What do you think of the gender imbalance in China caused by the one child policy? No country in history has had 50 million extra men than women. A massive population of angry young men who outnumber most other countries' entire populations is a disruptive force that could cause revolt from within or invade abroad.
"These factors should cause the PRC to return to what is their primary concern, internal stability, and be less interested in foreign adventures not directly related to food and fuel." 1.4 billion people just recently lifted up out of a meager existence to get a taste of middle class life are going to need an expansionist foreign policy to fuel their hopes and dreams. No one in China with cable TV, 3 squares a day, a tiny apartment, a bus pass and a cell phone wants to go back to be a rice paddy coolie living in a nipa hut. 1,400,000,000 people is a lot of internal stability to manage.
So are they willing to go full Zeihan and say China might be completely out of it in a decade or two?
And the German apprenticeship programs? According to a German MOD employee on another site, that's broken down. Used to be 20% unskilled/welfare, 60% apprenticeship, 20% college path. It's now about 50/50 unskilled/welfare and college.
I subscribe to the theory that the PRC will only become more dangerous as its window to achieve its strategic goals closes faster than anticipated. Besides, we haven't even passed the most dangerous part of this decade of concern. Anyway, I do not see a downside to being over prepared. But, we are not even close to being ready.
China can't convince its people to be dependent on market-economy lifeways. They'd rather lie flat, buy little to nothing, and live un-economic lives. Our people don't know how to live un-economic lives. Some of us starved while crops rotted in the field when the Whiz Kids' system required patching to handle COVID. It's been said the Chinese are, first and foremost, pragmatists. If we maintain parity in personnel and materiel, military solutions to economic problems look far less attractive than economic solutions.
“Meanwhile, the number of elderly Chinese will rise from 200 million to 500 million at midcentury, and providing for their needs will be a mounting challenge for China’s workers and policy makers.”
A thought provoking article but I would like to point out a few things.
Many countries regard the USA as a threat to intentional order not China. It was not China that attacked, invaded or sanctioned Cuba, Dominican Republic, Grenada, Haiti, Libya, Panama, Serbia, Venezuela, etc. and is now threatening Niger.
We are building military bases around China and throughout the world. China builds infrastructure throughout the world in a modern version of the Silk Road. I wonder how we would feel if China built bases in Bermuda, Canada, Mexico and Trinidad. Not too happy.
A few years ago Trump was entertaining Xi at his Florida estate. How did we come to be talking about using force to keep China within its borders?
Finally, China has problems bit so do we. Fiscal and trade imbalances. Inflation. Crime. Drugs. Roads. Air Traffic. Derailed trains. Corruption. Wild fires. Etc. China could easily make a case that it is America that is on the way down.
Sal is spot on. WSJ articles are recommended reading. As are US-China Economic and Security Review Commission Report, Heritage Index of Military Readiness and Hoover's China Sharp Power Project Reports. Must build more combatants. Must have more forward in INDOPACOM. Must fix shipbuilding industry. Must build alliances like QUAD and strengthen Asian alliances.
All this drum beating for a war against China over its non invasion reminds me of the drum beating for war over Iraq's non-existent WMD. Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice shame of me.
Recently it came to light that the CCP overcounted their younger population numbers by a million or more - definitely not good. Manufacturing re-shoring is already well underway and Xi's heavy-handed tactics, threats and China's disregard for IP are certainly meaningful contributors. I'm sure foreigners would love to live under a system so invested in social credit scores. And then there there all the indicators that point to a real estate bubble about to burst...
As Xi has removed anyone who might be a threat to him politically, just how much of this news reaches his ears and, who amongst his "inner" circle, is going to tell him that news? Hopefully none of it reaches his ears because we all know how much tyrants like surprises. Now if Europe actually plays a constructive role here, the math of China jumping ugly with her neighbors is a lot less likely. Can you say social unrest?
My wish is a partnership with the US and the world to advance the goals of making life better, free trade, eradication of world hunger and free navigation of the seas, maybe even a colony on the moon.
But as My dear old Aunt Nell used to say, wish in one hand shit in the other see which fills fastest.
I'm just a simple man and I get easily confused. I see experts here and elsewhere and I cannot reconcile what I hear. I deeply respect Sal and the Front Porch members that are all smarter than me. But, then I read stuff from Gordon Chang and Peter Zeihan and I can't make the ends connect. Is China the 800 pound gorilla or is it a house of cards, ready to collapse in a light breeze? Are both versions true? Neither?
Hitler thought that the USSR was a rotten house that would collapse. Boy, was he wrong!
As noted elsewhere in the comments, there are an awful lot of young Chinese males that want to have easy access to sex. They are not getting it at home. Testosterone is a wonderful, yet dangerous thing. Young men are willing to do a lot of dumb things for little reason to begin with, but throw in the biological imperative, and you have a load of oil soaked wood just waiting for a random spark to become a conflagration.
We fool ourselves, in the West, that there are such things as clean wars. Wars are about Sex and Resources. And the resources are just a way to procure more sex.
It seems that the closer the CCP realizes things are heading to a crisis, they unhinged their thinking will become.
But, on the flip side, do we really think there military is a huge boogey man? We, the West, especially the US and UK have deep institutional knowledge in Power Projection and Blue Water operations. The CCP can study naval theory, but they have very little operational experience. Do they concentrate on core skills like DC, or are they in the same boat (no pun intended) as they IJN and their lack of deep DC skills? Will they continue to Fight the Ship when all goes to Hell or will they fold like a cheap suit? Do they have a Commander Evans and a USS Johnston?
Having a metric butt ton of young angry men is one thing, but employing them them in a useful manner is a different kettle of fish.
