hmmm. No mention of the Nordstream pipeline mysteriously blowing up. The recently completed Russian-German owned pipeline that Biden promised would be eliminated.
Not sure how Germany can pay for military hostilities against its natural economic partner (the one that provided it with low-cost energy and other natural resources for decades) when it has been de-industrialized and sabotaged by its supposed US ally.
the Kiel report shows most western militaries are not ready for a fight with Ru.
I blame the West; you can’t beat a country collectively over the head for almost 80yrs with World War II & the Holocaust & not expect them to be the same self-loathing cucks the rest of the West has become. The German Army of 1940 was THE finest fighting force the world has ever seen, crushing the French Army (then the largest in Europe) in six weeks & kicking England out of Europe four times: Dunkirk, Norway, Greece, & Dieppe (in 1942). They inflicted 3.5 million casualties on the Red Army in as many months & by Spring of 1942 had advance units in the town of Astrakhan on the Caspian Sea. That’s virtually the gateway to Asia.
Overextended? Yes. Fighting on too many fronts? Yes. But that’s another discussion. Just a gut feeling gleaned over many years of study & speaking with Veterans of both sides; the West was humiliated by German acumen in the Military Arts & determined to crush the Prussian spirit out of them once & for all. That’s most likely the reason they are so complacent/unsettled now with those things military in nature.
They’re scared of their own shadow anymore. An Austrian & a German friend (both Veterans) have told me point blank no one feels comfortable displaying patriotism anymore since they’ll be accused of being a “Nazi.”
It’s a culture thing. Pretty tough to get around that.
Yes. Combine that with nitwit Greenies in government and a union/labor culture so strong that it can determine policy and the recipe outcome is pretty obvious.
All of [Marxist] academia, everywhere, teaches that the U.S. has always been the war monger, not the Russians, not the Chinese.
But the effect of such indoctrination is different in Europe than in the U.S., because in Europe there is the physical proximity of the Russians, and few [Western] Europeans are going to fear the Russians because they've all been indoctrinated to think good-Russians bad-Americans.
The only Europeans who realize that view is bravo sierra are the Eastern Europeans, who for a half century had to live under the Russian Communist yoke.
To be fair, the Russians haven't initiated conflict with Europe (outside the Black Sea area, which has been in dispute for a millennium), but the Europeans have made a couple significant incursions over the past 200-odd years (Napoleon and Hitler).
I understand and concur that with a global Marxist ideology, they were a threat to the entire western world, but if one were to add aggressive activities, they seem to have been defender more often than not.
You're right, but do not underestimate the Russian appetite for territory for purpose of "security".
When Averell Harriman met Stalin in Potsdam, July 1945, Harriman said "it must be a great sensation to be standing victorious here" and Stalin replied "Czar Alexander went to Paris".
"A maritime fight in the Pacific simply is not their fight."
This informs Germany's entire foreign and industrial policy at the moment as well. Investments have been made in China, 'und ve shall recoup zem!' Come hell or high water. So why provide any support to even allow another nation to pivot to that region, when one's interests are served by Beijing's interpretation of "stability" in the region?
BK is spot on! As long as the US is providing the bulwark of defense for the middle of Europe, (Germany) the Germans will spend their budget on social welfare programs.
Great post Sal. Germany needs to fix its Germany problem first. Here’s a good recent podcast with a 30 year-plus member of the Bundestag, detailing the fatherland’s existential crisis: https://megaphone.link/TGF1938047955
Apparently the German frigates are just a jobs program for ship builders. What's the point of building such a ship that can't defend itself in any modern threat environment? Nor can it apparently go on the offensive. WTF Germany?
Tbf to the Germans, a lot of Americans advocate us building similar ships. It is EXTREMELY difficult to get a "concerned taxpayer" to understand that grandpa's M2 or Oerlikon doesn’t cut it anymore; let alone they cost a lot more to make nowadays.
Seems the Poles would prefer to gain more local (EU) sway in NATO decisions, and not have the vicissitudes of American politics steering the organization...and Poland's no joke self-defense.
So I would think they would be heartily nudging Germany to step up and take realistic stake in NATO's "Eastern Flank."
Also only half-jokingly, with the current state of Germany, military and civilian, the only thing stopping the Poles from doing just that is a lack of desire and/or political will to do so.
"The USA is not going to leave NATO, regardless of what some overly dramatic heavy breathers may say."
