Germany: A Political not an Industry Problem?

when decline goes from a choice to a force of nature

On the border of both EU and NATO nations in Europe, a Russian army is about to enter its third year of an imperial war of aggression for territorial expansion.

Along the most efficient Sea Lines of Communication (SLOC) between Europe and Asia, trade has almost been brought to a halt by a non-state actor engaged in piracy - yet the only significant naval presence directly countering this threat comes from the non-Continental European powers of the USA, the UK, and a minor assist from France.

Smaller navies such as Denmark are, at this late hour, trying to come to help, but due to their small numbers lack the ability to sustain prolonged operations. Many of their ships lack the proper weapons to defend themselves against the spectrum of weapons being launched, much less other ships. Additionally, as we learned the hard way in Afghanistan - that doesn’t even begin to weigh in national caveats on what their politicians will even allow them to do.

Why can’t Europe even defend itself from 4th tier threats, or even the real threat on their eastern front?

The four largest Continental European NATO members by GDP (2023 billions USD);

• Germany: ($4,430)

• France: ($3,049)

• Italy: ($2,186)

• Spain: ($1,582)

Here is what they spend on defense as a percentage of GDP and (expenditure):

• Germany: 1.57% ($68.1)

• France: 1.90% ($56.7)

• Italy: 1.46% ($31.6)

• Spain: 1.26% ($19.2)

For reference, the USA spends 3.49% of GDP for $860 billion. Do the math yourself.

Clearly, the most productive path to a stronger Continental threat coming from the east is from Germany. The Baltic Republics and Poland are doing their fair share, but they lack the population and GDP to really make a point to Russia.

As we approach the third year of the Russo-Ukrainian War, there are no more “interesting theories” to cloud up thinking. There is a war with hundreds of thousands of casualties right to the east. The distance from Berlin to Kyiv is roughly the same as the distance from Washington DC to St. Louis, MO. That should focus the mind, but it appears not to the degree one would think.

So … how are things in the nation led by the Social Democratic Party, Greens, & a flavor of Free Democratic Party? What are they doing to meet the greatest security challenge since the Cold War?

About what you’d expect.

Politicians blame industry…industry blames government…but who makes the laws, regulations, and has the money? Let’s check in with Bild;

The only direct criticism came from the defense company Hensoldt, which, among other things, produces radar systems for the IRIS-T air defense system that is in use in Ukraine. Head of communications Joachim Schranzhofer said on We are able to deliver quickly and in large quantities. All you have to do is give orders!”

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Hans Christoph Atzpodien (68), head of the Federal Association of the German Security and Defense Industry (BDSV), also contradicts the minister: “Immediately after the Russian attack on Ukraine, we were asked by the Ministry of Defense to do everything we could to make the Bundeswehr ready for combat make. Many of our companies then made efforts – sometimes at their own risk – to improve the Bundeswehr’s equipment as quickly as possible.”

He also blames the government: “Unfortunately, at the beginning, almost nothing could be ordered due to budgetary reasons...”

…

Nils Beyer, spokesman for “Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems” from Kiel (which builds submarines and frigates, among other things), made a similar statement . He told BILD: “We have the goal of developing Wismar into a naval shipbuilding location for the construction of new submarines and frigates. However, the relevant commissions from the federal government and the resulting investments are crucial for the site to be fully activated. So we are ready when the federal government needs us.”

…

Rheinmetall boss Armin Papperger (60) emphasized the good cooperation between the federal government and the weapons industry. The CEO of the Düsseldorf weapons manufacturer told BILD : “A lot has changed for the better in military procurement. Rheinmetall alone received orders or framework agreements worth over 10 billion euros from the federal government last year - for the Bundeswehr and for the Ukraine. This year this sum will increase to at least 15 billion.”

However, he did not accept accusations of slow deliveries either. Papperger: “The pace is fast: What would have previously taken ten years is now accomplished in a few months. We will now build a new ammunition factory in Germany in record time to create strategic security of supply.”

From the European perspective, WWII is already 1/3 over in this time … and … via another Bild article interview with the person, who at least from my seat, seems the best minister in government;

In the BILD interview, Boris Pistorius makes it clear: For him, the discussion about Germany's “war capability” is not just about debates. He didn't bring the term into the discussion "because I enjoy provocation."

