I went to the Korean Air Force staff college as an exchange student and there was a Taiwanese Air Force officer in the class. Great guy but judging from what he said, the Taiwanese will to fight isn't all that strong and that they fully expect us to bail them out.
CDR Sal, as you note these are training and logistical sustainment exercises for the PLA which may or may not be sustainable for them, but are certainly taxing the ability of the Taiwanese to respond to in a meaningful way. OBTW it's not just the Taiwanese who are being made "numb" with the view that the level of activity is "normal". It's the region, the U.S., and the world. The "ho hum, another day, another escalation of ADIZ incursions, ship "close encounters with damage", another second island chain declaration" and so on allow for the ratcheting up of activity levels as "normal" which can cause intel to miss genuinely threatening activity. The Japanese see themselves as seriously under threat, and are taking significant actions to defend themselves. Given their traditional "self defense" approach since WW II, hard to not see their military buildup as a declining confidence in our commitment to the region.
NONE, given that, from CSIS, “…the United States moved to recognize the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and de-recognize the Republic of China (ROC) in 1979, the United States stated that the government of the People’s Republic of China was “the sole legal Government of China.””
We have zero credibility even providing Taiwan arms to “defend” themselves from their own government. Much less to go to war on this issue. Our government policy on Taiwan is insane.
I seriously doubt if .5 percent increase or drop would stop a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Yes, Taiwan would respond valiantly and inflict severe damages to the Chinese attempt. Our country inflicted very severe damages to the North Vietnamese and where are we at today? The Chinese is looking at the "big picture." Our country is involved in the Middle East, Ukraine and an increasing awareness of the challenges in the Pacific Region. Is the amount we spend on defense adequate? Not by a long shot. Is there any part of the world that we are not actively engaged in? So, what's the solution? Perhaps, a willingness to use the "football" that is very near the President all the time.
I think that this is following the plan that the PRC has laid out. The PRC military needs more practice and this is giving it to them. Costs money, yes but greatly improves their military. They have said 2027, for the next 2 years I would be sending everyone to the NTC or in the case of the Chinese, the straights for practice.
Taiwan - They are half serious about the defense of their country. They figure they have to hold out for 3 weeks and then Washington comes to the rescue. Why spend 5% to win when we can spend 2% to achieve the goal. They don't realize that we may not show but they are counting on holding the chip fabs hostage. But I will say that if they invest that 2% wisely it can work like 10% but they would have to make revolutionary changes and I am not seeing that.
Best hope for the situation is that PRC realizes that Taiwan can wait and in 2027 Siberia will be ripe for the taking. Russia will be bled dry and all that stands between the border and Vladivostok is a battalion of T-34 tanks. Nukes protecting Russia, PRC has them also so that is out. 0 help from the west. PRC playing the politics well. There will be a Y in the road in the next year or two and straight or turn will be what sets up things.
Why do you think we can win a “away game” in China’s back yard? We couldn’t even vanquish Vietnam. And Russia is not getting bled dry, it’s the exact opposite; the death rate in Ukraine is 3 time the birthrate in Ukraine and they are potentially facing one of the worst demographic collapse in history.
Better hurry up with those US-based computer chip plants. The PRC will keep throwing its ponderous weight toward Taiwanese shores until the gig is finally up and Taiwan is swallowed. Also, keep an eye on what's happening with Intel (the chip company, not the spying) right now. The company is strained by its foundry investments and may be in play or broken apart, similar to GE.
The chart is representative of an intent or Signal to Noise ratio. The signal is breaking through the back ground noise and demonstrates the PRC intent. Like Maps. analytical charts with facts, don’t lie.
"Since late 2020, People’s Liberation Army (PLA) aircraft have flown sorties into Taiwan’s self-declared Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) on a near daily basis. 2022 was a milestone in ADIZ violations with 1,737 PLA aircraft tracked, more than 2019, 2020, and 2021 combined. "
This looks like increase - observe response - respond accordingly. Clearly our diplomatic corps has not been making strong enough statements.
