I may take Thursday off. Technically, I still have 34 days leave on the books. I ran off the ship the day we got back from deployment in 1991. That was a Friday...was officially retired that Monday. Didn't take terminal leave because I knew the SOB's would call me in from 401 miles away to proofread CASREP's and write SORTS messages. Maybe, while I was there...do a fire drill. They'd called me in on day 2 of my 30 days transfer leave 18 months before that to be the GLO for an NGFS cert. 12 hours to bone up for it. Last time I had done NGFS was on a CLG in Vietnam as an RD1 using a Comanche Board and the 1 Able computer 20 years before. Thursday has me really scared now. Nah, I am too frail a vessel to endure tomorrow. Might go kayaking on either the Blackwater River or Perdido River. Will need to check the forecast first to see which has the fewest alligators.
Martac is a new term to me. Had to google it to see what it means. What are your thoughts on us having the requisite quantum computing and AI technology for the next-generation sea, sub-sea, above-sea, side-sea landward littoral (boots /tracks/skids-on-the-ground) apparatuses in time for the third decade of the 21st century? I am skeptical, you see. NavSea up to overseeing it? Or do you see contracting it out? Your thoughts, please.
---------------------------------
Sorry. Saw Martac, but didn't pay much attention to the preface. Thought it at first a replacement camo pattern for the hideous one they recently switched to. So, never mind.
I was talking about the USV manufacturer, but I'm more skeptical on the software being as ready for prime time since we started getting to play with them in the mainstream. https://martacsystems.com/
Window of vulnerability? Well, early spring and late fall annually, as that is the best weather window (largely avoids typhoons). Xi 's age comes into play here...he's not young, and the "2027-32" window IMO represents the later end of said window as he considers his legacy. Not predicting, but will not be at all surprised if something happens in the region sooner rather than later. Our government and military appear incapable of dealing with day to day operations, much less adding a third (and much larger) conflict in the Pacific that WILL impact the homeland. Sure hope our basket of space and assorted national asset wonder weapons can offset being the visiting team in a very unfriendly home team battlefield environment. That's assuming if something happens we choose to resist.
Agree that the war breaks out sooner ... if Biden wins, I think Chicomms will keep their powder dry until he resigns and turns over to Harris, which I believe is highly probable. That would, in my opinion, be the moment of extreme political vulnerability for the US. Combine that with a feckless national security team, and you could see a Harris admin negotiating war termination favorable to the Chinese.
Hellscape is nothing more than an admission that we are not ready for a " another gut bustin', mother lovin', navy war," to quote CDR Eddington in "In Harm's Way."
The dark of the moon this year falls around the 1st in October and November. Also we are unlikely to be less unified or prepared than right now. #justsayin
Hey, maybe “drone motherships” means “airplanes somebody else owns”, like C-130s and C-5s and C-17s, which certainly would not be busy doing other actual things they are tasked and trained to do, so they could fly along the “far outside the first island chain” arc pushing palletized drones out the back.
IMHO and ever so slightly informed opinion that's the best option unless they start fitting out OSVs as miniarsenal ships. I hasten to add that a conversion of a single ship would take 6 mos minimum and probably more like 9 especially for early conversions.
Methinks the good Admiral needs to visit Odesa and spend some honest time discussing basic infrastructure requirements, from fixed friendly locations to leverage lessons learned in the Black Sea……then ponder how you conduct ops from other than fixed or friendly locations. But give him credit…he didn’t state that diversity is his first priority.
It's perfectly possible that China is willing to accept a trade where they get Taiwan and humiliate the US in exchange for making LEO unusable for a few decades. And if they do that they won't hesitate to punch out Viasat etc in Geo.
My assumption is that the gps and comms constellation are ooc within 7 days of hostilities commencing with China delaying only as a negotiating strategy.
It would be line of bearing, when performing a carrier rendezvous of a flight after launch. First plane flies a circle over the boat, say 30 degree angle of bank; next plane comes up and uses his airspeed, power setting, and angle of bank to slide in place on leader's wing. Ideally, circling continues until all planes are in the formation and off they go.
Angle of bank controls positional relationship of the two planes, fore and aft, and if the closing plane gets too far behind the leader he might burn too much fuel to complete the mission in catching up. This is being "sucked on the bearing."
CDR Sal, no one in DC cares about anything except the upcoming election.
If Biden is reelected then expect more of the same DEI lunacy except on steroids. If Trump is reelected then expect the deep state to do to him what they did to him before.
The country, the government and the military are broken. This ship is on its way to Niagara all engines ahead full.
"Like the US dollar being the world’s reserve currency?"
Stop using it as a weapon before it is too late.
