My mind continues to conjure-up an image in the West Wing, where the national security team are all around and each one is tossing out commentary that resembles, 'We can't get too involved, just tell the military to shoot a couple of their trucks and warehouses but use the small bombs not the big ones, we don't want to hurt them too bad, that'll send them a message right, that should be enough....'
All good points Sal and well said. I suspect the COG problem is driven by current political leadership rather than good operational planning. Just as we saw we the JLOTS pier. Would love to see the joint planning process that thought that was a good COA, :-(
I'd like to be excused from seeing "...the joint planning process that thought that was a good COA " and would dispute using the term "leadership" to define the current regime running the executive branch.
The image my mind conjures up is not so much a TV show I never watched but more a bunch of sophomores at some eastern "elite" university passing around a bong.
The Red Sea situation is a top-down problem. The White House was never serious about tamping down the Houthis. The White House only wanted a quick political win ("International coalition!"), with nice press releases and glossy photos.
I think you are probably in the right ballpark with the means required to really shut down the Houthi efforts. I just don't see there being enough political will for that level of of effort, and I suspect that will continue to be true no matter who wins the White House in November.
Well, they weren't a problem until the unaccomplished bootlickers Biden appointed decided to make the Saudi's & UAE stop fighting them. Maybe there are are some options there?
A couple of squadron sized B52 or B1 attacks from Diego Garcia and sinking the Iranian ships feeding the Houthis intelligence would be a good intermediate step.
Attacking infrastructure is now considered a war crime by enlightened Western elites. That is why the International Criminal Court has issued warrants for the arrest of Admiral Sokolov and General Kobylash.
"The International Criminal Court in The Hague has recently issued arrest warrants for high-ranking Russian military officials on suspicion on committing war crimes and crimes against humanity in connection with the winter 2022-23 bombardment of Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure. However, this has not prevented the Kremlin from embarking on a new air offensive against Ukraine’s power grid and other essential infrastructure targets across the country. "
Weddings are a manifestation of patriarchal oppression. Western elites would have no problem purging them from their male dominated, colonial histories or their more enlightened futures.
@Ed "Houthi adventure needs an LBJ sized deployment.'
----------
I beg to differ. All we need to do is issue 1 more warning (to clear our conscience) to the Houthis that if they even muss the hair of anything or anybody that the USA considers it's friends, the USA will reduce to rubble every single port and point of entry in Houthi controlled territory with a leisurely 1 hour of strategic bombing.... and then follow through.
What fighting force would constitute this "LBJ sized deployment?" This problem can be fully addressed with the proper (and sufficient) use of firepower and requires no appreciable troop deployment.
And lets be honest, the White House got that political win, at least in the short-medium term. The attacks in the Red Sea, while not exactly being ignored by the press and the public, are now no where near the top of the news cycle. At this point I suspect the average American has long since forgotten all about the Red Sea and the Houthis.
This is a small battle in a growing religious war.
Europe cannot retaliate for fear of undoing their submission to the Mohammedans amongst the EU political class. US left wing cannot fight for fear of appearing to help the Jews.
Come 2025 it will either be Israel alone, “with our fingernails if need be”, to quote Netanyahu, or the US fever dream will have broken and a new Trump administration will be producing so much energy that Houthi’ dreams of Jihad will be irrelevant.
Our basic problem is that DOS BS: “meticulously proportionate,”
1. We are talking about real Pirates here, and
2. Folks whose strategic goals are: "God Is the Greatest, Death to America, Death to Israel, A Curse Upon the Jews, Victory to Islam"
The Brit approach to this piracy or raid was "Butcher and Bolt": The North-West Frontier soon became synonymous with difficult punitive campaigns against the ferocious Pashtun tribesmen. Soldiering in this area was the epitome of military hardship and, by 1897, the British army had already undertaken several punitive operations against rebellious tribesmen. Churchill would later refer to such campaigns as "butcher and bolt" operations.
Piracy. America, and America's Navy, knew how to suppress piracy almost from the moment of America's birth. That we are unable, or unwilling, to do so again speaks volumes about how far we have fallen. We've had over 30 years of mostly cowardly and despicable leadership from presidents from Shrub I to Biden, and the bill is coming due.
The apparent lack of a coherent strategy or even a clearly communicated end-state for the Red Sea is deeply frustrating. We are at the point where we need to either commit fully and mount a major operation, or abandon the Red Sea to its fate and just route everything around Cape Horn. This tepid middle ground of doing just enough to avoid really disastrous headlines makes the US and the EU look indecisive (or proves how indecisive we can be is perhaps the better way to phrase it). IMO this is also how we got 20 years in Afghanistan with little to show for it.
