Its another indicator that Ukrainian sea denial is against the Russian surface fleet extends much further than the immediate Ukrainian littoral and area around Sevastopol. Good. There is however no similar denial against the Black Sea Fleet Kilo class SS with Kaliber cruise missiles that continue operations un-altered by the presence of Ukrainian USV's.
Laz, you will note from the attack run video released in the case of SIG, the tanker was lit up like a Christmas tree, as were other ships seen..What do you make of that ?
Total lack of operational security in time of war. Make stupid decisions, win stupid prizes. I know that sounds harsh. War is like that. I could go off on a tangent regarding our freedom of the seas transits near Taiwan and the resulting recent joint PRC/Russian transit near Alaska, but I’ll leave that for another of Sal’s posts.
Agree. It seems that there were no lookouts on duty on the Russian navy amphib and the tanker. Both very visible. A lookout with night vision gear could have alerted the ships to danger and a manned weapon station could have responded.
Probably Viasat. The Ukrainian military was a customer before the war, but a very well executed Russian attack took them down at the start. That has been fixed.
Starlink modified the account parameters of the free accounts so they won’t work outside Ukraine or at significant speeds. I’ve heard that DoD funds some accounts that don’t have that restriction and use anti-jam antennas.
The Starlink map addresses signal availability on land, but not at sea. Their maritime services blurb says they provide “continuity to the vast majority of the Earth’s oceans and seas,” but does not discuss the Black Sea specifically. I presume a sales consultation could resolve that question, but since my palatial yacht has encountered a long-term schedule delay, I didn’t want to tie up their people in discussions with my people. Simple politeness, you know.
A Starlink sat needs to see you and a downlink site at the same time. So over oceans they need to use the newer version Starlink sat that have a laser link to another Starlink sat that has LoS to a downlink, and they don't constitute 100% of the in-service sats. Not sure if the Black sea is big enough that this is a problem or not.
What, the Russians are going to ban all ships from Ukrainian ports as an escalation? Sorry, they already did that. Close the airspace to commercial traffic? Already done. Invade? Did that too.
What's Putin doing to Russians? Heat in the winter, food in their bellies and no degenerates coming after Russian children. Let's see how this winter plays out in Europe.
The US was not in Ukraine's business. Putin wanted in and got Yanukovych, a corrupt man like himself, elected, and used him to try to run Ukraine. The people of Ukraine rose up against him. They didn't need the US to get them to do anything.
Your boy, Putin, could have prevented the war by not giving into his imperial ambitions. If you think Ukrainians are going lay their arms down when there is any chance of resistance, then you are a bigger fool than Putin.
Moscow gleefully funded wars in which their weapons killed our soldiers We didn't go all world war on them then, so there's no good reason for them t do so now. As lon as our forces don't directly fight theirs, we should be OK.
The question is whether Putin will use low-yield nukes somewhere in Ukraine that will buy him an advantage, like when Ukraine pushes south into Armiansk.
slap some solar cells on those "small surface drones" , and they'll run that 460nm easily. just takes some time. slow and quiet, low observable. who knows how long they have been in transit? timer on board to switch over to attack thrust mode, whatever that is. run in hot and boom.
said it before, and I'll say it again......wish Ukraine hit.... Vladivostok.
We’ll call that a point for hybrid power. Small, low freeboard dark blue and dark grey mottled surface craft are very hard to spot. But, of course, there is no reason such a craft would need to travel all alone from Ukraine to Vladivostok. The short track between Ukraine and Novorossiysk is about 350nm. There are any number of commercial shipping routes in the Sea of Japan that would provide a deployment location for a shorter distance than that.
The ignorance and innumeracy of media is legend. It's like they never do anything for themselves, cannot do anything for themselves from changing a light bulb to changing an engine
You will note that the journalist who wrote the Reuters article has a BA and MA in (basically) Russian Studies and has been in Russia/Ukraine since 2018. One can assume he knows Russia and Ukraine. But military experience or education. Therefore, he has to rely on what he has been spoon-fed. Many such cases.
Zeihan is one of the best informed on what is going on in Ukraine and Russia. He has been wrong from time to time/ He does not claim infallibility such as idiots like MacGregor. Mearsheimer, Johnson and Ritter.
The other potential adder in the math is length of darkness and determining the economic speed of the USVs. What might a mothership look like. My guess is that they might tow it out via a RHIB at sunset to get it further faster, then release. The other thing to consider is whether they can move these around Russian held Ukraine without being noticed and launch them from Russian held territory.
In the case of the SIG, you will note from the ownship video of the attack run, the drone came out from along side another ship and bore off a lot before the target came in to view.
Aug 8, 2023·edited Aug 8, 2023Liked by CDR Salamander
That image above should make the ghosts of every departed sub skipper pleased...
