Yeah, kind of figured that people would just read that part. You didn't read on, though, obviously. The part that Biden got right was setting the policy to get the US out, which should have been done with the failure of the original mission in 2002, when bin Laden went over the border to Pakistan. Unless we were prepared to invade and occupy Pakistan as well, our efforts in Afghanistan were doomed to failure from the outset. Biden's correct policy was either very badly carried out or was sabotaged by people, in agencies, whose loyalties are to something other than the Constitution, and the information he was given was probably also tainted. It's like driving a car, you turn the steering wheel and you expect the car to go in a determinate direction at a given time - and when this doesn't happen, you're screwed. Presidents set policy, it's up to others to carry it out faithfully and competently.
Great stream. Lots of excellent points here that we would normally assume NSC/State/DoD and NATO are considering and formulating options for. Based on what is unfolding now, that may not be the case and bureaucratic paralysis has overcome the normal sluggish IC processes. The true question will be how much we are willing to pay in treasure and offer a reluctant Talibans to keep the door open? Depending on assets were frozen, what needs to be unlocked that we left behind, recognition of their government (Internationally, legally, etc) as a country that opens up access and opportunity, there is plenty to bargain with. If, that is, the Talibans are willing and that we are willing to stomach the "consequences" mentioned. You're point about the Taliban caring one iota what western politicians think is spot on...and whether or not they will be magnanimous in their dealings post occupation is unlikely and if we don't plan for the worst, we may be even more disappointed than we are now. After all, what did we expect? The post-31 August scenarios are the things of planning rooms, red cells, and completely unanticipated actions and assumptions gone awry.
As I've commented elsewhere, we're almost certainly looking at a ghastly urban combat situation, a la Mogadishu. Biden's dwindling defenders don't seem to understand that we control literally zero terrain outside of the Kabul airport, and so are wholly at the mercy of the Taliban to conduct evacuation operations. Who's to say what the Taliban's calculations are, or even if they control all of the combatants under their command? A host of frightful scenarios spring readily to mind – an rpg from a rogue Taliban fighter bringing down a C-130 packed with evacuees, Americans or others held hostage or ritually killed in widely shared propaganda videos, captured embassy personnel subjected to show trials, and on and on. The potential for any number of nightmares grows greater with each hour...
Afghanistan's currency reserves, including gold, are held in the Federal Reserve Bank in New York. So the Taliban are short on money. About 5% of the land is arable, suitable for growing crops. Other than that, they have natural resources - https://www.mining.com/1-trillion-motherlode-of-lithium-and-gold-discovered-in-afghanistan/ - and the Chinese are going to get those. My bet is that the Chinese will overplay their hand and try to get something over on the Taliban - and then they'll get stuck in the rathole. They still haven't conquered Tibet.
Yeah, so? You seem to be assuming the Taliban are rational actors. News flash: They are not. As if more evidence were needed, they just named a guy with no financial training to head the Afghan central bank. Worse, there is little in the way of a command and control structure to ensure fighting discipline and discourage factionalism. And we haven't even addressed extant ISIS and Al-Qaeda elements...
And yet, without that command and control structure, how did they manage to accomplish what they've managed to do so quickly? As to discouraging factionalism, that's what Friday prayers are for. Innovation in Islam is a death penalty offense, they stick to the straight and narrow. As to combat discipline, suicide missions are a guaranteed way to get straight into Paradise, mujahideen become mushahideen, shahids, martyrs for Islam, to the point that prospective future martyrs have their pictures taken for the equivalent of prayer cards before they go off on their missions. These are people who believe that the law set out in Qu'ran and hadiths is sufficient for all areas of life - including finance, if they have a question, they ask their mullahs for a ruling. "And Allah knows best." So far as they're concerned, no financial training - especially by infidels - outweighs the Qu'ran. They're not a Western culture.
Here's my take on the situation - https://streamfortyseven.substack.com/p/this-isnt-going-to-be-popular-biden - as of yesterday - and an excellent analysis I just read - https://mondoweiss.net/2021/08/afghanistan-the-end-of-the-occupation/ - although I don't see it as a defeat but as a reaction to a stalemate in a war in which there was no criterion for "winning" - and any "win" would involve the invasion and defeat of Pakistan as well, which had the same function for the Taliban as North Vietnam had for the Viet Cong.
