"...when the US Army is riding Russian trains heading east toward the Urals to fight alongside their Russian allies, holding the line at Yekaterinburg as winter comes."
That was the plot of _The Bear and the Dragon_ by Tom Clancy.
Clancy DID scribble out a few things that had a hint of prophecy!! The Bear and Dragon scenario- well I liked it at the time, and some of his plots could be worse as reality!
I am pretty sure no one in Washington actually believes China when they show this map. They believe it is just internal propaganda to keep up support in China. I think that is a bit of projection on the part of the Washington types. The other issue we have is this. We keep commenting that we aren't seeming to take seriously the need to build up forces for a possible fight with China over either Taiwan or somewhere in the south China sea. I think the answer to that is simple. When Washington talks about a Pacific Pivot or preparing for great power competition that is just internal propaganda for Americans. I don't think anyone in the current administration has any intention of fighting China over Taiwan or anything else for that matter. A fight with China would be economically devastating to the US due to the overreliance on Chinese exports and we are not changing that anytime soon. Any administration that gets us into a war with China for any reason except possibly the Chinese nuking an American city would be voted out overwhelmingly in the next election so it is just not going to happen. If you have no intention of fighting China then there is no reason to spend any money building up the military to do so. They will just make some loud complaints at the UN and that will be all that will happen.
"A fight with China would be economically devastating to the US due to the overreliance on Chinese exports and we are not changing that anytime soon." There are few things that I look at in my home that are not Made in China.
Washington isn't serious about dong *anything* that doesn't enrich the Congresscritters. War upsets the financial markets, as shown most recently when my IRA dropped ~20% right after Russia invaded Ukraine (personal corrections have been made).
The Khabarovsk region had been a dominion of the Qing dynasty for a couple of centuries until the Russians grabbed it through the Treaty of Aigun in 1858. That treaty, which the Chinese didn't like at all, established much of the modern border between the Russian Far East and China by ceding much of Manchuria, now known as Northeast China. Later treaties codified and expanded the Russian grip on the Far East Provinces.
The point is, all this happened in the 19th Century, and so the Chinese (in their minds and especially in their sensitive grievances) believe that the land is still theirs, as much so as Taiwan. If they can't lay claim to the land right now, they can persuade the Russians to sell them what's under the land at a cheap price. For now.
Only our brilliant Ivy league educated neoconservative policy makers could have turned Russia and China into allies by expanding NATO to the Russian border.
I really don’t think China is interest in war because as Sun Tzu said wars cost much silver. So much easier to buy or lease than conquer.
China is however prepared for a war should a failing nation in the West seek one.
Is China’s foreign policy any different from our Manifest Destiny back in the days when we produced real goods?
They're not allies. They are in a mutual supporting relationship that is temporary. As this map demonstrates Russia and China have their own long term disputes.
Xi Jinping is the ruling authority in China. Xi has demonstrated repeatedly that he values ideological goals over economic growth. People really should start paying attention. This notion that China will not go to war to achieve bedrock ideological goals because it needs to preserve its growth rate is just wish casting.
At this time, however, PRC can milk the territories for their resources without having to govern them, which lets them keep up their soft approach to taking over all of those less-than-awake countries in the South Pacific on the down-low. Just like the period before Pearl Harbor, most Americans are totally asleep regarding current activity in the Pacific.
At what point will the Russian bear use up all of its military resources in Ukraine and leave nothing for defense of the far east. Will it just be too big of a target for China to ignore? Way easier to take than Taiwan if just wanting to flex military might.
I keep wondering how much Russia has to keep back from Ukraine just to keep the internal situation in check and to keep the Chinese out. Nukes against a nuclear power are not that much of a threat especially if the limits of Chinese expansion are defined up front (see your map). Are you willing to exchange Moscow for Beijing just to keep some god forsaken far off acreage in Asia?
Russia is feeding all of its volunteer units into the Ukrainian meat grinder. If there are sizable Russian army formations in the Far East they are probably untrained conscripts.
They literally have an entire Northern Army that hasn't been committed anywhere. Some of the reserve units were sent to cut off the Uke's line of retreat from Kursk. That's it.
Nothing like spurring warming relations with your now junior partner by telegraphing the fact you want to steal their stuff. Gives me hope for our team.
Maybe Xi thinks Russia will sell it to him? Afterall, Russia needs the Chinese to buy their commodities to keep their economy growing and fund the war effort.
