156 Comments

“You have to answer for Santino, Carlo.”

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"By Grabthar's hammer, you shall be avenged."

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Hoka Hey Hiyupo! Today is a good day to die, let's go!

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founding

Absolutely right on. Thank you. Now,about those "Deplorable naval units"--is that a typo or Freudian slip?

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author

LOLOLOL..I'll blame autocorrect. mefixie.

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Both "deplorable" and "deployable" are equally accurate in that context!

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Just ask the Marines who were left behind in Afghanistan.

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Israel avenged our Beirut Marines, we still owe the Taliban for the Afghanistan Marines.

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Let’s not forget the hostages in Iran.

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That was Praying Mantis, or support for Saddam, or something.

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Iran has taken American hostages multiple times, including during the Iran hostage crisis of 1979–1981:

Event

Details

Iran hostage crisis

In November 1979, Iranian militants seized 66 Americans in Tehran, holding 52 of them hostage for 444 days. The crisis ended on January 20, 1981.

Other hostage-taking

In 2007, Haleh Esfandiari was held hostage for more than 100 days while visiting her mother in Tehran.

Iran has also taken hostages through proxy militias in the region. Some say that Iran uses hostage-taking as a way to trade hostages for Iranians in prison in the U.S., and to gain leverage with the U.S. on other issues

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And Cambodia.

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Yep - on all counts.

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One can only hope they get to finish the job this time.Next what to do with belligerent imported populations back home?

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"what to do with belligerent imported populations back home?"

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Israel can, of course, win the kinetic aspect of these conflicts. That is not the great challenge.

After the rain of Israeli destruction stops... after there are no longer 2 stones standing on top of each other... and yet the populations, driven by the ideology of jihadi Islam, do not surrender, then what does a nation state do to protect itself from millions of non-state actors who, to paraphrase Golda Meir: "hate the Jews more than they love their children".

The answer to the above question seems to be> deal with the source of the problem, which is Iran.

Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis , etc are merely the current proxies for the Mullahs in charge of Iran to express their white hot malevolence towards Israel. Without Iranian funding the proxies are not an unmanageable security issue. Time to get real about that and go right to the source. Let the Iranians know that, going forward, so long as these proxies are funded by Iran, Israel will seek to kill every single Iranian leader and IRGC general they can get at.

... send the message by txt.

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Iran is in some alternate universe where launching ballistic missiles at a nation 1000km away is not an overt act of war.

Time to dissuade them of their misconception and return them to this universe. I suggest an equal number of Israeli ballistic missiles (Jericho-III) be returned to them. Seems only fair. Fortunately the Jericho has a conventional warhead option.

I'd be willing to bet a dollar that Israel's missiles are more accurate, and more 'sploidy than the crap Iran sent over. I wonder if Irans BMD system is up to the task.

But I would not destroy Kharg Island, or the oil tanks or refueling points. One target (either for a couple of MIRV's, or even better, a spec ops team) would be the control center, and the pumping stations. Why waste the oil?

The rest of the warheads can go to Tehran, and Qom, and Bandar Abbas, and Isfahan, and Tabriz and a few other places....

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The source of the problem seems to be a specific culture and solidified as a religion, that religion being Islam.

If Dubbya wanted to win, the Iraqistan wars would have included a denazification program, with the n-word here being Islam. Cultures and religions can be changed: it was done in Mecca, Medina and Constantinople. It can be done again, if the will and unity to do so exists.

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It always seems there are a number of people in Iran that would appreciate removal of their radical leadership. Perhaps if our leadership was less interested in working with theirs something could be done

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That's one solution.

Another is that if there is indeed a cadre of reasonable, civilized people in Iran (indeed in any musselman nation) that they kick these 7th century revnants the hell out, and create a civilized nation - such as Iran was prior to 1979

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Agreed, it does come down to people being willing to fight for their own rights

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Great read Sal. My heart and soul is with the Israelis. Khomeni better be residing a lot lower underground than the ex leader of the Lebanon terror group.

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I think you might have meant Khamenei? Khomeini's been permanently underground for decades.

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Agreed...the whole lot of them are a scourge on civilization as we know it.

