Russia, unlike almost all of the Western nations, is at least taking steps to counter demographic catastrophe. They encourage and incentivize families instead of consciously destroying them.
Like you, I'm not ready to count Russia out. They have a history of failing, regrouping and coming back harder. I'm sure the Finns and Germans and the Chechens could all tell more about that. Plus, the southern campaign seems to be going very well for them, I'm not convinced that the Kiev siege isn't a trap for the eyes and mind.
That said, I'm proud of what the Ukes have done defending their country.
I believe that you will find that ever since the days of Ivan the Terrible, Russia's primary internal and external goals have been the defense of the ethnic Russian heartland. This has resulted in a national paranoia. (see @ 7:20 and follow) I already knew that was their aim wrt Georgia and Crimea. Mr. Z just confirms that. Putin, as a product of the KGB, is steeped in that concept. As Sal pointed out recently, it is probably a bad idea to put a paranoid person's back against the wall (e.g., cutting off Japan's oil supply and their reaction to solve that problem by attacking Pearl Harbor and the Philippines). I have zero faith that this administration will approach any aspect of this problem in a thoughtful, effective way. I hope I'm wrong, but I'm batting 1.000 so far.
Like Mr. Edwards below, I believe they will come back. Their current strategy appears to me to be to capture far more territory than you really want so that you look generous when you pull back to lines with easily defendable flanks. This exercise was simply more expensive than Georgia or Crimea.
Additional thought [0820EDT/4/5/22] Don't forget the very open Polish Plain and Riga, Latvia. The Kaliningrad Oblast is hanging out there, wedged between Poland and Lithuania, and can act as a staging point for squeezing Lithuania and the Russian client/puppet, Belarus. Also, be aware of the Russian troops now bolstering the so-called Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic, another "breakaway" region of Moldova. Putin is actually quite predictable. He claimed the defense of ethnic Russians as the excuse for going into Georgia, Crimea, and Ukraine, so if SECSTATE and SECDEF are worth their salaries they should anticipate further "rescue missions".
Russia, unlike almost all of the Western nations, is at least taking steps to counter demographic catastrophe. They encourage and incentivize families instead of consciously destroying them.
Like you, I'm not ready to count Russia out. They have a history of failing, regrouping and coming back harder. I'm sure the Finns and Germans and the Chechens could all tell more about that. Plus, the southern campaign seems to be going very well for them, I'm not convinced that the Kiev siege isn't a trap for the eyes and mind.
That said, I'm proud of what the Ukes have done defending their country.
I believe that you will find that ever since the days of Ivan the Terrible, Russia's primary internal and external goals have been the defense of the ethnic Russian heartland. This has resulted in a national paranoia. (see @ 7:20 and follow) I already knew that was their aim wrt Georgia and Crimea. Mr. Z just confirms that. Putin, as a product of the KGB, is steeped in that concept. As Sal pointed out recently, it is probably a bad idea to put a paranoid person's back against the wall (e.g., cutting off Japan's oil supply and their reaction to solve that problem by attacking Pearl Harbor and the Philippines). I have zero faith that this administration will approach any aspect of this problem in a thoughtful, effective way. I hope I'm wrong, but I'm batting 1.000 so far.
Like Mr. Edwards below, I believe they will come back. Their current strategy appears to me to be to capture far more territory than you really want so that you look generous when you pull back to lines with easily defendable flanks. This exercise was simply more expensive than Georgia or Crimea.
Additional thought [0820EDT/4/5/22] Don't forget the very open Polish Plain and Riga, Latvia. The Kaliningrad Oblast is hanging out there, wedged between Poland and Lithuania, and can act as a staging point for squeezing Lithuania and the Russian client/puppet, Belarus. Also, be aware of the Russian troops now bolstering the so-called Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic, another "breakaway" region of Moldova. Putin is actually quite predictable. He claimed the defense of ethnic Russians as the excuse for going into Georgia, Crimea, and Ukraine, so if SECSTATE and SECDEF are worth their salaries they should anticipate further "rescue missions".