Don't laugh, but it'd be interesting to homeport a couple of LCS there with predominantly Pinoy crews. They have the maintenance facilities, it'd be a good recruiting tool, (Do we still have that agreement?) and sea-shore rotation might be less of an issue for those crews. Or perhaps a jointly manned ship like the USS Robin.
There's lots of potential benefits here for all parties involved.
Since we won't give it to ourselves, let them turn some Ghost fleet FSVs into manned patrol boats. Good fire monitors to fight back with. Speed, range, shallow draft.
Those Spearhead EPF's that are inactive would be very suitable for them, particularly since they're an archipelago nation, having many small craft is key. From moving troops & vehicles, to responding to disaster relief those EPF's are handy, not sure why USN leadership isn't able to think and utilize them better.
I’d give them a tiny defense upgrade and get them back to work. Rws-6 mounts replacing the m-2s, sewip lite, nulka launchers, rps-42 radar. I might even wonder if they could be refit to flt II spec w/o breaking the bank.
The recruiting agreement was abolished 33 years ago (1991). It's really a shame, so many motivated, qualified people. If they could still enlist directly from the Philippines, every branch of service would be turning away qualified recruits. To join any of our services today, non-citizens must be living permanently and legally in the United States, and also have permission to work in the United States (Form I-551, "Green Card").
We might be in the same age cohort. When I first enlisted (1970, dinosaurs still roamed the earth) I mess cooked (an excellent billet for a non-rate) with a Filipino Steward who had a degree in Mechanical Engineering. He was really squared away. I learned a lot from him. During my first tour, after restrictions on Filipinos were removed, he became an AD. The reason given for restricting Filipinos to Stewards and Ships Servicemen was, as non-citizens, they might be a security risk. It always seemed to me that the biggest security risk on a Navy ship would be a Steward poisoning the entire wardroom. Restricting the rates open to Filipinos was just straight-up racism, in my opinion. Toward the end of my career, I was privileged to serve with the Hukbong Kawal Pandagat ng Pilipinas (Philippine Marine Corps). Those men were HARDCORE. My job was to help them master the intricacies of our Federal Supply Schedule.
I have three brothers-in-law who served in the Navy. Bert was a Steward who converted to MS. He served in Vietnam and retired a Chief at 26 years. I sponsored Sonny and Ed and helped them immigrate. Both wanted to join the Navy. Sonny had a degree in mechanical engineering and Ed had a degree in electrical engineering. They tried to enlist in San Diego but the recruiter told them they had their quota of green card Filipinos and send them away. They called me and I told them to go to another recruiting office and tell them they were "Hispanic", which was kind of accurate being that the Philippines was a Spanish colony for 400 years. Both enlisted. Sonny spent 4 years as BT and got out as a BT3. Can't fault him there. Ed became a GSEC(SW) and later a CWO4 with a SWO qual. He retired at 31 years and never opted for shore duty. He does wonderful things for Navy ships in Singapore now. I couldn't be prouder of my B-i-L's.
My favorite part is "31 years and never opted for shore duty." I'm just a one term E5 myself, but the part I'm most proud of is that I spent every day after A school on a ship.
That saying about where sailors and their ships belong is true.
I was single the first 10 years of my 26. Sea duty was where the promotions were. The fun too. Spent 19½ on sea duty, 3 on neutral duty riding ships and the rest on shore duty. Got enticed to shore duty to run an "A" school. Couldn't pass it up.
When I showed up for mine, the 2nd Class running the place explained, ""The Navy paid some civilian contractors millions to deliver a fancy, Disney-fied, computer-aided school, which is about three years behind schedule. All the instructor billets to the old school had been two-year ones, and no new ones were funded. The curriculum is buried in a disused file cabinet in a basement with broken stairs behind a locked door with a sign on it reading, 'Beware of wild boar,' so all I have are a couple PowerPoint decks."
Went to my ship with no rate-related training, basically, then got lucky when my admin skills were recognized and I spent nearly four years picking up collateral duties that would have been OS, IS, QM, HM, YN, PS or a PAO's job on a bigger ship like a frigate.
