I know next to nothing about things maritime, except having been ship's physician for National Geographic a couple of times. My knowledge of things martial is limited to some years as an ANG flight surgeon. But I love your posts and learn something every time I read them. I am a 59 year old emergency physician very anxious about the coming war. Tried to offer my services to the USNR but they were not particularly interested. I suspect when things go badly, I may receive a call. Keep up the great writing!
It will likely be true. Prior to WW2 my grandfather was a 53 year old doctor living in Honolulu. On Dec. 7th he rushed to Pearl Harbor to tend to the wounded and dying. Gave up his private practice to become a Navy doctor. Ran all Navy medical facilities in Hawaii and was Nimitz's personal doctor.
I assume the reference is to the Merchant Marine Act of 1936. The Ocean Reform Shipping Act of 2022 appears to deal with issues like detention and demurrage not keeping the Navy combat ready. Does the DOD and the Navy even talk to the DOT and MARAD?
I suspect if china is the aggressor their commercial ship movements will have radically changed just prior to war. Their docked ships may also get orders to scuttle to hinder our port operations.
Stupid is as stupid does. If the war were conventional up to that point, the CCP would have, effectively, just ordered the launch of nuclear attacks on Beijing.
I agree, but as you said, stupid is as stupid does. China probably thinks the US is weak and that Joe wouldn't fight back and after a nuke would surrender.
The Japanese also thought that. And got two Nukes LOL
Thanks for this Sal. Solid work. Perhaps PLAN SALAMANDER II could add Letters of Marque to those interested in bringing vessels to CONUS from say...coastal South American waters.
etters of Marque were used durign a period when merchants with guns were comparable to warships, at least the lightly armed ones (age of sail historians please correct me). I'm not sure there's a yacht out there that could go toe to toe with a Chinese Nava Militia cutter. Now, maybe some weapons could be added on ....
Most Maritime Militia craft are fishing boats, sometimes with small arms, often apparently not. The Chinese Coast Guard uses purpose-built vessels. As Somalia showed, it is perfectly possible to capture a huge merchant ship with a dozen guys in a speedboat if the merchant ship isn't armed in some way. So don't know, but I feel safe in predicting that our current state department with freak the hell out at the idea.
This is where I think there should be an expansion of the USCG's Port security Units along with the US Navy Reserve where they can pick up VSBB missions as well. It can be a joint USNR and USCG PSU/VSBB team. Maybe at the same time, I believe the USCG should beef up the Auxiliary who often runs harbor patrols and HARPAT patrols on shore and on the water as well.
Not so much the PSUs, but instead the Maritime Safety & Security Teams, the Maritime Security Response Team, and the Tactical Law Enforcement Teams. Those guys are the subject matter experts on contested boardings.
With the right "paperwork" U.S. Security Contractors could hire and equip former USN and USCG with these skill sets and turn them loose all over the High Seas.
The Chinese will see angary coming, too, and will not only try to clear out their own shipping before Der Tag, but take any measures they can to clear our waters of neutrals. Maybe direct action, maybe some distraction like hiring them away, or throwing a barbecue and all neutral ships are invited, or spreading plague in our harbors, whatever.
Intelligence, specifically Naval Intelligence, needs to keep a weather eye out and imaginations set to maximum. Similar vulns may attach to CRAF, and to anything else of a borrow-beg-steal nature.
Also, the Chinese will undoubtedly angary right back scooping up anything they can reach.
We get to that point, and we probably will, you will find a whole bunch of retired sailors that are willing to come back in to man merchies. I may be a bit long in the tooth for combat duties, but I can still run a watch section.
well, not after my second retirement from the Navy... But if WWII or Korea, or... was any clue, once the excrement hits the rotary air mover, all that will go out the window.
Don't be so sure. Wokeism is a religion. The ships can sink before the DEI dogma is abandoned. The problem is that the people who spew out this nonsense do not suffer any consequences. Only the sailors below deck and the Marines on the front line.
well... I may be wrong, but I really think that the number of true believers in that shit are small. I think that after the first disastrous battle, there will be a sudden change in the very high leadership (the perfumed princes) and people who were privately railing against all the horrible things they've done to our military will step out of the shadows. There's a lot of people who hold one opinion in public, so as to keep from getting fired, and another in private.