Sadly, given the many domestic issues Americans are facing in this election year (and they are considered major issues rightfully so), I don't hold out a lot of hope in the change in the current status os quo.
To the extent there is a strategy other than managing the news cycle until the Houthis drop off of it, I think it may be to inflict pain on the current Egyptian government - see the dramatic loss of Suez Canal revenue. Remember that the Obama administration tried hard to replace it with an Islamic regime. This may be more of the same.
Either commit to "we win, they lose" of quit wasting blood and treasure pretending to send diplomatic messages.
War is not s painless or costless affair. Those who start wars bear the moral burden of any resulting "collateral damage." So, we can be outraged, and rightfully avenge the deaths of a few mariners and sinking of a few ships- nationalities unimportant if we are talking about "freedom of navigation." It is the Houthis who must feel the powerful fist to the face for their actions, not mosquito bites. Destroy their vital ports and infrastructure, and any pseudo governmental headquarters. Yes, there will be significant Houthi "collateral damage." But, that is likely to end their piratical practices. And send a powerful message to other contemplating attacks on "the great Satan."
Our polite pin pricks on poor tactical targets were wasted resources. The Israeli's single strike on the POL and port facilities sent a message which was much better understood.
If unwilling to take the powerful, harsh and sure to be criticized actions to defeat the Houthis, then we need to recognize we are already defeated, and slink back within our own borders and quit pretending that we are, or can be the world's policeman.
"Can't we all just get along?" is not a workable foreign policy in a world with endless tribal, ethnic, cultural, ore religious wars among state and non-state actors. Nations borders have constantly shifted all over the world for multiple centuries and it is delusional to think that a bankrupt and declining nation with diminishing military assets and capabilities can revers the tide of history and suddenly solve all the world's problems.
When we cannot fix our own internal problems, it is pure folly to be engaged in half-assed adventures abroad.
Spot on, and thanks for identifying the real problem. This "administration" insists on appeasement and diplomatic messaging vice how pirates need to actually be dealt with. Hint to DC: The Israelis have shown the way.
People seem to have forgotten that the Houthi were popping off ordnance at the USN eight years ago. Our reaction then was just as anemic. We have conditioned the Houthi just as we have conditioned Iran into a reality where they can strike and a proportionate response comes a few hours later.
They hit Israel and the Israeli appropriate and properly disproportionate response is to torch their port facilities and POL storage. The result? No more Houthi drones over Israel for three weeks.
When will we live up to Churchill's axiom and realize we've tried everything else?
I wonder at the incredible cultural differences involved here. The Houthis (along with all the other anti-American groups in the middle east) have been taught for decades an incredible hate of Americans, while in the US the general attitude is somewhere between pity, and a desire to just not have them here in the United States.
I can understand where this Admiral is coming from. He's been given a very limited mission, and has no authority to exceed certain bounds. Congress needs to get involved to clarify the mission, whether it be to commit and crush the Houthi ability to wage war (which would be only temporary, until Iran rearms them), or to give an actual path to victory that is attainable.
The Houthis see not losing as a victory. The US Navy doesn't really have a victory condition. They've been told to sit there, be targets, and practice your anti-missile and drone capabilities.
🤔😏You misspelled “never will be” as “must”
"..Political leaders who lead their nations into military failure must be held accountable by the people they represent.." ...This one?
My mind continues to conjure-up an image in the West Wing, where the national security team are all around and each one is tossing out commentary that resembles, 'We can't get too involved, just tell the military to shoot a couple of their trucks and warehouses but use the small bombs not the big ones, we don't want to hurt them too bad, that'll send them a message right, that should be enough....'
I find this scenario entirely too plausible for comfort.
Concur
Amen
All good points Sal and well said. I suspect the COG problem is driven by current political leadership rather than good operational planning. Just as we saw we the JLOTS pier. Would love to see the joint planning process that thought that was a good COA, :-(
Ya' think?
I know! I taught JMO
for NWC for 3 years, and I cannot believe they came up
with that!
I'd like to be excused from seeing "...the joint planning process that thought that was a good COA " and would dispute using the term "leadership" to define the current regime running the executive branch.
The image my mind conjures up is not so much a TV show I never watched but more a bunch of sophomores at some eastern "elite" university passing around a bong.
or Berkeley
Beat me to it. My only complaint with your comment is that you seem to be challenging me for the position of Captain Obvious in this blog. ;-)
It is telling and notable the EU opted for their own naval operation in the Red Sea. Even weaker, there is something in that decision.
The Red Sea situation is a top-down problem. The White House was never serious about tamping down the Houthis. The White House only wanted a quick political win ("International coalition!"), with nice press releases and glossy photos.
