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In my study of DoD cost over runs, the one factor that kept coming up was the Program Managers’ inability to judge and manage technical risk. They think that have been taught how to do it because the people at the front of the classroom keeps insisting that they, the teachers, know what they are talking about. An objective look at the data unequivocally proves otherwise. And no one asks “Why?” But we still see promotions in that group. Until the Navy makes cost risk reduction a substantial element in a PM’s fitrep, we will continue to see failure.

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