Hopefully. Poland has a quiet nuclear program going for when we walk away from NATO. With a reasonable nuclear deterrent and the conventional arms buildup the have in progress, the Russians will leave well enough alone after Ukraine, whatever the outcome there. The US is going to walk away; it is only a matter of time.
Interestingly, in the dark ages of the 1950s, the Euros actually did some planning for defense decoupling from the US. CERN was actually established as a Euro Manhattan Project somewhat on the shelf/behind the 'Break in Case of War' glass.
What happened? Generations of dependence on American firepower and rejiggered WWI/WWII models eventually collided into completely predictable, and probably intended demographic and economic realities.
Cosmopolitan fantasies aside (and the Euros, to their credit, didn't invade nations on grounds of the MacDonalds Thesis, they were likely beyond that) states without borders or credible militaries, are rarely credible states. Perhaps, like the Japanese they don't need an Army, or the Chinese, they don't really need a Navy, but there has to be the combat power to mobilize, and then use to execute.
Another point, shared trans-Atlantically. The consolidation of the military industrial complexes on both sides of the Atlantic has created these dynamics. Boeing can currently barely build 737 and 767 aircraft, in newest case, designs that date to the 1970s. This says little confidently in their ability to build a modern aircraft. In Europe, the slow shrink to zero in the defense sector eliminated just about any design criteria (possibly outside of France) of weapons other than as a jobs program and engineering industrial base preservation exercise.
Finns have told me that they have not forgotten Russian aircraft flying down Mannerheimentia Street (the main drag in downtown Helsinki) dropping bombs, They have not forgotten the loss of Karelia, later used by the Russians as a dumping ground and now uninhabitable. They have not forgotten the loss of 35,000 Finnish men to the invasion by a million Soviet troops.
“Unfortunately, at the beginning, almost nothing could be ordered due to budgetary reasons...”
Spoken of Germany but translates well to every emerging progressive government on the planet.
Governments that self glut on taxpayer monies and self gorge on ever increasing size and bureaucratic paperwork to justify their ever increasing size. What a swirling sewer we have created for ourselves. Thank you FDR for the eternal gift of ever-increasing government.
One add'l evil that you omitted but I think merits mention: the ever decreasing return on government spending. At home here in the US, our govt requires more and more resources to deliver less and less value to its citizens, creating a negative feedback loop that actively contributes to isolationist and defeatist sentiment. "We can't do half the things we're already entrusting to government (by any sane measure of quality), what do you mean you want it to do more?!?"
I fully agree, but decided I couldn't comment sufficiently clear to express my contempt for our at home in the US federal government and virtually all 50 state governments that have adopted the spend and waste mode of government. Thanks for helping out...
I think this is where “the purpose of a system is what it consistently produces” is a helpful heuristic. I can only conclude, based on long but consistent observation, that the purpose of our modern government(s) is to redistribute tax revenue to a variety of jobs and elite enrichment programs. And hey, if every once in a while you happen to get a DDG or a new jet as a byproduct, that’s a nice cherry on top!
CDR SAL, The old DIME / PMESII constructs we used to use to set up wargame scenarios would be nicely initialized by your article. Hard to over emphasize the impact Soviet / Russian compramat has had on political movements, politicians and government bureaucrats in Europe (especially Germany). When people act in a manner that seems to against their own interests (eg. German de-industrialization via "renewable" energy), you have to conclude they are not very good at critical thinking (Green zealots and magical unicorn energy thinking), in it to make a short term buck, er, Euro, by selling a product you know to be a bad investment, or deliberately sabotaging their own country (several reasons for that are available). You can't rule out all three at once, of course. The Venn diagrams overlap considerably. Too many years of working with NATO / ACT created a lot of distrust and lack of respect for their work ethic and competence. Only speaking for myself, of course.
"....yet the only significant naval presence directly countering this threat comes from the non-Continental European powers of the USA, the UK, and a minor assist from France."
"What are they doing to meet the greatest security challenge since the Cold War?"
I think first thing the German people need to do is rid themselves of a foreign minister who believes their greatest security threat is climate change.
