A production rate of 12 per year is crafting, not industrial production.
“Lovingly hand crafted from artisanal aluminum, free trade copper wiring, and boutique semiconductors, these pieces of art are the perfect addition to the discriminating collector’s modern art display…”
But practicing with an empty container doesn't = combat capability with live rounds.
And for the life of me I cannot understanding broadcasting to our world enemies the pitiful procurement we have to defend against the greatest threat. Geez Louise, it's like "Here's your Glock 19, and here's your 2 rounds of hollow points, make every round count, no more until next year and good luck".
I think we need a heavy emphasis on guided missile cruisers. For too long the U.S. has depended on carriers for both air supremacy and strike. With ballistic missiles and hypersonic missiles, anti-aircraft and anti-ballistic missiles are increasingly important. Also, for strike, cruise missiles offer better ability against an enemy with a significant investment in anti-aircraft missiles.
From the Arsenal of Democracy to this in a little over two generations. Thank you, "smartest" people in the room. And by smartest I mean overly credentialed. Globalization: the gift that keeps on giving.
Tell your kids and grandkids to learn Mandarin Chinese.
Building enough birds on an industrial scale is the first part of the problem. Getting them into ships' empty magazines is the second. Too bad we decommed our tenders with at-sea reloading capability.
They cost so much because we only buy 12. If we buy them in quantity there are all sorts of ways to make production more efficient and cost less. The first one cost a fortune. The 1,000-th one should cost a whole lot less.
US Navy needs to go offensive instead of throwing more money on defense with a tight deadlines and budget.
The best defense is offense.
There need to be realistic tradeoff and balance between defense and offense like 80% offense and 20% defense.
That's why Cold War nuclear MAD is effective.
That means ramping up production of offensive missiles. Lots of it.
The PRC also knows that they have weaker or non-existence defense against US missiles.
The only reason for an anti-ballistic missile defense is to live another day for further offense by protecting enough ability left to retaliate significantly.
We are not a serious Navy. We have no one with the influence or panache or the credibility to move the chains on this issue. It’s simple: we need the fucking missiles.
I’m betting that our batteries are not even filled to 100% at sea and we have no visibility on the casreps of the mk41 launchers.
Sounds about right on CASREPS. I've heard from sailors about ships having all sorts of material issues but still going to sea. Nothing I can prove, but they get me to thank my lucky stars I was onboard SSBNs when active duty.
Mind you, that's nothing new in some ways. I remember a retired CWO who worked for PSNS as a test engineer say he'd kept his MK 112 ASROC launcher (special weapons capable!) working with beer can aluminum on the hydraulics systems for pinhole leaks in the 1970s (1). I think we need to end the presumption of equal need between the services unless there's going to be a massive money infusion across the board. Our coasting off the 1980's build up is ending, and the recapitalization is expensive, but less expensive than defeat.
(1) Sea story: The engineer said they had a drug and alcohol problem in that era, to the point where he found a shipmate's pot stash in the special tools locker, and found out who it belonged to by pitching it overboard. The guy who brought it was not happy. That's why we all get the whiz quiz...
My CWO had me and my shop take apart every component with visible damage in a system whenever we had a fire or flooded. Once the system was repaired and back on line, the box of charred/salted pieces would come back to the workbench and be stripped down to individual components (resistors, springs in contactors, etc.) If they were still functional they would be labeled and stored in the Vidmars. He was big on having "backups" outside of the supply system. Got us back up quickly a time or two. Amazing how paranoid CWOs used to be!
We still are. I had my Chief stock up on shit paper. He couldn’t figure out why. We traded that shit paper on cruise for onion skin (chart paper) with the flag staff and coffee from the CAG staff.
