Great stream. Lots of excellent points here that we would normally assume NSC/State/DoD and NATO are considering and formulating options for. Based on what is unfolding now, that may not be the case and bureaucratic paralysis has overcome the normal sluggish IC processes. The true question will be how much we are willing to pay in treasure and offer a reluctant Talibans to keep the door open? Depending on assets were frozen, what needs to be unlocked that we left behind, recognition of their government (Internationally, legally, etc) as a country that opens up access and opportunity, there is plenty to bargain with. If, that is, the Talibans are willing and that we are willing to stomach the "consequences" mentioned. You're point about the Taliban caring one iota what western politicians think is spot on...and whether or not they will be magnanimous in their dealings post occupation is unlikely and if we don't plan for the worst, we may be even more disappointed than we are now. After all, what did we expect? The post-31 August scenarios are the things of planning rooms, red cells, and completely unanticipated actions and assumptions gone awry.
As I've commented elsewhere, we're almost certainly looking at a ghastly urban combat situation, a la Mogadishu. Biden's dwindling defenders don't seem to understand that we control literally zero terrain outside of the Kabul airport, and so are wholly at the mercy of the Taliban to conduct evacuation operations. Who's to say what the Taliban's calculations are, or even if they control all of the combatants under their command? A host of frightful scenarios spring readily to mind – an rpg from a rogue Taliban fighter bringing down a C-130 packed with evacuees, Americans or others held hostage or ritually killed in widely shared propaganda videos, captured embassy personnel subjected to show trials, and on and on. The potential for any number of nightmares grows greater with each hour...
Here's my take on the situation - https://streamfortyseven.substack.com/p/this-isnt-going-to-be-popular-biden - as of yesterday - and an excellent analysis I just read - https://mondoweiss.net/2021/08/afghanistan-the-end-of-the-occupation/ - although I don't see it as a defeat but as a reaction to a stalemate in a war in which there was no criterion for "winning" - and any "win" would involve the invasion and defeat of Pakistan as well, which had the same function for the Taliban as North Vietnam had for the Viet Cong.
Great stream. Lots of excellent points here that we would normally assume NSC/State/DoD and NATO are considering and formulating options for. Based on what is unfolding now, that may not be the case and bureaucratic paralysis has overcome the normal sluggish IC processes. The true question will be how much we are willing to pay in treasure and offer a reluctant Talibans to keep the door open? Depending on assets were frozen, what needs to be unlocked that we left behind, recognition of their government (Internationally, legally, etc) as a country that opens up access and opportunity, there is plenty to bargain with. If, that is, the Talibans are willing and that we are willing to stomach the "consequences" mentioned. You're point about the Taliban caring one iota what western politicians think is spot on...and whether or not they will be magnanimous in their dealings post occupation is unlikely and if we don't plan for the worst, we may be even more disappointed than we are now. After all, what did we expect? The post-31 August scenarios are the things of planning rooms, red cells, and completely unanticipated actions and assumptions gone awry.
As I've commented elsewhere, we're almost certainly looking at a ghastly urban combat situation, a la Mogadishu. Biden's dwindling defenders don't seem to understand that we control literally zero terrain outside of the Kabul airport, and so are wholly at the mercy of the Taliban to conduct evacuation operations. Who's to say what the Taliban's calculations are, or even if they control all of the combatants under their command? A host of frightful scenarios spring readily to mind – an rpg from a rogue Taliban fighter bringing down a C-130 packed with evacuees, Americans or others held hostage or ritually killed in widely shared propaganda videos, captured embassy personnel subjected to show trials, and on and on. The potential for any number of nightmares grows greater with each hour...