Deterrence is in the Head as Much as the Spreadsheet

half of deterrence is just being there ... the other half is opponents knowing what you might do when you show up

One of the favorite salon games in the national security arena is arguing about “deterrence” in a fashion not unlike a multi-faith gathering of theologians discussing the nature of “salvation.”

Today we’re not going to mow the intellectual lawn of “Deterrence by Punishment” vs. “Deterrence by Denial” or any of the other confessions. Instead I want to dig a bit on the word itself, “deterrence.”

Let’s start by looking at what Oxford Reference has to say;

deterrence

A policy of attempting to control the behaviour of other actors by the use of threats. The deterrer tries to convince the deterree that the costs of undertaking the actions that the deterrer wishes to prevent will be substantially higher than any gain that the deterree might anticipate making from the action.

Deterrence is a psychological concept, if anything else. Like fear, respect, love, lust, and friendship, it is not something once gained, is granted forever. It has to be maintained, reinforced, and demonstrated on a regular basis, or it degrades over time. If neglected, it can simply wither into nothing or turn into just the opposite. Fear becomes bravery; respect becomes contempt; love becomes hate; lust becomes revulsion; friendship becomes rival.

Deterrence becomes encouragement.

The greatest danger is when a person, or their society, lacks the self-awareness to know when their assumption that what once was remains what is, no long reflects reality.

Earlier this week, I had a chance to sit down with Bill Roggio from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies for his podcast, Generation Jihad. In our wide ranging 40-minute discussion on the latest events in the Red Sea off Yemen, we discussed deterrence. You can listen at the link or below.

He gave me an opportunity to go down this rabbit hole of the deeper meaning of deterrence. This is the most human of emotions. It is not something best understood in the higher brain functions of the faculty lounge but, instead, of the Upper-Paleolithic forest and steppe brain stem that still - like some machine’s firmware - still controls the human brain.

People, tribes, nations, and alliances can sense - especially when their safety and self-interest is on the line - who is strong and reliable, and who is weak and a danger to themselves an others.

Another part of our brain stem is that of a predator. There is no greater predator on this planet than the human. When we are in predator mode, we are acutely aware of weakness and isolation in our prey and opponents. When we don’t see it, we try to create it.

Again, lack of self-awareness or self-delusion is what get you in trouble.

Pretending that the USA and its traditional allies are not sending out signals of weakness and division in the face of aggression will only make the situation worse. Just review the top-5:

• The shambolic national disgrace that was the negotiated surrender and shameful withdraw under fire from Afghanistan.

• The slow rolling support for Ukraine in their defense against Russian imperial war of conquest.

• Passive, isolated, and weak response to open piracy by Yemen’s Houthi rebels.

• Almost two years after the start of the latest phase of the Russo-Ukrainian War, the West seems unable to have the political, intellectual, or industrial capacity to effectively respond to the new reality post February 2022.

• In full knowledge now being the world’s #2 navy and only having a fraction of the maritime industrial capacity of the People’s Republic of China, the West’s largest military power at sea continues to shrink.

We have thousands of years of human history, none of which suggests that the top-5 above will do anything to advance Western interests and the progress of human liberty it represents.

Seeing the same issue from from a slightly different, but distinctly maritime angle, our friend Jerry Hendrix yesterday had a concise summary in the OP-ED section of the Wall Street Journal.

Sadly, it is behind the paywall, but I have a subscription, so let me pull out the meaty bits;

…American naval deterrence is failing, and a recent report from the Sagamore Institute concludes that it could soon evaporate.

…

While the report said the American Navy currently maintains “presence dominance,” the ability to maintain its values and interests upon the high seas, it also indicates that the U.S. margin of naval leadership is shrinking and America could swiftly lose its ability to maintain mare liberum, the free sea. This would have huge negative implications for the global economic system, which depends on open seas to move 80% of the volume of the world’s $100 trillion global domestic product.

…

Peace through strength requires more than numbers. But the Biden administration’s numerous foreign-policy setbacks in Afghanistan, Ukraine and the Middle East have undercut Americans’ will to fight and displayed a weakness of leadership and strategy to the country’s enemies. It is also becoming obvious that Washington hasn’t maintained its existing battle force. Even replacement weapons for ship’s magazines are in short supply. The world can see this, which might explain Iran’s boldness in the face of U.S. naval patrols.

America’s failure to expand and maintain its fleet, or stand by its word, may have already entirely eroded U.S. naval deterrence. The Navy’s budget, size and force architecture all need urgent attention from Congress if the U.S. is to preserve its ability to deter its enemies. Failure to do so imperils global trade as well as America’s place in the world and the safety of its people.

As a sidenote, if you’d like to learn more about the report Jerry mentions in the WSJ OP-ED, he was on Midrats earlier this fall to discuss. Give it a listen.

The longer the US and her Navy remain a passive, supine force at sea - the greater the threat our nation will face from aggressive powers.

We can act to push these forces back … but we have to act.