The run in on the attack was made from "down moon" with the target silhouetted against a brightly lit shore.
Maybe they got lucky...
But if the setup was deliberate (like the footage of the USV the maneuvering near the Sig's bow appeared to be ...-perhaps to verify her name? ...) then some serious BZ to the drivers and planners.
That also suggests more fuel burn to get into that position if so.
Of note, a few hours ago, a tweet showed the most recent Sentinel 2 imagery and the 2 intel ships absent from Sevastopol. (Also the Olegansky being warped over to the large floating drydock that was flooded a couple days ago).
Pretty amazed at the large number of pleasure craft out and about off the coasts of Crimea and southern Russia.
Would seem to me that the Russians would limit them to reduce the "white traffic" small boat clutter.
But no one will accuse the Russians of making good decisions in this war.
As I type (0530Z 09 Aug), this one is particularly curious. The Russian flagged sailing vessel Thalassa out in the middle of the Black Sea, not so far away from where one of the reputed USV attacks occurred against one of the AGI's...
Dumb civilian landlubber theory, but could such an operation be conducted covertly from a safe house in occupied Crimea? It's not like you'd need the infrastructure of U-boat Base Brest or the like.
If in fact the Skidoo Spark can go 166nm on its 7.9 gallon tank, then it would need 21 gallons (~58 kg) to go 500nm. That tank would have a volume of about 3.2 cubic feet (~0.09 cubic meters). It isn't clear to me that fuel would be a limiting factor preventing launching from Ukrainian territory, even if the device used a larger engine.
This. The limiting factor for a small boat transit this long in questionable seas is the endurance of the meat mass onboard. USVs don't have that problem.
I think it would be probable a drone this size would have that sort of range, and without a person onboard to get their spine beaten with that kind of transit, it's even more feasible.
Its another indicator that Ukrainian sea denial is against the Russian surface fleet extends much further than the immediate Ukrainian littoral and area around Sevastopol. Good. There is however no similar denial against the Black Sea Fleet Kilo class SS with Kaliber cruise missiles that continue operations un-altered by the presence of Ukrainian USV's.
ASW is hard and requires both intellectual capital in depth and air/surface/subsurface units trained in the art. UKR has none of that.
Well, Ukraine has an aerospace industry. And a few weeks ago, you may have noted, the captain of one of these subs was shot to death while jogging.
Should we consider that to be ASW by a different means?
Like Budanov said: Makarov pistol, seven bullets.
Russian Roulette using a semi-auto has never been considered good odds.
Mine hold eight, so I guess the point was that one was used?
Maybe give them old P-3's with MAD capability?
Aerospace but nothing but drones and the occasional chopper flies. That is not airpower.
And that industry can be bombed as well.
ASW by other means is right!
Agree. Until they do Russian KILO's will continue to operate with impunity.
Laz, you will note from the attack run video released in the case of SIG, the tanker was lit up like a Christmas tree, as were other ships seen..What do you make of that ?
Total lack of operational security in time of war. Make stupid decisions, win stupid prizes. I know that sounds harsh. War is like that. I could go off on a tangent regarding our freedom of the seas transits near Taiwan and the resulting recent joint PRC/Russian transit near Alaska, but I’ll leave that for another of Sal’s posts.
It's as if they were asking for it, no ? Could they have been. ?
That would imply a plot against the state that the FSB should investigate…or at least blame someone for.
I think that is possible, since the tanker did not sink DC prepared, did not burn and apparently lost no cargo.
Civilian Merchant vessel in hostile fire zone.
Attempts to stop Blue on Blue.
Who knows both sides fight stupid at times.
Agree. It seems that there were no lookouts on duty on the Russian navy amphib and the tanker. Both very visible. A lookout with night vision gear could have alerted the ships to danger and a manned weapon station could have responded.
Expecting reporters to do math was a good one!
How is the terminal guidance data link/video return feed accomplished?
Probably Viasat. The Ukrainian military was a customer before the war, but a very well executed Russian attack took them down at the start. That has been fixed.
Antenna looks like Starlink.
Are you saying Elon Musk may have enabled this attack?
Starlink modified the account parameters of the free accounts so they won’t work outside Ukraine or at significant speeds. I’ve heard that DoD funds some accounts that don’t have that restriction and use anti-jam antennas.
The Starlink map addresses signal availability on land, but not at sea. Their maritime services blurb says they provide “continuity to the vast majority of the Earth’s oceans and seas,” but does not discuss the Black Sea specifically. I presume a sales consultation could resolve that question, but since my palatial yacht has encountered a long-term schedule delay, I didn’t want to tie up their people in discussions with my people. Simple politeness, you know.
