It's a long time since I read Buchan's _Greenmantle_, but I remember (in a general way) his American character John Blenkiron discussing the potential uses of water as a weapon on the Western Front in a matter-of-fact and frankly chilling way.
"The fact is that without water from the Dnieper river, which now the peninsula is guaranteed not to receive, at least in the next 10 years, there is a gradual penetration of sea water into aquifers. At the moment, in many cities of the Crimea, wells with a depth of 800 meters or more, used to supply the population with water, already have an excessive level of salts. "
So, we don't know for sure who is responsible. I don't see how it aids the Russians for them to have potentially destroyed the water supply to the North Crimean Canal which provides irrigation to most of Crimea. Crimea can't be a bread basket without irrigation water.
It is the responsibility of a military to be prepared to deter and develop plans to engage when deterrence fails. We’re simply making commentary in that fashion.
It is interesting when you look at the fortifications of the Russians in Ukraine that they are thinnest around Donetsk (city). A drive centered on the SE of the city leads to a major road nexus behind the city and would allow a mobile attack to surround and cut it off (for security) as the attack proceeds SE toward Rostov-on-Don in Russia - truly cutting through to the Sea of Azov and cutting off Russian forces...maybe being able to take the OTHER end of the Kerch Bridge. At least long enough to make things tough in Crimea as they turn back to attack there. One has to think that this attack would draw Russian forces from other areas of the battlefield entrenchments to respond, letting the Ukrainians in place in those areas advance in a general offensive.
Now, throw in bombing the dam...and you cut off Russian reinforcements to the Don and isolate the battlefield.
Reports were that western donated Leopards were staging in the areas south of Kherson. Russian defenses were away from the flood plain projections due to early threat assessments of Ukraine blowing the dams. It was threatened last spring. What it means now regardless of who blew the dams? Russia can move defense forces north along the LOC to threaten and finally take Kharkov. Ukraine won’t need to jeopardize her newly donated armor and can buy sometime to train. The area is more valuable to Russia but I believe it was expected that Ukraine would blow them.
The action also denies Russian ability to advance into Kherson. The mud in that area will be inhospitable to armor and wheeled vehicles for a while now. Takes the pressure off of Ukraine to “launch an offensive”. In the end: Russia will prevail and rebuild the dam.
They'll still be launching on offensive, it was never going to be in Kherson. The geography, roadways, and impediments are too many WITHOUT the preparations by the Russians. Only one main road to get through the marshes and down into lower Crimea once you cross? Nope...wasn't going to be there.
The Russians might be looking to move troops out of the Kherson AO, but it also allows the Ukrainians to do the same. I don't get why people focus on this like it is the crossing of the Rhine in WWII. The Ukrainians are ALREADY on the other side of the river, just upstream, and always have been. It only prevents localized battles and threat vector of a crossing (a dicey thing as wide as the river was and now is).
No, the question is where the Ukrainians will try to breach the Russian line. They are looking for someplace thin and are probing multiple areas to keep the Russians honest and unable to concentrate forces. Multiple intelligence reports say the Russians have not been able to put together a mobile reaction force in reserve due to manpower and equipment shortages. So the Ukrainians are spreading them out in the trenches and will hit them with a hammer. If they can break through, and have the forces and logistics to follow up and enlarge the gap, they could well unhinge the entire Russian position for a considerable area by rolling up the flanks.
The key is to get them out of the trenches, get them retreating, and not give them any respite - that is why the fuel, ammo, and food must keep up!
Not going to happen. Ukraine is literally on its 3rd iteration of an army and no longer lacks a coherent command and control. Russia is choosing the battlefield.
Hmmmm....well, you must have a different and very confidential information source telling you something different than what everyone else is saying. Of course if you are listening to Al Jazeera, the Asian Times, or somebody blogging out of St. Petersburg....probably should take it with a large grain of salt. What I go by is things we can see (such as the lack of competence and inability to execute combined arms actions, replenishment and logistics by the Russians), the loss of equipment by Russia (verified by geolocated photos by third parties), and the fact that Russia invaded a country 1/10 of its size, got its butt whipped, and has lost most of the territory it had gained since February of last year.