Baerbock says climate crisis is biggest security problem
Do not underestimate the effect that changes in climate have on population movement. Sub-Saharan Africa is one of the regions most vulnerable to the effects of climate change and could see large increases in both internal and cross-border migration. When it is move or starve, folks move. Large movements of people is a security issue. For example many folks see the movement of people across the Texas border as an issue for the U.S.
Lets imagine that the US drops from NATO's 5th article (explicitly or implicity, its irrelevant) right in the middle of the biggest European war since 1945 and leaves just a... "phone number".
What happens?
I can see three different scenarios (feel happy to ad more of those):
1 - Poland, Germany, the UK and France all sing kumbaya, join forces, deliver enough support to Ukraine in order for it to "win" (or at least to survive). Every one but Vlad lives happily ever after - Suspect that this scenario is just slightly more realistic than a snowstorm in Ougadougou, but we can be hopeful...
2 - Ukraine, Moldova, the Baltic States, Poland and Romenia "kow tow" to Vlad. Vlad is happy. Vlad bosses everyone from the Chinese border to the French one (stops in this last border because... well... M51 SLBM's) - If i am reading the Poles and the Ukrainians well... This will happen when hell freezes over.
3 - "Those radioactive mushrooms are actually cheaper than fielding several dozen armoured divisions".
Europe does not work together, the Poles, the Ukranians AND at least the Turks get their own radioactive mushrooms thingy's... The ugly truth is that west of the Bielorussian the time needed to develop those is measured from "a few years" to a "few months". This scenario seems... realistic? Well... Yes.
Now, you are sitting in Seoul, Taipei, Tokyo or Riade seing this soap opera unfolding and options 2 or 3 happen. What do you do?
Good analysis. This has been coming for some time--Germany et al has allowed its government to be controlled by silly greenies and other leftist fantasists with the entirely predictable results noted. Of course this could never happen in the USA . Of course......
"...a Russian army is about to enter its third year of an imperial war of aggression for territorial expansion."
Really? That's why Putin moved into Ukraine? Nothing about earlier assurance by James Baker Ukraine wouldn't be offered NATO membership? No assaults by 'neo-nazis' against ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine?
The credibility of the rest of the article is crippled by the overreach in the opening sentence.
Not all of us refer to you as a Russian troll, Billy, your Russian sympathies not withstanding. I think most of simply don't accept the absurd casus belli invoked by Putin. He has imperialist ambitions, not convinced about the Russians at large.
And corruption is part of the human condition. As long as we have had government officials, some of them have been willing to accept envelopes of cash. There is not a nation in the world without corruption. "Thou shalt not steal," says the book, but folks have been stealing since the time of Moses.
Sure, most folks are honest and upright, but, there is always someone just a little bit dirty. You can find instances of corruption in any nation; but that does not mean the entire nation is corrupt. The folks who shout "Ukraine is corrupt!" are just doing Putin's bidding. Even a corrupt nation is entitled to Sovereignty and Territorial Integrity.
If you object to the characterization of his ambition as anything other than "imperial", what are you suggesting? A latent desire to preempt NATO membership? Actual Nazis in Ukraine? To liberate an oppressed minority of ethnic Russians?
No way in hell Ukraine becomes a NATO member. There are no Nazis empowered by a Jewish president. The ethnic Russians aren't nearly as helpless as you suggest. These "provocations" have been invoked many times now in different AOs by the same man, Putin.
At this point, I would suggest it is out of the question for very practical reasons. Before this war? Maybe. Ukraine's internal issues made them wholly unsuitable for membership. That rhetoric was ratcheted up a notch during the war's first year, now not so much. Zelensky just came home from Zurich with empty pockets, remember.
Nazis? Come on, man. Resisting Russian aggression does not make one a Nazi. For all the truly reasonable concerns the Russians might have, Ukrainian Nazis are not one. Nothing gets the home folks fired up like memories of the Great Patriotic War. The imperial angle may be overplayed, I grant you, but the current war in Ukraine is one that reeks of imperial ambition. Frankly, I'm very unimpressed by the Russian military and am certain they would fail miserably if insanity prevails and they attacked a NATO nation.
I agree at this point, out of the question, but after 2015, very much in play, despite Ukraine's internal issues. Or maybe it was just a ploy to use Ukraine to wear down Russia all along. I wouldn't put it past some people in the US government to dangle that carrot in front of Ukrainians in bad faith. But at this point, no use throwing good money after bad.