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Oct 2Liked by CDR Salamander

Great article. In this sentence "While at the end of the first quarter of the 21st Century shows the scourge of Shia Wahhabi fundamentalist threats to modernity waning (mostly)" - I believe you meant "the scourge of Sunni Wahhabi threats".

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Great read, thank you Commander Sal.

Israel *should* finish this business.

The Houtis... as the other Sal pointed out, not really our problem, but since WE ARE AT WAR WITH IRAN

Yemen is a great place to take them out.

Starting with their Survailance ships in the Red Sea, including their drone control stations in Yemen, and as many Iranians as can be found in Yemen.

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Cutting off the targeting system and the number of strikes will diminish. For a while. And then Iran will ship AI-enabled self-targeting drones to the Bab al-Mandab Strait. And then we will need to figure our an answer to that problem. But targeting the targeting sites is a necessary next step, as long as we can figure out our next step before Iran figures out *their* next step. OODA loop..

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"then Iran will ship AI-enabled self-targeting drones... And then we will need to figure our an answer to that problem. "

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The Mullahs of Iran ship materiel' because under their current cost/benefit analysis they net benefit (as they define it).

The answer to that problem is simple> change the Mullah's cost/benefit equation.

Let the Iranians know that, going forward, so long as their proxies continue to be funded by Iran, Israel will seek to kill every single Iranian leader and IRGC general they can get at.

... maybe convey that message by txt.

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That would seem to rational people as a very clear message. OTOH, is the Iranian leadership rational? I submit that the only answer to that is to ask to what extent the 12th-Imam crowd control that leadership.

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" is the Iranian leadership rational? "

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Let's give it shot and find out. The Iranian leadership will be either dead; or alive and not attacking Israel. I don't see any downside on this for Israel.

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POTUS is weak and incapable of making decisions quickly and effectively. Israel is right to call the tune on this war.

Consider that the Islamic Republic is the source of the problems, I hope Israel settles the business effectively.

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How does POTUS , other than Supply Chain get to call Offensive Shots in this Spat ? He does Not . ISRAEL Listens..then does what it wants anyway .

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POTUS doesn’t know where he is.

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Win did U ask Hymn ???

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Worse, Obama and Biden were sympathetic to Iran.

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Now that is an Un Proveable Claim .

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Palletized bundles of cash would be considered sufficient proof in most courts.

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Was that because of the IRAN Sanctions that separated IRANIAN Banks from the World Banking System ? & what was the Source of the $$$ ? Was this the Frozen Assets from the IRAN Tomcat Deal ? You seem to Ignore How & Why IRAN got their own Money back .

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They've certainly employed several apologists for Iran, and a few spies as well.

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Are sympathetic.

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I doubt POTATUS can determine when his depends need freshening, anymore.

And THROATUS is just useless.

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Is THROATUS the Kamapocalypse?

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Indeed. She has found her "Peter Principle" level

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Oct 2Liked by CDR Salamander

Good piece Commander. Thank you. Many forget that Iran has been at the heart of the problem since 1979, using their proxies to put a thumb the eye of any peace plan or competing war plan in the region for that matter. In an eerily prescient bit of timing, Jack Carr just published the first in a new series of nonfiction books on ter ror incidents this week. “Targeted: Beirut” about the 1983 attacks. To understand the present we must first understand the past.

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Although tbf, the Marines were there because Israel got a bit over their skis trying to set up a friendlier government in Lebanon.

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Iran and its proxies are a legacy of Jimmy Carter who did all he could to undermine the Shah and pave the way for the Ayatollahs.

In all fairness to Slick Willie it seemed possible that following the collapse of the USSR and Desert Storm peace between Israel and the Palestinians could be achieved.

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Continuing to support the Shah would have had the same ending as US support of Bautista in Cuba, Nguyễn Văn Thiệu in South Vietnam, Saddam during the Iran-Iraq War, and the Mujahedeen during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. This is not a failure of politics/diplomacy on the part of the US (both parties have been screwing up foreign policy since WW2). It's a failure of the US government and electorate to understand the deep-simmering cultural hatreds that exist around the globe—and our part in perpetuating many of them. We don't understand the rules of the game. As a result, the winners will be those who do—in this case (as Sal noted), the PRC.