G7 got cute using Russian assets to fund Ukraine. Money that the common Ukrainians will see little of: more likely it will be used to reimburse BlackRock and all the other companies that made investments in Ukraine.
Not sure that Ukraine is worth risking the US dollar as the world's reserve currency.
Not sure how many billions we wasted on Firescout unmanned helo drone. I do know we had hangars full of othem BEFORE its OPEVAL. It did horribly on the first half of its OPEVAL so what did the Navy do? Declared it operational without ever dropping a weapon from it or correcting those OPEVAL failures.
After a couple of spectacular crashes, it was removed from active service and now one squadron "sort of" flies it while all those hangars full sit as wasted money.
Heads should have rolled. Did they? No, no they did not.
And that my friends is just a symptom of how far the rot has spread. Just like the CO and CMC of HSC 28 being fired, but the Navy not publishing that "small" fact. Seems as if beating up a couple of your JO's and a CMC unwilling to step in aren't worthy of talking to the force about. (More rot).
You should try shedding some light on that via other,, marginally more official means. These things test ones resolve in other fields too, stay at it. We don’t know if or when victory will happen, but we fight anyway.
My experience is that the rot starts with grandiose plans involving multiple technical risks with single-point failures, and outright lies about cost and schedule. Spreading the money across dozens of congressional districts doesn’t hurt either. Why? Because proposing something that’s just a touch forward of where we are today doesn’t turn O-6s into O-7s. And every member of Congress translates “represents my district well” as “brings in jobs”.
My memory is that DDG-1000 had components built in 42 states. Lots of Congressional support until that whole "we can't afford the ammunition" problem popped up.
Absolutely, the biggest projects get funded by sourcing from as many of the 435 congressional districts as possible. Even worse, we have "set asides" for congressional districts that were "traditionally underrepresented."
Do the "congressional math." Just one vendor in a congressional district can provide enough jobs to significantly influence a Representative.
Let me first say, I agree with you Sal! But CAN we push the envelope to make these things happen in this timeline? That depends on buy in from the commercial sector and academia - who generally don't want to participate in their own defense. But can it be done?
C2 and communications bandwidth requirements of this compared to existing assets, predicted assets by 2030 - I think Elon Musk could provide some assistance here with Starlink and other constellations in LEO or stratospheric blimps in theater to have line of site microburst communications with laser/microwave backups for target updates and commands. But there would have to be an autonomous brain on board each craft with sensors to execute programmed attack patterns once initiated. Think along the lines of activating mobile acoustic sea mines deployed from aircraft.
Adjust the first point above in a hostile EW environment - Yes, there is the rub - for everyone, them and us. You have to have multiple communication bands and have backup inertial navigation...all raising the price on what you can afford to build and deploy and expanding timelines. But a version of Link 16 with:
- Frequency hopping: Link 16 uses a fast-frequency-hopping waveform.
- Spread spectrum: Link 16 uses direct sequence spread spectrum (DSSS) and frequency-hopping spread spectrum (FHSS) for secure communication.
- Time division multiple access (TDMA): TDMA provides multiple communication paths simultaneously through different nets.
Adjust further by the impact of access denial to LEO satellite VOX & data - which is why you need a satellite constellation a la Starlink (tough to interdict all of it or attrit all of it), the aforementioned blimps, and F-35s and other ISR assets in theater providing real time data updates through Link 16.
Show me the manufacturing of said units, in scale, absent and components, etc sourced from the PRC - We don't have it now (nor do we have it to make more missiles as quickly as we need by 2027 to 2030) and this is where the commercial sector and academia comes into play. We have/can build enough 3-D printers and CNC machines to make it happen...but we have to train people on those machines, have production and design engineers, facilities, etc. All things we could do in the commercial sector with $$ and the will to do it and which could also be provided in the academic space if they are onboard (and no Chinese PhD or MS students are on the teams). But it would take a monumental effort such as we entered after Pearl Harbor. But it could be done - we have more people in the US now than we did then, we have the technology, we could certainly put in the same effort and build out what we need for the physical equipment - computer hardware and software, etc. is specialized, though we have a lot of wizzes at that stuff out there, too.
I'd also add (a day later) that we can build hulls for pretty good size USVs at active small shipyards in secondary ports that produce shipping vessels and pleasure craft. You make the hulls and mount the engines et al, then ship it off to add the electronics and software at HII or others. There is no reason this couldn't be mobilized to effect just as we mobilized such resources in WWII.