Eisenhower, 1951;
“If in 10 years, all American troops stationed in Europe for national defense purposes have not been returned to the United States, then this whole project [NATO] will have failed.”
Germany and the other non 2% deadbeat NATO members don't care. They know that even if they're evicted from the treaty the other countries will act as buffers.
Canada doesn't even care enough to protect its own economic interests in the arctic.
Ploughs and social programs have won the day over swords.
I think the only disagreement I have with you on this is the necessity of US involvement in the defense of Europe. I contend that US involvement may be desirable for political reasons but is not a necessity. Poland alone has about the same population as Ukraine and a much larger GDP. Add in the rest of Europe and it seems to me that NATO, even without the US, is more than a match for Russia. US involvement cannot take the place of Europe's lack of political will to expend the effort to defend itself.
And, frankly, the US does not, and will not for relevant future, have the resources to defend both East and West; a choice must be made. Sorry, folks, those duty assignments in Brussels, Stuttgart, etc. need to be moved West.
Non lethal armament in order to enable a non-provocative response? Is this kindergarten? A *warship* is afraid to provoke? What’s the opposite of full-bore?
And that tells me that Germany is a paper tiger at the moment.
Water cannons are firehoses; the USN has had this capability since the steam-powered fire pump. If memory serves, the old "Landing Party Manual," gave directions on the use of fire hoses on a crowd when loading civilians off a pier in an evacuation situation.
There is no reason a warship couldn't be bristling with weapons, and still have room for non-provocative weapons. Searchlights weigh nothing. Your water canons are already in the plans as the DC system.
I couldn't cite specifics from three decades in the past, but I recall discussion of rigging fire hoses to repel boarders as part of the quals for topside watch (subs).
Allegedly, USS Pennsylvania (SSBN-735) had a repel boarders incident the right before the commissioning ceremony where some anti-Trident hippies got firehosed.
Which probably served to the better of those hippies, depending on how enthusiastic they were about not bathing (hygiene being "bourgeois" or whatnot).
Germany is fucked. Germany suffers from social problems, massive immigration and a self abused notion of white guilt. They have had multiple generational struggles with their Nazi past and can’t and won’t rise above it.
Europe itself has squandered its future by throwing treasure and armaments at Ukraine that they can’t and won’t replace.
Europe is going to be consumed. By whom is the question?
Germany and France both dislike American leadership in Nato. A couple decades ago they tried forming a European army with each contributing some units. I haven't heard anything about it for a long time so maybe it didn't work out or was a victim of the peace dividend. Germany is rarely helpful with international issues. And France likes to pretend it's still important.
The Europeans will continue to take advantage of the U.S. as long as we allow it. Europeans in general, and Germans in particular, think Americans are foolish and naïve. They're not wrong.
Have relatives in Belgium, all of whom were taught by their Marxist academia that the U.S. post WW2 was the sole threat to world peace, this despite half the continent of Europe behind a wall of barbed wire and guard towers.
“The USA is not going to leave NATO, regardless of what some overly dramatic heavy breathers may say.”
Just call us “garbage” Sal, PedoJoe does.
But why should Germany do a damn thing when you take the ultimate consequences of their inaction? It’s just sad when those called garbage by the Democratic Party will be the ones fighting and dying for Germany.
Good luck with that wishful thinking. I was born in Germany, emigrated too the US, became a naturalized citizen, joined the Navy for a 28.5 year active duty career retiring as a Navy CAPTAIN. I have been back to Germany on my frigate (USS Aubrey Fitch (FFG-34)) with the STANAVFORLANT NATO squadron. A bit of history - Germany under Hitler recruited a massive number of German troops. These were mostly patriotic loyal Germans (probably conservative). As everyone knows the German Army, Navy, and Luftwaffe were all decimated by the end of the war (including Soviet prisoners of war that were killed). That culled out the post war population, consisting of a higher percentage of draft dodgers, conscientious objectors, and generally liberal remnants of the German population. It is no wonder that post war Germany became ultra liberal, anti-war, and the opposite of Hitler's strong conservative Army. The German military is a shadow of its former pre-WWII self. That will not change until enough generations have grown up to again spread the conservative to liberal percentages (i.e. Darwin's law). It is starting but no where near balanced yet. The American military bases in Germany bring 'protection' without the need to have Germany rise up to the task. So, sorry but demographics determine the population's spread. Germany will probably not rise up to the occasion until Russia invades. End of story.