A Starlink sat needs to see you and a downlink site at the same time. So over oceans they need to use the newer version Starlink sat that have a laser link to another Starlink sat that has LoS to a downlink, and they don't constitute 100% of the in-service sats. Not sure if the Black sea is big enough that this is a problem or not.
This is really a stupid play. Russia escalates in parallel. So for the mission kill of an amphib, US/France/ NATO has to deal with the mess in Niger.
I realize there are many "rUsSiA bAd' midwits on the porch, but these little escalations may lead to some very terrible outcomes.
What, the Russians are going to ban all ships from Ukrainian ports as an escalation? Sorry, they already did that. Close the airspace to commercial traffic? Already done. Invade? Did that too.
I guess you missed "escalate in parallel" which means that their escalations will not be limited to actions in Ukraine or the Black Sea.
Watch for further events in Africa, the Middle East or who knows where..
The war in Ukraine or the Ukrainians will not be particularly impacted if the Russians blow up Bolivia.
The Bolivian Navy is powerless to prevent the Russians from interdicting Zelensky's cocaine supply, Just sayin', Kevin.
It’s not Zelenskyy who lost his cocaine in the White House.
You may want to read up on the CFA franc and what its demise would do to France.
I like that LOL!
What could be more terrible than what Putin is doing to your countrymen, Billy ?
What's Putin doing to Russians? Heat in the winter, food in their bellies and no degenerates coming after Russian children. Let's see how this winter plays out in Europe.
Full on Counter value strikes against the entire UAF infrastructure kind of a Linebacker II with Vodka and gusto.
Billy gets upset when Ukraine fights back.
I have a healthy fear of world wars that are avoidable.
Putin could have prevented it by staying out of Ukraine's business. His imperial ambitions would let him stay out.
US could have prevented it by staying out of Ukraine's business. His imperial ambitions would let it stay out.
The US was not in Ukraine's business. Putin wanted in and got Yanukovych, a corrupt man like himself, elected, and used him to try to run Ukraine. The people of Ukraine rose up against him. They didn't need the US to get them to do anything.
Your boy, Putin, could have prevented the war by not giving into his imperial ambitions. If you think Ukrainians are going lay their arms down when there is any chance of resistance, then you are a bigger fool than Putin.
"The US was not in Ukraine's business"
Bwahahaha😂
What's John McCain doing in this video? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lMMvSiVkjfg&ab_channel=PatrickRatliff
or this one
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=93eyhO8VTdg&ab_channel=TheGuardian
Mearsheimer breaks it down in 2015, much of what he predicted came true.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4&ab_channel=TheUniversityofChicago
Moscow gleefully funded wars in which their weapons killed our soldiers We didn't go all world war on them then, so there's no good reason for them t do so now. As lon as our forces don't directly fight theirs, we should be OK.
The question is whether Putin will use low-yield nukes somewhere in Ukraine that will buy him an advantage, like when Ukraine pushes south into Armiansk.
Both sides funded proxy contests against each other. The difference back then was that a loss did not present an existential threat to the loser.
NATO in Niger, has a nice ring to it, sounds like Mogadishu Somalia.
We know how that went.
We have already had an embarrassing example in 2017, the Tongo Tongo ambush.
Come now, "Russia is bad" is midwittery? You midwits have no idea what midwittery is.
They built a ramp from the old ASA field station at Sinop down to the water and the added Delta-V gave them the extra range?
Alternately, the Georgians still hold a grudge against the Black Sea Fleet?
Good point there. How far is it to the nearest beach in Georgia ?
Using Google Earth, I ran out a possible track of about 410sm (356nm).
slap some solar cells on those "small surface drones" , and they'll run that 460nm easily. just takes some time. slow and quiet, low observable. who knows how long they have been in transit? timer on board to switch over to attack thrust mode, whatever that is. run in hot and boom.
said it before, and I'll say it again......wish Ukraine hit.... Vladivostok.
We’ll call that a point for hybrid power. Small, low freeboard dark blue and dark grey mottled surface craft are very hard to spot. But, of course, there is no reason such a craft would need to travel all alone from Ukraine to Vladivostok. The short track between Ukraine and Novorossiysk is about 350nm. There are any number of commercial shipping routes in the Sea of Japan that would provide a deployment location for a shorter distance than that.
If UAF could they would, but the riposte would be an escalation again, up.
The ignorance and innumeracy of media is legend. It's like they never do anything for themselves, cannot do anything for themselves from changing a light bulb to changing an engine
You will note that the journalist who wrote the Reuters article has a BA and MA in (basically) Russian Studies and has been in Russia/Ukraine since 2018. One can assume he knows Russia and Ukraine. But military experience or education. Therefore, he has to rely on what he has been spoon-fed. Many such cases.
