“Bullies are encouraged by weakness.” And this bully sees the Republican of the Philippines as physically weaker than themselves and the US as morally and philosophically weaker than themselves. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to learn that their plans are based in part on US political polls.
PRC has intractable issues which work against global power.
The most important is history. Mainland China has always eschewed international competition, preferring to look inward.
When it was powerful, China manipulated neighbors and extracted tribute. When weak, it paid tribute. If overrun, the body politic accepted new rulers. It then renamed, Sinicized, and simply outlasted them. See the Mongol ‘Yuan” dynasty, and Ming restoration. The Ming even sent out Zheng He’s fleet to traverse the South Sea and Indian Ocean. It returned treasure-laden and curiosity-sated, never again to venture out.
In that context, Mao was just another interloper. His “cultural revolution” was an effort to disprove the traditional saying: “the mountains are high, and the emperor is far away.” When the uproar was over and the damage done, technicians rebuilt as they always have after earthquakes and revolutions.
Today, PRC has caught up to the 20th century, but unevenly.
Mainland industrialized, produces low-cost, low-value-added goods, It must either import expensive components or steal technology.
The workforce is aging, and is not being replaced. Industry is losing skills. Productivity is not improving as it is in the West. That means the elderly are an increasing burden. without significant offset.
PRC must import food. In the heartland, there is not enough arable land or water to feed the people. For industrialization, PRC has missed Borlaug’s “Green Revolution.”
PRC failed to populate the western areas. New cities were built, of low quality. These now lie unoccupied, slowly reclaimed by the desert.
There is no easy fix to the structural challenges, Ahistorical claims will not distract from the urgent needs. Taiwan in context. The Middle Kingdom must find a middle place among the nations.
When a nation of any size or comport has internal issues of significance (a birth rate that is below replacement levels) and an economy that is fragile, what to do? Aggressively create distractions and get the attention on the outside of your nation and not people looking inward at it. If you are leaders of a nation of some 1.4 billion people and say only 400 million are true believers in your system of government than you have a problem of 1 billion potential dissidents. So go on a military spending spree. Sound familiar? Ought to sound familiar, it’s been going for about 2000 years. That said our navy is stretched thin, our ship building stretched further. So meeting the South China Sea challenges AND keeping other logistically important sea lanes open is more difficult. Using million dollar munitions to knock down $100k drones is not very efficient. The Battle of tbe Red Sea is proving that the case. In all of it give the CCP credit, they obviously have read the Monroe Doctrine and studied it. Perhaps we ought have our political and military leaders re-read it as well.
The current administration is just following several decades of bipartisan precedent. Billions for Ukraine and pennies for our Pacific friends and allies.
Human behavior 101, you get more of what you reward, and less of what you punish. A bully getting no pushback, will be encouraged, and escalate their behavior. You have an aging authoritarian leader with concerns about his legacy (a major cultural influence on behavior), a stated goal of reintegrating a "rogue province", lots of regional players with long standing distrust and, indeed hatred of each other (China, Japan, Korea, Indonesia and the Philippines all have really bad history), and the U.S. with declining power and a very uncertain commitment to the region (formal treaties notwithstanding) and a imminent major election. Check all of these boxes in your favor, and you will be the dominant regional power, whether the region like it or not. The application of chaos theory to this region, much less the rest of the globe, is the stuff of dystopian prepper novels...give me a Tom Clancy novel, where the good guys win, bad guy gets capped, and we all live happ...well, stay alive at least.
I also thought that, while the Tarawa sink-ex was useful, maybe she could've been "sunk" next to our old LST the Phillipinos are constantly struggling to resupply...
Hmmm. what is needed are some aircraft that can monitor the situation and make real-time video of what's really happening.....lingering for weeks at a time, seeing all...and big enough to be SEEN seeing all. Able to hover and BIG enough to plant a shadow over PLAN vessels....and armed well enough to make the point....
Plausible deniability. It could just be ice hardening to support their friend up north. Soon the PLAN and their CG will have more breakers and ice hardened vessels than the US. (Not that anyone in DC will care)
This is only going to continue until we stop allowing it to. It's past time to show we are a true ally to PI, and help them. Send a few ships, and cover their LST resupply. Put ourselves between the good guys and bad guys. And allow our COs to be aggressive. Hold a course, and swap some paint as needed. "Rubbin is racin", or in this case, it's showing you care.
I don't think there'd be much escalation if we communicated that we would no longer allow our ally to be bullied, and then have 100% follow thru...
International Maritime Law is vaguely worded on intentional ramming of other ships as not being a War Crime! Ramming over a boat full of pirates armed with pop guns technology isn’t considered a war crime! The CCP government see’s the PN operating in the SCS as “ Pirates” and there PN ships armed with “Pop Guns”! It remains to be seen what the Philippines government is or isn’t likely to do about it, that doesn’t involve an under the table negotiation with the CCP…
Mother Pucker!
“Bullies are encouraged by weakness.” And this bully sees the Republican of the Philippines as physically weaker than themselves and the US as morally and philosophically weaker than themselves. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to learn that their plans are based in part on US political polls.
There entire plan is based on the election timeline more than outcome. Watch and see.
The ratcheting is sure to increase in scope, frequency, and severity. Power won't abide a vacuum.
PRC has intractable issues which work against global power.
The most important is history. Mainland China has always eschewed international competition, preferring to look inward.
When it was powerful, China manipulated neighbors and extracted tribute. When weak, it paid tribute. If overrun, the body politic accepted new rulers. It then renamed, Sinicized, and simply outlasted them. See the Mongol ‘Yuan” dynasty, and Ming restoration. The Ming even sent out Zheng He’s fleet to traverse the South Sea and Indian Ocean. It returned treasure-laden and curiosity-sated, never again to venture out.
