Serious people? That's comforting and reassuring to know they have things "well in hand"... like Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria... Serious people who "know things."
The irony is thick that the EU is active in supporting Ukraine in its fight to defend itself from Russian hegemony, yet effectively sides with the CCP in its squeeze of democratic Taiwan.
Those poor, misguided Japanese seem furious that he's pressuring the Diet to enact LGBT laws when the Japanese public hates that shit, but eventually they'll get used to it. Comfortably numb.
Of course, we don't need a bunch of conservatives on our side, right? Plus we won WW2, so how good can they possibly be? /sarc
I'm sure they will be breaking down doors to swell the ranks of JDF and antagonize their great big neighbor on the mainland.
Europe will sit on its hands. The European Political class (and by extension, the mercantile) has been sucking on our hind tit for three generations. They will not budge.
Concur. I see essentially three factors in play. First, all politics is local politics; those in power want to stay in power, so they do things that make them popular locally. No surprise since it happens in the US as well. Second is that France, in particular, actually resents the fact that the US had to pull their chestnuts out of the fire twice in the past century. Not to mention that we didn't back their play (with the Brits) for the Suez Canal in 1956. Third is that no country in Europe has colonies or possessions that could be threatened by France, unless a person wanted to count French Polynesia, which is well out of the line of fire.
Ah, yes. Our good friends the French; "Lafayette, we are here!" and all that. " In 1966, France decided to withdraw from the Alliance’s integrated military command.", which meant all NATO forces had to leave French territory, including NATO HQ in Paris. But they did decide to rejoin well after the collapse of the USSR
When the Communists were in Europe's backyard they recognized the dangers that the Soviets posed. Communist China on the other hand is on the other side of the world.
Europe feels that its commercial ties with the Party trump its obligations to support democracy in the South China Sea arena. Should a war break out in the Taiwan Strait those commercial ties will shatter. As long as a conflict rages there will be no maritime traffic to or from the PRC, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea, and the Philippines.
Pretending that the Taiwan issue really does not affect them is a massive geo-economic mistake. Paraphrasing FDR, if your neighbors house is on fire yours is in danger. The more countries that stand up to Communist China the less likely a conflict in the Indo-Pacific will occur.
Great read as always. Just so long as the U.S. appeases the expectations of European elites that the U.S. will remain steadfast in her commitment and resolve in safeguarding the neutrality of the global commons through which European goods flow unimpeded.
Underrated observation. Especially when missiles are arcing overhead for days every time a senior American shows up. Taiwan should be in the position of saying "we respec the mainland, but out chips be too nervous to export there no more."
Best case, Europe is eventually able to stand on its own two feet against a Russian threat against Europe, at least without immediate support from the US. Possibly, we can convince some Europeans that there is something to be gained from FDI in Pacific partners (anti-BRI), even if it's for purely financial reasons on their part. Anything more commitment from Europe than that is a pipe dream.
Well, except for the British Empire, Europe was not a serious player in the Pacific during WW II---an honorable exception for The Netherlands. Great nations do not have friends, they have interests, as somebody famous once said.
I was thinking the same thing. French Indochina wasn't important enough to France for her to keep fighting after Dien Bien Phu, and once the UK turned over Hong Kong their incentives to mess with WestPac kinda evaporated. We have the Aussies, the Japanese, possibly the ROK, and if we're lucky perhaps Indonesia and India (occasionally). The Kiwis and Canucks are useless.
I served an exchange tour with the RCN. They are professional and competent. They do have a Pacific coast--and a "Fleet" (Escort squadron and MPA) out there. Their current PM is a useless soy boy, I agree. On the other hand, look what we've got.
As an Australian, I regard the Kiwis as worse than useless on the China front: they are positively counter-productive. Going to start calling them French New Zealand.
It's almost as if Taiwan is a regional concern for one country, and not some global harbinger of universal communism or something.
The USA will have to continue its crusade for liberal democracy and gay pride parades alone - well, alone except for their satrapies in the UK, AUS, CAN, and NZ.
Ralph Peters wrote a fiction book called Red Army it was about a Soviet invasion of Western Europe, told from the Soviet side the book came to an end after The Europeans called a truce and allowed CCCP to keep what they gained an forced NATO to surrender in a cease fire.
I think in any conflict between China and the US the "Allies" will sit it out and deal with the winner.
I think if push came to shove the Russians can expect the US to fight them alone, treaties or not.
We won't know if our "allies" will stand with us or melt away like snow at the first real shot.
Here is a suggestion which goes beyond mere rhetoric into visible concrete action. Give Poland our entire reserve stock of M1A1's now sitting uselessly in storage with the caveat that the Poles must pay for the necessary modernization and restorative maintenance before delivery.
The current administration would never consider an action as bold as this one, but some future American administration might. And no, for those of you on the Front Porch who are living in some alternate political reality, that hypothetical future American administration will not be headed by Ron DeSantis.
Nice self-promotion.
Ahhhh, the Wentworth Report. If I lose my mind completely, I'll donate to it.
As I understand it, we are not counting on their participation
Some people, serious people, think it is an option. Amazing, I know.
Serious people? That's comforting and reassuring to know they have things "well in hand"... like Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria... Serious people who "know things."
The British, depending on the deployment cycle maybe. The rest of Europe, no way.
The irony is thick that the EU is active in supporting Ukraine in its fight to defend itself from Russian hegemony, yet effectively sides with the CCP in its squeeze of democratic Taiwan.