But it takes leadership. That is all it ever took. We've been on vacation and nobody has been steering the ship. We're not on the rocks yet, but we need to have somebody with a plan and a GO order.
and....meh....nah. Various entities have been pursuing "high altitude" lighter-than-air blimps for a loooooooong time now. The tech just isn't there, really. and so unnecessary, IMHO' when, for far less money, and far, far more quickly, we can field dozens of smaller, stealthy airships that; while operating from sea level to, oh, 5,000'; can do the same ISR work, even though they don't individually have that larger overhead view.
Au contraire mon frère! "The U.S. Army’s new Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) short-range ballistic missile has, for the first time, been successfully employed against a moving target at sea. Taking place during the Valiant Shield 24 Sink Exercise (SINKEX), the engagement also involved high-altitude balloons, equipped with “electromagnetic spectrum sensors and radio networking equipment,” and an ultra-long-endurance aerial drone, which were part of the kill chain. The scenario is very much indicative of the kind of distributed sensor/shooter network the Army has been working on for years now and which is seen as particularly relevant in the Pacific theater." https://www.twz.com/land/armys-new-prsm-ballistic-missile-hits-moving-ship-for-the-first-time-in-pacific-test
Well, wait...it wasn't about "balloons". That is just the platform to get the technology in the air - could be LTA, balloons, blimps, whatever. I agree on LTAs - a lot of lift capacity, a lot of mobility, could carry a lot of power generation for directed energy weapons, carry missiles, AESA radar or SPY 3/6 and STILL carry all the sensors and communications equipment and crew for running unmanned vehicles. Probably outside of the envelope for detection, strikes, or interdiction by the enemy, too.
So we have the technology to do it at various altitudes, the communications equipment and software - we just need the platforms.
"How long will we allow military professionals to benchmark marketing over sound military planning?"
Unfortunately, at least until we lose the first major battle. Maybe longer. Then it's a slog to build up to true battle readiness.
It's depressing, but solving the logistics, acquisition, procurement, RDT&E, funding, and Congessional issues that have been talked about for 20 years won't matter until we replace our current bureaucratic GOFOs with warfighting (a word I hate) GOFOs. And that will take war at this point. Look at the battlefield replacement rate at the start of WW2.
Recruiting and retention is in the doldrums. Are we even getting and keeping the best & brightest anymore? Are those kinds of folks even promotable now? I do not know. Whatever passes for the best & brightest during the next dozen or so promotion cycles is frightening.
Dale, let's face it, the best and the brightest were not promotable when you and I both left active duty in 1991. I know for a fact that promotion boards were already being told who to promote based on immutable birth characteristics at that time. It has metastasized since then.
It did. I served with an EW superstar twice. When he was an EW2 and I had transferred to CincPacFlt I had him drafted as a technical advisor for Project Garlic Clove. He saw the project to a successful conclusion after I transferred. Won an award for it. Later when I was a CWO we served together on an FFG. He qualified as a JOOD as an EW1 and was one of our best bridge watchstanders. He promoted to EWCS in 11 years. First time up for E-9 (late 80's) he got picked, #5 of 5 picks because of minimal seniority. DC kicked the picks back and was told to pick a minority. There weren't many but they picked the best one and had to bump my old shipmate.
This old lifer says you were smart to get out when you did. The skills you learn in the Navy are yours to keep. (I remember that whenever I soogie the head.) Hopefully, you've had a great life since you got out. As my wife says, "You do the first tour for the adventure, the second tour for the money. After that, you don't fit in anywhere else."
You are right, Harry. That handwriting was chiseled on the wall, noticeable, even back then. I reckon it never affected me much, though. In the EW and 712X and 612X communities, we were very homogenous. To have been a minority would have meant having red hair. I only remember meeting one ginger, a guy I served with twice. When we were both RD2's on a DDG he was the one who ignored the tag out and energized and spun the AN/SPS-10 radar while I was aloft doing some minor maintenance. 20 years later we were stationed together, him an EWC and me a LT, his DIVO. We never talked and he avoided me as if I were Typhoid Mary. I don't recall us ever having those B&W 5x7 torso shots for E-7 and up promotion boards. The times I applied for OCS, CWO(2), LDO(2) I had to submit a photo with the package. Guess I was lucky that a B&W photo can't discern blue eyes or sandy brown hair going to gray well enough to deselect. Back then, despite my heritage, and before skin cancer was a thing, I used to tan really dark. When I first met my wife she thought I was Mexican. Who knows? I would have been in zone for LCDR in 1992 and 1993. My middle name is Clinton. I might have made it despite any handicap. Anyway, I think the Navy always treated me fairly. Those were better times.