Take a look at what happened to "the gun club" by mid '42. (as a bubblehead, the bullshit that they foisted on our submarines pre war is a special pet peeve of mine)
I think Pete is right. Think of the Woke as a bad case of scrotal ringworm. They're going to cling like barnacles because outside their special little sinecures they got nothing. No pay check, no power, no way of superiorizing themselves at the expense of others. /// A bunch of us retirees tried to volunteer after 911 but they had plenty of Reserves and National Guard. It'd take a Ukrainian level of military disaster before they'd start calling up people like me. But I know lots of guy's who'd serve in any capacity and even buy their own size XXXL cammies and orthotic boots. But I get it...not many of us can clench our fists in the air and shout "WOLVERINES!" credibly anymore. I dunno, probably better for us sit an overwatch on our lawns and clean & lube our Model 10 S&W's and Yugo SKS's and serve in the Homefront Irregulars. It may come to that.
Also begs the question, if we see Chinese-flagged or -owned cargo ships and aircraft suddenly not entering U.S. and allied ports and waters, is that indications and warnings?
since we're still in the planning stages for this then we can also spare some time to examine the implications of removing this much shipping from commercial activity, identify what the most likely cargoes might be, and identify which ships are moving priority cargoes and perhaps should be left to go about their business, or if Chinese ships are they carrying anything really crucial that we will need to identify and lock in alternate sources? Also, since it might not be just ships that we need, is anyone familiar with the Cold War era CRAFT program that set up the possible requisition of commercial aircraft for use by the Armed Services and is it still a live program?
CRAF (Civil Reserve Air Fleet) is still around and gets used from time to time. I know CRAF airplanes supported the Gulf War 1990-91. After that, I think there were some call-ups but not sure.
It is still a very live program. If the balloon goes up this bad, expect every commercial airline company to suddenly have their whole air fleets conscripted.
There was also the COOP program in which the navy coughed up part of the cost of a trawler, and in return if TSHTF that trawler and it’s crew got handed the paravanes and gear, and just became mine sweepers.
You need to talk about the MSC and the Merchant Marine. The ships are often old, but they’ve got competent American sailors. Also, how many of the ships coming in will be RoRos capable of carrying Abrams tanks?
And do our merchant crews have Manpads for when the enemy helicopters in their privateeres? I know the answer to that. They have a few small arms and people with a week’s firearms training, but Stingers? Nope.
The answer is you don't. You create a merchant marine fleet over time by producing real goods at home that the rest of the world wants to buy. You provide indirect subsidies for that fleet by building the necessary supporting infrastructure in return for ships that can easily be converted into troop carriers and supply ships manned by American crews should fighting break out.
Yes, foreign cruise ships, container ships, tankers and Ro-Ros can be commandeered and converted and reservists can be mobilized to operate them, but that would take precious time.
Sal, this might turn out to be the most valuable thing you have ever written. BZ.
I don't dispute your sentiment here. But Sal has definitely written many other things that moved entire needles.
If someone takes notice of it and follows through...
I know next to nothing about things maritime, except having been ship's physician for National Geographic a couple of times. My knowledge of things martial is limited to some years as an ANG flight surgeon. But I love your posts and learn something every time I read them. I am a 59 year old emergency physician very anxious about the coming war. Tried to offer my services to the USNR but they were not particularly interested. I suspect when things go badly, I may receive a call. Keep up the great writing!
It will likely be true. Prior to WW2 my grandfather was a 53 year old doctor living in Honolulu. On Dec. 7th he rushed to Pearl Harbor to tend to the wounded and dying. Gave up his private practice to become a Navy doctor. Ran all Navy medical facilities in Hawaii and was Nimitz's personal doctor.
Bravo Zulu!
"... starting in 1936 when smart people in Congress saw the need for the coming war - we see nothing like that happening now."
Humm, maybe we don't have the smart people in Congress. Yeah, I think that's it.