The Azovs (what's left of them) are Nazi, little to dispute that. And many Ukrainians joined the Nazis during WWII. Canada rediscovered that recently.
Granted, the Russians didn't get off to a good start, but they smartly withdrew to defensible lines and let the Ukrainians march right up to their defenses to get chewed up.
Now put yourself in Russian shoes, what would you make of the talk in places like the UK & Sweden about conscription and war?
What do I make of such talk? I say it's 1938 redux. Appeasement never works. Negotiate in good faith or pay a price, countries have agency.
The Azovs and Ukrainians who joined the SS are more historical relicts than a modern reality. Beside that compare how many Ukrainians fought in the Red Army or were partisans and ultimately defeated true Nazis.
"There are no Nazis empowered by a Jewish president."
Are you blind? Ukrainian SS regiment rune overlying Himmler's 'black sun".
How 'bout FBI reporting they (AZOV) are training US white supremacist?
“the Azov Battalion is a paramilitary unit of the Ukrainian National Guard ” … “is believed to have participated in training and radicalizing United States-based white supremacy organizations.”.
I assure you that I'm not blind to much at all at this point. Wow, what do you know, mythical white supremacists in the US are calling on the expertise of virtually extinct Ukrainian goat fuckers. Consider the source of the report.
Ukrainian SS regiment? Now? Consider the source of that, as well.
An assurance by James Baker that was most definitively overtaken by multiple Russian actions by 2007. The famous "not one inch" was overtaken with accession of the reunification of Germany and integration of the Balts and Visegrad states into NATO. The fact that the Russians have seen Western actions as provocative doesn't immediately suggest that Russian aggression is justified.
Germany seems to want to offshore that whole “functional military” thingee by funding and arming Ukraine. But they also seem to want to keep the tight peace-dividend spending restriction while simultaneously increasing production, and simul-simultaneously build industrial output of icky munitions and armaments without using any more power than windmills and solar (in Northern Europe!!!) can deliver.
Were it not a ding to their “industrial powerhouse” self image they’d probable do better to just add on to the Polish orders to South Korea for shooty stuff.
And all of that does nothing towards the naval issues our host raises.
He's a breath of fresh air but is his influence sufficient to move the ball meaningfully? Seems like "the establishment" has different designs in mind.
Oh, he’s definitely not. I’m glad at least about one good politician, especially compared to his predecessor. But Scholz is still Scholz, and Germany afraid of Russia, so…
Germany is dying on the alter of climate change. Germany is dying on the alter of immigration.
Not looking good for Germany. And we thought Italy was the sick man of Europe.
Europe is changed. We can’t see it because we are too close to the situation and blinded by confirmation bias. The threat to Europe is not Russia. It’s the Islamic invasion and European guilt….
Let's keep the jews out of this.
I'm referring to Morgenthau. Germans have their own ideas about going back to nature, they don't need any help in rolling back their development.
Supposedly Ike liked his plan and contributed to it.
Billy is a well-known Russian troll. Folks on this blog have suggested he is an American-educated Russian civil servant.
Hopefully. Poland has a quiet nuclear program going for when we walk away from NATO. With a reasonable nuclear deterrent and the conventional arms buildup the have in progress, the Russians will leave well enough alone after Ukraine, whatever the outcome there. The US is going to walk away; it is only a matter of time.
Poland has a larger tank force than Germany. Germany has 4 tank bns. Apparently one of which has no tanks. Poland has 15 bns
Interestingly, in the dark ages of the 1950s, the Euros actually did some planning for defense decoupling from the US. CERN was actually established as a Euro Manhattan Project somewhat on the shelf/behind the 'Break in Case of War' glass.
What happened? Generations of dependence on American firepower and rejiggered WWI/WWII models eventually collided into completely predictable, and probably intended demographic and economic realities.
Cosmopolitan fantasies aside (and the Euros, to their credit, didn't invade nations on grounds of the MacDonalds Thesis, they were likely beyond that) states without borders or credible militaries, are rarely credible states. Perhaps, like the Japanese they don't need an Army, or the Chinese, they don't really need a Navy, but there has to be the combat power to mobilize, and then use to execute.