Your description seems to speak to the question I came to comments to ask:
Even if Germany suddenly vastly increases funding for defense, and comes up with the manufacturing to arm X number of troops, do they still have enough institutional knowledge to make use of it? Would they be facing extremely painful lessons on the battlefield due to inexperience?
Russia will not have to invade, Germany will simply agree to realign their national interests with that of Russia and decay into a gasping sucking sound of its former self.
If you go to any area of Germany around a US military base, you can visit the "Texas Bar" or any number of other US cenrtic establishments. Germany is wedded to US protection without contributing enough to their NATO responsibilites, that simple and it won't change until Germany gets invaded by Russia.
Thank you Commander. I never tire of reading or saying the German commitment to European defense is a disgrace.
Maybe it's because they know they have nothing to fear from Russia? All they have to do is keep NATO out of Ukraine, but they can't. Sucks to be them.
hmmm. No mention of the Nordstream pipeline mysteriously blowing up. The recently completed Russian-German owned pipeline that Biden promised would be eliminated.
Not sure how Germany can pay for military hostilities against its natural economic partner (the one that provided it with low-cost energy and other natural resources for decades) when it has been de-industrialized and sabotaged by its supposed US ally.
the Kiel report shows most western militaries are not ready for a fight with Ru.
https://weapons.substack.com/p/a-disturbing-study-makes-it-clear
I blame the West; you can’t beat a country collectively over the head for almost 80yrs with World War II & the Holocaust & not expect them to be the same self-loathing cucks the rest of the West has become. The German Army of 1940 was THE finest fighting force the world has ever seen, crushing the French Army (then the largest in Europe) in six weeks & kicking England out of Europe four times: Dunkirk, Norway, Greece, & Dieppe (in 1942). They inflicted 3.5 million casualties on the Red Army in as many months & by Spring of 1942 had advance units in the town of Astrakhan on the Caspian Sea. That’s virtually the gateway to Asia.
Overextended? Yes. Fighting on too many fronts? Yes. But that’s another discussion. Just a gut feeling gleaned over many years of study & speaking with Veterans of both sides; the West was humiliated by German acumen in the Military Arts & determined to crush the Prussian spirit out of them once & for all. That’s most likely the reason they are so complacent/unsettled now with those things military in nature.
They’re scared of their own shadow anymore. An Austrian & a German friend (both Veterans) have told me point blank no one feels comfortable displaying patriotism anymore since they’ll be accused of being a “Nazi.”
It’s a culture thing. Pretty tough to get around that.
Yes. Combine that with nitwit Greenies in government and a union/labor culture so strong that it can determine policy and the recipe outcome is pretty obvious.
All of [Marxist] academia, everywhere, teaches that the U.S. has always been the war monger, not the Russians, not the Chinese.
But the effect of such indoctrination is different in Europe than in the U.S., because in Europe there is the physical proximity of the Russians, and few [Western] Europeans are going to fear the Russians because they've all been indoctrinated to think good-Russians bad-Americans.
The only Europeans who realize that view is bravo sierra are the Eastern Europeans, who for a half century had to live under the Russian Communist yoke.
They get it.
To be fair, the Russians haven't initiated conflict with Europe (outside the Black Sea area, which has been in dispute for a millennium), but the Europeans have made a couple significant incursions over the past 200-odd years (Napoleon and Hitler).
I understand and concur that with a global Marxist ideology, they were a threat to the entire western world, but if one were to add aggressive activities, they seem to have been defender more often than not.
You're right, but do not underestimate the Russian appetite for territory for purpose of "security".
When Averell Harriman met Stalin in Potsdam, July 1945, Harriman said "it must be a great sensation to be standing victorious here" and Stalin replied "Czar Alexander went to Paris".
Fair
"A maritime fight in the Pacific simply is not their fight."
This informs Germany's entire foreign and industrial policy at the moment as well. Investments have been made in China, 'und ve shall recoup zem!' Come hell or high water. So why provide any support to even allow another nation to pivot to that region, when one's interests are served by Beijing's interpretation of "stability" in the region?
German's eggs are parked in 2 baskets essentially:
1. Russian oil and gas imports
2. Chinese market and manufacturing for their big autos.
It can be said that Olaf Scholz is the proverbial Neville Chamberlain of Germany.
German foreign policy is of appeasement.
Nothing good is coming out of NATO and EU with the US funding bulk of the defense largesse while euro sipped their coffee and eat croissants as usual.
Some wake up calls needed badly at this point.