In the 80's, I had a sailor who stashed his hash in the balloon inflation room on the Nimitz (back aft stbd where the landing light thingy is now) .. he would hide it in the angle iron stiffeners about 10 feet up .. no zone inspector ever reached up there :)
If I wasn't held down by the family, I'd be looking to move for finding a job at a production facility. Like a twitter post from David Larter yesterday on strategic weapons modernization, this has been a long time coming, and there's a lot of people who see it as priority. We're working off the 1980's defense build up, and the time for recapitalization should have started 10 years ago, but it hasn't. Thank the Lord we haven't had to start paying dane-geld!
O/T but apropos, apparently there have been sustained nightly visits by exceptionally large drones over east coast bases.
If leadership can't deal with an immediate active threat within conus, how can you expect them to be intellectually capable of dealing with something as complex as replenishment analysis.
Just heard about this....for two weeks straight they were over the Langley/Norfolk-area, not a single air-search radar or any Aegis equip'd shipped was able to get its SPY-1 up and running? FOGO leadership's only response is '..they're baffled'
Then there's the Chinese student who was flying his drone over Newport...later discovered with a one-way airplane ticket to, Beijing.
I’m now quite sure the first two weeks will be more painful, or at least as painful as Pearl Harbour. And the next 3 to 36 months even more painful.
And if there are still people who will care and be in charge after 5 years, investigations will find, to no one’s surprise, about malicious influence and received bribes all the way back to 2000? 2010? that caused all this.
I think what we have now is an unrecognised Cold War, with bits of actual hot war in some places. But only the CCP actually knows and behaves like it is so.
I'd be curious to know our VLS throw weight after we get finished with the AEGIS cruiser drawdown. That's a problem that is imminent. The lack of missiles and lack of interest in producing replacements is another. Both are critical points of failure. Combined with the lopsided deficit spending use of multi-million dollar missiles to defend against numerous cheap threat drone / missile platforms reeks of deliberately planning to fail. But, we're executing that plan flawlessly, so there's that.
Excellent article. Just wondering if the THAAD deployment to Israel is some sort of bribe to the Israelis on their future target choices in Iran. Yeah, I'm cynical.
Captain Mongo: You are not cynical. You are paying attention. Deploying a THAAD battery to Israel undermines Israel's deterrence, making it more likely, not less likely, that Iran or another actor will fire more capable ballistic missiles at Israel, and making Israel more reliant on US military "assistance." Congress will jump on board, using aid to Israel as a wedge issue. Plus, there will be US boots on the ground in Israel, further unscoringing Israel's dependency on the US military. Israel needs more offensive capabilities, including increased, home-built supplies of conventional munitions and systems.
Netanyahu has to honor the threat that Biden presents. No one hates depending on another country more than Bibi, but for now, Israel is dependent upon the U.S. I read that Israel is doing what it can, under the circumstances, to reduce that dependence. But for now...
We are an incredibly unserious country. We and the entirety of NATO can’t make enough munitions and weapons to match Russia output. We blew through a years production worth of sea-based interceptors in one engagement in the middle east. And yet we are contemplating having a naval war with China in their hemisphere.
My understanding is that we have an almost unlimited supply of DEI manuals.
Our almost unlimited supply of HR reps can throw those manuals at the enemy.
How many launchable DEI-manual-equipped HR Reps can they fit into an Arleigh Burke class’s VLS cells?
Trebuchets. See my post above.
LOL .. I had ChatGPT create an image of a DEI person being launched from a Terebuchet .. hillarious ..
My suggestion would be to throw the HR DEI crowd at the enemy, using trebuchets, because going medieval isn't always bad.
A production rate of 12 per year is crafting, not industrial production.
“Lovingly hand crafted from artisanal aluminum, free trade copper wiring, and boutique semiconductors, these pieces of art are the perfect addition to the discriminating collector’s modern art display…”
Only if those artisans were chosen with equity as the primary goal.
Wrapped in rich Corinthian leather…
Not on a 'War Footing' . . . that is for sure. This Must Be Escalated NOW!
Here's a question: What's the max rate that they can be built at? Is it so intricate that it take 2 weeks per missile?