Another point, shared trans-Atlantically. The consolidation of the military industrial complexes on both sides of the Atlantic has created these dynamics. Boeing can currently barely build 737 and 767 aircraft, in newest case, designs that date to the 1970s. This says little confidently in their ability to build a modern aircraft. In Europe, the slow shrink to zero in the defense sector eliminated just about any design criteria (possibly outside of France) of weapons other than as a jobs program and engineering industrial base preservation exercise.
"The Baltic Republics and Poland are doing their fair share, but they lack the population and GDP to really make a point to Russia."
Sweden and Finland are awake and realistic
The worst thing for both countries will be invitation to the NATO defense Tragedy of the Commons.
Finns have told me that they have not forgotten Russian aircraft flying down Mannerheimentia Street (the main drag in downtown Helsinki) dropping bombs, They have not forgotten the loss of Karelia, later used by the Russians as a dumping ground and now uninhabitable. They have not forgotten the loss of 35,000 Finnish men to the invasion by a million Soviet troops.
nor forgotten the Battle of Suomussalmi
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Suomussalmi
“Unfortunately, at the beginning, almost nothing could be ordered due to budgetary reasons...”
Spoken of Germany but translates well to every emerging progressive government on the planet.
Governments that self glut on taxpayer monies and self gorge on ever increasing size and bureaucratic paperwork to justify their ever increasing size. What a swirling sewer we have created for ourselves. Thank you FDR for the eternal gift of ever-increasing government.
One add'l evil that you omitted but I think merits mention: the ever decreasing return on government spending. At home here in the US, our govt requires more and more resources to deliver less and less value to its citizens, creating a negative feedback loop that actively contributes to isolationist and defeatist sentiment. "We can't do half the things we're already entrusting to government (by any sane measure of quality), what do you mean you want it to do more?!?"
I fully agree, but decided I couldn't comment sufficiently clear to express my contempt for our at home in the US federal government and virtually all 50 state governments that have adopted the spend and waste mode of government. Thanks for helping out...
I think this is where “the purpose of a system is what it consistently produces” is a helpful heuristic. I can only conclude, based on long but consistent observation, that the purpose of our modern government(s) is to redistribute tax revenue to a variety of jobs and elite enrichment programs. And hey, if every once in a while you happen to get a DDG or a new jet as a byproduct, that’s a nice cherry on top!
CDR SAL, The old DIME / PMESII constructs we used to use to set up wargame scenarios would be nicely initialized by your article. Hard to over emphasize the impact Soviet / Russian compramat has had on political movements, politicians and government bureaucrats in Europe (especially Germany). When people act in a manner that seems to against their own interests (eg. German de-industrialization via "renewable" energy), you have to conclude they are not very good at critical thinking (Green zealots and magical unicorn energy thinking), in it to make a short term buck, er, Euro, by selling a product you know to be a bad investment, or deliberately sabotaging their own country (several reasons for that are available). You can't rule out all three at once, of course. The Venn diagrams overlap considerably. Too many years of working with NATO / ACT created a lot of distrust and lack of respect for their work ethic and competence. Only speaking for myself, of course.
"....yet the only significant naval presence directly countering this threat comes from the non-Continental European powers of the USA, the UK, and a minor assist from France."
Sir? India would like to speak to you.
"What are they doing to meet the greatest security challenge since the Cold War?"
I think first thing the German people need to do is rid themselves of a foreign minister who believes their greatest security threat is climate change.
Baerbock says climate crisis is biggest security problem
https://www.deutschland.de/en/news/baerbock-says-climate-crisis-is-biggest-security-problem
10 just like him ready to replace him. Can't fix it until transnational organizations are brought to heel.
Do not underestimate the effect that changes in climate have on population movement. Sub-Saharan Africa is one of the regions most vulnerable to the effects of climate change and could see large increases in both internal and cross-border migration. When it is move or starve, folks move. Large movements of people is a security issue. For example many folks see the movement of people across the Texas border as an issue for the U.S.
Cutting child mortality rates & malaria related deaths in Sub Saharan Africa has more to do with it than "cLiMaTe ChAnGe".
AHOY! Nuclear Proliferation ahoy!