So, yeah, Russia chose the battlefield...and their army is dying on it.
I remember how excited you were about Russia's supposed winter offensive. Back when you were frothing at the mouth and spouting nonsense about Poland annexing parts of Ukraine after their army collapsed.
Instead the Russian offensive was crushed after achieving nothing - as expected.
Per your last comment, I envision that any thoughts of taking out the Three Gorges Dam is off the table for environmental reasons plus the negative publicity we would get from that destruction. We had the opportunity to bomb the dam and dike network in North Vietnam and passed. That was during a time long before we got so environmentally sensitive and worried about collateral damage. I don't see it even as being on the table.
War has its own logic. After the PRC sunk a few CVN and a large deck amphib or two, and there are tens of thousands of dead at sea and ashore, the decision matrix will be a lot different.
Apropos of nothing, I saw no Anglo-Saxon or Euro-ish names in that link. And when I clicked the second image to view it completely, it looked like garbage cans holding the Decision Databases. Beyond my ken, I think...dropped out in '65, GED in '66. I am not sure that I am enlightened. Or maybe I am. Anyway, thanks for the feedback.
I mean you try to be the President in September 2001 with nearly 3,000 dead and try to convince the country not to invade Afghanistan. You'd be impeached in a week.
Yes, a President has got to do what a President has got to do to stay politically viable. I was firmly behind getting some massive payback but it dragged on 2 decades and ended in shame. I was out on a road inspecting the paving of a dirt road with asphalt when the 1st and 2nd Tower strikes happened. Everyone on the crew wanted blood. Those of us old, fat veterans and retirees wanted to go back on active duty. I wanted to loose Tomahawks and shell coasts again. Am sure that Bush is happy that people now remember Biden for that war.
While I agree with your comment that the decision matrix would be a lot different, I don't see us having such plans in place at the present. In general, since WW II we have worried about collateral damage and have not targeted civilians or non-military targets.
You realize, I hope, for decades we have had plans for a general nuclear that saw no difference between civ and mil. Early on, our SLBM were called city busters for a reason. Again, war has its own logic. It may take you places you would not want to go. This has been true for thousands of years and will be for thousands more.
Greg Myre is full of menhaden chum. ZNPP has had all of its reactors shutdown for months. They are only doing decay heat removal. ZNPP has a dedicated cooling reservoir that is not contiguous with the river. Makeup water is pumped into the reservoir from the river as needed. Now, as long as it remains intact......... Anyway, here is the IAEA update. https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/iaea-director-general-statement-to-the-iaea-board-of-governors
Luckily it isn't too hard to plan a strike on such a large and vulnerable target. If the politicos have forced it "off" the target list for now it can easily be put back on when feelings change.
The scenario already envisioned a hot war between the US and China that was already expanding horizontally. I'd also assume that in such a scenario the US and China were already trading conventional mainland shots and we're looking for alt COAs to inflict pain while not going nuclear. It's a crap place to be but even in those scenarios you need a plan.
It was to the benefit of Ukraine, that's why they're releasing water from upstream the destroyed dam. This allows them to remove personnel from defensive positions on Kherson to support their offensive.
This event has not appeared in any of the papers I read. Hm. Anyway, wonder if there will be as cool a march composed for this as there was for the Dambusters movie?
"But do you see the mountain of skulls?"
"As ye sow, so shall ye reap." I read that somewhere.
It's written in the rules of Land Warfare under "Reprisals" if the enemy does it we can do it back legally.