In that context, Mao was just another interloper. His “cultural revolution” was an effort to disprove the traditional saying: “the mountains are high, and the emperor is far away.” When the uproar was over and the damage done, technicians rebuilt as they always have after earthquakes and revolutions.
Today, PRC has caught up to the 20th century, but unevenly.
Mainland industrialized, produces low-cost, low-value-added goods, It must either import expensive components or steal technology.
The workforce is aging, and is not being replaced. Industry is losing skills. Productivity is not improving as it is in the West. That means the elderly are an increasing burden. without significant offset.
PRC must import food. In the heartland, there is not enough arable land or water to feed the people. For industrialization, PRC has missed Borlaug’s “Green Revolution.”
PRC failed to populate the western areas. New cities were built, of low quality. These now lie unoccupied, slowly reclaimed by the desert.
There is no easy fix to the structural challenges, Ahistorical claims will not distract from the urgent needs. Taiwan in context. The Middle Kingdom must find a middle place among the nations.
When a nation of any size or comport has internal issues of significance (a birth rate that is below replacement levels) and an economy that is fragile, what to do? Aggressively create distractions and get the attention on the outside of your nation and not people looking inward at it. If you are leaders of a nation of some 1.4 billion people and say only 400 million are true believers in your system of government than you have a problem of 1 billion potential dissidents. So go on a military spending spree. Sound familiar? Ought to sound familiar, it’s been going for about 2000 years. That said our navy is stretched thin, our ship building stretched further. So meeting the South China Sea challenges AND keeping other logistically important sea lanes open is more difficult. Using million dollar munitions to knock down $100k drones is not very efficient. The Battle of tbe Red Sea is proving that the case. In all of it give the CCP credit, they obviously have read the Monroe Doctrine and studied it. Perhaps we ought have our political and military leaders re-read it as well.
Is US the school marm who will nip the bully?
Not under the current Administration.
The current administration is just following several decades of bipartisan precedent. Billions for Ukraine and pennies for our Pacific friends and allies.
and even less for our own borders
Human behavior 101, you get more of what you reward, and less of what you punish. A bully getting no pushback, will be encouraged, and escalate their behavior. You have an aging authoritarian leader with concerns about his legacy (a major cultural influence on behavior), a stated goal of reintegrating a "rogue province", lots of regional players with long standing distrust and, indeed hatred of each other (China, Japan, Korea, Indonesia and the Philippines all have really bad history), and the U.S. with declining power and a very uncertain commitment to the region (formal treaties notwithstanding) and a imminent major election. Check all of these boxes in your favor, and you will be the dominant regional power, whether the region like it or not. The application of chaos theory to this region, much less the rest of the globe, is the stuff of dystopian prepper novels...give me a Tom Clancy novel, where the good guys win, bad guy gets capped, and we all live happ...well, stay alive at least.
"Where are the protests? Where is the international community? Most are either scared or bought off, that’s where."
Bullseye
Too bad our BBs are all gone. We could transfer one to the Philippine Coast Guard (a'la Goeben-Turkey). Try and shoulder that PRC!
we should give them all our decommissioned LCS for them to park on reefs and shoals. Better than a rusted out LST
There's a thought!!
they may not run, but they float and have bunks
Hm. Bolt on some sharp edged iron and "Lend" 3-4 to the PI. When running they're faster and can turn sharper than the PRC ships.
When running
I wouldn't count too much on that floating thing.
Barracks barges would be better. We are building them at a fairly fast clip right now.
It would be good to have a couple of DDGs just over the horizon next time these PH missions are attempted.
No better time than the present to confront it, either to stop it or provide an unmistakable signal to prepare for more confrontation.
National Security Cutters. But we need to give them some fangs and claws real quick. NSM/ MH-60R or S and swap that CWIS for RAM or Searam.
It appears to be a good time for a joint mine warfare exercise...
Or random Mk48s from an unknown source...!!
I also thought that, while the Tarawa sink-ex was useful, maybe she could've been "sunk" next to our old LST the Phillipinos are constantly struggling to resupply...
Hmmm. what is needed are some aircraft that can monitor the situation and make real-time video of what's really happening.....lingering for weeks at a time, seeing all...and big enough to be SEEN seeing all. Able to hover and BIG enough to plant a shadow over PLAN vessels....and armed well enough to make the point....
This article is about 3 years old but fits this discussion.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2021/01/15/huge-new-chinese-ships-are-made-for-ramming/
Plausible deniability. It could just be ice hardening to support their friend up north. Soon the PLAN and their CG will have more breakers and ice hardened vessels than the US. (Not that anyone in DC will care)
Well, if they have one that works I think they win.
This is only going to continue until we stop allowing it to. It's past time to show we are a true ally to PI, and help them. Send a few ships, and cover their LST resupply. Put ourselves between the good guys and bad guys. And allow our COs to be aggressive. Hold a course, and swap some paint as needed. "Rubbin is racin", or in this case, it's showing you care.
I don't think there'd be much escalation if we communicated that we would no longer allow our ally to be bullied, and then have 100% follow thru...
“We need to continue to show the plucky Philippines we have their back.”
We don’t even have our own people’s backs.
International Maritime Law is vaguely worded on intentional ramming of other ships as not being a War Crime! Ramming over a boat full of pirates armed with pop guns technology isn’t considered a war crime! The CCP government see’s the PN operating in the SCS as “ Pirates” and there PN ships armed with “Pop Guns”! It remains to be seen what the Philippines government is or isn’t likely to do about it, that doesn’t involve an under the table negotiation with the CCP…