Lets imagine that the US drops from NATO's 5th article (explicitly or implicity, its irrelevant) right in the middle of the biggest European war since 1945 and leaves just a... "phone number".
What happens?
I can see three different scenarios (feel happy to ad more of those):
1 - Poland, Germany, the UK and France all sing kumbaya, join forces, deliver enough support to Ukraine in order for it to "win" (or at least to survive). Every one but Vlad lives happily ever after - Suspect that this scenario is just slightly more realistic than a snowstorm in Ougadougou, but we can be hopeful...
2 - Ukraine, Moldova, the Baltic States, Poland and Romenia "kow tow" to Vlad. Vlad is happy. Vlad bosses everyone from the Chinese border to the French one (stops in this last border because... well... M51 SLBM's) - If i am reading the Poles and the Ukrainians well... This will happen when hell freezes over.
3 - "Those radioactive mushrooms are actually cheaper than fielding several dozen armoured divisions".
Europe does not work together, the Poles, the Ukranians AND at least the Turks get their own radioactive mushrooms thingy's... The ugly truth is that west of the Bielorussian the time needed to develop those is measured from "a few years" to a "few months". This scenario seems... realistic? Well... Yes.
Now, you are sitting in Seoul, Taipei, Tokyo or Riade seing this soap opera unfolding and options 2 or 3 happen. What do you do?
Cheers
Good analysis. This has been coming for some time--Germany et al has allowed its government to be controlled by silly greenies and other leftist fantasists with the entirely predictable results noted. Of course this could never happen in the USA . Of course......
"...a Russian army is about to enter its third year of an imperial war of aggression for territorial expansion."
Really? That's why Putin moved into Ukraine? Nothing about earlier assurance by James Baker Ukraine wouldn't be offered NATO membership? No assaults by 'neo-nazis' against ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine?
The credibility of the rest of the article is crippled by the overreach in the opening sentence.
'cept Ukraine does not meet the democratic standards of government for NATO membership vis' a vis' that whole corruption thingy.
Many NATO countries are trending that way.
That may well be true.....but, not at the time of their accession.
As true as that is, bringing that up will just have some midwits on the porch label you a Russian troll.
Not all of us refer to you as a Russian troll, Billy, your Russian sympathies not withstanding. I think most of simply don't accept the absurd casus belli invoked by Putin. He has imperialist ambitions, not convinced about the Russians at large.
And corruption is part of the human condition. As long as we have had government officials, some of them have been willing to accept envelopes of cash. There is not a nation in the world without corruption. "Thou shalt not steal," says the book, but folks have been stealing since the time of Moses.
Sure, most folks are honest and upright, but, there is always someone just a little bit dirty. You can find instances of corruption in any nation; but that does not mean the entire nation is corrupt. The folks who shout "Ukraine is corrupt!" are just doing Putin's bidding. Even a corrupt nation is entitled to Sovereignty and Territorial Integrity.
" Every man has his price."
Ted DiBiase
If you object to the characterization of his ambition as anything other than "imperial", what are you suggesting? A latent desire to preempt NATO membership? Actual Nazis in Ukraine? To liberate an oppressed minority of ethnic Russians?
No way in hell Ukraine becomes a NATO member. There are no Nazis empowered by a Jewish president. The ethnic Russians aren't nearly as helpless as you suggest. These "provocations" have been invoked many times now in different AOs by the same man, Putin.
All three have merit. But not just Russian minorities, Hungarians minorities have been affected by Ukrainian measures.
Is it so out of the question that Ukraine becomes a NATO member? So much from the West indicates a strong desire to have them join.
Empowered is not the word I would use to describe a situation where a Jew sends Nazis off to die by the thousands.
Never said the ethnic Russians in Ukraine were helpless, but it was always in Russia's interests to lend them a hand.
I recognize that Russia has interests, and will vigorously pursue those interests, but the whole imperial angle is way overplayed.
At this point, I would suggest it is out of the question for very practical reasons. Before this war? Maybe. Ukraine's internal issues made them wholly unsuitable for membership. That rhetoric was ratcheted up a notch during the war's first year, now not so much. Zelensky just came home from Zurich with empty pockets, remember.
