74 Comments
Comment deleted
Expand full comment

Until your scenarios are a real threat, nothing will change. Who really believes that the Russian state that can't reach the Dneiper could reach the Oder?

What you reference as "socio-political inertia" is a product of kriegsschuld and decades of mea culpa and ambivalence about anything German. Bundeswehr recruiting ads get vandalized. The Germans walked like zombies into shutting their nuke plants down because that's what they protested for back in the 70s when their hair was tinted with henna. They're not going to give up their nice life to mobilize.

Expand full comment

"No, the American nukes that are officially called “NATO nukes.” had a sad chuckle as I remember it was, and still is, the same for sea mines.

Expand full comment

"Ach, less NATO expenses if we send fewer officers to Brussels".

Expand full comment

The Germans may wake up when it dawns on them that the Poles have the military capability to be a threat. That day is only a few years off. And the ancient hatreds in Eastern Europe may be sleeping but I doubt they are dead.

I say may wake up.

Expand full comment

"the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) are firing only 20 percent of the rounds they potentially could because of insufficient stock."

And if we gave them 5 times as much? They'd complain that our tubes burned out too fast ad ask for those.

The UK's may be modeling the Neo-AFU on the NATO model, but their Arty doctrine seems a bit Czarist. Not all possible targets need a BNx4

As fo the German Defense budget, too much goes to hidden social and green programs. Their spare parts supply would bring tears. The few planes, tanks and ships they have don't fly, run or sail.

Poland has 8 times the number of working tanks 1000 versus 250/2

Expand full comment

I remain fine with a weak German Army.

Perhaps they could hire some Dutch and Danish soldiers and sailors.

Expand full comment

Germans learned from history: the last two times they rearmed, they ended up getting crushed in a war.

The days of NATO being an alliance are gone. NATO is one of the institutions used by the US to keep its European vassals in line.

Expand full comment

A few years ago we had a president who asked the NATO countries to spend more on defense. He was ridiculed. He was considered a threat to the alliance. One retired SEAL admiral demanded that he be removed by any means necessary. What ever happened to that former president?

Expand full comment

Anyone ever consider negotiating? Where is Dr. Kissinger when you need him?

Expand full comment

In German war planning, it's not 30 days to the end of the war. It's 30 days until the Americans come save them.

Expand full comment

It's exactly like when I play Hearts of Iron 4 and I have 1 day of oil and all my panzer and motorized divisions are losing and I am wondering why. Some things never change.

Expand full comment

How many tubes has Germany that are actually able to fire?

Expand full comment

Trump was right. Drop Germany. Move most everything to Poland, other east European countries Finland, Sweden, Norway, etc. Keep airbases airbases in England and Air\Naval bass in Italy, Greece and Spain. Also drop Turkey. Do the European thing TO the Europeans. Talk the talk but no money, no action, no walk the walk. When the Germans complain listen politely, nod your head, then ignore them. Evaluate each country on what they do, not what they say or promise to do.

Expand full comment

Maybe just because they think/understand Putin/Russia just wants Ukraine and no more.

You seem to have convinced yourselves that Putin wishes to keep expanding when he’s said nothing of the sort.

Expand full comment

Ah yes. While the naves and fools chased after their shiny high tech toys the Queen of battle laughed and reined supreme.

Expand full comment