Its another indicator that Ukrainian sea denial is against the Russian surface fleet extends much further than the immediate Ukrainian littoral and area around Sevastopol. Good. There is however no similar denial against the Black Sea Fleet Kilo class SS with Kaliber cruise missiles that continue operations un-altered by the presence of Ukrainian USV's.
slap some solar cells on those "small surface drones" , and they'll run that 460nm easily. just takes some time. slow and quiet, low observable. who knows how long they have been in transit? timer on board to switch over to attack thrust mode, whatever that is. run in hot and boom.
said it before, and I'll say it again......wish Ukraine hit.... Vladivostok.
The ignorance and innumeracy of media is legend. It's like they never do anything for themselves, cannot do anything for themselves from changing a light bulb to changing an engine
The other potential adder in the math is length of darkness and determining the economic speed of the USVs. What might a mothership look like. My guess is that they might tow it out via a RHIB at sunset to get it further faster, then release. The other thing to consider is whether they can move these around Russian held Ukraine without being noticed and launch them from Russian held territory.
Aug 8, 2023·edited Aug 8, 2023Liked by CDR Salamander
That image above should make the ghosts of every departed sub skipper pleased...
The run in on the attack was made from "down moon" with the target silhouetted against a brightly lit shore.
Maybe they got lucky...
But if the setup was deliberate (like the footage of the USV the maneuvering near the Sig's bow appeared to be ...-perhaps to verify her name? ...) then some serious BZ to the drivers and planners.
That also suggests more fuel burn to get into that position if so.
Of note, a few hours ago, a tweet showed the most recent Sentinel 2 imagery and the 2 intel ships absent from Sevastopol. (Also the Olegansky being warped over to the large floating drydock that was flooded a couple days ago).
Dumb civilian landlubber theory, but could such an operation be conducted covertly from a safe house in occupied Crimea? It's not like you'd need the infrastructure of U-boat Base Brest or the like.
If in fact the Skidoo Spark can go 166nm on its 7.9 gallon tank, then it would need 21 gallons (~58 kg) to go 500nm. That tank would have a volume of about 3.2 cubic feet (~0.09 cubic meters). It isn't clear to me that fuel would be a limiting factor preventing launching from Ukrainian territory, even if the device used a larger engine.
I think it would be probable a drone this size would have that sort of range, and without a person onboard to get their spine beaten with that kind of transit, it's even more feasible.
Its another indicator that Ukrainian sea denial is against the Russian surface fleet extends much further than the immediate Ukrainian littoral and area around Sevastopol. Good. There is however no similar denial against the Black Sea Fleet Kilo class SS with Kaliber cruise missiles that continue operations un-altered by the presence of Ukrainian USV's.
Expecting reporters to do math was a good one!
How is the terminal guidance data link/video return feed accomplished?
This is really a stupid play. Russia escalates in parallel. So for the mission kill of an amphib, US/France/ NATO has to deal with the mess in Niger.
I realize there are many "rUsSiA bAd' midwits on the porch, but these little escalations may lead to some very terrible outcomes.
They built a ramp from the old ASA field station at Sinop down to the water and the added Delta-V gave them the extra range?
Alternately, the Georgians still hold a grudge against the Black Sea Fleet?
slap some solar cells on those "small surface drones" , and they'll run that 460nm easily. just takes some time. slow and quiet, low observable. who knows how long they have been in transit? timer on board to switch over to attack thrust mode, whatever that is. run in hot and boom.
said it before, and I'll say it again......wish Ukraine hit.... Vladivostok.
The ignorance and innumeracy of media is legend. It's like they never do anything for themselves, cannot do anything for themselves from changing a light bulb to changing an engine
слава Україні and BZ. Hit 'em again.
Zeihan's stated opinion is that that the Turks are deploying these for the Ukrainians. No idea myself.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydv_3n5__2I
The other potential adder in the math is length of darkness and determining the economic speed of the USVs. What might a mothership look like. My guess is that they might tow it out via a RHIB at sunset to get it further faster, then release. The other thing to consider is whether they can move these around Russian held Ukraine without being noticed and launch them from Russian held territory.
This kinda' begs a couple of questions.
1. How good are Russian maritime surveillance satellites?
2. Will the Chinese provide more real time satellite resources to their new buddies?
(I don't know how fast said drones are, or if satellite optics or radar would detect the vehicle or the wake.)
That image above should make the ghosts of every departed sub skipper pleased...
The run in on the attack was made from "down moon" with the target silhouetted against a brightly lit shore.
Maybe they got lucky...
But if the setup was deliberate (like the footage of the USV the maneuvering near the Sig's bow appeared to be ...-perhaps to verify her name? ...) then some serious BZ to the drivers and planners.
That also suggests more fuel burn to get into that position if so.
Of note, a few hours ago, a tweet showed the most recent Sentinel 2 imagery and the 2 intel ships absent from Sevastopol. (Also the Olegansky being warped over to the large floating drydock that was flooded a couple days ago).
https://twitter.com/MT_Anderson/status/1688681248984911875/photo/1
https://twitter.com/MT_Anderson/status/1688771275353939968/photo/1
Update:
The Olegansky is in the drydock:
https://twitter.com/MT_Anderson/status/1688932639728918528?s=20
My bet is the mother ship is the same charter line as the Nord Stream yacht… same club. Snark
There is a mother ship and it’s likely attached to a three letter agency…..
Dumb civilian landlubber theory, but could such an operation be conducted covertly from a safe house in occupied Crimea? It's not like you'd need the infrastructure of U-boat Base Brest or the like.
If in fact the Skidoo Spark can go 166nm on its 7.9 gallon tank, then it would need 21 gallons (~58 kg) to go 500nm. That tank would have a volume of about 3.2 cubic feet (~0.09 cubic meters). It isn't clear to me that fuel would be a limiting factor preventing launching from Ukrainian territory, even if the device used a larger engine.
Mother ships are definitely possible, but these are probably the 5.5m Magura drones with an estimated range of 450NM or a successor platform. http://www.hisutton.com/Ukraine-Maritime-Drones-Evolution.html
I think it would be probable a drone this size would have that sort of range, and without a person onboard to get their spine beaten with that kind of transit, it's even more feasible.