Now I say on my resume the "A" means you can consider it an associates degree. Later, once I've been hired and established my value, I tell the boss that story and remind them the letter was in quotation marks.
My father was a naval officer in command of a unit at Cubi when the volcano blew. His Filipina wife and the entire “village” of sum 8 kids and the Auntie along with dogs and a few handhelds were evacuated to Guam where they were processed on to CONUS while my dad tried to figure out what was critical for the Navy and what wasn’t and what was to be left behind. He stayed to close the base for a few months. He likely would have retired from the Navy and remained in the Philippines if the base wasn’t subjected to closure. I also recall they had quite an issue with Islamic terrorism against Americans at Subic and Cubi during that time.
My first WestPac on Abraham Lincoln we helped to evacuate a fair number of people. We could get quite a few people and pets in the hanger bay for a 2-day trip
Things are changing. In Kindergarten just after the closure of those bases, a classmate brought in pictures of life after a typhoon for show and tell. In the suburban town we moved to right before I was in high school, a park was named after an Army Officer who died in a helicopter crash in the Philippines in 2002. I’ve got a feeling the existing relationships may matter more than you’d think.
The re-armament of the Philippines is heavily sourced from South Korea. I think we may be seeing the formation of a tacit alliance here.
The mate and I spent a month in the Philippines last year and came away with a very favorable impression. My father and brother-in-law had both spent time there during the Vietnam Unpleasantness and had always mentioned good things about the country and the people. Our observations:
1. Your average Filipino likes Americans and once they find out you are from the U.S. they can't do enough for you.
2. Every single Filipino we spoke to wanted Americans to "come back." The Chinese problem weighs on their minds and they see America as a bulwark.
3. Over dinner one night I had a conversation with a retired Filipino captain who was originally from Mindinao. Relatives and friends have told him that the insurgency is waining because the local folk have started practicing the "Three S" rule when it comes to troublemakers: shoot, shovel, shut up. Apparently their Rangers have been holding drumhead courts and summary executions for insurgents caught demanding food and money from villagers.
4. Man, there are a lot of American ex-pats living there, mostly retired military.
As CDR Salamander notes, all these are positive signs. We wish them well.
First time I was there was in 1962, the last was in 1970. Olongapo; the catapult in the Cubi O-club; Grande Island; even a trip to Zamboanga in '70. Bus trip from Clark to Olongapo was subject to an occasional bandit holdup.
if by manageable Insurgency, you mean heavy US and AU support during Marawi, sure. Some of the bombs dropped dated back to potentially Korean War era inventory and may not have detonated at all, not that it could be told after what the city and outskirts looked like. That's why emergency deliveries of slick 82s and 84s were made despite Duterte's professed love of Mainland China. It's ironic that despite eight years of solid GWOT work via OEF-P, Marawi happened anyway.
As far as all eyes on 2nd Thomas Shoal (LST land), it's also ironic that PRC is able to establish 100 percent on-station dominance at Scarborough, which is a heck of a lot closer to the Luzon mainland (and by extension, more within operating range of RP forces) than LST land, which is only closer to Palawan where there are few established Maritime bases.
Not to rain on Balikatan '24, it's the first time the PN has fired their own anti ship missiles and the PAF conducting Maritime strike using US supplied Mavericks. But the reality is PRC will continue to dominate the area given their wide breadth and depth of assets and nearby operating bases. They're never going to let the RP reinforce the LST. The minute they get the idea that there's a shipment inbound of construction material, water cannons are the least of the PCG's problems at that point. When the 6 of WESCOM got injured in the last water cannon attack, I honestly wondered if the US would consider that crossing the line and activate the Defense Pact. Buy apparently even a GOFO getting injured wasn't the bright line.
> It's ironic that despite eight years of solid GWOT work via OEF-P, Marawi happened anyway.
I'd have said "to be expected" instead of "ironic." From our experience in Afghanistan and Iraq to our ally Israel's experience on their borders to our enemy Russia's experience in Chechnya and Afghanistan, the most common outcome of COIN warfare--no matter how solidly executed--is that military operations that achieve tactical success against a specific insurgent group also create new and worse insurgent groups with even more local support.