Nazis? Come on, man. Resisting Russian aggression does not make one a Nazi. For all the truly reasonable concerns the Russians might have, Ukrainian Nazis are not one. Nothing gets the home folks fired up like memories of the Great Patriotic War. The imperial angle may be overplayed, I grant you, but the current war in Ukraine is one that reeks of imperial ambition. Frankly, I'm very unimpressed by the Russian military and am certain they would fail miserably if insanity prevails and they attacked a NATO nation.
I agree at this point, out of the question, but after 2015, very much in play, despite Ukraine's internal issues. Or maybe it was just a ploy to use Ukraine to wear down Russia all along. I wouldn't put it past some people in the US government to dangle that carrot in front of Ukrainians in bad faith. But at this point, no use throwing good money after bad.
The Azovs (what's left of them) are Nazi, little to dispute that. And many Ukrainians joined the Nazis during WWII. Canada rediscovered that recently.
Granted, the Russians didn't get off to a good start, but they smartly withdrew to defensible lines and let the Ukrainians march right up to their defenses to get chewed up.
Now put yourself in Russian shoes, what would you make of the talk in places like the UK & Sweden about conscription and war?
What do I make of such talk? I say it's 1938 redux. Appeasement never works. Negotiate in good faith or pay a price, countries have agency.
The Azovs and Ukrainians who joined the SS are more historical relicts than a modern reality. Beside that compare how many Ukrainians fought in the Red Army or were partisans and ultimately defeated true Nazis.
After the Minsk accords were revealed by Merkel to be a ruse to give Ukraine time to rearm, who can Russia trust to negotiate in good faith?
"There are no Nazis empowered by a Jewish president."
Are you blind? Ukrainian SS regiment rune overlying Himmler's 'black sun".
How 'bout FBI reporting they (AZOV) are training US white supremacist?
“the Azov Battalion is a paramilitary unit of the Ukrainian National Guard ” … “is believed to have participated in training and radicalizing United States-based white supremacy organizations.”.
https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/RAM-rioting-Rundo-et-al-COMPLAINT133873.pdf
I assure you that I'm not blind to much at all at this point. Wow, what do you know, mythical white supremacists in the US are calling on the expertise of virtually extinct Ukrainian goat fuckers. Consider the source of the report.
Ukrainian SS regiment? Now? Consider the source of that, as well.
Had I written the article, I might have led off with "...alleging provocations, a Russian army is about to enter its third year of revanchism."
And that picture...What are the Mormons doing with Leopard 2 tanks?
An assurance by James Baker that was most definitively overtaken by multiple Russian actions by 2007. The famous "not one inch" was overtaken with accession of the reunification of Germany and integration of the Balts and Visegrad states into NATO. The fact that the Russians have seen Western actions as provocative doesn't immediately suggest that Russian aggression is justified.
Germany seems to want to offshore that whole “functional military” thingee by funding and arming Ukraine. But they also seem to want to keep the tight peace-dividend spending restriction while simultaneously increasing production, and simul-simultaneously build industrial output of icky munitions and armaments without using any more power than windmills and solar (in Northern Europe!!!) can deliver.
Were it not a ding to their “industrial powerhouse” self image they’d probable do better to just add on to the Polish orders to South Korea for shooty stuff.
And all of that does nothing towards the naval issues our host raises.
What to do? Yeah good question.
Germany seems to want the whole thing to go away so they can resume trading with Russia.
Germany has been thoroughly emasculated and will no rise again.
Nice.
In all of this, I think Boris Pistorius is the unexpected pleasant surprise, especially after the previous one. But otherwise…
He's a breath of fresh air but is his influence sufficient to move the ball meaningfully? Seems like "the establishment" has different designs in mind.
Oh, he’s definitely not. I’m glad at least about one good politician, especially compared to his predecessor. But Scholz is still Scholz, and Germany afraid of Russia, so…
Germany is dying on the alter of climate change. Germany is dying on the alter of immigration.
Not looking good for Germany. And we thought Italy was the sick man of Europe.
Europe is changed. We can’t see it because we are too close to the situation and blinded by confirmation bias. The threat to Europe is not Russia. It’s the Islamic invasion and European guilt….
...yes but, the MIC has to keep the racket going, European duty and all its career enhancing features is too good to let go.
Truth