Well put. The U. S. Government, civilian and military, (and most corporations as well) is cursed with managers who want to make a big name for themselves by proposing grandiose plans, inflating their benefit, and minimizing the cost. The Peter Principle is on full display everywhere. I worked at (mumble) air traffic control tower with a few transfers in and out from 1982-2019, and in that time the FAA spent 8 million dollars on five different studies to replace the 1959 tower building. They paid to relocate a street so they could build one proposed tower where the street used to be, but no construction has occurred. My former coworkers still work in the asbestos-filled 1959 tower.
Cutting the MQ-4 buy is so stupid I lack the words for it. Yes, the airplane could use a bigger engine, and the ELINT/SIGINT capabilities might have been better put in a dedicated airframe...but it's got a hell of a lot of capability. And the BAMS-D team worked out how to make a high altitude UAV work for naval missions.
I smell something. Not sure if it's the usual anti-UAV prejudice, or the money being siphoned off to some other bogus scheme.
Having said that, I have long been convinced that a frontal charge into the South China Sea is a fool's errand. Follow the good example of Admiral Jellicoe, cut off the approaches to the Straits of Malacca, and wait patiently for the blockade to do its work.
Guesstimates, but China has ~6 nuke subs and somewhere between 65 and 80 conventional subs. I doubt that our bubbleheads are blase about the threat the Chinese subs pose to us.
Yeah, IIRC one nuke +2 in construction are rather apparently quiet, plus 20some AIP SSs. And then another ~8 SSN and 50+ SS that are varying degrees of not very quiet.
I would certainly hope that whoever is supposedly enforcing the blockade from their a DDG has a really top-notch ASW game on. How easily would a DDG detect say a Sturgeon-class running underneath a Chinese VLCC?
No...but this is the same situation that Jellicoe faced in the First World War. He could have tried a close blockade of German ports, and sucked up the losses to torpedo boats and subs. Or he could block the Norway-UK gap in the North Sea, deny the Germans cheap attrition tactics, and force them to fight on his terms or not at all.
I'd feel a hell of a lot better about winning in the Indian Ocean than the South China Sea.
That is a cogent analysis, and an excellent analogy. The smarts on this discussion board are exceeded only by the stupids who are actively squandering our future.
Sure, keep encouraging the Ukes to push the limits of using U.S./NATO arms & personnel in the war against Russia. At some point Russia is going to employ the FAFO principle.
Most of the brass gets plugged into aerospace inc. The likes of northrop grumman lockheed martin boeing to name a few. They don’t care , because the legal status of us citizens equates to that of serfs. Their future generations are on the hook for the bill. That’s why the border is open. They need more us citizens to pay the bill. Drop your Venezuelan right to travel passport documents at the border and the 14th amendment picks you up there under its jurisdiction.
Having actually launched similar equipment my first question is on what kind of platforms are they going to be based and how will they be delivered? Unless you have the right delivery systems you won't be able to put large numbers of anything in the water or air. For the most part i believe that this equipment should be air droppable because surface deployment in a non-permisdive environment is going to cost non-replaceable resources especially people.
Well, you didn't disappoint on Thursday being truly depressing.
Itt’s only Wednesday.
Oh No.
Good rehearsal though.
Really. The CDR could take Thursday off and it would still be a truly depressing day.
I may take Thursday off. Technically, I still have 34 days leave on the books. I ran off the ship the day we got back from deployment in 1991. That was a Friday...was officially retired that Monday. Didn't take terminal leave because I knew the SOB's would call me in from 401 miles away to proofread CASREP's and write SORTS messages. Maybe, while I was there...do a fire drill. They'd called me in on day 2 of my 30 days transfer leave 18 months before that to be the GLO for an NGFS cert. 12 hours to bone up for it. Last time I had done NGFS was on a CLG in Vietnam as an RD1 using a Comanche Board and the 1 Able computer 20 years before. Thursday has me really scared now. Nah, I am too frail a vessel to endure tomorrow. Might go kayaking on either the Blackwater River or Perdido River. Will need to check the forecast first to see which has the fewest alligators.
Don’t get me started on Martac.
Martac is a new term to me. Had to google it to see what it means. What are your thoughts on us having the requisite quantum computing and AI technology for the next-generation sea, sub-sea, above-sea, side-sea landward littoral (boots /tracks/skids-on-the-ground) apparatuses in time for the third decade of the 21st century? I am skeptical, you see. NavSea up to overseeing it? Or do you see contracting it out? Your thoughts, please.
---------------------------------
Sorry. Saw Martac, but didn't pay much attention to the preface. Thought it at first a replacement camo pattern for the hideous one they recently switched to. So, never mind.
A new camo pattern might be more useful in defeating the Houthis than AI and quantum mechanics.