I would love to be wrong, and welcome examples of a military superior capability defeating a local insurgent group that *isn't* followed within five years by a new or renewed insurgency. In the 21st century, I'd say that *maybe* some of our operations against cartels kinda count, but can anyone think of anything else?
But aside from that one thing, I liked the rest of your comment. Great thoughts about Balikatan, and I agree with you that PLAN is dominating in the area.
No, the US hasn't won a serious war since 1945. Why haven't we won a serious major war? Well, it could have something to do with our managing to kill fewer of the people fighting us in 20 years of warfare than we killed in the average month the last time we won a major war and our military leadership convincing themselves that spending trillions of American dollars and tens of thousands of American lives losing war after war makes them some sort of morally superior geniuses.
Solid suggestion, and I have to admit I don't know much about that one. If there's a book about that war I should read, I am almost done with Abigail Shrier's latest.
But that's still maybe two wins for the larger occupying power, and the lose column is three ... just counting Afghanistan.
The Malayan conflict was a textbook for those of us studying counter insurgency. Going further back, the US did a pretty good job in the Philippines around the turn of the century, and the UK with the Mau Mau movement in Africa.
Holy crap, is that the same Craig Whitlock who wrote _The Aghanistan Papers_ a couple years back? That was a great book and really shaped my thinking about Afghanistan. Maybe Sal could get him back on Midrats for this book, too.
Did the Naval Intelligence chief, Vice Admiral Ted N. Branch, get a free pass? That's some "A Few Good Men" level bullshit. I guess I'll find out on June 9, 2024.
Well, *A Few Good Men* is some high level bullshit. Really top shelf.
Even knowing how deeply incorrect about the military that movie is, I still enjoy it every time. It's Jack and Tom's best work, IMO.
Aaron Sorkin recently directed a film that's deeply incorrect about Hollywood that's also Nicole Kidman and Javier Bardem's best work. *Being The Ricardos.*
Sorkin may have politics as crazy as Mel Gibson, but the man knows story structure as well as Mel Gibson.
Anyway, I'm also looking forward to learning more about Adm Branch. I used to tell civilians that the Director of Naval Intelligence had lost his security clearance while keeping his job, and they 100% thought I was joking.
I lived there for more than a year, 2016-8. My wife is a Filipina. When I was there, I did a survey of constraints to agricultural exports for a potential USAID project. I even met Duterte when I was there and asked him to "lighten up on my people" (by which I meant the USA). He replied "I like the American people, but not their government." I read the papers (Inquirer, Bulletin, Times, Star) almost every day when I was there (thank you Starbucks).
It's true that the USA has neglected the Philippines since Mt. Pinatubo / the base evictions / end of the the Cold War. Think of the status of the country as a former US territory, and the origin country of a large successful ethnic minority in the USA. USAID programs are what they are - lecturing government officials on best practices, building civil society organizations. Even investment in those is low. The Japanese build things like roads and transit systems.
What I saw there was a true oligarchy, where markets are rigged for the benefit of what one CIA officer who was there in the 1960s called "an exceptionally greedy oligarchy." (ref My Father the Spy, John Richardson). Everywhere I looked I saw rigged markets. For example, what other country has a beer monopoly (San Miguel)? When a consortium attempted to start a third telcom in the 10s, they were stymied by regulators because of the participation of an Australian telcom, Telstra. I've read that some of these constraints on foreign investment have been removed. But I doubt the entrenched interests will give up early.
The Sys, Gokongweis, Tans, and Ayalas etc rule. There's a shocking amount of impunity for tax evasion by the rich - lists are published in the newspapers but nothing happens. The infrastructure sucks because of mis-investment and corruption.
The oligarchs don't want to grow the pie, they want to keep the pie to themselves. If Marcos can change that, good for him.
I fear they are highly susceptible to a Chinese soft coup - one means would be through the insane presidential election system. Presidential elections are multi-candidate, with one round and no run-off which means that a candidate can win a six year term with a low plurality even among straw candidates. They pay voters in the Philippines - I saw the lines after the 2016 election.