Thanks for the reminder about the right of angary, not the truth of the state of Congress.
I assume the reference is to the Merchant Marine Act of 1936. The Ocean Reform Shipping Act of 2022 appears to deal with issues like detention and demurrage not keeping the Navy combat ready. Does the DOD and the Navy even talk to the DOT and MARAD?
I suspect if china is the aggressor their commercial ship movements will have radically changed just prior to war. Their docked ships may also get orders to scuttle to hinder our port operations.
Depends. How closely do we observe to notice say a RORO dropping ‘things’ out the ramp as it goes down the shipping channel to seattle and san diego?
Think also about attacks on critical port infrastructure like cranes, for example.
China may just send a container ship with a Nuke on board.
If it is detained and searched it may go off.
Stupid is as stupid does. If the war were conventional up to that point, the CCP would have, effectively, just ordered the launch of nuclear attacks on Beijing.
I agree, but as you said, stupid is as stupid does. China probably thinks the US is weak and that Joe wouldn't fight back and after a nuke would surrender.
The Japanese also thought that. And got two Nukes LOL
I’m certain they KNOW Biden is weak. The only unknown in their equation is “What direction will a rat go when cornered?”
Yes and Joe is surrounded by Milley clones who would tell China if we prepared to nuke them.
Same with China's rats.
Thanks for this Sal. Solid work. Perhaps PLAN SALAMANDER II could add Letters of Marque to those interested in bringing vessels to CONUS from say...coastal South American waters.
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-55.1/centery:3.6/zoom:3
Assuming a victory, just repay the owners of the impounded with spoils. Assuming defeat, repayment is not going to be a pressing issue.
Excellent article. Would be interested in your thoughts on issuing letters of marque in a war with China.
etters of Marque were used durign a period when merchants with guns were comparable to warships, at least the lightly armed ones (age of sail historians please correct me). I'm not sure there's a yacht out there that could go toe to toe with a Chinese Nava Militia cutter. Now, maybe some weapons could be added on ....
Most Maritime Militia craft are fishing boats, sometimes with small arms, often apparently not. The Chinese Coast Guard uses purpose-built vessels. As Somalia showed, it is perfectly possible to capture a huge merchant ship with a dozen guys in a speedboat if the merchant ship isn't armed in some way. So don't know, but I feel safe in predicting that our current state department with freak the hell out at the idea.
Im sure theres someone in an alphabet agency, CIA maybe, that has some kind of pipeline for "borrowed" military gear...
" sure!! .50cals, stingers, maybe even a couple Abrams, Patriots, or a CIWS if you give me a week!!"
Now to just get that phone number...!!!
This is where I think there should be an expansion of the USCG's Port security Units along with the US Navy Reserve where they can pick up VSBB missions as well. It can be a joint USNR and USCG PSU/VSBB team. Maybe at the same time, I believe the USCG should beef up the Auxiliary who often runs harbor patrols and HARPAT patrols on shore and on the water as well.
Not so much the PSUs, but instead the Maritime Safety & Security Teams, the Maritime Security Response Team, and the Tactical Law Enforcement Teams. Those guys are the subject matter experts on contested boardings.
Remember these acronyms:
MSST
MSRT
TACLET
With the right "paperwork" U.S. Security Contractors could hire and equip former USN and USCG with these skill sets and turn them loose all over the High Seas.
Plan Salamander. Well, POTUS will have to ask, "Where is the Salamder?" instead of, "Where are the Carriers?" 😂
The Chinese will see angary coming, too, and will not only try to clear out their own shipping before Der Tag, but take any measures they can to clear our waters of neutrals. Maybe direct action, maybe some distraction like hiring them away, or throwing a barbecue and all neutral ships are invited, or spreading plague in our harbors, whatever.
Intelligence, specifically Naval Intelligence, needs to keep a weather eye out and imaginations set to maximum. Similar vulns may attach to CRAF, and to anything else of a borrow-beg-steal nature.
Also, the Chinese will undoubtedly angary right back scooping up anything they can reach.