What do you think of the gender imbalance in China caused by the one child policy? No country in history has had 50 million extra men than women. A massive population of angry young men who outnumber most other countries' entire populations is a disruptive force that could cause revolt from within or invade abroad.
"These factors should cause the PRC to return to what is their primary concern, internal stability, and be less interested in foreign adventures not directly related to food and fuel." 1.4 billion people just recently lifted up out of a meager existence to get a taste of middle class life are going to need an expansionist foreign policy to fuel their hopes and dreams. No one in China with cable TV, 3 squares a day, a tiny apartment, a bus pass and a cell phone wants to go back to be a rice paddy coolie living in a nipa hut. 1,400,000,000 people is a lot of internal stability to manage.
So are they willing to go full Zeihan and say China might be completely out of it in a decade or two?
And the German apprenticeship programs? According to a German MOD employee on another site, that's broken down. Used to be 20% unskilled/welfare, 60% apprenticeship, 20% college path. It's now about 50/50 unskilled/welfare and college.
I subscribe to the theory that the PRC will only become more dangerous as its window to achieve its strategic goals closes faster than anticipated. Besides, we haven't even passed the most dangerous part of this decade of concern. Anyway, I do not see a downside to being over prepared. But, we are not even close to being ready.
China can't convince its people to be dependent on market-economy lifeways. They'd rather lie flat, buy little to nothing, and live un-economic lives. Our people don't know how to live un-economic lives. Some of us starved while crops rotted in the field when the Whiz Kids' system required patching to handle COVID. It's been said the Chinese are, first and foremost, pragmatists. If we maintain parity in personnel and materiel, military solutions to economic problems look far less attractive than economic solutions.
“Meanwhile, the number of elderly Chinese will rise from 200 million to 500 million at midcentury, and providing for their needs will be a mounting challenge for China’s workers and policy makers.”
Soylent Green, anyone? 😁
A thought provoking article but I would like to point out a few things.
Many countries regard the USA as a threat to intentional order not China. It was not China that attacked, invaded or sanctioned Cuba, Dominican Republic, Grenada, Haiti, Libya, Panama, Serbia, Venezuela, etc. and is now threatening Niger.
We are building military bases around China and throughout the world. China builds infrastructure throughout the world in a modern version of the Silk Road. I wonder how we would feel if China built bases in Bermuda, Canada, Mexico and Trinidad. Not too happy.
A few years ago Trump was entertaining Xi at his Florida estate. How did we come to be talking about using force to keep China within its borders?
Finally, China has problems bit so do we. Fiscal and trade imbalances. Inflation. Crime. Drugs. Roads. Air Traffic. Derailed trains. Corruption. Wild fires. Etc. China could easily make a case that it is America that is on the way down.
If you want to simultaneously do right by the Chinese people while weakening the CCP, then send a flood of bibles and Christian missionaries to China.
Sal is spot on. WSJ articles are recommended reading. As are US-China Economic and Security Review Commission Report, Heritage Index of Military Readiness and Hoover's China Sharp Power Project Reports. Must build more combatants. Must have more forward in INDOPACOM. Must fix shipbuilding industry. Must build alliances like QUAD and strengthen Asian alliances.
All this drum beating for a war against China over its non invasion reminds me of the drum beating for war over Iraq's non-existent WMD. Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice shame of me.
Recently it came to light that the CCP overcounted their younger population numbers by a million or more - definitely not good. Manufacturing re-shoring is already well underway and Xi's heavy-handed tactics, threats and China's disregard for IP are certainly meaningful contributors. I'm sure foreigners would love to live under a system so invested in social credit scores. And then there there all the indicators that point to a real estate bubble about to burst...
As Xi has removed anyone who might be a threat to him politically, just how much of this news reaches his ears and, who amongst his "inner" circle, is going to tell him that news? Hopefully none of it reaches his ears because we all know how much tyrants like surprises. Now if Europe actually plays a constructive role here, the math of China jumping ugly with her neighbors is a lot less likely. Can you say social unrest?
My wish is a partnership with the US and the world to advance the goals of making life better, free trade, eradication of world hunger and free navigation of the seas, maybe even a colony on the moon.
But as My dear old Aunt Nell used to say, wish in one hand shit in the other see which fills fastest.
I'm just a simple man and I get easily confused. I see experts here and elsewhere and I cannot reconcile what I hear. I deeply respect Sal and the Front Porch members that are all smarter than me. But, then I read stuff from Gordon Chang and Peter Zeihan and I can't make the ends connect. Is China the 800 pound gorilla or is it a house of cards, ready to collapse in a light breeze? Are both versions true? Neither?
Hitler thought that the USSR was a rotten house that would collapse. Boy, was he wrong!
As noted elsewhere in the comments, there are an awful lot of young Chinese males that want to have easy access to sex. They are not getting it at home. Testosterone is a wonderful, yet dangerous thing. Young men are willing to do a lot of dumb things for little reason to begin with, but throw in the biological imperative, and you have a load of oil soaked wood just waiting for a random spark to become a conflagration.
We fool ourselves, in the West, that there are such things as clean wars. Wars are about Sex and Resources. And the resources are just a way to procure more sex.
It seems that the closer the CCP realizes things are heading to a crisis, they unhinged their thinking will become.
But, on the flip side, do we really think there military is a huge boogey man? We, the West, especially the US and UK have deep institutional knowledge in Power Projection and Blue Water operations. The CCP can study naval theory, but they have very little operational experience. Do they concentrate on core skills like DC, or are they in the same boat (no pun intended) as they IJN and their lack of deep DC skills? Will they continue to Fight the Ship when all goes to Hell or will they fold like a cheap suit? Do they have a Commander Evans and a USS Johnston?
Having a metric butt ton of young angry men is one thing, but employing them them in a useful manner is a different kettle of fish.