Did you order your PLARF from Wish.com?
maybe, maybe not
Regular readers here should be comfortable admitting that, sure, any military, if they are not careful, can have some dysfunction when it comes to telling the truth. When you combine the moral weaknesses you will find in any human institution, with a hierarchical organization that can incentivize a culture where some leaders are not to be given “bad information” - a fudge can turn into a lie that can turn into a bit of graft before you know it.
It is a short path from there to reality revealing the results; some of the vehicles you are trying to take to Kyiv with are rolling on expired tires and can’t make it 50 kilometers until they are running flat, or you cross-deck Sailors from a CG in the yards who can’t operate your DDG bridge interface designed by people with no experience at sea and you collide with a merchant ship drowning a bunch of your shipmates, etc…you know the drill. It can happen to any military.
The unimaginable amount of money that sloshes around military contracts has attracted the absolute worst types of thieves and grifters for thousands of years. This is nothing new.
High-functioning militaries are aware of this and have a culture and leaders set up to catch and correct these endemic problems from the human condition before they become an existential crisis.
Peter Martin and Jennifer Jacobs had some interesting reporting over the weekend that could be good news or bad news for both Team Blue (our side) and Team Red (People’s Republic of China).
Either way, if you don’t find it a little funny, you’re not doing NatSec right;
The corruption inside China’s Rocket Force and throughout the nation’s defense industrial base is so extensive that US officials now believe Xi is less likely to contemplate major military action in the coming years than would otherwise have been the case, according to the people, who asked not to be named discussing intelligence.
The US assessments cited several examples of the impact of graft, including missiles filled with water instead of fuel and vast fields of missile silos in western China with lids that don’t function in a way that would allow the missiles to launch effectively, one of the people said.US intelligence indicates that President Xi Jinping’s sweeping military purge came after it emerged that widespread corruption undermined his efforts to modernize the armed forces and raised questions about China’s ability to fight a war, according to people familiar with the assessments.
The corruption inside China’s Rocket Force and throughout the nation’s defense industrial base is so extensive that US officials now believe Xi is less likely to contemplate major military action in the coming years than would otherwise have been the case, according to the people, who asked not to be named discussing intelligence.
The US assessments cited several examples of the impact of graft, including missiles filled with water instead of fuel and vast fields of missile silos in western China with lids that don’t function in a way that would allow the missiles to launch effectively, one of the people said.
The US assesses that corruption within the People’s Liberation Army has led to an erosion of confidence in its overall capabilities, particularly when it comes to the Rocket Force, and also set back some of Xi’s top modernization priorities, the people said. The graft probe has ensnared more than a dozen senior defense officials over the past six months, in what may be China’s largest crackdown on the country’s military in modern history.
At the same time, the US assesses that Xi hasn’t been weakened by the widening purge, according to the people. Rather, they said, his move to oust senior figures — including some promoted under his watch — shows his hold over the Communist Party remains firm and that he’s serious about improving discipline, eliminating corruption and ultimately preparing China’s military for combat over the long term.
Before we go further, some caution is in order.
As a newly minted Field Grade Officer in 2001 who spent the next decade playing Charlie Brown to the Intelligence Community’s Lucy holding the football in an arch across Central Asia to the Horn of Africa, it’s going to take a hell of a lot more than something passed on to journalists - even as solid professionals as Jennifer and Peter - to get me all excited.
There is a non-zero chance that this is just a game being played in the Informational Domain by the PRC, so keep that in the back of your mind.
I would like to see what is in the SCIF and to have a sidebar conversation with the analyst sulking in the back of the briefing room, but let’s look at what we’ve got.
Team Blue:
If true:
Good news: we have more time than we thought to plan to defend Taiwan, our forward bases and ships from precision conventional and anti-ship ballistic missiles.
Bad news: the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Forces (PLARF) will be better prepared for the war to come.
If false:
Good news: Xi is having a spot of bother in his military that requires him to make up a face-losing story as a cover for a purge.
Bad news: Xi is consolidating his power.
Team Red:
If true:
Good news: when the war comes, the PLAF will be able to carry out the mission we need it to as opposed to failing at D+0.
Bad news: The Zhongguo dama (中國大媽) corruption problem infected even the PLARF. Where else?
If false:
Good news: LOL, the Baizuo (白左) thinks we are a bunch of Russians. Well played Chairman Xi! The revenge for the century of humiliation will soon be here!
Bad news: Whose next?
In addition to the quick-look Blue-Red/True-False, when I first read that it had me wondering all sorts of things that I shared with a compadre SEPCOR over the weekend:
It is valid reporting? I am sure on the high side we know one way or another.
If the story is correct, it sounds like either; (1) someone with a charter from Xi, or a relationship with him good enough to be independent of the military's COC, dug into a problem they heard of and reported warts and all.
They are marching along in a plan and all of a sudden realized ...
Is this just another example of using "graft" as an excuse to remove less loyal people and replace them with people more loyal to Xi?
I’m still roughly there.
We’re seeing some news like this come out as well;
Rampant corruption and funding shortfalls are eating away at the People's Liberation Army's ability to equip its own forces, according to a former People's Liberation Navy Lieutenant Colonel, who described air force personnel taking away chunks of solid missile fuel to use as fuel for meals of traditional Chinese hotpot during his time as a serving officer.
PLA Navy Lt. Col. Yao Cheng, a former staff officer of the Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force Command who fled to the United States in 2016, said corruption is rife throughout the Chinese military and is often driven by a lack of adequate supplies or equipment.
I would caution everyone to be careful thinking we would get this lucky.
We see a lot more evidence of a stronger, more capable and professional PRC military than otherwise.
Used to do a lot of activities that involved complex wargames and simulations. Couple of decades. Became familiar with the term "mirror imaging". Not always a precise or consistent definition, but projecting our mindset / values / way of thinking on the opponent is close enough. We actually had blue red and red blue teams working the issue...with very mixed results. That was almost totally open source. Late career worked with allegedly "better" information. Results were viewed with low confidence and lack of new or useful information. Corruption in Asia? Who knew? (Everyone, actually...).
Fortunately, in the west we have no such issues! (Just kidding...)
Dang! First the Chinese copy our weapons systems designs.
Now, they are copying our top DOD brass's behavior.