Fullbore Friday
patience and timing
Assuming you know what kind of war you are in, (not always known at the time) at the Strategic Level victory is achieved when there is a cascading series of Operational Level victories that brings your enemy to the point of combat ineffectiveness or collapse.
At the Operational Level, victories are had when a series of Tactical Level victories achieve Decisive Points along various lines of Operations in support of Objectives and End States and undermining the enemy's Center of Gravity.
Some victories are more important than others ... and the smallest thing can make all the difference, even something as simple as listening through the fog for an outboard motor.
One day the full story of the the attempted crossing of the Siverskyi Donets river at Bilohorivka will be known, but what we know now is enough for a fullbore:
On the morning of May 8 Russia blanketed the river with smoke by burning nearby fields and throwing smoke grenades, he said, but commanders detected the sound of boat engines and called in artillery strikes which caused devastating losses.
It came as Ukraine's generals said Russia's offensive in the Donbass has largely stalled, with Putin's troops forced on to the defensive north of Kharkiv as counter-attacks push the invaders back across their own border.
In a late-Wednesday update, Ukraine's commander said there had been no major attacks around Izyum - where the bulk of its Donbas force is located - or in Mykolaiv or Kryvyi Rih, hundreds of miles to the south, where it has been forced to reinforce its units after taking casualties.
To the north of Kharkiv, commanders said 'occupying forces moved to the defence in order to slow down the pace of the offensive of our troops'. It means the only section of frontline that remains active is around Severodonetsk - where the bridge ambush took place - Donetsk and Mariupol, where Ukrainian defenders are still holding out.
...
'Roughly 20 minutes after recon unit confirmed the Russian bridge was being mounted, heavy artillery engaged against Russian forces, and then aviation chipped in as well. I was still in the area, and I have never seen or heard such heavy combat in my life.
'After one day of combat, 9th May morning the bridge was down. Some Russian forces - roughly 30 to 50 vehicles and infantry - were stuck on the Ukrainian side of the river with no way back. They tried to run away using the broken bridge. Then they tried to arrange a new bridge.
'Aviation started heavy bombing of the area and it destroyed all the remains of Russians there, and the other bridge they tried to make. Rumors say it's 1,500 Russian dead. Their strategic objective was to cross the river and then encircle Lysychansk. They miserably failed.'
Russian troop losses in the bombardment are almost impossible to estimate, but online observers have so-far counted 58 destroyed vehicles including at least seven tanks and dozens of armoured infantry carriers.
At least one tugboat appears to have been wiped out, along with two pontoon bridges left floating in the river with shell-holes visible in the top of them.
Look at the map. You can tell what the Russian were attempting to do with this bridgehead.
The Ukrainians continue to exceed all expectations. BZ to them and all the trainers sent to help them since 2014.
Read the whole thing from The Daily Mail.
How long can Wagner/Chechen enforcers continue to compel this conscript herd to keep running back into the slaughterhouse?
I spent a half hour watching Uke and foreign correspondent reports from the field this evening. Three of these reports were of scavenging parties rounding up ammo, small arms, and crew served weapons from lightly damaged or simply abandoned equipment. Leaving gear for your opponent is a fire alarm indicating catastrophic lack of training, discipline, and morale.
The Russian Army is unfit for purpose. Lobbing obsolete nukes I to NATO countries won't change that.
Some analysts are questioning the losses, given that there are at least 25 BMP-1s in the photos, none of which are in Russian service (but are in Ukrainian service). LPR and DPR operate them, yes, but only a few have of the losses have V markings, and many are pointed in the wrong direction on the wrong side of the river. The argument is this was a long-running battle and both sides lost many vehicles. The fact that the BH is now in Russian hands and there's fighting to the south, suggests this may have been a costly victory but not a defeat. By now, everyone should know nothing Ukr MoD says should be taken at face value.