Excellent point on the (relative to the threat) lame funding on the party of the Taiwanese for their own defense. As the Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Asian and Pacific Affairs (OSD/DOD) for five years, 2002-2207, this was a constant source of deep frustration, at least to me and my team. On two levels- amount/percentage of GDP allocated to their own defense (sad) and very poor choices in how they spent what funds were allocated- billions for a a new submarine fleet!, Abrams main battle tanks that cannot traverse 90% of the bridges in the country, etc. But such weapons were apparently highly "symbolic", at least for the Taiwan political leadership. There was also a proclivity to purchase minimum levels of ordnance inventory (high value types) that would allow them to sustain the fight beyond a few days (hours?) and to contract for systems that would not reach them for many years. no sense of real "urgency". I think the current US military leadership, namely INDOPACOM at all levels, is cracking the whip, and we are being to see some reality- how about a mandatory national service requirement that lasts longer than six months of playing gin rummy in the barracks and/or an "active reserve" component that is credible as a fighting force? My opening line in late 2002 was "You Taiwanese cannot expect the United States to want to defend Taiwan more than you do." I hope over the last few months the mentality has evolved as the Chinese step up the provocations, Tik-Tock.
Continual probes require a response. When the Taiwanese scramble a response they burn a cycle on the aircraft, landing gear, power plant, etc. They accelerate their A/B/C/D checks. The combination of accelerated cycles / hours consumes significantly more maintenance labor / material than otherwise. Ultimately fewer airframes are available as more are in maintenance status. The increased ops tempo creates a sense of nonchalance on the part of the operators - their senses dulled after repetition. At the same time it provides increased training opportunities for the PRC forces as they cycle units from throughout the country through the attack patterns. It also provides realistic baselines for maintenance requirements to the PRC forces as they evaluate various scenarios.
Why are we sticking our nose into China vs Taiwan when THE U.S. GOVERNMENT STATED THE PRC IS THE LEGITIMATE GOVERNMENT? From CSIS “…the United States moved to recognize the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and de-recognize the Republic of China (ROC) in 1979, the United States stated that the government of the People’s Republic of China was “the sole legal Government of China.””
Because, in spite of the political idiocy of not recognizing something that clearly "is"...
1)Taiwan is a sovereign nation, and has been for most of a century.
2) West Taiwan is the most murderous regime in modern history.
3) West Taiwan has no right to Taiwan, especially by force.
4) The encroachment of West Taiwan all over the SCS threatens other friends and Allys.
5) History tells us that aggressors like West Taiwan eventually always have to be stopped by force. So do we support Taiwan, or wait til it's part of Japan, or the Phillipines, or some other nation that's being attacked? In spite of the absurd "recognition" issue, we've stated a commitment to back Taiwan for decades.
What you just said about Taiwan being a sovereign nation is 180 degrees off of our documented policy, and we already said that the only legal government is the PRC, and the ROC is not legal. It’s insanity.
Sure PRC is a bully, but why do WE have to try to protect Taiwan? We will lose multiple aircraft carriers and our escort ships can’t even reload air defense missiles at sea. China will win when we run out of defensive munitions and disengage. Taiwan will be badly mauled. We can’t even keep the raggedy Houthis from stopping shipping with our nuclear aircraft carrier and allies, and you think you can our Navy will survive against China in their “back yard”?
We have treaties with Japan and Philippines, so we have to help them. They are also more distant from China than Taiwan.
For some reason I perceive the average Taiwanese attitude towards the military mirrors that of the average German. They are about to end up like the French in 1940.
A deeply involved/experienced friend (reference the German side) commented "The Germans are what we made them, allowed them to be. So, short of actual Russian invasion of Germany, good luck changing that mindset." By extension, the Taiwanese are what we made them- near totally dependent on the US horse soldiers arriving to save the day and are content to remain so. To a certain extent, this has also been the case with Japan, but here the North Koreans, the Chinese and the Russians are doing us all great service!
