The fate of Japan will be determined not by China but rather if she succumbs to the siren call of demographic replacement with cheap non-Japanese labor. The reason Japan is great is that it is full of Japanese and therefore not full of the third world. If that changes Japan will end up like the West.
South Korea is in the process of falling off a demographic cliff; their fertility rate may be the lowest in the world. The average woman has something like 0.78 children, which means the current generation will be about 40 percent of the size of the generation that produced it and, if that rate continues, the children of the currently fertile generation will be only 1/6th the size of their grandparents' generation. Japan is also well below replacement fertility, but at around 1.3 it's doing better than Korea is.
Phillipenes not in that situation. The new closeness between the two countries holds great potential. US will lose in that we won't get so many great immigrants but overall it is a price worth paying.
My wife has done translation work for various Japanese companies. They are bringing in skilled labor, namely English speaking engineers from Australia, Canada, the USA, and some from India. They pay well and much of the corporation speaks English for their daily operations to support their foreign technical workers. But the deal is the work visa is for several years, and pays well, but no time toward immigration. It's a good deal for those wanting to live in Japan for several years and then return home. So the Japanese are being smart about who they let in and how they do it.
I spent more than a few years living in Japan and returned several times for work. Japan manages their imported labor force extremely well; as previously mentioned, they import engineers, but also import lower skilled workforce specific to their needs. The West has a problem with uncontrolled boarders, not a good comparison.
I've been to Japan twice, along with Okinawa, while in the Marines. Loved the country and the people. As long as you get out of the military liberty towns its great. One of my favorite places was Hiroshima. A short train ride from my base at Iwakuni. I would be "attacked" by Japanese high school and college students needing a native English speaker to practice with. English was a required subject in both HS and college. I always had a good time with the kids. We'd go to a tea shop and set up for several hours talking and drinking cha. I learned a lot of the Japanese language and a lot about their culture in return. Of course this was back in the 1970s.
I have coworker from Tibet that's a pretty amazing guy. He got his Ph.D. in electrical engineering in Japan. In his Ph.D. program they had to do their presentations in English. Boy do I feel like a slug who took the path of least resistance.
As a resident of Japan there are a couple of things to note
First Japan can still build things competently. They're beyond breaking ground on TSMC fab 2 and most of the way to getting fab 3 started. Fab 1 is either in production or in final test. Compare with TSMC in AZ. And Tokyo is in a flurry of rebuilding because the buildings built in the 70s are coming up on 50 years old which was the design life for some of them.
Plus ships. I'll be driving through Imabari soon and it's impressive to see the shipyards. (Ob Pink Floyd: "If it wasn't for the Nips, being so good at building ships, the yards would still be open on Clyde..." ). I haven't yet seen the monster yard where they build the Ever Given size container ships but I'd like to.
Second Japan is far less infected by wokery and green stuff. It's present, you see crap about SDGs and Eshicaru (Ethical) this and that, but far less. Japan has actually built new coal plants for example.
Japan's approach to coal is brilliant and based upon maintaining a foundation of domestic energy security. Not only is the Nakoso power plant state-of-the-art, IGCC's has the ability to utilize a wide range of coal grades for the imported feedstocks, meaning that they are not beholden to any given country as a supplier. The other benefits of IGCC over pulverized coal are lower emissions, less volume of solid waste in the form of ash, and lower demand for cooling water. https://www.powermag.com/japan-ushers-in-new-era-for-igcc-coal-power/
Misumi 2 is an ultra-supercritical plant. It is also a very modern design. USC extracts about 15% more energy per ton of coal. The first USC plant here in the States was the Turk power plant in Arkansas which came online back in 2012. Thanks to the new EPA rules (if upheld) it will no longer be burning coal come 2030. A plant with a design life of 50-75 years finished at 18. Sounds like a little crappy ship but with more usefulness.
Wasn't it only yesterday that the President of the United States entertained the President of China at his mansion in Florida? His beautiful wife wore a silk Chinese dress and his grandchildren sang Chinese folk songs to make the visitor feel at home. Today, we are rattling sabers. What happened?
Really heartened by Japan. Australia worries me though. They are having the same western culture crisis that is killing the UK and threatening the US. The First Amendment of the US Constitution is the global bellwether for true liberal culture and for that exact reason, is under attack in the 5eyes and Europe.
Don't be deceived by recent events in Australia. Look at the results of last year's "Voice" referendum. There is a silent supermajority who still have the hard-nosed Aussie common sense we kiwis love to hate.
Also, they are one of the few countries that manages to do immigration and pensions sustainably.
Note that I have always assumed Japan has some plan Bs involving other regional players. For example there have been collaborations with the Philippine navy recently and I've seen distinct hints (but obviously quiet for historical reasons) on cooperation with (South) Korea
I don't expect a deal with the Chicoms of West Taiwan. Really don't. Lots of bad historical blood there. Plus the recent clear strengthening of ties with Taiwan itself.
Yes but closer to or after the probable economic reckoning. China’s behavior toward Japan’s officers now would only damage what might be gained. And Navy yes, not Army, at least to begin.
All this talk about declining populations seems to miss the feedback mechanisms that will surely come into play.