BK is spot on! As long as the US is providing the bulwark of defense for the middle of Europe, (Germany) the Germans will spend their budget on social welfare programs.
Germany won't step up until we stop the free ride. They are a fat tick on NATO.
Once again, Chamberlain was at least trying to buy time for a defense buildup. Germany wants cheap Russian gas so it's energy transition will "work".
That German frigate is one ugly ship.
Looks neat, clean & tidy, John. About what one might expect. Too amphibish looking for my taste. Wo ist das Rindfleisch? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baden-W%C3%BCrttemberg-class_frigate#/media/File:BADEN-WURTTEMBERG_00257_(cropped).jpg
Great post Sal. Germany needs to fix its Germany problem first. Here’s a good recent podcast with a 30 year-plus member of the Bundestag, detailing the fatherland’s existential crisis: https://megaphone.link/TGF1938047955
Apparently the German frigates are just a jobs program for ship builders. What's the point of building such a ship that can't defend itself in any modern threat environment? Nor can it apparently go on the offensive. WTF Germany?
Tbf to the Germans, a lot of Americans advocate us building similar ships. It is EXTREMELY difficult to get a "concerned taxpayer" to understand that grandpa's M2 or Oerlikon doesn’t cut it anymore; let alone they cost a lot more to make nowadays.
Seems the Poles would prefer to gain more local (EU) sway in NATO decisions, and not have the vicissitudes of American politics steering the organization...and Poland's no joke self-defense.
So I would think they would be heartily nudging Germany to step up and take realistic stake in NATO's "Eastern Flank."
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/polands-foreign-minister-on-defending-ukraine-and-its-path-to-nato-membership
(I tried not to do it Cdr...I really did, but it was like my fingers were typing on a Ouija board!)
Poland should invade Germany and sort it out. (only half joking)
Also only half-jokingly, with the current state of Germany, military and civilian, the only thing stopping the Poles from doing just that is a lack of desire and/or political will to do so.
I read that and thought "ruh roh...here we go!" :)
"The USA is not going to leave NATO, regardless of what some overly dramatic heavy breathers may say."
Eisenhower, 1951;
“If in 10 years, all American troops stationed in Europe for national defense purposes have not been returned to the United States, then this whole project [NATO] will have failed.”
Germany and the other non 2% deadbeat NATO members don't care. They know that even if they're evicted from the treaty the other countries will act as buffers.
Canada doesn't even care enough to protect its own economic interests in the arctic.
Ploughs and social programs have won the day over swords.
"Ploughs and social programs have won the day over swords."
The day, yes. Sadly, I don't think they have ever won the war
I think the only disagreement I have with you on this is the necessity of US involvement in the defense of Europe. I contend that US involvement may be desirable for political reasons but is not a necessity. Poland alone has about the same population as Ukraine and a much larger GDP. Add in the rest of Europe and it seems to me that NATO, even without the US, is more than a match for Russia. US involvement cannot take the place of Europe's lack of political will to expend the effort to defend itself.
And, frankly, the US does not, and will not for relevant future, have the resources to defend both East and West; a choice must be made. Sorry, folks, those duty assignments in Brussels, Stuttgart, etc. need to be moved West.
For some reason this reminded me of
"We are not about to send American boys 9 or 10 thousand miles away from home to do what Asian boys ought to be doing for themselves."
Just make it 3 or 5 thousand, and European boys
Non lethal armament in order to enable a non-provocative response? Is this kindergarten? A *warship* is afraid to provoke? What’s the opposite of full-bore?
And that tells me that Germany is a paper tiger at the moment.
Water cannons are firehoses; the USN has had this capability since the steam-powered fire pump. If memory serves, the old "Landing Party Manual," gave directions on the use of fire hoses on a crowd when loading civilians off a pier in an evacuation situation.
There is no reason a warship couldn't be bristling with weapons, and still have room for non-provocative weapons. Searchlights weigh nothing. Your water canons are already in the plans as the DC system.
see USS San Pablo (Sand Pebbles) used "Live Stem"
Thank you.
I couldn't cite specifics from three decades in the past, but I recall discussion of rigging fire hoses to repel boarders as part of the quals for topside watch (subs).
Allegedly, USS Pennsylvania (SSBN-735) had a repel boarders incident the right before the commissioning ceremony where some anti-Trident hippies got firehosed.
Which probably served to the better of those hippies, depending on how enthusiastic they were about not bathing (hygiene being "bourgeois" or whatnot).