слава Україні and BZ. Hit 'em again.
Zeihan's stated opinion is that that the Turks are deploying these for the Ukrainians. No idea myself.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydv_3n5__2I
Zeihan is a broken clock. Right twice a day only because of immutability of time.
Zeihan is one of the best informed on what is going on in Ukraine and Russia. He has been wrong from time to time/ He does not claim infallibility such as idiots like MacGregor. Mearsheimer, Johnson and Ritter.
The other potential adder in the math is length of darkness and determining the economic speed of the USVs. What might a mothership look like. My guess is that they might tow it out via a RHIB at sunset to get it further faster, then release. The other thing to consider is whether they can move these around Russian held Ukraine without being noticed and launch them from Russian held territory.
In the case of the SIG, you will note from the ownship video of the attack run, the drone came out from along side another ship and bore off a lot before the target came in to view.
This kinda' begs a couple of questions.
1. How good are Russian maritime surveillance satellites?
2. Will the Chinese provide more real time satellite resources to their new buddies?
(I don't know how fast said drones are, or if satellite optics or radar would detect the vehicle or the wake.)
As a clue to their mariteme sats, last time I actually knew (many years ago), other Russian sats were generations behind their US counterparts.
That image above should make the ghosts of every departed sub skipper pleased...
The run in on the attack was made from "down moon" with the target silhouetted against a brightly lit shore.
Maybe they got lucky...
But if the setup was deliberate (like the footage of the USV the maneuvering near the Sig's bow appeared to be ...-perhaps to verify her name? ...) then some serious BZ to the drivers and planners.
That also suggests more fuel burn to get into that position if so.
Of note, a few hours ago, a tweet showed the most recent Sentinel 2 imagery and the 2 intel ships absent from Sevastopol. (Also the Olegansky being warped over to the large floating drydock that was flooded a couple days ago).
https://twitter.com/MT_Anderson/status/1688681248984911875/photo/1
https://twitter.com/MT_Anderson/status/1688771275353939968/photo/1
Update:
The Olegansky is in the drydock:
https://twitter.com/MT_Anderson/status/1688932639728918528?s=20
My bet is the mother ship is the same charter line as the Nord Stream yacht… same club. Snark
There is a mother ship and it’s likely attached to a three letter agency…..
I'm not saying there is a link but this needs looking in to.
https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-jFeEgoS8kx0/UdbwmZyaTxI/AAAAAAAAYsE/sDUk9Tfvpwo/s320/johnKerryBostonHeraldfrontpagejuly52013.jpg
https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmilitarymachine.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2019%2F01%2FJohn-Kerry.jpg&f=1&nofb=1&ipt=a33254500c69c794fec1849e0e1588e56a11ddf6d375ad9f09d3d521fe0ced87&ipo=images
Pretty amazed at the large number of pleasure craft out and about off the coasts of Crimea and southern Russia.
Would seem to me that the Russians would limit them to reduce the "white traffic" small boat clutter.
But no one will accuse the Russians of making good decisions in this war.
As I type (0530Z 09 Aug), this one is particularly curious. The Russian flagged sailing vessel Thalassa out in the middle of the Black Sea, not so far away from where one of the reputed USV attacks occurred against one of the AGI's...
43.12N 031.83E
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/shipid:3709061/zoom:8
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/photos/of/ships/shipid:3709061/shipname:THALASSA?order=date_uploaded
This pic was taken last year during one of the first USV attacks off Sevastopol...
Nothing like an approaching squall and a spot of exploding ordnance to liven up a spinnaker run!!!
https://forums.sailinganarchy.com/threads/pics-that-get-you.238715/page-10#post-8054239
Dumb civilian landlubber theory, but could such an operation be conducted covertly from a safe house in occupied Crimea? It's not like you'd need the infrastructure of U-boat Base Brest or the like.
The tricky part would seem to be having a secure hidden/disguised launch site or boat house.
If in fact the Skidoo Spark can go 166nm on its 7.9 gallon tank, then it would need 21 gallons (~58 kg) to go 500nm. That tank would have a volume of about 3.2 cubic feet (~0.09 cubic meters). It isn't clear to me that fuel would be a limiting factor preventing launching from Ukrainian territory, even if the device used a larger engine.
This. The limiting factor for a small boat transit this long in questionable seas is the endurance of the meat mass onboard. USVs don't have that problem.
Mother ships are definitely possible, but these are probably the 5.5m Magura drones with an estimated range of 450NM or a successor platform. http://www.hisutton.com/Ukraine-Maritime-Drones-Evolution.html
I think it would be probable a drone this size would have that sort of range, and without a person onboard to get their spine beaten with that kind of transit, it's even more feasible.