I was talking about the USV manufacturer, but I'm more skeptical on the software being as ready for prime time since we started getting to play with them in the mainstream. https://martacsystems.com/
Window of vulnerability? Well, early spring and late fall annually, as that is the best weather window (largely avoids typhoons). Xi 's age comes into play here...he's not young, and the "2027-32" window IMO represents the later end of said window as he considers his legacy. Not predicting, but will not be at all surprised if something happens in the region sooner rather than later. Our government and military appear incapable of dealing with day to day operations, much less adding a third (and much larger) conflict in the Pacific that WILL impact the homeland. Sure hope our basket of space and assorted national asset wonder weapons can offset being the visiting team in a very unfriendly home team battlefield environment. That's assuming if something happens we choose to resist.
So is 'late fall' like October? Just asking for a friend.
October surprise this year or Spring next year based on U.S. political cycle.
Agree that the war breaks out sooner ... if Biden wins, I think Chicomms will keep their powder dry until he resigns and turns over to Harris, which I believe is highly probable. That would, in my opinion, be the moment of extreme political vulnerability for the US. Combine that with a feckless national security team, and you could see a Harris admin negotiating war termination favorable to the Chinese.
Hellscape is nothing more than an admission that we are not ready for a " another gut bustin', mother lovin', navy war," to quote CDR Eddington in "In Harm's Way."
The dark of the moon this year falls around the 1st in October and November. Also we are unlikely to be less unified or prepared than right now. #justsayin
Speaking of the dark side of the moon - Chinese probes just brought back samples from that area.
Not much in the new about their capability. Not a Sputnik moment.
Once upon a time we landed on the moon.
And when we landed on the moon we did it without Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, Microsoft or Netflix.
You forgor Alibaba and TikTok.
Nothing magical about getting to orbit and returning your astronauts safely either. Not a new boundary pushing capability.
But.... then there is Boeing.
Boeing is making great strides in diversity. You ought to read the stuff they put out on the topic.
It is buying them all kinds of love by the wundergehirns at The Nation - not!
https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/st-louis-pride-boeing-gaza/
“…from drone motherships far outside the first island chain…”
In 2027.
Yeah, how many of these vague “drone motherships” are in the water/air today? Zero? How many have actual budget lines? Zero?
I mean, maybe in 2037. If the budget gets slashed for everything else.
Or are these conceptual cardboard drone motherships that we can buy from that company in Oz, orderable at the last minute?
The “hope” is that maybe the classified side of things has a few good people and a credit card.
Credit card is maxed out. Interest payments are eating up the budget.
Ships and planes take time. Time we don't have. Besides who's going to trust boeing these days?
Hey, maybe “drone motherships” means “airplanes somebody else owns”, like C-130s and C-5s and C-17s, which certainly would not be busy doing other actual things they are tasked and trained to do, so they could fly along the “far outside the first island chain” arc pushing palletized drones out the back.
That’s it, USN spending USAF money. Jointly.
IMHO and ever so slightly informed opinion that's the best option unless they start fitting out OSVs as miniarsenal ships. I hasten to add that a conversion of a single ship would take 6 mos minimum and probably more like 9 especially for early conversions.
Methinks the good Admiral needs to visit Odesa and spend some honest time discussing basic infrastructure requirements, from fixed friendly locations to leverage lessons learned in the Black Sea……then ponder how you conduct ops from other than fixed or friendly locations. But give him credit…he didn’t state that diversity is his first priority.
It's perfectly possible that China is willing to accept a trade where they get Taiwan and humiliate the US in exchange for making LEO unusable for a few decades. And if they do that they won't hesitate to punch out Viasat etc in Geo.
My assumption is that the gps and comms constellation are ooc within 7 days of hostilities commencing with China delaying only as a negotiating strategy.
As we aviators say, we're "sucked on the bearing."
And no, that's not a Tailhook Ass'n thing, it's a flying thing.
Bearing, as in line of bearing? Ball bearing? Walk that in for us, please.
It would be line of bearing, when performing a carrier rendezvous of a flight after launch. First plane flies a circle over the boat, say 30 degree angle of bank; next plane comes up and uses his airspeed, power setting, and angle of bank to slide in place on leader's wing. Ideally, circling continues until all planes are in the formation and off they go.
Angle of bank controls positional relationship of the two planes, fore and aft, and if the closing plane gets too far behind the leader he might burn too much fuel to complete the mission in catching up. This is being "sucked on the bearing."
Aha! So THAT'S what those noisy and dirty airplanes were up to while circling around my plane guard destroyer!
You guys weren't drag racing the Big Gray Boat?
Nah. Getting in front of a carrier is pretty much always a bad idea.