At some point decisions need be made in regard to what the United States and its military and industrial base can do and what it can not do. The notion that we have a military that can fight TWO protracted and sustained major combatant conflicts simultaneously is clearly not the case today. Our Navy is stretched about as thinly as possible and remain modestly afloat. Look at the major transfer of force from the Indo Pacific theater to the Mediterranean and Red Sea as example. The Marine Corps is in a fight for its very existence thanks to a major self inflicted wound known as Force Design 2030 and now just Force Design because no one in the puzzle palace knows what it means or how to implement the Japanese Island chain defense theory of 1939, which as we all know from history, didn't work out so well for the Japanese in the fullness of time. The US Army is at the lowest table of organization levels since WWI, and apparently only the Air Force and Space Force know what the Hell they do, which is fly airplanes, etc. Well, at least they seem to be consistent. We have a recruiting crisis, seems no one wants to sign up for critical race training and carry a rainbow colored unit guidon. One might throw in that the working poor, lower middle class and middle class youngsters of military age are either not physically or mentally qualified and or don't want to fight in a far off war of USA choice, so some AWFUL mommy can protect her kids from the horrors of the outside world, let alone pick up a weapon and stand opposed. Go figure.
We fast forward to the CCP/PRC and their appetite for Taiwan, other than a distraction from major problems on the mainland and our and their "One China" policy, what is in it for them? Do we know? The Island of Taiwan has a population of about 24 million. Assume 5-10% are all in with Beijing, that leaves the rest, and is the PRC prepared to lose 40% of its forces to a small land war on an island? Apparently this is about micro chips and dominance in the region. Okay, now you own the real estate and the micro chips and tripped into a global trade war. A communist is someone who has nothing and wants to share it. Now they have something share and it is valueless if they can't sell it. Welcome to capitalism.
If the last 20 years are any example of American state craft "Hey (Pick a country) we're in this fight to the last one of your men, women and children, you can trust us were not like the others!" Not to mention our own sacred blood and treasure, men and woman on the pointy end of the spear, who do the fighting and dying. We might want to reconsider which fights we want to get into. Has anyone heard of the Monroe Doctrine lately? Perhaps we could start there. On Wall Street savvy investment firms give nickels and dimes to people with what may be a promising idea. If the nickels and dimes make a decent return, then they give quarters and maybe dollars. It might be reasonable to ask where and what our nearly trillion dollar defense budget is getting us. Do not read this as isolationist, give peace a chance caterwauling, there is nothing in the old days more potent and meaningful than a Amphibious Ready Group coupled with a Marine Expeditionary Unit steaming over the horizon. But it would seem important that we have some outcome planned for confrontation with China that appears unstoppable. Maybe we ought to think about some very low interest rate loans to the remaining American steel companies so that they can buy US Steel rather than Nippon Steel plunder buying a once great company. we might need the steel. Iron sharpens iron. As Bismarck opined more than a century ago, Germany has no allies and has no enemies, only Germany's self interests. It seem prudent to ask what is in the United States self interest BEFORE we get into an armed conflict with. "peer" foe in which neither side wins.
I went to the Korean Air Force staff college as an exchange student and there was a Taiwanese Air Force officer in the class. Great guy but judging from what he said, the Taiwanese will to fight isn't all that strong and that they fully expect us to bail them out.
That was my impression when I was on the island in 1973, and it seems to have continued since then.
Their % of GDP defense budget attests to that.
