China Moves on the Cook Islands

another piece of red, left my atlas, today

Anyone who thinks this is benign is a fool.

As always, let’s go to the chartroom.

So, what you have above is the great circle route from San Diego to Sydney, Australia.

In the upper-left corner below you can see a zoom-in of the great circle. The perpendicular line is the closest distance from The Cook Islands, 1,000 nautical miles (nm) away. The roughly parallel line is the great circle route to Auckland, New Zealand that passes only 275nm from the Cook Islands.

The thinner red line in the bottom-right-hand corner of the image represents the great circle route from French Polynesia to Auckland, New Zealand.

“The Cook Islands?”, you ask.

The Cook Islands (Rarotongan: Kūki ‘Airani;^[6] Penrhyn: Kūki Airani^[7]) is an island country in Polynesia, part of Oceania in the South Pacific Ocean. It consists of 15 islands whose total land area is approximately 236.7 square kilometres (91 sq mi). The Cook Islands' Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) covers 1,960,027 square kilometres (756,771 sq mi) of ocean. Avarua is its capital.

The Cook Islands is self-governing while in free association with New Zealand. Since the start of the 21st century, the Cook Islands has directed its own independent foreign and defence policy, and also has its own customs regulations. Like most members of the Pacific Islands Forum, it has no armed forces, but the Cook Islands Police Service owns a Guardian Class Patrol Boat, CIPPB Te Kukupa II, provided by Australia, in order to police its waters. In recent decades, the Cook Islands have adopted an increasingly assertive and distinct foreign policy, and a Cook Islander, Henry Puna, served as Secretary General of the Pacific Islands Forum from 2021 to 2024. Most Cook Islanders are also citizens of New Zealand, but they also have the status of Cook Islands nationals, which is not given to other New Zealand citizens. The Cook Islands have been an active member of the Pacific Community since 1980.

Why should we care about this scattering of islands with 15,000 or so souls?

Well, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), whose capital Beijing is 5,900 nm away and major port of Shanghai is 5,500 nm. Aukland is 1,600 nm away, Sydney is 2,600 nm away, and San Diego is 4,000 nm away.

Shouldn’t be all that much of an interest to the PRC, should it?

The Cook Islands prime minister will agree on a plan for a strategic partnership with China on a state visit starting Monday, his office has confirmed, despite a public rebuke from close partner New Zealand.

Prime Minister Mark Brown will lead a delegation to China on a five-day visit during which the two sides will seal a Joint Action Plan for Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, his office said.

The trip is going ahead in defiance of a warning from New Zealand that it should be consulted on international agreements that have significant strategic and security implications.

China is vying for diplomatic, economic and military influence in the strategically important Pacific region, challenging the historic sway of the United States, New Zealand and Australia.

…

The Cook Islands, a self-governing South Pacific nation of about 17,000 people, has a "free association" agreement with New Zealand, which provides it with budgetary support and help on foreign affairs and defence.

Under the agreement with New Zealand, of which it was once a dependent territory, the Cook Islands' people are New Zealand citizens.

On Wednesday, a spokesperson for New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters said his country did not "see eye to eye" with the Cook Islands government on a range of issues.

This is part of a larger pattern we discussed 2.5 years ago, again a year later, and last six months ago.

The PRC wants to be the primary power in the Pacific. She is patient. She sees all hills worth fighting for. She isn’t playing the game by our modern rules, but she is playing.