Yes, this is all so true. What a shame that such an admirable populace is held in thrall by a cabal of oligarchs. Thank goodness we don't tolerate that type of situation here in the U.S.
It's an issue for resilience against China. Much of the Filipino population might look around, note the lack of infrastructure caused by corruption and lack of investment, the poor wages and the lack of any equality and ask, and Chinese rule would be worse how?
I've been going to PI since the 80s and regularly since 2009. The country has developed significantly in that time and I am always impressed with how kind and friendly every one seems to be. My job was providing support for certain USG operations and my interactions with Philippine military impressed me with their discipline and toughness.
Good thing Sal don't take urinalysis test no more, he'd pop for copium.
Anyway recently realized that the "Mother Country" has been the US' biggest frenemy for a very long time. The Founding Fathers were right to break away, UK is circling the drain and will drag the US with them.
I've been working on electric markets and new generation there for the last couple of years.
There are continued tussles amongst the oligarchs over which one gets to build new electric plants and what fuels they will import. Their Secretary of Energy seems in the pocket of the guys who want to import liquified natural gas (LNG), one of the most expensive fuels. They intend to shift to wind and solar - where will that gear come from? Didn't they learn anything from Germany or Califorina?
The utility in Manila just contracted for a wholesale electric supply contract at Californian prices - 12.5 cents a kWhr. Retail prices are twice that or more. The price of electricity is one major factor keeping the country from capturing the industries fleeing China.
The country does have its problems but there is great hope there too.
Good article. I lived in northern Luzon in the early 80s and then was stationed at Clark for my first USAF tour. I picked up a souvenir then and there and we're celebrating our 39th wedding anniversary today. We're very active in our state's Filipino community and my wife is on the board of our local Asia/Filipino Chamber of Commerce, looking for ways to promote more and better business building between our two countries. I've seen the growth of the tech sector in Cebu and the amazing triumph which is the Clark Free Economic Zone. I watch "walking tours" on YouTube of the places I used to live in and am astounded at both the economic growth and the sometimes boneheaded infrastructure decisions that are made (raising roads so they don't flood, but it now channels floodwaters straight into shops and homes!). I love the Philippines and the Filipino people, and look forward to seeing many more success stories come out of my second homeland. Mabuhay!
Going to be Filipino snow birds here in another year, escaping the Chicago winters to live at the wife's home just off the beach. It's good to know that things are improving. You can see it each year, but there is still a long way to go. Certainly on the corruption side, even down to the lowest levels of government. Amazing how things move faster/better with a little under the table payment even for the most simple of things.
As I said before, giv'em a decommissioned LCS to replace that rusty LST at 2d Thomas Shoal.
- aux generator
- a working galley
- better water storage
- maybe a working toilet
- dry bunks
Don't laugh, but it'd be interesting to homeport a couple of LCS there with predominantly Pinoy crews. They have the maintenance facilities, it'd be a good recruiting tool, (Do we still have that agreement?) and sea-shore rotation might be less of an issue for those crews. Or perhaps a jointly manned ship like the USS Robin.
There's lots of potential benefits here for all parties involved.
Since we won't give it to ourselves, let them turn some Ghost fleet FSVs into manned patrol boats. Good fire monitors to fight back with. Speed, range, shallow draft.
Those Spearhead EPF's that are inactive would be very suitable for them, particularly since they're an archipelago nation, having many small craft is key. From moving troops & vehicles, to responding to disaster relief those EPF's are handy, not sure why USN leadership isn't able to think and utilize them better.
EPFs are also quite fragile. The aluminum hull requires extensive fenders that may not be available in many small harbors.
Just the kind of attribute you need in a rode hard, rarely put up, but on those rare occasions put up wet, connector...
I’d give them a tiny defense upgrade and get them back to work. Rws-6 mounts replacing the m-2s, sewip lite, nulka launchers, rps-42 radar. I might even wonder if they could be refit to flt II spec w/o breaking the bank.
The recruiting agreement was abolished 33 years ago (1991). It's really a shame, so many motivated, qualified people. If they could still enlist directly from the Philippines, every branch of service would be turning away qualified recruits. To join any of our services today, non-citizens must be living permanently and legally in the United States, and also have permission to work in the United States (Form I-551, "Green Card").