CDR Sal, no one in DC cares about anything except the upcoming election.
If Biden is reelected then expect more of the same DEI lunacy except on steroids. If Trump is reelected then expect the deep state to do to him what they did to him before.
The country, the government and the military are broken. This ship is on its way to Niagara all engines ahead full.
"Like the US dollar being the world’s reserve currency?"
Stop using it as a weapon before it is too late.
G7 got cute using Russian assets to fund Ukraine. Money that the common Ukrainians will see little of: more likely it will be used to reimburse BlackRock and all the other companies that made investments in Ukraine.
Not sure that Ukraine is worth risking the US dollar as the world's reserve currency.
Not sure how many billions we wasted on Firescout unmanned helo drone. I do know we had hangars full of othem BEFORE its OPEVAL. It did horribly on the first half of its OPEVAL so what did the Navy do? Declared it operational without ever dropping a weapon from it or correcting those OPEVAL failures.
After a couple of spectacular crashes, it was removed from active service and now one squadron "sort of" flies it while all those hangars full sit as wasted money.
Heads should have rolled. Did they? No, no they did not.
And that my friends is just a symptom of how far the rot has spread. Just like the CO and CMC of HSC 28 being fired, but the Navy not publishing that "small" fact. Seems as if beating up a couple of your JO's and a CMC unwilling to step in aren't worthy of talking to the force about. (More rot).
You should try shedding some light on that via other,, marginally more official means. These things test ones resolve in other fields too, stay at it. We don’t know if or when victory will happen, but we fight anyway.
Thanks, I'm long retired. I just have very good contacts still in the field who feed me good info. Frustrates me to no end.
My experience is that the rot starts with grandiose plans involving multiple technical risks with single-point failures, and outright lies about cost and schedule. Spreading the money across dozens of congressional districts doesn’t hurt either. Why? Because proposing something that’s just a touch forward of where we are today doesn’t turn O-6s into O-7s. And every member of Congress translates “represents my district well” as “brings in jobs”.
At Defense Resources Management Institute, I learned the 10 words you never want to hear, "You don't understand son, that isn't built in my district."
My memory is that DDG-1000 had components built in 42 states. Lots of Congressional support until that whole "we can't afford the ammunition" problem popped up.
Absolutely, the biggest projects get funded by sourcing from as many of the 435 congressional districts as possible. Even worse, we have "set asides" for congressional districts that were "traditionally underrepresented."
Do the "congressional math." Just one vendor in a congressional district can provide enough jobs to significantly influence a Representative.
Here’s some news on the subject from the Navy Times. “No other details were immediately available.”
Let me first say, I agree with you Sal! But CAN we push the envelope to make these things happen in this timeline? That depends on buy in from the commercial sector and academia - who generally don't want to participate in their own defense. But can it be done?
C2 and communications bandwidth requirements of this compared to existing assets, predicted assets by 2030 - I think Elon Musk could provide some assistance here with Starlink and other constellations in LEO or stratospheric blimps in theater to have line of site microburst communications with laser/microwave backups for target updates and commands. But there would have to be an autonomous brain on board each craft with sensors to execute programmed attack patterns once initiated. Think along the lines of activating mobile acoustic sea mines deployed from aircraft.
Adjust the first point above in a hostile EW environment - Yes, there is the rub - for everyone, them and us. You have to have multiple communication bands and have backup inertial navigation...all raising the price on what you can afford to build and deploy and expanding timelines. But a version of Link 16 with:
- Frequency hopping: Link 16 uses a fast-frequency-hopping waveform.
- Spread spectrum: Link 16 uses direct sequence spread spectrum (DSSS) and frequency-hopping spread spectrum (FHSS) for secure communication.
- Time division multiple access (TDMA): TDMA provides multiple communication paths simultaneously through different nets.
Adjust further by the impact of access denial to LEO satellite VOX & data - which is why you need a satellite constellation a la Starlink (tough to interdict all of it or attrit all of it), the aforementioned blimps, and F-35s and other ISR assets in theater providing real time data updates through Link 16.
Show me the manufacturing of said units, in scale, absent and components, etc sourced from the PRC - We don't have it now (nor do we have it to make more missiles as quickly as we need by 2027 to 2030) and this is where the commercial sector and academia comes into play. We have/can build enough 3-D printers and CNC machines to make it happen...but we have to train people on those machines, have production and design engineers, facilities, etc. All things we could do in the commercial sector with $$ and the will to do it and which could also be provided in the academic space if they are onboard (and no Chinese PhD or MS students are on the teams). But it would take a monumental effort such as we entered after Pearl Harbor. But it could be done - we have more people in the US now than we did then, we have the technology, we could certainly put in the same effort and build out what we need for the physical equipment - computer hardware and software, etc. is specialized, though we have a lot of wizzes at that stuff out there, too.