CDR Sal, as you note these are training and logistical sustainment exercises for the PLA which may or may not be sustainable for them, but are certainly taxing the ability of the Taiwanese to respond to in a meaningful way. OBTW it's not just the Taiwanese who are being made "numb" with the view that the level of activity is "normal". It's the region, the U.S., and the world. The "ho hum, another day, another escalation of ADIZ incursions, ship "close encounters with damage", another second island chain declaration" and so on allow for the ratcheting up of activity levels as "normal" which can cause intel to miss genuinely threatening activity. The Japanese see themselves as seriously under threat, and are taking significant actions to defend themselves. Given their traditional "self defense" approach since WW II, hard to not see their military buildup as a declining confidence in our commitment to the region.
How much money are will to spend and how many casualties are we willing to take to defend Taiwan and why?
NONE, given that, from CSIS, “…the United States moved to recognize the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and de-recognize the Republic of China (ROC) in 1979, the United States stated that the government of the People’s Republic of China was “the sole legal Government of China.””
We have zero credibility even providing Taiwan arms to “defend” themselves from their own government. Much less to go to war on this issue. Our government policy on Taiwan is insane.
Right on the mark, CDR Sal. FYI…Great article on Lai’s First 100 Days on War on the Rocks.
I seriously doubt if .5 percent increase or drop would stop a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Yes, Taiwan would respond valiantly and inflict severe damages to the Chinese attempt. Our country inflicted very severe damages to the North Vietnamese and where are we at today? The Chinese is looking at the "big picture." Our country is involved in the Middle East, Ukraine and an increasing awareness of the challenges in the Pacific Region. Is the amount we spend on defense adequate? Not by a long shot. Is there any part of the world that we are not actively engaged in? So, what's the solution? Perhaps, a willingness to use the "football" that is very near the President all the time.
I think that this is following the plan that the PRC has laid out. The PRC military needs more practice and this is giving it to them. Costs money, yes but greatly improves their military. They have said 2027, for the next 2 years I would be sending everyone to the NTC or in the case of the Chinese, the straights for practice.
Taiwan - They are half serious about the defense of their country. They figure they have to hold out for 3 weeks and then Washington comes to the rescue. Why spend 5% to win when we can spend 2% to achieve the goal. They don't realize that we may not show but they are counting on holding the chip fabs hostage. But I will say that if they invest that 2% wisely it can work like 10% but they would have to make revolutionary changes and I am not seeing that.
Best hope for the situation is that PRC realizes that Taiwan can wait and in 2027 Siberia will be ripe for the taking. Russia will be bled dry and all that stands between the border and Vladivostok is a battalion of T-34 tanks. Nukes protecting Russia, PRC has them also so that is out. 0 help from the west. PRC playing the politics well. There will be a Y in the road in the next year or two and straight or turn will be what sets up things.
Why do you think we can win a “away game” in China’s back yard? We couldn’t even vanquish Vietnam. And Russia is not getting bled dry, it’s the exact opposite; the death rate in Ukraine is 3 time the birthrate in Ukraine and they are potentially facing one of the worst demographic collapse in history.
Better hurry up with those US-based computer chip plants. The PRC will keep throwing its ponderous weight toward Taiwanese shores until the gig is finally up and Taiwan is swallowed. Also, keep an eye on what's happening with Intel (the chip company, not the spying) right now. The company is strained by its foundry investments and may be in play or broken apart, similar to GE.
SUPERB! As usual.
The chart is representative of an intent or Signal to Noise ratio. The signal is breaking through the back ground noise and demonstrates the PRC intent. Like Maps. analytical charts with facts, don’t lie.
The graph shows two lines. Ms. Hille could have strengthened her case even further had she used the last five years worth of numbers.
2023 numbers were essentially unchanged from 2022 (1737) which were dramatically up from 2021 (972).
https://chinapower.csis.org/analysis/2022-adiz-violations-china-dials-up-pressure-on-taiwan/
2022 was a banner year compared to the previous three.
https://www.cfr.org/blog/chinas-recent-adiz-violations-have-changed-status-quo-taiwan-strait
"Since late 2020, People’s Liberation Army (PLA) aircraft have flown sorties into Taiwan’s self-declared Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) on a near daily basis. 2022 was a milestone in ADIZ violations with 1,737 PLA aircraft tracked, more than 2019, 2020, and 2021 combined. "
This looks like increase - observe response - respond accordingly. Clearly our diplomatic corps has not been making strong enough statements.