Thank you. The passage of time has dimmed my already not bright memory.
We might be in the same age cohort. When I first enlisted (1970, dinosaurs still roamed the earth) I mess cooked (an excellent billet for a non-rate) with a Filipino Steward who had a degree in Mechanical Engineering. He was really squared away. I learned a lot from him. During my first tour, after restrictions on Filipinos were removed, he became an AD. The reason given for restricting Filipinos to Stewards and Ships Servicemen was, as non-citizens, they might be a security risk. It always seemed to me that the biggest security risk on a Navy ship would be a Steward poisoning the entire wardroom. Restricting the rates open to Filipinos was just straight-up racism, in my opinion. Toward the end of my career, I was privileged to serve with the Hukbong Kawal Pandagat ng Pilipinas (Philippine Marine Corps). Those men were HARDCORE. My job was to help them master the intricacies of our Federal Supply Schedule.
I have three brothers-in-law who served in the Navy. Bert was a Steward who converted to MS. He served in Vietnam and retired a Chief at 26 years. I sponsored Sonny and Ed and helped them immigrate. Both wanted to join the Navy. Sonny had a degree in mechanical engineering and Ed had a degree in electrical engineering. They tried to enlist in San Diego but the recruiter told them they had their quota of green card Filipinos and send them away. They called me and I told them to go to another recruiting office and tell them they were "Hispanic", which was kind of accurate being that the Philippines was a Spanish colony for 400 years. Both enlisted. Sonny spent 4 years as BT and got out as a BT3. Can't fault him there. Ed became a GSEC(SW) and later a CWO4 with a SWO qual. He retired at 31 years and never opted for shore duty. He does wonderful things for Navy ships in Singapore now. I couldn't be prouder of my B-i-L's.
Impressive family. BZ to all.
My favorite part is "31 years and never opted for shore duty." I'm just a one term E5 myself, but the part I'm most proud of is that I spent every day after A school on a ship.
That saying about where sailors and their ships belong is true.
I was single the first 10 years of my 26. Sea duty was where the promotions were. The fun too. Spent 19½ on sea duty, 3 on neutral duty riding ships and the rest on shore duty. Got enticed to shore duty to run an "A" school. Couldn't pass it up.
I've heard "A" schools are nice.
When I showed up for mine, the 2nd Class running the place explained, ""The Navy paid some civilian contractors millions to deliver a fancy, Disney-fied, computer-aided school, which is about three years behind schedule. All the instructor billets to the old school had been two-year ones, and no new ones were funded. The curriculum is buried in a disused file cabinet in a basement with broken stairs behind a locked door with a sign on it reading, 'Beware of wild boar,' so all I have are a couple PowerPoint decks."
Went to my ship with no rate-related training, basically, then got lucky when my admin skills were recognized and I spent nearly four years picking up collateral duties that would have been OS, IS, QM, HM, YN, PS or a PAO's job on a bigger ship like a frigate.
Now I say on my resume the "A" means you can consider it an associates degree. Later, once I've been hired and established my value, I tell the boss that story and remind them the letter was in quotation marks.
You want a flat bottom. We could easily build a custom ocean going barge with exactly what they need to operate as a sea base. An extra cheap ESB.
My father was a naval officer in command of a unit at Cubi when the volcano blew. His Filipina wife and the entire “village” of sum 8 kids and the Auntie along with dogs and a few handhelds were evacuated to Guam where they were processed on to CONUS while my dad tried to figure out what was critical for the Navy and what wasn’t and what was to be left behind. He stayed to close the base for a few months. He likely would have retired from the Navy and remained in the Philippines if the base wasn’t subjected to closure. I also recall they had quite an issue with Islamic terrorism against Americans at Subic and Cubi during that time.
My first WestPac on Abraham Lincoln we helped to evacuate a fair number of people. We could get quite a few people and pets in the hanger bay for a 2-day trip
Things are changing. In Kindergarten just after the closure of those bases, a classmate brought in pictures of life after a typhoon for show and tell. In the suburban town we moved to right before I was in high school, a park was named after an Army Officer who died in a helicopter crash in the Philippines in 2002. I’ve got a feeling the existing relationships may matter more than you’d think.