Rather, he wants to wake people up: “We are coming from 30 years of peace, 30 years of peace dividends, from which we have all benefited. And now the journey is going in the other direction.” Pistorius warns: “We have to really, really pick up the pace so that we can get ourselves into the situation just in case.”

Regarding a possible US President Donald Trump (77), Pistorius said: “I think we are well advised as Europeans to do what we should have done years ago, ten or 20 years ago: invest more in our own security Europe to invest. If we now look at these American elections like a rabbit at a snake - that doesn't help us at all! We have to do our homework.”

The Europeans really need to stop getting their view of the USA from the NYT and WaPo. DJT is the least of their problems.

As regular readers here know, more than a decade before DJT came down the escalator I’ve been warning the Europeans that the USA is but an election, natural disaster, or domestic squabble away from generally decoupling from Europe, leaving nothing but a phone number to call for emergencies left on its desk in Brussels.

DJT is a symptom, not a cause.

What do the Russians see? Why, besides being Russians, are they so persistent?

They can see and smell what The Spectator is reporting on. Considering how worm-ridden the German government, military, and security agencies are with Russian agents - they probably know even more;

Last year, Olaf Scholz, the German Chancellor, made a pledge that would have been unthinkable not long ago: to send a combat brigade to be permanently deployed in Lithuania. The plan was to station almost 5,000 troops an hour away from the Suwalki Corridor, the 40-mile-long border between Poland and Lithuania, flanked by Belarus to the east and the Russian exclave Kaliningrad to the west. Scholz, and his new defence minister, Boris Pistorius, wanted to transform Germany’s military from a medium-sized operational force to one which can be Europe’s first line of defence if Vladimir Putin ever attacks a Nato territory.

If Scholz’s announcement seemed too good to be true that’s because it was. So far just 30 German soldiers have been sent to Lithuania.

…

One of the two tank brigades he has promised to Lithuania, the Panzerbataillon 203 from Augustdorf, North Rhine-Westphalia, has no tanks. All the ones it had have been sent to Ukraine. Pistorius says replacements will be delivered directly to Lithuania in 2026 (assuming the contractors deliver on time) but until then the soldiers will have to practise on simulators. ‘Pistorius wants to send a tank battalion without tanks to Lithuania,’ says Ingo Gädechens, who sits on the Bundestag’s defence committee. ‘What kind of signal is this to our Lithuanian allies?’

…

Just before Christmas, Pistorius visited a workshop in Lithuania that was fixing Leopard 2s sent back from Donetsk. He brought an entourage with him, including journalists, who were expecting to see war-damaged vehicles, but most had just broken down and were being fixed. ‘Unfortunately, only a very small number of the battle tanks delivered can still be used by Ukraine,’ admitted Sebastian Schäfer, a Green member of the Bundestag, who was on the trip.

The above underlines that Europe still is not rising to the occasion. As the USA continues to try to refocus to Asia, we need to be clear-headed about the weakness that will remain in Europe.

Why? Simple;

• Demographics: not enough fighting age men - and yes I mean men - to field large armies while having industry to build enough weapons and also generate taxable income to spend on an aging population that feels entitled to the largess of the post-WWII welfare state.

• Political Disruption: in France the National Front is on the rise, and in Germany the AfD is getting too large to ignore. From The Netherlands to Spain … the pushback against the failure of the center-right and center-left parties over the last few decades will be disruptive and distracting.

• Migration: tied in to the two above, unsustainable trends reach a critical mass at some point and then explode - usually.

• Economic: especially in Germany, the Green push to deindustrialize will hamstring any attempt to claw back manufacturing in order to boost GDP, per-capita income, and a sustainable sovereign military production capacity.

What is the solution? I don’t know. All I know is what the numbers tell us.

Continental Europe cannot prosper without a militarily strong Germany. Germany not only does not seem to want that, her political leadership seems to be doing their best to prevent it.

All we can do in North America is to watch, encourage the good, and avoid encouraging the bad.

Oh, and pray for peace - as NATO is not ready for that war.