Allegedly.
Bon Ami was Bougie?
Lots of water cannon fights going on between China, Taiwan, Philippines, and Japan, and they have a lot more pressure than fire hoses.
Surface ships as well (At first OOD In port board, CO told me I had to go there before the .50's, damn his weak heart)
Oh, I don't mind firehoses and searchlights per se, at all. I mind them at the expense of proper armaments.
This is true, Tom, but it's not part of the advertising! :)
And shotguns are rifles.
I'm so old I remember being proud of my German ancestry. Not anymore.
I felt the same way after meeting my German counterparts in NATO.
Germany is fucked. Germany suffers from social problems, massive immigration and a self abused notion of white guilt. They have had multiple generational struggles with their Nazi past and can’t and won’t rise above it.
Europe itself has squandered its future by throwing treasure and armaments at Ukraine that they can’t and won’t replace.
Europe is going to be consumed. By whom is the question?
Germany and France both dislike American leadership in Nato. A couple decades ago they tried forming a European army with each contributing some units. I haven't heard anything about it for a long time so maybe it didn't work out or was a victim of the peace dividend. Germany is rarely helpful with international issues. And France likes to pretend it's still important.
The French do a fair amount of work in Africa.
Well yeah, they like to maintain their not-an-empire there.
The Europeans will continue to take advantage of the U.S. as long as we allow it. Europeans in general, and Germans in particular, think Americans are foolish and naïve. They're not wrong.
Not just "foolish and naive" but "dangerous".
Have relatives in Belgium, all of whom were taught by their Marxist academia that the U.S. post WW2 was the sole threat to world peace, this despite half the continent of Europe behind a wall of barbed wire and guard towers.
“The USA is not going to leave NATO, regardless of what some overly dramatic heavy breathers may say.”
Just call us “garbage” Sal, PedoJoe does.
But why should Germany do a damn thing when you take the ultimate consequences of their inaction? It’s just sad when those called garbage by the Democratic Party will be the ones fighting and dying for Germany.
Good luck with that wishful thinking. I was born in Germany, emigrated too the US, became a naturalized citizen, joined the Navy for a 28.5 year active duty career retiring as a Navy CAPTAIN. I have been back to Germany on my frigate (USS Aubrey Fitch (FFG-34)) with the STANAVFORLANT NATO squadron. A bit of history - Germany under Hitler recruited a massive number of German troops. These were mostly patriotic loyal Germans (probably conservative). As everyone knows the German Army, Navy, and Luftwaffe were all decimated by the end of the war (including Soviet prisoners of war that were killed). That culled out the post war population, consisting of a higher percentage of draft dodgers, conscientious objectors, and generally liberal remnants of the German population. It is no wonder that post war Germany became ultra liberal, anti-war, and the opposite of Hitler's strong conservative Army. The German military is a shadow of its former pre-WWII self. That will not change until enough generations have grown up to again spread the conservative to liberal percentages (i.e. Darwin's law). It is starting but no where near balanced yet. The American military bases in Germany bring 'protection' without the need to have Germany rise up to the task. So, sorry but demographics determine the population's spread. Germany will probably not rise up to the occasion until Russia invades. End of story.
Your description seems to speak to the question I came to comments to ask:
Even if Germany suddenly vastly increases funding for defense, and comes up with the manufacturing to arm X number of troops, do they still have enough institutional knowledge to make use of it? Would they be facing extremely painful lessons on the battlefield due to inexperience?
Russia will not have to invade, Germany will simply agree to realign their national interests with that of Russia and decay into a gasping sucking sound of its former self.
All people are children of their experience and rarely see beyond that.
Almost everyone alive in Western Europe today grew up in a free and safe environment, not coincidentally courtesy of U.S. military protection.
And many if not most alive in Eastern Europe today grew up in an environment dictated by the Soviet Union.
Human nature doesn't worry about pleasant circumstances but most definitely remembers unpleasant circumstances.
So the Poles, Balts, Ukrainians et al are determined to keep the Soviets / Russians out.
But the Germans and French and Italians could not care less, because they have no memory of Soviet domination of all aspects of life.
It has to hurt to make an impression.
If you go to any area of Germany around a US military base, you can visit the "Texas Bar" or any number of other US cenrtic establishments. Germany is wedded to US protection without contributing enough to their NATO responsibilites, that simple and it won't change until Germany gets invaded by Russia.