The re-armament of the Philippines is heavily sourced from South Korea. I think we may be seeing the formation of a tacit alliance here.
Here is the dowry: https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/philippines-says-hd-hyundai-s-partnership-at-subic-will-launch-shipbuilding
Back when the Naval base at Subic Bay was a going concern, SRF was manned by talented people. They did some great work for the Navy.
The mate and I spent a month in the Philippines last year and came away with a very favorable impression. My father and brother-in-law had both spent time there during the Vietnam Unpleasantness and had always mentioned good things about the country and the people. Our observations:
1. Your average Filipino likes Americans and once they find out you are from the U.S. they can't do enough for you.
2. Every single Filipino we spoke to wanted Americans to "come back." The Chinese problem weighs on their minds and they see America as a bulwark.
3. Over dinner one night I had a conversation with a retired Filipino captain who was originally from Mindinao. Relatives and friends have told him that the insurgency is waining because the local folk have started practicing the "Three S" rule when it comes to troublemakers: shoot, shovel, shut up. Apparently their Rangers have been holding drumhead courts and summary executions for insurgents caught demanding food and money from villagers.
4. Man, there are a lot of American ex-pats living there, mostly retired military.
As CDR Salamander notes, all these are positive signs. We wish them well.
First time I was there was in 1962, the last was in 1970. Olongapo; the catapult in the Cubi O-club; Grande Island; even a trip to Zamboanga in '70. Bus trip from Clark to Olongapo was subject to an occasional bandit holdup.
Good times.
mabuhay!
if by manageable Insurgency, you mean heavy US and AU support during Marawi, sure. Some of the bombs dropped dated back to potentially Korean War era inventory and may not have detonated at all, not that it could be told after what the city and outskirts looked like. That's why emergency deliveries of slick 82s and 84s were made despite Duterte's professed love of Mainland China. It's ironic that despite eight years of solid GWOT work via OEF-P, Marawi happened anyway.
As far as all eyes on 2nd Thomas Shoal (LST land), it's also ironic that PRC is able to establish 100 percent on-station dominance at Scarborough, which is a heck of a lot closer to the Luzon mainland (and by extension, more within operating range of RP forces) than LST land, which is only closer to Palawan where there are few established Maritime bases.
Not to rain on Balikatan '24, it's the first time the PN has fired their own anti ship missiles and the PAF conducting Maritime strike using US supplied Mavericks. But the reality is PRC will continue to dominate the area given their wide breadth and depth of assets and nearby operating bases. They're never going to let the RP reinforce the LST. The minute they get the idea that there's a shipment inbound of construction material, water cannons are the least of the PCG's problems at that point. When the 6 of WESCOM got injured in the last water cannon attack, I honestly wondered if the US would consider that crossing the line and activate the Defense Pact. Buy apparently even a GOFO getting injured wasn't the bright line.
> It's ironic that despite eight years of solid GWOT work via OEF-P, Marawi happened anyway.
I'd have said "to be expected" instead of "ironic." From our experience in Afghanistan and Iraq to our ally Israel's experience on their borders to our enemy Russia's experience in Chechnya and Afghanistan, the most common outcome of COIN warfare--no matter how solidly executed--is that military operations that achieve tactical success against a specific insurgent group also create new and worse insurgent groups with even more local support.
I would love to be wrong, and welcome examples of a military superior capability defeating a local insurgent group that *isn't* followed within five years by a new or renewed insurgency. In the 21st century, I'd say that *maybe* some of our operations against cartels kinda count, but can anyone think of anything else?
But aside from that one thing, I liked the rest of your comment. Great thoughts about Balikatan, and I agree with you that PLAN is dominating in the area.
Heard from the Tamil Tigers recently?
Didn't they go team up with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front on all those videos under OnlyFans #MILF section?
But seriously, I didn't think Sri Lanka counted as "more capable, better equipped, modernized army" in the US, British, Soviets or Israelis class.