It's an election year.
White House, of whom do you speak?
Biden, Harris or a conference room at K Street?
Houthi adventure needs an LBJ sized deployment. Airmobile brigades with aviation battalions, and light mech brigades.
A few amphib MEU insufficient! Maybe knock in the door for the Army. Secure a port! Guard a few airfields.
Houthi, as Hamas, as Hizbollah, as Syrian Arab Army are not impressed by U.S. looking to fight “Iraq fly zone” again.
I think you are probably in the right ballpark with the means required to really shut down the Houthi efforts. I just don't see there being enough political will for that level of of effort, and I suspect that will continue to be true no matter who wins the White House in November.
Maybe if the Houthis sink 1 or 2 Lusitanias?
Well, they weren't a problem until the unaccomplished bootlickers Biden appointed decided to make the Saudi's & UAE stop fighting them. Maybe there are are some options there?
A couple of squadron sized B52 or B1 attacks from Diego Garcia and sinking the Iranian ships feeding the Houthis intelligence would be a good intermediate step.
Anyone can sink ships.
Do you trade crude oil futures?
I don’t.
Nah, mine the ports cut power & water. The rest will take care of itself.
Attacking infrastructure is now considered a war crime by enlightened Western elites. That is why the International Criminal Court has issued warrants for the arrest of Admiral Sokolov and General Kobylash.
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/russian-bombardment-of-ukraines-power-grid-may-force-millions-to-flee/
"The International Criminal Court in The Hague has recently issued arrest warrants for high-ranking Russian military officials on suspicion on committing war crimes and crimes against humanity in connection with the winter 2022-23 bombardment of Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure. However, this has not prevented the Kremlin from embarking on a new air offensive against Ukraine’s power grid and other essential infrastructure targets across the country. "
"Attacking infrastructure is now considered a war crime by enlightened Western elites."
Unless it's their own (e.g. Keystone pipeline). Then it's "fighting climate change and protecting the future."
But weddings are OK.
Weddings are a manifestation of patriarchal oppression. Western elites would have no problem purging them from their male dominated, colonial histories or their more enlightened futures.
@Ed "Houthi adventure needs an LBJ sized deployment.'
----------
I beg to differ. All we need to do is issue 1 more warning (to clear our conscience) to the Houthis that if they even muss the hair of anything or anybody that the USA considers it's friends, the USA will reduce to rubble every single port and point of entry in Houthi controlled territory with a leisurely 1 hour of strategic bombing.... and then follow through.
A few rounds of that will wrap this thing up.
What fighting force would constitute this "LBJ sized deployment?" This problem can be fully addressed with the proper (and sufficient) use of firepower and requires no appreciable troop deployment.
And lets be honest, the White House got that political win, at least in the short-medium term. The attacks in the Red Sea, while not exactly being ignored by the press and the public, are now no where near the top of the news cycle. At this point I suspect the average American has long since forgotten all about the Red Sea and the Houthis.
This is a small battle in a growing religious war.
Europe cannot retaliate for fear of undoing their submission to the Mohammedans amongst the EU political class. US left wing cannot fight for fear of appearing to help the Jews.
Come 2025 it will either be Israel alone, “with our fingernails if need be”, to quote Netanyahu, or the US fever dream will have broken and a new Trump administration will be producing so much energy that Houthi’ dreams of Jihad will be irrelevant.
It would take 16 years of Trump to undo the damage of 4 years of Biden Harris.
In truth, he needs to undo 12 years of Obama
My D&G would be to use the Julius Caesar method. I may be perceived as slightly harsh in some circles.
Or Scipio's Third Punic War. Thus ended the problem of Carthage.
Houthi delenda est?
Good ol’ Scipio really knew how to lay down the law. He only had to lay down the law a time or two before the Carthaginian’s knew Scippo don’t play….
And the start of New....midian problems.
Our basic problem is that DOS BS: “meticulously proportionate,”
1. We are talking about real Pirates here, and
2. Folks whose strategic goals are: "God Is the Greatest, Death to America, Death to Israel, A Curse Upon the Jews, Victory to Islam"
The Brit approach to this piracy or raid was "Butcher and Bolt": The North-West Frontier soon became synonymous with difficult punitive campaigns against the ferocious Pashtun tribesmen. Soldiering in this area was the epitome of military hardship and, by 1897, the British army had already undertaken several punitive operations against rebellious tribesmen. Churchill would later refer to such campaigns as "butcher and bolt" operations.