War Zone just had article on reloading VLS: https://www.twz.com/news-features/navy-just-demonstrated-reloading-vertical-launch-system-at-sea-for-the-first-time
But practicing with an empty container doesn't = combat capability with live rounds.
And for the life of me I cannot understanding broadcasting to our world enemies the pitiful procurement we have to defend against the greatest threat. Geez Louise, it's like "Here's your Glock 19, and here's your 2 rounds of hollow points, make every round count, no more until next year and good luck".
Nice sea state. Good place to start though. https://www.dvidshub.net/image/8695239/uss-chosin-cg-65-and-usns-washington-chambers-t-ake-11-conduct-transferrable-rearming-mechanism-tram
It’s a start
I think we need a heavy emphasis on guided missile cruisers. For too long the U.S. has depended on carriers for both air supremacy and strike. With ballistic missiles and hypersonic missiles, anti-aircraft and anti-ballistic missiles are increasingly important. Also, for strike, cruise missiles offer better ability against an enemy with a significant investment in anti-aircraft missiles.
From the Arsenal of Democracy to this in a little over two generations. Thank you, "smartest" people in the room. And by smartest I mean overly credentialed. Globalization: the gift that keeps on giving.
Tell your kids and grandkids to learn Mandarin Chinese.
Building enough birds on an industrial scale is the first part of the problem. Getting them into ships' empty magazines is the second. Too bad we decommed our tenders with at-sea reloading capability.
Tenders are the opposite of "transformational."
We better start getting our SM-3 production up to about 3000 a year then.
They cost so much because we only buy 12. If we buy them in quantity there are all sorts of ways to make production more efficient and cost less. The first one cost a fortune. The 1,000-th one should cost a whole lot less.
US Navy needs to go offensive instead of throwing more money on defense with a tight deadlines and budget.
The best defense is offense.
There need to be realistic tradeoff and balance between defense and offense like 80% offense and 20% defense.
That's why Cold War nuclear MAD is effective.
That means ramping up production of offensive missiles. Lots of it.
The PRC also knows that they have weaker or non-existence defense against US missiles.
The only reason for an anti-ballistic missile defense is to live another day for further offense by protecting enough ability left to retaliate significantly.
We are not a serious Navy. We have no one with the influence or panache or the credibility to move the chains on this issue. It’s simple: we need the fucking missiles.
I’m betting that our batteries are not even filled to 100% at sea and we have no visibility on the casreps of the mk41 launchers.
Sounds about right on CASREPS. I've heard from sailors about ships having all sorts of material issues but still going to sea. Nothing I can prove, but they get me to thank my lucky stars I was onboard SSBNs when active duty.
Mind you, that's nothing new in some ways. I remember a retired CWO who worked for PSNS as a test engineer say he'd kept his MK 112 ASROC launcher (special weapons capable!) working with beer can aluminum on the hydraulics systems for pinhole leaks in the 1970s (1). I think we need to end the presumption of equal need between the services unless there's going to be a massive money infusion across the board. Our coasting off the 1980's build up is ending, and the recapitalization is expensive, but less expensive than defeat.
(1) Sea story: The engineer said they had a drug and alcohol problem in that era, to the point where he found a shipmate's pot stash in the special tools locker, and found out who it belonged to by pitching it overboard. The guy who brought it was not happy. That's why we all get the whiz quiz...
My CWO had me and my shop take apart every component with visible damage in a system whenever we had a fire or flooded. Once the system was repaired and back on line, the box of charred/salted pieces would come back to the workbench and be stripped down to individual components (resistors, springs in contactors, etc.) If they were still functional they would be labeled and stored in the Vidmars. He was big on having "backups" outside of the supply system. Got us back up quickly a time or two. Amazing how paranoid CWOs used to be!
We still are. I had my Chief stock up on shit paper. He couldn’t figure out why. We traded that shit paper on cruise for onion skin (chart paper) with the flag staff and coffee from the CAG staff.