So what the Russians are doing is destroying their armed forces in Ukraine, which they want - at least the eastern part, Donbass and Crimea - for its rich supplies of rare earth metals and petroleum/natural gas. Donbass has the second largest deposit of lithium ore in Europe, with lots of rare earth metals, oil, natural gas, and coal - then there are the exploratory wells in the Black Sea off of the Crimean coast and the coast of Krasnodar Krai. Vladimir Vladimirovich does hold a PhD in Natural Resource Economics (1997) from the St Petersburg Mining University, after all. And there are no problems with Siberian cold temps or permafrost, and there are at least two warmwater ports available... The Chinese have been doing their best to keep Russia "in the fight" but not winning the war, because that fits their plan just fine, eventually they can march right in and take the Russian Far East, and Russia won't be able to do anything about it...
Being cut off from the bearings they need to to maintain their rail network has called into question their ability to maintain their transport net. At present it is getting hard. With the switch to a war economy, they are having labor shortages. Other imports they relied on are also in short supply. China is forcing Putin into a barter import economy as Chinese banks are not accepting payments from Russia.
While the economy is not destroyed, yet, it is on the way. Sanctions have been hurting, and it tends to show among the poorest areas first. Inflation is running about 9%, and that hurts no matter who you are. In a war economy, things can get away from the regime in unexpected ways.
The big difference between WW2 and now is the lack of western support. There is a joke going around about Putin having a seance and speaking with Stalin,
Putin: Comrade, Nazis are outside of Kursk again. What should I do?
Stalin: Just do what I did in 1943. Put the best Ukrainian troops in front, and ask the US for arms.
Yeah, the big trouble they have is a bad shortage of experienced skilled labor - a lot of those people ended up in Ukraine, forever. Not even the sanctions on consumer good containing semiconductor chips work, due to resellers in India and other places, which act as "strawman buyers". I'd bet that China is targeting Russia with "debt trap diplomacy" and if Putin continues on this path, China is going to eat his lunch for him. As for civilian morale, in the areas populated by ethnic Russians, not much change except for that the youth aren't buying it for the most part - TV-watchers are still all in, but there are holes appearing in that, too: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zs2Bc58E9j4
Yes, and in the cities it is on the people in charge. If you look, it will almost always be the Democrats. In places like West Virginia, it is the result of better than 100 years with Democrats in charge.
WV ran a lot of business out of the state. They were well known as anti-business. That is just one example.
Not quite. We send thirty year old outdated and obsolete military materiel and weapons - stuff destined for the junkyard otherwise - and value it at its cost, not at the salvage value. The expense comes with replacing it with modern, state of the art materiel and weapons… which the US keeps. Here are a couple of squadrons' worth of F-16s waiting to be remade into target drones - which could be sent to Ukraine instead... https://www.airplaneboneyards.com/arizona-airplane-boneyards-storage.htm That might be a better use for them.
The Ukrainian invasion of Russia seems to be going as well as the Allied Passchendaele offensive of 1917. And that make sense because the previous Ukrainian invasion worked as well as the Allied Somme offensive of 1916.
I see the same future. Russian and Chinese alliance is one of temporary convivence. Xi is going to decide taking Taiwan may be too hard for now, but he will have to show some success. Taking back Russian land may be a lot easier.
"...when the US Army is riding Russian trains heading east toward the Urals to fight alongside their Russian allies, holding the line at Yekaterinburg as winter comes."
That was the plot of _The Bear and the Dragon_ by Tom Clancy.
beat me.
Next thing you know, Tom will be writing about airliners crashing into buildings...
Clancy DID scribble out a few things that had a hint of prophecy!! The Bear and Dragon scenario- well I liked it at the time, and some of his plots could be worse as reality!
Tom won't be scribbling anything, but he did cover this in Debt of Honor.
They were fighting much further east. China is Russia's real enemy.
China knows it. I'm not certain that Russia fully appreciates the threat. A few of Sal's recent articles gives depth to the argument.
I am pretty sure no one in Washington actually believes China when they show this map. They believe it is just internal propaganda to keep up support in China. I think that is a bit of projection on the part of the Washington types. The other issue we have is this. We keep commenting that we aren't seeming to take seriously the need to build up forces for a possible fight with China over either Taiwan or somewhere in the south China sea. I think the answer to that is simple. When Washington talks about a Pacific Pivot or preparing for great power competition that is just internal propaganda for Americans. I don't think anyone in the current administration has any intention of fighting China over Taiwan or anything else for that matter. A fight with China would be economically devastating to the US due to the overreliance on Chinese exports and we are not changing that anytime soon. Any administration that gets us into a war with China for any reason except possibly the Chinese nuking an American city would be voted out overwhelmingly in the next election so it is just not going to happen. If you have no intention of fighting China then there is no reason to spend any money building up the military to do so. They will just make some loud complaints at the UN and that will be all that will happen.