We get to that point, and we probably will, you will find a whole bunch of retired sailors that are willing to come back in to man merchies. I may be a bit long in the tooth for combat duties, but I can still run a watch section.
You probably don't meet DEI requirements and therefore your country has no need of your services even if you can fix a broken piston.
well, not after my second retirement from the Navy... But if WWII or Korea, or... was any clue, once the excrement hits the rotary air mover, all that will go out the window.
Don't be so sure. Wokeism is a religion. The ships can sink before the DEI dogma is abandoned. The problem is that the people who spew out this nonsense do not suffer any consequences. Only the sailors below deck and the Marines on the front line.
well... I may be wrong, but I really think that the number of true believers in that shit are small. I think that after the first disastrous battle, there will be a sudden change in the very high leadership (the perfumed princes) and people who were privately railing against all the horrible things they've done to our military will step out of the shadows. There's a lot of people who hold one opinion in public, so as to keep from getting fired, and another in private.
Take a look at what happened to "the gun club" by mid '42. (as a bubblehead, the bullshit that they foisted on our submarines pre war is a special pet peeve of mine)
I hope you are right. I just wish we could alter course without suffering another Pearl Harbor or 911 or worse.
So say we all.
I think Pete is right. Think of the Woke as a bad case of scrotal ringworm. They're going to cling like barnacles because outside their special little sinecures they got nothing. No pay check, no power, no way of superiorizing themselves at the expense of others. /// A bunch of us retirees tried to volunteer after 911 but they had plenty of Reserves and National Guard. It'd take a Ukrainian level of military disaster before they'd start calling up people like me. But I know lots of guy's who'd serve in any capacity and even buy their own size XXXL cammies and orthotic boots. But I get it...not many of us can clench our fists in the air and shout "WOLVERINES!" credibly anymore. I dunno, probably better for us sit an overwatch on our lawns and clean & lube our Model 10 S&W's and Yugo SKS's and serve in the Homefront Irregulars. It may come to that.
Let's do it with airlift, too!
Also begs the question, if we see Chinese-flagged or -owned cargo ships and aircraft suddenly not entering U.S. and allied ports and waters, is that indications and warnings?
DING DING DING
Winner Winner Chicken Dinner for warnings and indications!!
since we're still in the planning stages for this then we can also spare some time to examine the implications of removing this much shipping from commercial activity, identify what the most likely cargoes might be, and identify which ships are moving priority cargoes and perhaps should be left to go about their business, or if Chinese ships are they carrying anything really crucial that we will need to identify and lock in alternate sources? Also, since it might not be just ships that we need, is anyone familiar with the Cold War era CRAFT program that set up the possible requisition of commercial aircraft for use by the Armed Services and is it still a live program?
CRAF (Civil Reserve Air Fleet) is still around and gets used from time to time. I know CRAF airplanes supported the Gulf War 1990-91. After that, I think there were some call-ups but not sure.
It is still a very live program. If the balloon goes up this bad, expect every commercial airline company to suddenly have their whole air fleets conscripted.
There was also the COOP program in which the navy coughed up part of the cost of a trawler, and in return if TSHTF that trawler and it’s crew got handed the paravanes and gear, and just became mine sweepers.
You need to talk about the MSC and the Merchant Marine. The ships are often old, but they’ve got competent American sailors. Also, how many of the ships coming in will be RoRos capable of carrying Abrams tanks?
And do our merchant crews have Manpads for when the enemy helicopters in their privateeres? I know the answer to that. They have a few small arms and people with a week’s firearms training, but Stingers? Nope.
Competent? Hahahaha. I would not hire a single unlicensed person from that fleet and would take a very hard look at anyone else before hiring.
The answer is you don't. You create a merchant marine fleet over time by producing real goods at home that the rest of the world wants to buy. You provide indirect subsidies for that fleet by building the necessary supporting infrastructure in return for ships that can easily be converted into troop carriers and supply ships manned by American crews should fighting break out.
Yes, foreign cruise ships, container ships, tankers and Ro-Ros can be commandeered and converted and reservists can be mobilized to operate them, but that would take precious time.