No, the US hasn't won a serious war since 1945. Why haven't we won a serious major war? Well, it could have something to do with our managing to kill fewer of the people fighting us in 20 years of warfare than we killed in the average month the last time we won a major war and our military leadership convincing themselves that spending trillions of American dollars and tens of thousands of American lives losing war after war makes them some sort of morally superior geniuses.
Well I agree with this comment in it's entirety.
Especially with the part about military leadership ignoring failure. Plenty of GOFOs in the blob
Malaya/Brits.
Solid suggestion, and I have to admit I don't know much about that one. If there's a book about that war I should read, I am almost done with Abigail Shrier's latest.
But that's still maybe two wins for the larger occupying power, and the lose column is three ... just counting Afghanistan.
The Malayan conflict was a textbook for those of us studying counter insurgency. Going further back, the US did a pretty good job in the Philippines around the turn of the century, and the UK with the Mau Mau movement in Africa.
I sense an army uniform change coming to support their shift to fighting in Indo Pacific jungles in 3...2...1...
...and much to the relief of members, the Spandex will pretty much cover a size 52 waist. Did I say "pretty"? Sorry.
Anyone interested in Fat Leonard?. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/13/books/review/fat-leonard-craig-whitlock.html?unlocked_article_code=1.sE0.3CJg.Nj-1Ppdw6ySP&smid=url-share
If this link is not free, drop a note below an I'll try and fix it.
Holy crap, is that the same Craig Whitlock who wrote _The Aghanistan Papers_ a couple years back? That was a great book and really shaped my thinking about Afghanistan. Maybe Sal could get him back on Midrats for this book, too.
Well, you'll have to wait until June 9th, as that is when we're having him on!
So, I pulled a teaser. Stay tuned.
Did the Naval Intelligence chief, Vice Admiral Ted N. Branch, get a free pass? That's some "A Few Good Men" level bullshit. I guess I'll find out on June 9, 2024.
Like guessing final jeopardy before the clue is revealed.
Well, *A Few Good Men* is some high level bullshit. Really top shelf.
Even knowing how deeply incorrect about the military that movie is, I still enjoy it every time. It's Jack and Tom's best work, IMO.
Aaron Sorkin recently directed a film that's deeply incorrect about Hollywood that's also Nicole Kidman and Javier Bardem's best work. *Being The Ricardos.*
Sorkin may have politics as crazy as Mel Gibson, but the man knows story structure as well as Mel Gibson.
Anyway, I'm also looking forward to learning more about Adm Branch. I used to tell civilians that the Director of Naval Intelligence had lost his security clearance while keeping his job, and they 100% thought I was joking.
I lived there for more than a year, 2016-8. My wife is a Filipina. When I was there, I did a survey of constraints to agricultural exports for a potential USAID project. I even met Duterte when I was there and asked him to "lighten up on my people" (by which I meant the USA). He replied "I like the American people, but not their government." I read the papers (Inquirer, Bulletin, Times, Star) almost every day when I was there (thank you Starbucks).
It's true that the USA has neglected the Philippines since Mt. Pinatubo / the base evictions / end of the the Cold War. Think of the status of the country as a former US territory, and the origin country of a large successful ethnic minority in the USA. USAID programs are what they are - lecturing government officials on best practices, building civil society organizations. Even investment in those is low. The Japanese build things like roads and transit systems.
What I saw there was a true oligarchy, where markets are rigged for the benefit of what one CIA officer who was there in the 1960s called "an exceptionally greedy oligarchy." (ref My Father the Spy, John Richardson). Everywhere I looked I saw rigged markets. For example, what other country has a beer monopoly (San Miguel)? When a consortium attempted to start a third telcom in the 10s, they were stymied by regulators because of the participation of an Australian telcom, Telstra. I've read that some of these constraints on foreign investment have been removed. But I doubt the entrenched interests will give up early.
The Sys, Gokongweis, Tans, and Ayalas etc rule. There's a shocking amount of impunity for tax evasion by the rich - lists are published in the newspapers but nothing happens. The infrastructure sucks because of mis-investment and corruption.