"A fight with China would be economically devastating to the US due to the overreliance on Chinese exports and we are not changing that anytime soon." There are few things that I look at in my home that are not Made in China.
The theory that close economic ties will prevent war was debunked over a hundred years ago.
Washington isn't serious about dong *anything* that doesn't enrich the Congresscritters. War upsets the financial markets, as shown most recently when my IRA dropped ~20% right after Russia invaded Ukraine (personal corrections have been made).
There was a Ralph Peters novel back in the day with a similar plot.
The War in 2020, except it was a Russo-American force fighting Japanese-backed Muslim rebels in Central Asia.
that's the one. Thank you!
Is that the one that had a sapper attack where they blew up $10b in B2 bombers at the start?
The Khabarovsk region had been a dominion of the Qing dynasty for a couple of centuries until the Russians grabbed it through the Treaty of Aigun in 1858. That treaty, which the Chinese didn't like at all, established much of the modern border between the Russian Far East and China by ceding much of Manchuria, now known as Northeast China. Later treaties codified and expanded the Russian grip on the Far East Provinces.
The point is, all this happened in the 19th Century, and so the Chinese (in their minds and especially in their sensitive grievances) believe that the land is still theirs, as much so as Taiwan. If they can't lay claim to the land right now, they can persuade the Russians to sell them what's under the land at a cheap price. For now.
Ivan says "nyet."
Ivan was unable to say "nyet" to the Ukes invading Russian territory.
Only our brilliant Ivy league educated neoconservative policy makers could have turned Russia and China into allies by expanding NATO to the Russian border.
I really don’t think China is interest in war because as Sun Tzu said wars cost much silver. So much easier to buy or lease than conquer.
China is however prepared for a war should a failing nation in the West seek one.
Is China’s foreign policy any different from our Manifest Destiny back in the days when we produced real goods?
They're not allies. They are in a mutual supporting relationship that is temporary. As this map demonstrates Russia and China have their own long term disputes.
Xi Jinping is the ruling authority in China. Xi has demonstrated repeatedly that he values ideological goals over economic growth. People really should start paying attention. This notion that China will not go to war to achieve bedrock ideological goals because it needs to preserve its growth rate is just wish casting.
How many nations has the US invaded or attacked or tried to overthrow compared to China?
Grenada. Haiti. Dominican Republic. Panama. Afghanistan. Iraq. Serbia. Libya. Syria. Lebanon. Venezuela. El Salvador. Nicaragua. Chile. Yemen. Did I miss anyone?
Do you consider WW I and II in a different category?
No offense intended, but I don't think that R. James was trying to make any sort of comparison between the US and the PRC.
I am just pointing out that the world sees us very differently than we see ourselves.
Fully understood, and I concur. I was just pointing out that your comment wasn’t relevant to R. James’ post. Nothing more. Peace.
At this time, however, PRC can milk the territories for their resources without having to govern them, which lets them keep up their soft approach to taking over all of those less-than-awake countries in the South Pacific on the down-low. Just like the period before Pearl Harbor, most Americans are totally asleep regarding current activity in the Pacific.
At the moment, there is some question about Xi being the ruler of China.
Who is ruling America? Not Biden.
I would agree, but that wasn't the subject.
The Russian Election Interference Hoax doesn't help.
Oh yeah! all the goodies China wants and needs lie to her WEST, NORTH, and southwest.
not out to sea to the east, southeast.
Go get em, China, 'n skip that naval stuff....
Looks like Tom Clancy strikes again.
he was prophetic about lots of things, but this one was easy, given distances, logistics and population densities
General Secretary Xinnie the Poo: "I've got a lot of problems with you people!!!"
Lebensraum with Chinese Characteristics.
Or....we WON'T be mixing in and let the Chinese and Russians settle it themselves.
At what point will the Russian bear use up all of its military resources in Ukraine and leave nothing for defense of the far east. Will it just be too big of a target for China to ignore? Way easier to take than Taiwan if just wanting to flex military might.
I keep wondering how much Russia has to keep back from Ukraine just to keep the internal situation in check and to keep the Chinese out. Nukes against a nuclear power are not that much of a threat especially if the limits of Chinese expansion are defined up front (see your map). Are you willing to exchange Moscow for Beijing just to keep some god forsaken far off acreage in Asia?
When? Um, now.
Russia is feeding all of its volunteer units into the Ukrainian meat grinder. If there are sizable Russian army formations in the Far East they are probably untrained conscripts.
They literally have an entire Northern Army that hasn't been committed anywhere. Some of the reserve units were sent to cut off the Uke's line of retreat from Kursk. That's it.