I'd also add (a day later) that we can build hulls for pretty good size USVs at active small shipyards in secondary ports that produce shipping vessels and pleasure craft. You make the hulls and mount the engines et al, then ship it off to add the electronics and software at HII or others. There is no reason this couldn't be mobilized to effect just as we mobilized such resources in WWII.
But it takes leadership. That is all it ever took. We've been on vacation and nobody has been steering the ship. We're not on the rocks yet, but we need to have somebody with a plan and a GO order.
well of course, "blimps" caught my eye.
and....meh....nah. Various entities have been pursuing "high altitude" lighter-than-air blimps for a loooooooong time now. The tech just isn't there, really. and so unnecessary, IMHO' when, for far less money, and far, far more quickly, we can field dozens of smaller, stealthy airships that; while operating from sea level to, oh, 5,000'; can do the same ISR work, even though they don't individually have that larger overhead view.
do-able, now, not someday
Au contraire mon frère! "The U.S. Army’s new Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) short-range ballistic missile has, for the first time, been successfully employed against a moving target at sea. Taking place during the Valiant Shield 24 Sink Exercise (SINKEX), the engagement also involved high-altitude balloons, equipped with “electromagnetic spectrum sensors and radio networking equipment,” and an ultra-long-endurance aerial drone, which were part of the kill chain. The scenario is very much indicative of the kind of distributed sensor/shooter network the Army has been working on for years now and which is seen as particularly relevant in the Pacific theater." https://www.twz.com/land/armys-new-prsm-ballistic-missile-hits-moving-ship-for-the-first-time-in-pacific-test
yep, balloons. no quibble 'bout that; been doing high altitude for years and years. practical...somewhat. (witness infamous "China spy balloon")
Well, wait...it wasn't about "balloons". That is just the platform to get the technology in the air - could be LTA, balloons, blimps, whatever. I agree on LTAs - a lot of lift capacity, a lot of mobility, could carry a lot of power generation for directed energy weapons, carry missiles, AESA radar or SPY 3/6 and STILL carry all the sensors and communications equipment and crew for running unmanned vehicles. Probably outside of the envelope for detection, strikes, or interdiction by the enemy, too.
So we have the technology to do it at various altitudes, the communications equipment and software - we just need the platforms.
"How long will we allow military professionals to benchmark marketing over sound military planning?"
Unfortunately, at least until we lose the first major battle. Maybe longer. Then it's a slog to build up to true battle readiness.
It's depressing, but solving the logistics, acquisition, procurement, RDT&E, funding, and Congessional issues that have been talked about for 20 years won't matter until we replace our current bureaucratic GOFOs with warfighting (a word I hate) GOFOs. And that will take war at this point. Look at the battlefield replacement rate at the start of WW2.
Recruiting and retention is in the doldrums. Are we even getting and keeping the best & brightest anymore? Are those kinds of folks even promotable now? I do not know. Whatever passes for the best & brightest during the next dozen or so promotion cycles is frightening.
Dale, let's face it, the best and the brightest were not promotable when you and I both left active duty in 1991. I know for a fact that promotion boards were already being told who to promote based on immutable birth characteristics at that time. It has metastasized since then.
Does it go back that far?? I left in 93 with a lot of pretty solid reasonings, but had the deep rot we see today already started that far back??
It did. I served with an EW superstar twice. When he was an EW2 and I had transferred to CincPacFlt I had him drafted as a technical advisor for Project Garlic Clove. He saw the project to a successful conclusion after I transferred. Won an award for it. Later when I was a CWO we served together on an FFG. He qualified as a JOOD as an EW1 and was one of our best bridge watchstanders. He promoted to EWCS in 11 years. First time up for E-9 (late 80's) he got picked, #5 of 5 picks because of minimal seniority. DC kicked the picks back and was told to pick a minority. There weren't many but they picked the best one and had to bump my old shipmate.
This old lifer says you were smart to get out when you did. The skills you learn in the Navy are yours to keep. (I remember that whenever I soogie the head.) Hopefully, you've had a great life since you got out. As my wife says, "You do the first tour for the adventure, the second tour for the money. After that, you don't fit in anywhere else."