In the 80's, I had a sailor who stashed his hash in the balloon inflation room on the Nimitz (back aft stbd where the landing light thingy is now) .. he would hide it in the angle iron stiffeners about 10 feet up .. no zone inspector ever reached up there :)
One person shits their pants, we all wear a diaper.
If I wasn't held down by the family, I'd be looking to move for finding a job at a production facility. Like a twitter post from David Larter yesterday on strategic weapons modernization, this has been a long time coming, and there's a lot of people who see it as priority. We're working off the 1980's defense build up, and the time for recapitalization should have started 10 years ago, but it hasn't. Thank the Lord we haven't had to start paying dane-geld!
https://www.kiplingsociety.co.uk/poem/poems_danegeld.htm
https://www.kiplingsociety.co.uk/poem/poems_dykes.htm
O/T but apropos, apparently there have been sustained nightly visits by exceptionally large drones over east coast bases.
If leadership can't deal with an immediate active threat within conus, how can you expect them to be intellectually capable of dealing with something as complex as replenishment analysis.
Just heard about this....for two weeks straight they were over the Langley/Norfolk-area, not a single air-search radar or any Aegis equip'd shipped was able to get its SPY-1 up and running? FOGO leadership's only response is '..they're baffled'
Then there's the Chinese student who was flying his drone over Newport...later discovered with a one-way airplane ticket to, Beijing.
https://www.theverge.com/2024/7/12/24197356/chinese-national-graduate-student-espionage-act-drone-navy-shipyard-plea-guilty
I’m now quite sure the first two weeks will be more painful, or at least as painful as Pearl Harbour. And the next 3 to 36 months even more painful.
And if there are still people who will care and be in charge after 5 years, investigations will find, to no one’s surprise, about malicious influence and received bribes all the way back to 2000? 2010? that caused all this.
I think what we have now is an unrecognised Cold War, with bits of actual hot war in some places. But only the CCP actually knows and behaves like it is so.
Visit Taiwan while you still can.
I have, thankfully.
I'd be curious to know our VLS throw weight after we get finished with the AEGIS cruiser drawdown. That's a problem that is imminent. The lack of missiles and lack of interest in producing replacements is another. Both are critical points of failure. Combined with the lopsided deficit spending use of multi-million dollar missiles to defend against numerous cheap threat drone / missile platforms reeks of deliberately planning to fail. But, we're executing that plan flawlessly, so there's that.
Excellent article. Just wondering if the THAAD deployment to Israel is some sort of bribe to the Israelis on their future target choices in Iran. Yeah, I'm cynical.
Either that or the “Big Green Machine” wanting some air time and visibility for their kinetic defenses…my cynicism showing…
Captain Mongo: You are not cynical. You are paying attention. Deploying a THAAD battery to Israel undermines Israel's deterrence, making it more likely, not less likely, that Iran or another actor will fire more capable ballistic missiles at Israel, and making Israel more reliant on US military "assistance." Congress will jump on board, using aid to Israel as a wedge issue. Plus, there will be US boots on the ground in Israel, further unscoringing Israel's dependency on the US military. Israel needs more offensive capabilities, including increased, home-built supplies of conventional munitions and systems.
Netanyahu has to honor the threat that Biden presents. No one hates depending on another country more than Bibi, but for now, Israel is dependent upon the U.S. I read that Israel is doing what it can, under the circumstances, to reduce that dependence. But for now...
“No training time outs in war.” 🎯
No participation 🏆 either.
We are an incredibly unserious country. We and the entirety of NATO can’t make enough munitions and weapons to match Russia output. We blew through a years production worth of sea-based interceptors in one engagement in the middle east. And yet we are contemplating having a naval war with China in their hemisphere.
Aaron: One engagement in the Middle East, against early 19th Century pirates equipped with motor boats, missiles and UAVs.
The more I learn, the less I think that we will go to war against China on their home turf. We would lose.