theory to this region, much less the rest of the globe, is the stuff of dystopian prepper novels...give me a Tom Clancy novel, where the good guys win, bad guy gets capped, and we all live happ...well, stay alive at least.