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Oct 2·edited Oct 2

The person who did the most to undermine the Shah was the Shah. Iran had been in fits and starts moving toward, and its people clearly desired, since the early 1900s, a few things from their leadership including:

-Representative government

-Internal control of their resources and more equitable benefit from them

-Less outside involvement in their internal affairs

-Retention of their customary cultural institutions

The Shah failed to appease these desires of his people and came to personify nearly the opposite of the populations desires. Meanwhile the Islamic revolutionaries at least promised to appease some of them. As many monarchs who become too disconnected from their population have found over the years his head was headed for a basket.

As we should have learned many times over from Vietnam to Afghanistan, if you pick a leader to run a foreign country, you better pick well or be prepared for the dirty business of picking often. We clearly did not pick well in 1953, and as happens our elites got too attached to the westernized Iranian elites and so never saw the forest for the trees until it was too late to do much without getting very dirty.

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If accounts in public are correct, Eisenhower forbade the US Embassy from interfering in the Royalist/Mossadegh skirmish. Kermit Roosevelt violated the order and assisted the Shah, which was enough to tip a near balance.

IDK if this is the full or accurate story, it's something that was published in the early 2000s after some time limit on classified documents ran out.

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Oct 2·edited Oct 2

As we remember what lead up to this moment, lets not forget to mention the little 18 + year project by the US in Iraq. Remember it's poor assumptions, poor management, propaganda, manipulations and the results: removing a barrier to Iranian western expansion, handing Iran leverage, influence and operating room in Iraq, and beyond and opening a communications corridor to their proxies on the Mediterranean.

One of the dumbest pieces of foreign policy work ever accomplished. About like pointing a ten gauge at your foot and pulling the trigger to solve your athletes foot itch. Neither the Houthis, Hamas, Hezbollah or the Iranian directed militias in Iraq would have the leverage, arrogance, or be the threat they are without that fiasco.

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A ++ Analysis == Truth

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Once again, The Smartest People in the Room™ (with the State Department and CIA in the middle of the circle) prove they aren't.

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I now wonder if State's problem is lack of intelligence or if it's lack of loyalty. Years ago I'd have immediately dismissed that notion. Not now.

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wonder how/if the muslim brotherhood is/will play in all of this? rubbed out sadat and made a play for mecca decades ago. seems there are many potential combinations at play. jew. sunni. shia. arab. persian. perfect confusion for outsiders.

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They got hammered by the Egyptian military when they overreached by getting elected then eliminating their opposition or putting them in jail.

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I thought General Clapper said the Muslim Brotherhood was a civic organization. That was before he signed the letter about Hunter’s laptop.

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That's what Huma told him, lol

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CDR Sal, one of your best, IMO. Well done, drawing the juicy bits out of a WW III stew. Thoughts, yeah, got a few. Great last line to the article: "The greatest geo-strategic beneficiary of all this? The People’s Republic of China." Concur...Umm...So far. Consider the "what next" in this seemingly slow motion catastrophe (we're a year into this!?!): China imports 91% of Iran's oil. Israel could...could... degrade Iran's ability to ship oil (via Kharig Island, a single point of failure). Degrade to zero should they choose, I suspect. Insert economic impact here. Suspect backdoor channels exist between Israel, Russia, China, EU, USA, requiring a game of "telephone" with how things get communicated to Iran...great possibility for "misinterpreted" messages here. Israel has to suspect (with very good intelligence) Iran is close to a nuclear breakout, and knows once they have it, the dynamics of the region will change in ways beyond prediction. Thinking way high level, if Iran breaks the nuclear "seal" that has kept that particular brand of WMD in the bottle all these years, can Ukraine be next? Taiwan?

Guam? Soooo...what Israel is doing for its own survival, impacts the region, the world, and as members of the world, all of the Smartest People In the Room (TM) in the U.S. government. Not sure I'm feeling real good about this...

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Selective targets on Kharg Island. Small lever; great movement at the other end. That could just change the PRC dynamic at the Bab al-Mandab Strait. But since all good intentions have the potential for negative outcomes, the question then becomes "Do our forces have a satisfactory ROE with regard to PRC threat indicators?"