It's a long time since I read Buchan's _Greenmantle_, but I remember (in a general way) his American character John Blenkiron discussing the potential uses of water as a weapon on the Western Front in a matter-of-fact and frankly chilling way.
https://archive.org/details/greenmantle_0709_librivox
https://www.gutenberg.org/files/559/559-h/559-h.htm
Synopsis:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenmantle?wprov=sfti1
Let the water flow...
Another vulnerable area is the entire Crimean area water system.
It’s toast. The input was from the reservoir.
https://east-fruit.com/en/news/russian-terrorists-destroyed-horticulture-of-southern-ukraine-overnight/
"The fact is that without water from the Dnieper river, which now the peninsula is guaranteed not to receive, at least in the next 10 years, there is a gradual penetration of sea water into aquifers. At the moment, in many cities of the Crimea, wells with a depth of 800 meters or more, used to supply the population with water, already have an excessive level of salts. "
Good Info/Intel thanks!
That was where Crimea gets it's water.
So it was a Ukraine Ops?
Well it floods the counter attack terrain, so it was an RU strike?
It makes the war last longer so maybe it was NATO/US/EU?
Germany stated it was in a war with Russia, so maybe it was Germany?
Maybe.....................the already damaged and less well maintained dam just broke on it's on.
We have to pick our poison.
Reap what one sows.
Although I increasingly fear the end of this war will be an intervention
Lord I hope not I have military aged grandsons.
So, we don't know for sure who is responsible. I don't see how it aids the Russians for them to have potentially destroyed the water supply to the North Crimean Canal which provides irrigation to most of Crimea. Crimea can't be a bread basket without irrigation water.
"A 2015 study found that the canal had been providing 85% of Crimea's water prior to the 2014 shutdown." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Crimean_Canal
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kakhovka_Reservoir
VOA from last July. Apparently the dam was a intact river crossing point for RUS movement of men and material. It isn't any more! https://www.voanews.com/a/latest-developments-in-ukraine-july-8/6650157.html
Are you insane? Casual talk about taking on both Russia and China makes you a candidate for an assylum.
Looks at Washington DC and thinks.........mental hospital.
It is the responsibility of a military to be prepared to deter and develop plans to engage when deterrence fails. We’re simply making commentary in that fashion.
Sometime the plans take on a life of their own as they did in 1914
If you fail to plan, plan to fail. Alternative deliberate COAs are always needed.
It is interesting when you look at the fortifications of the Russians in Ukraine that they are thinnest around Donetsk (city). A drive centered on the SE of the city leads to a major road nexus behind the city and would allow a mobile attack to surround and cut it off (for security) as the attack proceeds SE toward Rostov-on-Don in Russia - truly cutting through to the Sea of Azov and cutting off Russian forces...maybe being able to take the OTHER end of the Kerch Bridge. At least long enough to make things tough in Crimea as they turn back to attack there. One has to think that this attack would draw Russian forces from other areas of the battlefield entrenchments to respond, letting the Ukrainians in place in those areas advance in a general offensive.
Now, throw in bombing the dam...and you cut off Russian reinforcements to the Don and isolate the battlefield.
It could happen!
Reports were that western donated Leopards were staging in the areas south of Kherson. Russian defenses were away from the flood plain projections due to early threat assessments of Ukraine blowing the dams. It was threatened last spring. What it means now regardless of who blew the dams? Russia can move defense forces north along the LOC to threaten and finally take Kharkov. Ukraine won’t need to jeopardize her newly donated armor and can buy sometime to train. The area is more valuable to Russia but I believe it was expected that Ukraine would blow them.
The action also denies Russian ability to advance into Kherson. The mud in that area will be inhospitable to armor and wheeled vehicles for a while now. Takes the pressure off of Ukraine to “launch an offensive”. In the end: Russia will prevail and rebuild the dam.
They'll still be launching on offensive, it was never going to be in Kherson. The geography, roadways, and impediments are too many WITHOUT the preparations by the Russians. Only one main road to get through the marshes and down into lower Crimea once you cross? Nope...wasn't going to be there.