Biden got it right
HAHHHAHAHHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAAHHAHHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAA
Yeah, kind of figured that people would just read that part. You didn't read on, though, obviously. The part that Biden got right was setting the policy to get the US out, which should have been done with the failure of the original mission in 2002, when bin Laden went over the border to Pakistan. Unless we were prepared to invade and occupy Pakistan as well, our efforts in Afghanistan were doomed to failure from the outset. Biden's correct policy was either very badly carried out or was sabotaged by people, in agencies, whose loyalties are to something other than the Constitution, and the information he was given was probably also tainted. It's like driving a car, you turn the steering wheel and you expect the car to go in a determinate direction at a given time - and when this doesn't happen, you're screwed. Presidents set policy, it's up to others to carry it out faithfully and competently.
Great stream. Lots of excellent points here that we would normally assume NSC/State/DoD and NATO are considering and formulating options for. Based on what is unfolding now, that may not be the case and bureaucratic paralysis has overcome the normal sluggish IC processes. The true question will be how much we are willing to pay in treasure and offer a reluctant Talibans to keep the door open? Depending on assets were frozen, what needs to be unlocked that we left behind, recognition of their government (Internationally, legally, etc) as a country that opens up access and opportunity, there is plenty to bargain with. If, that is, the Talibans are willing and that we are willing to stomach the "consequences" mentioned. You're point about the Taliban caring one iota what western politicians think is spot on...and whether or not they will be magnanimous in their dealings post occupation is unlikely and if we don't plan for the worst, we may be even more disappointed than we are now. After all, what did we expect? The post-31 August scenarios are the things of planning rooms, red cells, and completely unanticipated actions and assumptions gone awry.
As I've commented elsewhere, we're almost certainly looking at a ghastly urban combat situation, a la Mogadishu. Biden's dwindling defenders don't seem to understand that we control literally zero terrain outside of the Kabul airport, and so are wholly at the mercy of the Taliban to conduct evacuation operations. Who's to say what the Taliban's calculations are, or even if they control all of the combatants under their command? A host of frightful scenarios spring readily to mind – an rpg from a rogue Taliban fighter bringing down a C-130 packed with evacuees, Americans or others held hostage or ritually killed in widely shared propaganda videos, captured embassy personnel subjected to show trials, and on and on. The potential for any number of nightmares grows greater with each hour...
Afghanistan's currency reserves, including gold, are held in the Federal Reserve Bank in New York. So the Taliban are short on money. About 5% of the land is arable, suitable for growing crops. Other than that, they have natural resources - https://www.mining.com/1-trillion-motherlode-of-lithium-and-gold-discovered-in-afghanistan/ - and the Chinese are going to get those. My bet is that the Chinese will overplay their hand and try to get something over on the Taliban - and then they'll get stuck in the rathole. They still haven't conquered Tibet.
Yeah, so? You seem to be assuming the Taliban are rational actors. News flash: They are not. As if more evidence were needed, they just named a guy with no financial training to head the Afghan central bank. Worse, there is little in the way of a command and control structure to ensure fighting discipline and discourage factionalism. And we haven't even addressed extant ISIS and Al-Qaeda elements...
And yet, without that command and control structure, how did they manage to accomplish what they've managed to do so quickly? As to discouraging factionalism, that's what Friday prayers are for. Innovation in Islam is a death penalty offense, they stick to the straight and narrow. As to combat discipline, suicide missions are a guaranteed way to get straight into Paradise, mujahideen become mushahideen, shahids, martyrs for Islam, to the point that prospective future martyrs have their pictures taken for the equivalent of prayer cards before they go off on their missions. These are people who believe that the law set out in Qu'ran and hadiths is sufficient for all areas of life - including finance, if they have a question, they ask their mullahs for a ruling. "And Allah knows best." So far as they're concerned, no financial training - especially by infidels - outweighs the Qu'ran. They're not a Western culture.