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Hopefully not as restrictive as the ROE's that let the Iranian speedboats close to within 100 yards of our warships. How quickly we forget the Cole.

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When USS Cole was hit by terrorists in a speedboat and our sailors were killed, the employees of Ingalls (builder of Cole) felt a personal loss for those lives. Without going into details in this public forum, we have the technology to prevent that type of loss in the future.

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Perhaps. At some point in the future we will have the chance to find out.

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Nothing to fear CDR........Sullivan is on the job!

"..our National Security Advisor had about as much of a 180-degree lockoff from a proper assessment of the situation as can be. From Kabul to Gaza, generations of national security professionals will study NSA Sullivan’s serial incompetence, and leadership professionals will try to understand the complete lack of accountability from his boss."

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It’s too bad the current administration doesn’t use pysops (spelling?) by saying this:

‘It’s funny that Iran got Hamas, Hezbolah, and Yemen to die for the cause while their military sits fat and happy in Iran’ or something like this.

Net is - the proxies are too stupid to realize that they’re dying for Iran while Iranians are doing sheet for the cause.

Where are Iranians dying.

You have to be incredibly dumb to send your people to die for the mullahs.

They’re being played and have been for decades.

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They are dying for paradise. Not a bad deal.

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Imagine growing up in a religion that wants to turn you into an incel and that there is a shortage of slaves and goats. Now imagine dying in the service of your Higher Power and being rewarded by not 1 six-pack of nubile cuties but 12...a whole dozen six-packs of them. 72, count 'em, 72. They all have to be thinking, "Whadda deal! Sign me up".

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It's "psyops" but if we do some "hooked on phonics" with your version ("pys ops"), I think we get an accurate portrayal of current leadership operations.

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CARTER was a Well Intentioned IDIOT by Not supporting the Shah . This Current one sided War will solve Nothing in the Long run . A lot of us will not live long enough to experience 25 years into the future , about 2050 . Who created this mess to start with ? Maybe the British Palestine Policy of 1946 on ? Just as the British Empire has Divided up much of the world as it Dissolved Britains Colonial Empire or the Ottoman Empire after WW One . Does the British Aristocracy ever takes any responsibility for their Historical Malfunctions ? Don't we get referred to as " HAPPY TREASON DAY " around every 4th of JULY ?

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You can also blame the Ottoman Empire for joining the Central Powers in WWI.

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But it was Not the Ottomans that Divied Up the Spoils . The Ottoman's were already in the Empire Death throes from Continuous Wars with the Expantionist Russian Empire . I was surprised when I recently saw how many wars there were between the two .

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The effects of post-WWI maps reverberate even now.

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I wonder if Mr. Sykes and Mr. Picot realized just how much their actions would affect the world 100 years later. Or perhaps they did and it was one of those “hold my beer” moments.

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Good point. They had expectations, but so many things changed in terms of area of control/influence. I suspect many think that the Middle East countries have a century long history. Most do not, at least in its current form. We tend to think that we know what we doing, but those pesky unintended consequences always pop up.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sykes–Picot_Agreement

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Read something recently tying WWI issues back to 1871, and Crimean war, 1812 ...

Somebody said every European conflict derives from the mess after Charlemagne died, lol.

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Turtle upon Turtle upon Turtle....

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Ok then blame the Crusaders.

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I blame Gavrillo.

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You are Principly correct, as ever, Mr. Jet.

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"CARTER was a Well Intentioned IDIOT", MR SMITH? He was a purblind bliss-ninny. But he's a lucky guy. Nearly 100 years of age and near an end. He'll be grinning that famous grin knowing he's not the worst President ever. https://people.com/thmb/yZ396KGyD8DK3r6L6WXsuKIB7EE=/4000x0/filters:no_upscale():max_bytes(150000):strip_icc():focal(718x0:720x2):format(webp)/jimmy-carter-10-d100e7dec34b4845808277b67a56478c.jpg

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Depending on the next few months he might not even be in the bottom three

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Too true. Thanks for the doomshine. ☺

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