The Russians might be looking to move troops out of the Kherson AO, but it also allows the Ukrainians to do the same. I don't get why people focus on this like it is the crossing of the Rhine in WWII. The Ukrainians are ALREADY on the other side of the river, just upstream, and always have been. It only prevents localized battles and threat vector of a crossing (a dicey thing as wide as the river was and now is).
No, the question is where the Ukrainians will try to breach the Russian line. They are looking for someplace thin and are probing multiple areas to keep the Russians honest and unable to concentrate forces. Multiple intelligence reports say the Russians have not been able to put together a mobile reaction force in reserve due to manpower and equipment shortages. So the Ukrainians are spreading them out in the trenches and will hit them with a hammer. If they can break through, and have the forces and logistics to follow up and enlarge the gap, they could well unhinge the entire Russian position for a considerable area by rolling up the flanks.
The key is to get them out of the trenches, get them retreating, and not give them any respite - that is why the fuel, ammo, and food must keep up!
Not going to happen. Ukraine is literally on its 3rd iteration of an army and no longer lacks a coherent command and control. Russia is choosing the battlefield.
Hmmmm....well, you must have a different and very confidential information source telling you something different than what everyone else is saying. Of course if you are listening to Al Jazeera, the Asian Times, or somebody blogging out of St. Petersburg....probably should take it with a large grain of salt. What I go by is things we can see (such as the lack of competence and inability to execute combined arms actions, replenishment and logistics by the Russians), the loss of equipment by Russia (verified by geolocated photos by third parties), and the fact that Russia invaded a country 1/10 of its size, got its butt whipped, and has lost most of the territory it had gained since February of last year.
So, yeah, Russia chose the battlefield...and their army is dying on it.
Ok. So you say. We will see.
So I say....and we have seen, if you bother to look.
LOL - aren't you tired of being wrong yet?
I remember how excited you were about Russia's supposed winter offensive. Back when you were frothing at the mouth and spouting nonsense about Poland annexing parts of Ukraine after their army collapsed.
Instead the Russian offensive was crushed after achieving nothing - as expected.
Did you graduate from the Kaiser Wilhelm School of Diplomacy? How about negotiations rather than escalation?
Russia blows up dam during an ongoing war, and you suggest the Ukrainians negotiate? Was your alma mater the Chamberlain School of Appeasement?
1. I don't know who blew up the dam. Neither do you. 2. Not every adversary is Hitler. 3. Nor every agreement is Munich 1938.
Not hard to envision this becoming one of those "hold my beer" moments.
Per your last comment, I envision that any thoughts of taking out the Three Gorges Dam is off the table for environmental reasons plus the negative publicity we would get from that destruction. We had the opportunity to bomb the dam and dike network in North Vietnam and passed. That was during a time long before we got so environmentally sensitive and worried about collateral damage. I don't see it even as being on the table.
War has its own logic. After the PRC sunk a few CVN and a large deck amphib or two, and there are tens of thousands of dead at sea and ashore, the decision matrix will be a lot different.
It's easy to see where the outrage after 9/11 took us willy-nilly. War can have its own illogic too.
May-2020: Enabling Group Decision Support Systems (GDSS) decision matrix ...
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Main-features-of-the-proposed-Web-based-GDSS_fig1_341270451
Apropos of nothing, I saw no Anglo-Saxon or Euro-ish names in that link. And when I clicked the second image to view it completely, it looked like garbage cans holding the Decision Databases. Beyond my ken, I think...dropped out in '65, GED in '66. I am not sure that I am enlightened. Or maybe I am. Anyway, thanks for the feedback.
Agreed: “War can have its own illogic too.”
I mean you try to be the President in September 2001 with nearly 3,000 dead and try to convince the country not to invade Afghanistan. You'd be impeached in a week.