You are right, Harry. That handwriting was chiseled on the wall, noticeable, even back then. I reckon it never affected me much, though. In the EW and 712X and 612X communities, we were very homogenous. To have been a minority would have meant having red hair. I only remember meeting one ginger, a guy I served with twice. When we were both RD2's on a DDG he was the one who ignored the tag out and energized and spun the AN/SPS-10 radar while I was aloft doing some minor maintenance. 20 years later we were stationed together, him an EWC and me a LT, his DIVO. We never talked and he avoided me as if I were Typhoid Mary. I don't recall us ever having those B&W 5x7 torso shots for E-7 and up promotion boards. The times I applied for OCS, CWO(2), LDO(2) I had to submit a photo with the package. Guess I was lucky that a B&W photo can't discern blue eyes or sandy brown hair going to gray well enough to deselect. Back then, despite my heritage, and before skin cancer was a thing, I used to tan really dark. When I first met my wife she thought I was Mexican. Who knows? I would have been in zone for LCDR in 1992 and 1993. My middle name is Clinton. I might have made it despite any handicap. Anyway, I think the Navy always treated me fairly. Those were better times.
Well put. The U. S. Government, civilian and military, (and most corporations as well) is cursed with managers who want to make a big name for themselves by proposing grandiose plans, inflating their benefit, and minimizing the cost. The Peter Principle is on full display everywhere. I worked at (mumble) air traffic control tower with a few transfers in and out from 1982-2019, and in that time the FAA spent 8 million dollars on five different studies to replace the 1959 tower building. They paid to relocate a street so they could build one proposed tower where the street used to be, but no construction has occurred. My former coworkers still work in the asbestos-filled 1959 tower.
Cutting the MQ-4 buy is so stupid I lack the words for it. Yes, the airplane could use a bigger engine, and the ELINT/SIGINT capabilities might have been better put in a dedicated airframe...but it's got a hell of a lot of capability. And the BAMS-D team worked out how to make a high altitude UAV work for naval missions.
I smell something. Not sure if it's the usual anti-UAV prejudice, or the money being siphoned off to some other bogus scheme.
Having said that, I have long been convinced that a frontal charge into the South China Sea is a fool's errand. Follow the good example of Admiral Jellicoe, cut off the approaches to the Straits of Malacca, and wait patiently for the blockade to do its work.
Do you expect China to set idly by?
It's not like they have dozens of submarines, right?
Guesstimates, but China has ~6 nuke subs and somewhere between 65 and 80 conventional subs. I doubt that our bubbleheads are blase about the threat the Chinese subs pose to us.
Yeah, IIRC one nuke +2 in construction are rather apparently quiet, plus 20some AIP SSs. And then another ~8 SSN and 50+ SS that are varying degrees of not very quiet.
I would certainly hope that whoever is supposedly enforcing the blockade from their a DDG has a really top-notch ASW game on. How easily would a DDG detect say a Sturgeon-class running underneath a Chinese VLCC?
No...but this is the same situation that Jellicoe faced in the First World War. He could have tried a close blockade of German ports, and sucked up the losses to torpedo boats and subs. Or he could block the Norway-UK gap in the North Sea, deny the Germans cheap attrition tactics, and force them to fight on his terms or not at all.
I'd feel a hell of a lot better about winning in the Indian Ocean than the South China Sea.
That is a cogent analysis, and an excellent analogy. The smarts on this discussion board are exceeded only by the stupids who are actively squandering our future.
We will need to block their way north now too, but Korea, Japan and Alaska ought to cover that.
Or tell the Ukrainians "Weapons free" on Russian railways and pipelines heading to China.
geez. somebody finally NAILS it! couple hundred "likes" here, Sir!
Sure, keep encouraging the Ukes to push the limits of using U.S./NATO arms & personnel in the war against Russia. At some point Russia is going to employ the FAFO principle.
This is ONLY in the event China attacks a neighbor, specially Taiwan or the Philippines.
Most of the brass gets plugged into aerospace inc. The likes of northrop grumman lockheed martin boeing to name a few. They don’t care , because the legal status of us citizens equates to that of serfs. Their future generations are on the hook for the bill. That’s why the border is open. They need more us citizens to pay the bill. Drop your Venezuelan right to travel passport documents at the border and the 14th amendment picks you up there under its jurisdiction.
Repeal the reconstruction amendments 14-17 problem solved
End suffering women, repeal the 19th!
Having actually launched similar equipment my first question is on what kind of platforms are they going to be based and how will they be delivered? Unless you have the right delivery systems you won't be able to put large numbers of anything in the water or air. For the most part i believe that this equipment should be air droppable because surface deployment in a non-permisdive environment is going to cost non-replaceable resources especially people.
timely. news just in, CCP saying they intercepted air dropped UUV.
yer right, 'n lots 'n lots of them...
"D+30" uhmm, I read that as "day" thirty. ???
gotta be a typo. ya really meant HOUR Thirty, dintcha?