A policy personified in the current President of France.
Don't worry; Rahm Emanuel is on the job in Tokyo.
Those poor, misguided Japanese seem furious that he's pressuring the Diet to enact LGBT laws when the Japanese public hates that shit, but eventually they'll get used to it. Comfortably numb.
Of course, we don't need a bunch of conservatives on our side, right? Plus we won WW2, so how good can they possibly be? /sarc
I'm sure they will be breaking down doors to swell the ranks of JDF and antagonize their great big neighbor on the mainland.
I had to go look that up. WTF is an ambassador to a nation doing marching in a pride parade?
He never lets a crisis go to waste.
Europe will sit on its hands. The European Political class (and by extension, the mercantile) has been sucking on our hind tit for three generations. They will not budge.
They really don't like us.
Concur. I see essentially three factors in play. First, all politics is local politics; those in power want to stay in power, so they do things that make them popular locally. No surprise since it happens in the US as well. Second is that France, in particular, actually resents the fact that the US had to pull their chestnuts out of the fire twice in the past century. Not to mention that we didn't back their play (with the Brits) for the Suez Canal in 1956. Third is that no country in Europe has colonies or possessions that could be threatened by France, unless a person wanted to count French Polynesia, which is well out of the line of fire.
So sorry. Correction. Make that “could be threatened by China”.
Ah, yes. Our good friends the French; "Lafayette, we are here!" and all that. " In 1966, France decided to withdraw from the Alliance’s integrated military command.", which meant all NATO forces had to leave French territory, including NATO HQ in Paris. But they did decide to rejoin well after the collapse of the USSR
When the Communists were in Europe's backyard they recognized the dangers that the Soviets posed. Communist China on the other hand is on the other side of the world.
Europe feels that its commercial ties with the Party trump its obligations to support democracy in the South China Sea arena. Should a war break out in the Taiwan Strait those commercial ties will shatter. As long as a conflict rages there will be no maritime traffic to or from the PRC, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea, and the Philippines.
Pretending that the Taiwan issue really does not affect them is a massive geo-economic mistake. Paraphrasing FDR, if your neighbors house is on fire yours is in danger. The more countries that stand up to Communist China the less likely a conflict in the Indo-Pacific will occur.
TrustbutVerify, tell us again about all the great things Europe is going to do for us in the Pacific. 🙄
like a river overflowing it's banks...
Maybe we should have let the Germans keep their Pacific possessions after WW1?
That would have included the Northern Marianas. No es bueno.
Right. Much better that the Northern Marianas, Marshalls (Kwajalein, Eniwetok), Carolines ( Truk), and Palau went to Japan after WWI.
Great read as always. Just so long as the U.S. appeases the expectations of European elites that the U.S. will remain steadfast in her commitment and resolve in safeguarding the neutrality of the global commons through which European goods flow unimpeded.
Perhaps it's time for Taiwan to reciprocate by whom she sells chips to.
Underrated observation. Especially when missiles are arcing overhead for days every time a senior American shows up. Taiwan should be in the position of saying "we respec the mainland, but out chips be too nervous to export there no more."
Best case, Europe is eventually able to stand on its own two feet against a Russian threat against Europe, at least without immediate support from the US. Possibly, we can convince some Europeans that there is something to be gained from FDI in Pacific partners (anti-BRI), even if it's for purely financial reasons on their part. Anything more commitment from Europe than that is a pipe dream.
Well, except for the British Empire, Europe was not a serious player in the Pacific during WW II---an honorable exception for The Netherlands. Great nations do not have friends, they have interests, as somebody famous once said.
I was thinking the same thing. French Indochina wasn't important enough to France for her to keep fighting after Dien Bien Phu, and once the UK turned over Hong Kong their incentives to mess with WestPac kinda evaporated. We have the Aussies, the Japanese, possibly the ROK, and if we're lucky perhaps Indonesia and India (occasionally). The Kiwis and Canucks are useless.
I served an exchange tour with the RCN. They are professional and competent. They do have a Pacific coast--and a "Fleet" (Escort squadron and MPA) out there. Their current PM is a useless soy boy, I agree. On the other hand, look what we've got.
As an Australian, I regard the Kiwis as worse than useless on the China front: they are positively counter-productive. Going to start calling them French New Zealand.
It's almost as if Taiwan is a regional concern for one country, and not some global harbinger of universal communism or something.
The USA will have to continue its crusade for liberal democracy and gay pride parades alone - well, alone except for their satrapies in the UK, AUS, CAN, and NZ.
Ralph Peters wrote a fiction book called Red Army it was about a Soviet invasion of Western Europe, told from the Soviet side the book came to an end after The Europeans called a truce and allowed CCCP to keep what they gained an forced NATO to surrender in a cease fire.
I think in any conflict between China and the US the "Allies" will sit it out and deal with the winner.
I think if push came to shove the Russians can expect the US to fight them alone, treaties or not.
We won't know if our "allies" will stand with us or melt away like snow at the first real shot.
I have no illusions.
Here is a suggestion which goes beyond mere rhetoric into visible concrete action. Give Poland our entire reserve stock of M1A1's now sitting uselessly in storage with the caveat that the Poles must pay for the necessary modernization and restorative maintenance before delivery.
The current administration would never consider an action as bold as this one, but some future American administration might. And no, for those of you on the Front Porch who are living in some alternate political reality, that hypothetical future American administration will not be headed by Ron DeSantis.