So people can't afford the housing and costs for kids on even two incomes.
If population declines, then the return on labor goes up. One male income could support a family. A stay-at-home mother further reduces the worker pool, further driving up wages.
If population declines, then there will be a glut of housing and rents/prices will decline. One male income could pay the rent or the mortgage.
Hence the economic factors that cause population declines will abate and turn the other way.
This does assume that per capita productivity increases which is a pretty good bet if we have cheap energy and that we have managed borders and controlled immigration.
In the financial times article it appeared to suggest one can by property in Japan. When were Gaijin given that opportunity and what are the strings? Also, similar to China, Japan has wanted 51 percent voting on companies, but my experience/knowledge is dated. Glad to see chip making moving fast into Japan. Wonder what the conditions of that agreement for the Taiwanese side are?
The great worry should be the influx of Chinese to Japan. Everywhere, this is no exaggeration, everywhere they go they consume resources (educational, intel, etc), displace locals, commit espionage of all kinds (industrial, military, political) and fund groups to disrupt the host country’s cultural and economic well being. What the arrival of Chinese citizens signals is that Japan is viewed as a threat or that the Chinese believe there are new things to steal or, most likely, both. The arrival of the Chinese on anybody’s shores for the last 50 years has not bode well for them.
Operating with the IJN--er, JMSDF--- I found them to be thoroughly professional, very competent, and pretty hard nosed in their planning. Hope we can keep up with them should that be required.
The fate of Japan will be determined not by China but rather if she succumbs to the siren call of demographic replacement with cheap non-Japanese labor. The reason Japan is great is that it is full of Japanese and therefore not full of the third world. If that changes Japan will end up like the West.
Japan is clearly well aware of the demographic issues. I think they will succeed in navigating the threats of depopulation and excess immigration
I am hopeful because the one thing Japan will not do is import moslems for labor. I can see Koreans (I believe they already do).
Diminishing labor pool plucking from a diminishing labor pool. That won't help us or them.
Yes, I read something subsequently about S. Korea being in the same situation. Who could they draw from is the question.
I guess Vietnam and the Philippines.
South Korea is in the process of falling off a demographic cliff; their fertility rate may be the lowest in the world. The average woman has something like 0.78 children, which means the current generation will be about 40 percent of the size of the generation that produced it and, if that rate continues, the children of the currently fertile generation will be only 1/6th the size of their grandparents' generation. Japan is also well below replacement fertility, but at around 1.3 it's doing better than Korea is.
Phillipenes not in that situation. The new closeness between the two countries holds great potential. US will lose in that we won't get so many great immigrants but overall it is a price worth paying.
" I can see Koreans ..."
Heh. Importing Korean laborers is kind of a tradition in Japan.
Disagree. Japan, above any other country, will do what is necessary for their survival - if that is communicated to their people.
There are no more Spartans. Don't be one.
My wife has done translation work for various Japanese companies. They are bringing in skilled labor, namely English speaking engineers from Australia, Canada, the USA, and some from India. They pay well and much of the corporation speaks English for their daily operations to support their foreign technical workers. But the deal is the work visa is for several years, and pays well, but no time toward immigration. It's a good deal for those wanting to live in Japan for several years and then return home. So the Japanese are being smart about who they let in and how they do it.
I spent more than a few years living in Japan and returned several times for work. Japan manages their imported labor force extremely well; as previously mentioned, they import engineers, but also import lower skilled workforce specific to their needs. The West has a problem with uncontrolled boarders, not a good comparison.
I've been to Japan twice, along with Okinawa, while in the Marines. Loved the country and the people. As long as you get out of the military liberty towns its great. One of my favorite places was Hiroshima. A short train ride from my base at Iwakuni. I would be "attacked" by Japanese high school and college students needing a native English speaker to practice with. English was a required subject in both HS and college. I always had a good time with the kids. We'd go to a tea shop and set up for several hours talking and drinking cha. I learned a lot of the Japanese language and a lot about their culture in return. Of course this was back in the 1970s.
I have coworker from Tibet that's a pretty amazing guy. He got his Ph.D. in electrical engineering in Japan. In his Ph.D. program they had to do their presentations in English. Boy do I feel like a slug who took the path of least resistance.
Too bad Korea has the same baby bust. Ignoring the history between them their gene pools are alike.
Check out Noah Smith's substack. He's an economist with a similar assessment of Japan in a May 7
post (and he has lots of other interesting stuff to say). https://substack.com/@noahpinion
just posted a link to the particular Noah Smith article.
As a resident of Japan there are a couple of things to note
First Japan can still build things competently. They're beyond breaking ground on TSMC fab 2 and most of the way to getting fab 3 started. Fab 1 is either in production or in final test. Compare with TSMC in AZ. And Tokyo is in a flurry of rebuilding because the buildings built in the 70s are coming up on 50 years old which was the design life for some of them.
Plus ships. I'll be driving through Imabari soon and it's impressive to see the shipyards. (Ob Pink Floyd: "If it wasn't for the Nips, being so good at building ships, the yards would still be open on Clyde..." ). I haven't yet seen the monster yard where they build the Ever Given size container ships but I'd like to.