They may have been sent, but they haven't appeared yet, and it is not likely they will be able to cut the Ukrainian line of retreat.
Never. The answer to your absurd question is never.
Putin is certainly wishing that is the case.
Nothing like spurring warming relations with your now junior partner by telegraphing the fact you want to steal their stuff. Gives me hope for our team.
Maybe Xi thinks Russia will sell it to him? Afterall, Russia needs the Chinese to buy their commodities to keep their economy growing and fund the war effort.
So what the Russians are doing is destroying their armed forces in Ukraine, which they want - at least the eastern part, Donbass and Crimea - for its rich supplies of rare earth metals and petroleum/natural gas. Donbass has the second largest deposit of lithium ore in Europe, with lots of rare earth metals, oil, natural gas, and coal - then there are the exploratory wells in the Black Sea off of the Crimean coast and the coast of Krasnodar Krai. Vladimir Vladimirovich does hold a PhD in Natural Resource Economics (1997) from the St Petersburg Mining University, after all. And there are no problems with Siberian cold temps or permafrost, and there are at least two warmwater ports available... The Chinese have been doing their best to keep Russia "in the fight" but not winning the war, because that fits their plan just fine, eventually they can march right in and take the Russian Far East, and Russia won't be able to do anything about it...
I thought sanctions had destroyed the Russian economy.
LOL. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hUIUHrUlpmw The commieblock is in the usual bad repair but otherwise it looks pretty prosperous. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SqypiQcISQs - note that the average Russian wage before tax is about $700 per month. Rural areas are pretty bad off though - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tBNhLdD5bZU average pension is about $140 per month. So, no, the economy is by no means destroyed.
Being cut off from the bearings they need to to maintain their rail network has called into question their ability to maintain their transport net. At present it is getting hard. With the switch to a war economy, they are having labor shortages. Other imports they relied on are also in short supply. China is forcing Putin into a barter import economy as Chinese banks are not accepting payments from Russia.
While the economy is not destroyed, yet, it is on the way. Sanctions have been hurting, and it tends to show among the poorest areas first. Inflation is running about 9%, and that hurts no matter who you are. In a war economy, things can get away from the regime in unexpected ways.
The big difference between WW2 and now is the lack of western support. There is a joke going around about Putin having a seance and speaking with Stalin,
Putin: Comrade, Nazis are outside of Kursk again. What should I do?
Stalin: Just do what I did in 1943. Put the best Ukrainian troops in front, and ask the US for arms.
Who is Biden talking too?
The clouds?
Yeah, the big trouble they have is a bad shortage of experienced skilled labor - a lot of those people ended up in Ukraine, forever. Not even the sanctions on consumer good containing semiconductor chips work, due to resellers in India and other places, which act as "strawman buyers". I'd bet that China is targeting Russia with "debt trap diplomacy" and if Putin continues on this path, China is going to eat his lunch for him. As for civilian morale, in the areas populated by ethnic Russians, not much change except for that the youth aren't buying it for the most part - TV-watchers are still all in, but there are holes appearing in that, too: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zs2Bc58E9j4
America has its rural poverty and inner cities. So what do we do? Send billions to Ukraine.
Yes, and in the cities it is on the people in charge. If you look, it will almost always be the Democrats. In places like West Virginia, it is the result of better than 100 years with Democrats in charge.
WV ran a lot of business out of the state. They were well known as anti-business. That is just one example.
Not quite. We send thirty year old outdated and obsolete military materiel and weapons - stuff destined for the junkyard otherwise - and value it at its cost, not at the salvage value. The expense comes with replacing it with modern, state of the art materiel and weapons… which the US keeps. Here are a couple of squadrons' worth of F-16s waiting to be remade into target drones - which could be sent to Ukraine instead... https://www.airplaneboneyards.com/arizona-airplane-boneyards-storage.htm That might be a better use for them.
The Ukrainian invasion of Russia seems to be going as well as the Allied Passchendaele offensive of 1917. And that make sense because the previous Ukrainian invasion worked as well as the Allied Somme offensive of 1916.
It is nothing like Ypres. Not even close. The Ukrainians have not hit serious resistance yet.
Passchendaele went well at first.
The conditions are far, far different. It is maneuver warfare and is unlikely to change anytime soon.
I see the same future. Russian and Chinese alliance is one of temporary convivence. Xi is going to decide taking Taiwan may be too hard for now, but he will have to show some success. Taking back Russian land may be a lot easier.
Chinese land, barbarian!;)
There is some question about Xi being in charge at the moment.
Xi is no Biden