Yes, a President has got to do what a President has got to do to stay politically viable. I was firmly behind getting some massive payback but it dragged on 2 decades and ended in shame. I was out on a road inspecting the paving of a dirt road with asphalt when the 1st and 2nd Tower strikes happened. Everyone on the crew wanted blood. Those of us old, fat veterans and retirees wanted to go back on active duty. I wanted to loose Tomahawks and shell coasts again. Am sure that Bush is happy that people now remember Biden for that war.
While I agree with your comment that the decision matrix would be a lot different, I don't see us having such plans in place at the present. In general, since WW II we have worried about collateral damage and have not targeted civilians or non-military targets.
You realize, I hope, for decades we have had plans for a general nuclear that saw no difference between civ and mil. Early on, our SLBM were called city busters for a reason. Again, war has its own logic. It may take you places you would not want to go. This has been true for thousands of years and will be for thousands more.
We haven't been in a peer-to-peer hot conflict since WWII either.
NPR interview transcript suggests implications for cooling upriver nuclear power plant!
https://www.npr.org/2023/06/06/1180361059/major-dam-near-a-nuclear-power-plant-in-southern-ukraine-suddenly-collapses
Greg Myre is full of menhaden chum. ZNPP has had all of its reactors shutdown for months. They are only doing decay heat removal. ZNPP has a dedicated cooling reservoir that is not contiguous with the river. Makeup water is pumped into the reservoir from the river as needed. Now, as long as it remains intact......... Anyway, here is the IAEA update. https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/iaea-director-general-statement-to-the-iaea-board-of-governors
Thanks for fact-checking feedback!
Pop up IAEA newsletter subscription blocked complete reading.
Reverted here for alt-viewing:
https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/whatsinblue/2023/05/ukraine-briefing-on-the-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-power-plant-2.php
Luckily it isn't too hard to plan a strike on such a large and vulnerable target. If the politicos have forced it "off" the target list for now it can easily be put back on when feelings change.
How did we get the armistice in Korea?
Per Siri AIbot (Wikipedia)
“In 2011, South Korea stated that North Korea had violated the armistice 221 times.”
Since 27-July-1953 ....
“In 1963 North Korea asked the Soviet Union and China for help in developing nuclear weapons, but was refused.”
~~~~
“In May 2013, North Korea offered to enter into negotiations for a peace treaty to replace the armistice agreement.”
~~~~
“Kim also credited Moon with making the “historic” U.S.–DPRK summit in Singapore possible.” (2018)
~~~~
“North Korea commemorates 27 July as a national holiday known as Day of Victory in the Great Fatherland Liberation War.”
Panmunjom Declaration:
2018 peace and denuclearisation agreement between North and South Korea
++++
The scenario already envisioned a hot war between the US and China that was already expanding horizontally. I'd also assume that in such a scenario the US and China were already trading conventional mainland shots and we're looking for alt COAs to inflict pain while not going nuclear. It's a crap place to be but even in those scenarios you need a plan.
Yes sir turn about is fair play and since both sides claim the other did it both can now target dams.
The US wanted to bust the red river aka Hong river dams and dikes but the idea was shelved with the projected 200,000 KIA in the Civilian population.
Nixon said heck we might as well use atomic weapons then.
I see possible every Dams now in both nations as targets.
"isn’t to the benefit of Ukraine"
It was to the benefit of Ukraine, that's why they're releasing water from upstream the destroyed dam. This allows them to remove personnel from defensive positions on Kherson to support their offensive.
https://neverwasmag.com/2016/07/how-the-dutch-would-flood-their-country-to-stop-invaders/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inundation_of_Walcheren
The primary flooding of the Netherlands in WWII was a joint RAF and Canadian venture.
The Dutch Waterline, Hollandse Waterlinie was a series of water-based defenses conceived by Maurice of Nassau in the early 17th century.
This event has not appeared in any of the papers I read. Hm. Anyway, wonder if there will be as cool a march composed for this as there was for the Dambusters movie?
Dam Busters Movie March ...
https://youtu.be/r7Si2H479Es