Excellent point on the (relative to the threat) lame funding on the party of the Taiwanese for their own defense. As the Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Asian and Pacific Affairs (OSD/DOD) for five years, 2002-2207, this was a constant source of deep frustration, at least to me and my team. On two levels- amount/percentage of GDP allocated to their own defense (sad) and very poor choices in how they spent what funds were allocated- billions for a a new submarine fleet!, Abrams main battle tanks that cannot traverse 90% of the bridges in the country, etc. But such weapons were apparently highly "symbolic", at least for the Taiwan political leadership. There was also a proclivity to purchase minimum levels of ordnance inventory (high value types) that would allow them to sustain the fight beyond a few days (hours?) and to contract for systems that would not reach them for many years. no sense of real "urgency". I think the current US military leadership, namely INDOPACOM at all levels, is cracking the whip, and we are being to see some reality- how about a mandatory national service requirement that lasts longer than six months of playing gin rummy in the barracks and/or an "active reserve" component that is credible as a fighting force? My opening line in late 2002 was "You Taiwanese cannot expect the United States to want to defend Taiwan more than you do." I hope over the last few months the mentality has evolved as the Chinese step up the provocations, Tik-Tock.
You hit the nail on the head with the Taiwanese desire to defend their own house needing to be greater than our own.
Maybe a few bombs dropped on their cities will wake them up.
Continual probes require a response. When the Taiwanese scramble a response they burn a cycle on the aircraft, landing gear, power plant, etc. They accelerate their A/B/C/D checks. The combination of accelerated cycles / hours consumes significantly more maintenance labor / material than otherwise. Ultimately fewer airframes are available as more are in maintenance status. The increased ops tempo creates a sense of nonchalance on the part of the operators - their senses dulled after repetition. At the same time it provides increased training opportunities for the PRC forces as they cycle units from throughout the country through the attack patterns. It also provides realistic baselines for maintenance requirements to the PRC forces as they evaluate various scenarios.
Why are we sticking our nose into China vs Taiwan when THE U.S. GOVERNMENT STATED THE PRC IS THE LEGITIMATE GOVERNMENT? From CSIS “…the United States moved to recognize the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and de-recognize the Republic of China (ROC) in 1979, the United States stated that the government of the People’s Republic of China was “the sole legal Government of China.””
Our foreign policy is Kafkaesque!
Because, in spite of the political idiocy of not recognizing something that clearly "is"...
1)Taiwan is a sovereign nation, and has been for most of a century.
2) West Taiwan is the most murderous regime in modern history.
3) West Taiwan has no right to Taiwan, especially by force.
4) The encroachment of West Taiwan all over the SCS threatens other friends and Allys.
5) History tells us that aggressors like West Taiwan eventually always have to be stopped by force. So do we support Taiwan, or wait til it's part of Japan, or the Phillipines, or some other nation that's being attacked? In spite of the absurd "recognition" issue, we've stated a commitment to back Taiwan for decades.
What you just said about Taiwan being a sovereign nation is 180 degrees off of our documented policy, and we already said that the only legal government is the PRC, and the ROC is not legal. It’s insanity.
Sure PRC is a bully, but why do WE have to try to protect Taiwan? We will lose multiple aircraft carriers and our escort ships can’t even reload air defense missiles at sea. China will win when we run out of defensive munitions and disengage. Taiwan will be badly mauled. We can’t even keep the raggedy Houthis from stopping shipping with our nuclear aircraft carrier and allies, and you think you can our Navy will survive against China in their “back yard”?
We have treaties with Japan and Philippines, so we have to help them. They are also more distant from China than Taiwan.