Or to translate the Vietnam version to Yemen:
1. first load all the locals into boats
2. then pave the country over
3. then sink all the boats
I agree but for that you need the Marines who have not bee deployed.
Spot on, Sal. But headline: less than not less then.
v/r
Yes. Thank you for the copy edit.
Piracy. America, and America's Navy, knew how to suppress piracy almost from the moment of America's birth. That we are unable, or unwilling, to do so again speaks volumes about how far we have fallen. We've had over 30 years of mostly cowardly and despicable leadership from presidents from Shrub I to Biden, and the bill is coming due.
You're talking about a country where major cities have made shoplifting essentially legal and stopping it a crime. Why would they care about piracy?
edit: Also I'd argue cowardly leadership started at least back to Clinton, with a brief ray of hope under Trump.
Waco. The BATF and FBI did manage to roast Christian children.
The apparent lack of a coherent strategy or even a clearly communicated end-state for the Red Sea is deeply frustrating. We are at the point where we need to either commit fully and mount a major operation, or abandon the Red Sea to its fate and just route everything around Cape Horn. This tepid middle ground of doing just enough to avoid really disastrous headlines makes the US and the EU look indecisive (or proves how indecisive we can be is perhaps the better way to phrase it). IMO this is also how we got 20 years in Afghanistan with little to show for it.
Sadly, given the many domestic issues Americans are facing in this election year (and they are considered major issues rightfully so), I don't hold out a lot of hope in the change in the current status os quo.
To the extent there is a strategy other than managing the news cycle until the Houthis drop off of it, I think it may be to inflict pain on the current Egyptian government - see the dramatic loss of Suez Canal revenue. Remember that the Obama administration tried hard to replace it with an Islamic regime. This may be more of the same.
all we are doing is training Iranians
Either commit to "we win, they lose" of quit wasting blood and treasure pretending to send diplomatic messages.
War is not s painless or costless affair. Those who start wars bear the moral burden of any resulting "collateral damage." So, we can be outraged, and rightfully avenge the deaths of a few mariners and sinking of a few ships- nationalities unimportant if we are talking about "freedom of navigation." It is the Houthis who must feel the powerful fist to the face for their actions, not mosquito bites. Destroy their vital ports and infrastructure, and any pseudo governmental headquarters. Yes, there will be significant Houthi "collateral damage." But, that is likely to end their piratical practices. And send a powerful message to other contemplating attacks on "the great Satan."
Our polite pin pricks on poor tactical targets were wasted resources. The Israeli's single strike on the POL and port facilities sent a message which was much better understood.
If unwilling to take the powerful, harsh and sure to be criticized actions to defeat the Houthis, then we need to recognize we are already defeated, and slink back within our own borders and quit pretending that we are, or can be the world's policeman.
"Can't we all just get along?" is not a workable foreign policy in a world with endless tribal, ethnic, cultural, ore religious wars among state and non-state actors. Nations borders have constantly shifted all over the world for multiple centuries and it is delusional to think that a bankrupt and declining nation with diminishing military assets and capabilities can revers the tide of history and suddenly solve all the world's problems.
When we cannot fix our own internal problems, it is pure folly to be engaged in half-assed adventures abroad.
"slink back within our own borders"
if we can identify them
Spot on, and thanks for identifying the real problem. This "administration" insists on appeasement and diplomatic messaging vice how pirates need to actually be dealt with. Hint to DC: The Israelis have shown the way.
People seem to have forgotten that the Houthi were popping off ordnance at the USN eight years ago. Our reaction then was just as anemic. We have conditioned the Houthi just as we have conditioned Iran into a reality where they can strike and a proportionate response comes a few hours later.
They hit Israel and the Israeli appropriate and properly disproportionate response is to torch their port facilities and POL storage. The result? No more Houthi drones over Israel for three weeks.
When will we live up to Churchill's axiom and realize we've tried everything else?
I wonder at the incredible cultural differences involved here. The Houthis (along with all the other anti-American groups in the middle east) have been taught for decades an incredible hate of Americans, while in the US the general attitude is somewhere between pity, and a desire to just not have them here in the United States.
I can understand where this Admiral is coming from. He's been given a very limited mission, and has no authority to exceed certain bounds. Congress needs to get involved to clarify the mission, whether it be to commit and crush the Houthi ability to wage war (which would be only temporary, until Iran rearms them), or to give an actual path to victory that is attainable.
The Houthis see not losing as a victory. The US Navy doesn't really have a victory condition. They've been told to sit there, be targets, and practice your anti-missile and drone capabilities.
while shooting missiles faster than we build them
in the US the general attitude is somewhere between pity, and a desire to just not have them here in the United States ...
and of late a propensity to send them to Congress