Not our war. Don't see anything in it in our national interest. If the war could end next week then I don't really care who the winner is as long as the winner is benevolent in the aftermath. End the madness.
"training of Ukrainian troops" what Ukrainian troops? At the rate Ukraine is sacrificing its population, there won't be enough military aged males to train.
NATO stands for North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Last time I looked at a map Ukraine is nowhere near the Atlantic so why are we pouring billions in weapons nto that country? And if those billions are not enough what then? Are we willing to pay any price and bear any burden to keep the Russians out of Odessa? I think not. Time to negotiate in good faith and recognize Russia's legitimate concerns before they conclude that they will have to retake all their former republics.
Please investigate whether Ukraine, giving up its nuclear weapons for security was really what it was said to be. I am very skeptical that Russia in reality would have turned over its nuclear weapons in Ukraine to the control of the Ukrainian government. (just as we do not turn over our nuclear weapons in Europe to control of the countries in which they are situated.) I suspect they were always under Russian control. Your comment?
Certainly, Ukraine should not join NATO while the conflict is going on. Not even Biden is stupid enough to agree to this. Even after the conflict Ukraine should not join NATO, if Russia still controls any part of Ukrainian territory, since that will almost guarantee a future war.
Well, indeed we are spending $billions in support of Ukraine, and just consider that $$$ being spent in defense of Russia's next target nation, and surely more after that until Putin has had his fill. He has a long way to go to reestablish his empire dreams; the Europeans know that, Pres Biden knows that, and most Sovietologists swear by that. Any kind of 'settling matters with Russia' in dialogue is a pipedream. It is Putin, not Russia, whose manifest destiny is being sought. Thoughts to the contrary are Chamberlain-ian in the 10th degree.
Russia has been, at heart, a paranoid nation back to at least the time of Ivan the Terrible. Poking a paranoid bear usually leads to really bad results. Urging a country directly on the Russian border is a big poke. My guess is that he reason Putin didn’t attack Poland when it became part of NATO is that he didn’t feel strong enough at that time. Whatever the reason, he didn’t. Everyone in DC that can read should understand that if Ukrainian were to join NATO at this point, we would instantly be involved in a continent-wide war. That was a big part of why Russian attacked Georgia. Not a good plan. The Georgians I talked to a few years ago understand that problem, even if Zelensky and Biden don’t.
The Poles and Ukrainians are tired of getting overrun by Germans or Russians every hundred years or so.
Many -- especially in Poland -- saw the chance for a more permanent nation with the collapse of the USSR. In Ukraine, because of geography, IMO, things took a bit longer to develop.
Even so, the point remains. Poles and Ukrainians want to create their own nation as they see fit. They are tired of outside meddlers. If the US government can respond with competent statecraft, I'd say we could pull more ground forces out of Europe, and focus on naval power projection in the Pacific west of Wake.
First reducing Russia to a second rate conventional military power. Or maybe it merely exposed Russia as a second rate conventional power. It will take decades and a lot of money to recover from this misadventure.
Second Poland might become the defacto conventional military power in Eastern Europe if not the continent.
East or West. Russian was pushing the concept in the Cold War that eastern Europe was Slavic and therefore belonged to Russia, then the Warsaw Pact. Problems there.
Actually, look to where they turn religiously. To the Orthodox Church or to Rome. And, there you see, at least, how Poland and the Balts line up. East Germany as well.
Ukraine is right in the middle. I only need to point to the Ukrainian Catholic Church. There one in my home state, in Cody, Wyoming.
Of course you could also plot spending against 'distance from Russia'.
Or plot spending against 'years since Russian conflict'.
Not our war. Don't see anything in it in our national interest. If the war could end next week then I don't really care who the winner is as long as the winner is benevolent in the aftermath. End the madness.
I feel the current Western leadership is not capable of the subtleties you suggest. At this point any thinking would be more thinking.
"training of Ukrainian troops" what Ukrainian troops? At the rate Ukraine is sacrificing its population, there won't be enough military aged males to train.
NATO stands for North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Last time I looked at a map Ukraine is nowhere near the Atlantic so why are we pouring billions in weapons nto that country? And if those billions are not enough what then? Are we willing to pay any price and bear any burden to keep the Russians out of Odessa? I think not. Time to negotiate in good faith and recognize Russia's legitimate concerns before they conclude that they will have to retake all their former republics.
Please investigate whether Ukraine, giving up its nuclear weapons for security was really what it was said to be. I am very skeptical that Russia in reality would have turned over its nuclear weapons in Ukraine to the control of the Ukrainian government. (just as we do not turn over our nuclear weapons in Europe to control of the countries in which they are situated.) I suspect they were always under Russian control. Your comment?
Great article Sal. Had no prior knowledge of the 2008 events. Very critical events at that.
Your NATO map needs some updating.
Certainly, Ukraine should not join NATO while the conflict is going on. Not even Biden is stupid enough to agree to this. Even after the conflict Ukraine should not join NATO, if Russia still controls any part of Ukrainian territory, since that will almost guarantee a future war.
Shorter solution. Disband NATO. It has outlived any plausible usefulness.
Well, indeed we are spending $billions in support of Ukraine, and just consider that $$$ being spent in defense of Russia's next target nation, and surely more after that until Putin has had his fill. He has a long way to go to reestablish his empire dreams; the Europeans know that, Pres Biden knows that, and most Sovietologists swear by that. Any kind of 'settling matters with Russia' in dialogue is a pipedream. It is Putin, not Russia, whose manifest destiny is being sought. Thoughts to the contrary are Chamberlain-ian in the 10th degree.
Russia has been, at heart, a paranoid nation back to at least the time of Ivan the Terrible. Poking a paranoid bear usually leads to really bad results. Urging a country directly on the Russian border is a big poke. My guess is that he reason Putin didn’t attack Poland when it became part of NATO is that he didn’t feel strong enough at that time. Whatever the reason, he didn’t. Everyone in DC that can read should understand that if Ukrainian were to join NATO at this point, we would instantly be involved in a continent-wide war. That was a big part of why Russian attacked Georgia. Not a good plan. The Georgians I talked to a few years ago understand that problem, even if Zelensky and Biden don’t.
How many times must I repeat this?
The Poles and Ukrainians are tired of getting overrun by Germans or Russians every hundred years or so.
Many -- especially in Poland -- saw the chance for a more permanent nation with the collapse of the USSR. In Ukraine, because of geography, IMO, things took a bit longer to develop.
Even so, the point remains. Poles and Ukrainians want to create their own nation as they see fit. They are tired of outside meddlers. If the US government can respond with competent statecraft, I'd say we could pull more ground forces out of Europe, and focus on naval power projection in the Pacific west of Wake.
Change my mind.
Two things this war has accomplished.
First reducing Russia to a second rate conventional military power. Or maybe it merely exposed Russia as a second rate conventional power. It will take decades and a lot of money to recover from this misadventure.
Second Poland might become the defacto conventional military power in Eastern Europe if not the continent.
East or West. Russian was pushing the concept in the Cold War that eastern Europe was Slavic and therefore belonged to Russia, then the Warsaw Pact. Problems there.
Actually, look to where they turn religiously. To the Orthodox Church or to Rome. And, there you see, at least, how Poland and the Balts line up. East Germany as well.
Ukraine is right in the middle. I only need to point to the Ukrainian Catholic Church. There one in my home state, in Cody, Wyoming.
Intresting article--also informative. I wonder where China falls on that chart?
Wonder how things would have turned out if the Smart People included Russia as a future NATO member in 2008?