"Our foreign policy is Kafkaesque!" So you are implying that a cockroach could manage our foreign policy better? Huh. Maybe you are right, Aaron.
For some reason I perceive the average Taiwanese attitude towards the military mirrors that of the average German. They are about to end up like the French in 1940.
A deeply involved/experienced friend (reference the German side) commented "The Germans are what we made them, allowed them to be. So, short of actual Russian invasion of Germany, good luck changing that mindset." By extension, the Taiwanese are what we made them- near totally dependent on the US horse soldiers arriving to save the day and are content to remain so. To a certain extent, this has also been the case with Japan, but here the North Koreans, the Chinese and the Russians are doing us all great service!
At some point decisions need be made in regard to what the United States and its military and industrial base can do and what it can not do. The notion that we have a military that can fight TWO protracted and sustained major combatant conflicts simultaneously is clearly not the case today. Our Navy is stretched about as thinly as possible and remain modestly afloat. Look at the major transfer of force from the Indo Pacific theater to the Mediterranean and Red Sea as example. The Marine Corps is in a fight for its very existence thanks to a major self inflicted wound known as Force Design 2030 and now just Force Design because no one in the puzzle palace knows what it means or how to implement the Japanese Island chain defense theory of 1939, which as we all know from history, didn't work out so well for the Japanese in the fullness of time. The US Army is at the lowest table of organization levels since WWI, and apparently only the Air Force and Space Force know what the Hell they do, which is fly airplanes, etc. Well, at least they seem to be consistent. We have a recruiting crisis, seems no one wants to sign up for critical race training and carry a rainbow colored unit guidon. One might throw in that the working poor, lower middle class and middle class youngsters of military age are either not physically or mentally qualified and or don't want to fight in a far off war of USA choice, so some AWFUL mommy can protect her kids from the horrors of the outside world, let alone pick up a weapon and stand opposed. Go figure.
We fast forward to the CCP/PRC and their appetite for Taiwan, other than a distraction from major problems on the mainland and our and their "One China" policy, what is in it for them? Do we know? The Island of Taiwan has a population of about 24 million. Assume 5-10% are all in with Beijing, that leaves the rest, and is the PRC prepared to lose 40% of its forces to a small land war on an island? Apparently this is about micro chips and dominance in the region. Okay, now you own the real estate and the micro chips and tripped into a global trade war. A communist is someone who has nothing and wants to share it. Now they have something share and it is valueless if they can't sell it. Welcome to capitalism.
If the last 20 years are any example of American state craft "Hey (Pick a country) we're in this fight to the last one of your men, women and children, you can trust us were not like the others!" Not to mention our own sacred blood and treasure, men and woman on the pointy end of the spear, who do the fighting and dying. We might want to reconsider which fights we want to get into. Has anyone heard of the Monroe Doctrine lately? Perhaps we could start there. On Wall Street savvy investment firms give nickels and dimes to people with what may be a promising idea. If the nickels and dimes make a decent return, then they give quarters and maybe dollars. It might be reasonable to ask where and what our nearly trillion dollar defense budget is getting us. Do not read this as isolationist, give peace a chance caterwauling, there is nothing in the old days more potent and meaningful than a Amphibious Ready Group coupled with a Marine Expeditionary Unit steaming over the horizon. But it would seem important that we have some outcome planned for confrontation with China that appears unstoppable. Maybe we ought to think about some very low interest rate loans to the remaining American steel companies so that they can buy US Steel rather than Nippon Steel plunder buying a once great company. we might need the steel. Iron sharpens iron. As Bismarck opined more than a century ago, Germany has no allies and has no enemies, only Germany's self interests. It seem prudent to ask what is in the United States self interest BEFORE we get into an armed conflict with. "peer" foe in which neither side wins.
Xi Jinping has been very clear as to his intentions.
As clear as Hitler was in Mein Kampf.
The alarms can be no louder for Taiwan than they are right now. Perhaps they should quit hitting the snooze button…