Second Japan is far less infected by wokery and green stuff. It's present, you see crap about SDGs and Eshicaru (Ethical) this and that, but far less. Japan has actually built new coal plants for example.
Also https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/japan-is-not-a-xenophobic-country and (tooting my own horn https://ombreolivier.substack.com/p/japan-vs-san-francisco )
Japan's approach to coal is brilliant and based upon maintaining a foundation of domestic energy security. Not only is the Nakoso power plant state-of-the-art, IGCC's has the ability to utilize a wide range of coal grades for the imported feedstocks, meaning that they are not beholden to any given country as a supplier. The other benefits of IGCC over pulverized coal are lower emissions, less volume of solid waste in the form of ash, and lower demand for cooling water. https://www.powermag.com/japan-ushers-in-new-era-for-igcc-coal-power/
Huh. I didn't realize some of them at least were so special. The one near us (Misumi 2) is more standard I believe.
Misumi 2 is an ultra-supercritical plant. It is also a very modern design. USC extracts about 15% more energy per ton of coal. The first USC plant here in the States was the Turk power plant in Arkansas which came online back in 2012. Thanks to the new EPA rules (if upheld) it will no longer be burning coal come 2030. A plant with a design life of 50-75 years finished at 18. Sounds like a little crappy ship but with more usefulness.
“There is room for optimism … but not for rest. Much work to be done.”
o7
Wasn't it only yesterday that the President of the United States entertained the President of China at his mansion in Florida? His beautiful wife wore a silk Chinese dress and his grandchildren sang Chinese folk songs to make the visitor feel at home. Today, we are rattling sabers. What happened?
Freedom isn't supposed to look pretty.
Really heartened by Japan. Australia worries me though. They are having the same western culture crisis that is killing the UK and threatening the US. The First Amendment of the US Constitution is the global bellwether for true liberal culture and for that exact reason, is under attack in the 5eyes and Europe.
Kiwi here.
Don't be deceived by recent events in Australia. Look at the results of last year's "Voice" referendum. There is a silent supermajority who still have the hard-nosed Aussie common sense we kiwis love to hate.
Also, they are one of the few countries that manages to do immigration and pensions sustainably.
The countries mentioned should wonder just how good an ally America is given recent events.
Note that I have always assumed Japan has some plan Bs involving other regional players. For example there have been collaborations with the Philippine navy recently and I've seen distinct hints (but obviously quiet for historical reasons) on cooperation with (South) Korea
If you were Japan would you rather cut a deal with China or fight knowing America had your back?
I don't expect a deal with the Chicoms of West Taiwan. Really don't. Lots of bad historical blood there. Plus the recent clear strengthening of ties with Taiwan itself.
Expect the unexpected in international affairs.
Like the US had the back of the Afghans, Shah of Iran, the Kurds, the Vietnamese, and now the Israelis?
Said he who an not tell an apple from an orange.
An too!
That was his point.
Depends on the deal. Let’s hope not.
Japan needs some ambitious young Army officers to visit Northern China. PROVE ME WRONG.
Yes but closer to or after the probable economic reckoning. China’s behavior toward Japan’s officers now would only damage what might be gained. And Navy yes, not Army, at least to begin.
"PROVE ME WRONG."
I think history has already done that.
Glad someone got the joke!
All this talk about declining populations seems to miss the feedback mechanisms that will surely come into play.
So people can't afford the housing and costs for kids on even two incomes.
If population declines, then the return on labor goes up. One male income could support a family. A stay-at-home mother further reduces the worker pool, further driving up wages.
If population declines, then there will be a glut of housing and rents/prices will decline. One male income could pay the rent or the mortgage.
Hence the economic factors that cause population declines will abate and turn the other way.
This does assume that per capita productivity increases which is a pretty good bet if we have cheap energy and that we have managed borders and controlled immigration.
The young will be enslaved to pay the pensions of the old.
Decent point - retirees do dampen per capita productivity gains since they are not productive.
So my assumption ("per capita productivity increases") covers that. But pensions are a burden.
In the financial times article it appeared to suggest one can by property in Japan. When were Gaijin given that opportunity and what are the strings? Also, similar to China, Japan has wanted 51 percent voting on companies, but my experience/knowledge is dated. Glad to see chip making moving fast into Japan. Wonder what the conditions of that agreement for the Taiwanese side are?
The great worry should be the influx of Chinese to Japan. Everywhere, this is no exaggeration, everywhere they go they consume resources (educational, intel, etc), displace locals, commit espionage of all kinds (industrial, military, political) and fund groups to disrupt the host country’s cultural and economic well being. What the arrival of Chinese citizens signals is that Japan is viewed as a threat or that the Chinese believe there are new things to steal or, most likely, both. The arrival of the Chinese on anybody’s shores for the last 50 years has not bode well for them.
Operating with the IJN--er, JMSDF--- I found them to be thoroughly professional, very competent, and pretty hard nosed in their planning. Hope we can keep up with them should that be required.
Good to have confirmation.
Japan is great!
"China looks downright scary when viewed from Japan. "
Probably from a bit of a guilty conscience. Karma and all that.