The country exports its best and brightest because the labor market is similarly rigged for low wages. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/30/business/philippine-economy-colonial-legacy.html
The oligarchs don't want to grow the pie, they want to keep the pie to themselves. If Marcos can change that, good for him.
I fear they are highly susceptible to a Chinese soft coup - one means would be through the insane presidential election system. Presidential elections are multi-candidate, with one round and no run-off which means that a candidate can win a six year term with a low plurality even among straw candidates. They pay voters in the Philippines - I saw the lines after the 2016 election.
Yes, this is all so true. What a shame that such an admirable populace is held in thrall by a cabal of oligarchs. Thank goodness we don't tolerate that type of situation here in the U.S.
It's an issue for resilience against China. Much of the Filipino population might look around, note the lack of infrastructure caused by corruption and lack of investment, the poor wages and the lack of any equality and ask, and Chinese rule would be worse how?
As long as the next fleet that gets sunk in Manila Bay ain't ours, more work with the Philippines is very desirable.
I've been going to PI since the 80s and regularly since 2009. The country has developed significantly in that time and I am always impressed with how kind and friendly every one seems to be. My job was providing support for certain USG operations and my interactions with Philippine military impressed me with their discipline and toughness.
Good thing Sal don't take urinalysis test no more, he'd pop for copium.
Anyway recently realized that the "Mother Country" has been the US' biggest frenemy for a very long time. The Founding Fathers were right to break away, UK is circling the drain and will drag the US with them.
I've been working on electric markets and new generation there for the last couple of years.
There are continued tussles amongst the oligarchs over which one gets to build new electric plants and what fuels they will import. Their Secretary of Energy seems in the pocket of the guys who want to import liquified natural gas (LNG), one of the most expensive fuels. They intend to shift to wind and solar - where will that gear come from? Didn't they learn anything from Germany or Califorina?
https://www.bing.com/ck/a?!&&p=307baf0392b34501JmltdHM9MTcxNTczMTIwMCZpZ3VpZD0yMzhkZDM5OC05YjdlLTZhNWYtMDBiZS1jNzhmOWE5ZjZiM2UmaW5zaWQ9NTQ5OQ&ptn=3&ver=2&hsh=3&fclid=238dd398-9b7e-6a5f-00be-c78f9a9f6b3e&u=a1L3ZpZGVvcy9yaXZlcnZpZXcvcmVsYXRlZHZpZGVvP3E9eW91dHViZStjb2p1YW5nY28rc3BlZWNoK2phbnVhcnkrMjAyNCZtaWQ9QjgzNTkzQjg1NTg4NDEzREFBOEVCODM1OTNCODU1ODg0MTNEQUE4RSZGT1JNPVZJUkU&ntb=1
The utility in Manila just contracted for a wholesale electric supply contract at Californian prices - 12.5 cents a kWhr. Retail prices are twice that or more. The price of electricity is one major factor keeping the country from capturing the industries fleeing China.
The country does have its problems but there is great hope there too.
A good example of the oligarchical system shooting the Philippines in the foot.
Nice place once you got away from Olongapo back in the day.
Good article. I lived in northern Luzon in the early 80s and then was stationed at Clark for my first USAF tour. I picked up a souvenir then and there and we're celebrating our 39th wedding anniversary today. We're very active in our state's Filipino community and my wife is on the board of our local Asia/Filipino Chamber of Commerce, looking for ways to promote more and better business building between our two countries. I've seen the growth of the tech sector in Cebu and the amazing triumph which is the Clark Free Economic Zone. I watch "walking tours" on YouTube of the places I used to live in and am astounded at both the economic growth and the sometimes boneheaded infrastructure decisions that are made (raising roads so they don't flood, but it now channels floodwaters straight into shops and homes!). I love the Philippines and the Filipino people, and look forward to seeing many more success stories come out of my second homeland. Mabuhay!
Going to be Filipino snow birds here in another year, escaping the Chicago winters to live at the wife's home just off the beach. It's good to know that things are improving. You can see it each year, but there is still a long way to go. Certainly on the corruption side, even down to the lowest levels of government. Amazing how things move faster/better with a little under the table payment even for the most simple of things.