Russia's Last Gasp War?
the future belongs to those who show up
It's been a couple of years since we visited Peter Zeihan, and two weeks ago he posted a video that just pulls it all together to make a solid point about the pivot point the Russo-Ukrainian war is ... at least for the Russians.
The Ukrainian economic and demographic numbers are a nightmare on their own, but let's put that struggling people to the side for a moment and look at the Russians.
As interesting and informative are the tactical level efforts and changing "supply convoy" of the day pictures, the real interesting and informative to ponder are the larger movements in play; economics, geography, and demographics.
The real frightening part is at the end as it covers a topic we discussed in part on yesterday's Midrats; fertilizer.
The full video below is worth your time, but I want you to focus on the second half. It is only around six minutes.
I would just like to make one little note; I put a "?" in the title as I do not fully buy in to the quasi-presentism of "Russia will disappear."
Russia has a history that goes back in to the mists of time. She has come back from the Mongol invasions of the Middle Ages and the depredations of the first half of the 20th Century on to be stronger.
While it takes a generation or two to recover from the demographic hole she is in, it can be done. It requires a national "great awakening" that may never come for Russia - but I am not of a mind to count the Russians out. I don't think the future would be that easy, or boring.
Russia, unlike almost all of the Western nations, is at least taking steps to counter demographic catastrophe. They encourage and incentivize families instead of consciously destroying them.
Like you, I'm not ready to count Russia out. They have a history of failing, regrouping and coming back harder. I'm sure the Finns and Germans and the Chechens could all tell more about that. Plus, the southern campaign seems to be going very well for them, I'm not convinced that the Kiev siege isn't a trap for the eyes and mind.
That said, I'm proud of what the Ukes have done defending their country.
I believe that you will find that ever since the days of Ivan the Terrible, Russia's primary internal and external goals have been the defense of the ethnic Russian heartland. This has resulted in a national paranoia. (see @ 7:20 and follow) I already knew that was their aim wrt Georgia and Crimea. Mr. Z just confirms that. Putin, as a product of the KGB, is steeped in that concept. As Sal pointed out recently, it is probably a bad idea to put a paranoid person's back against the wall (e.g., cutting off Japan's oil supply and their reaction to solve that problem by attacking Pearl Harbor and the Philippines). I have zero faith that this administration will approach any aspect of this problem in a thoughtful, effective way. I hope I'm wrong, but I'm batting 1.000 so far.
Like Mr. Edwards below, I believe they will come back. Their current strategy appears to me to be to capture far more territory than you really want so that you look generous when you pull back to lines with easily defendable flanks. This exercise was simply more expensive than Georgia or Crimea.
Additional thought [0820EDT/4/5/22] Don't forget the very open Polish Plain and Riga, Latvia. The Kaliningrad Oblast is hanging out there, wedged between Poland and Lithuania, and can act as a staging point for squeezing Lithuania and the Russian client/puppet, Belarus. Also, be aware of the Russian troops now bolstering the so-called Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic, another "breakaway" region of Moldova. Putin is actually quite predictable. He claimed the defense of ethnic Russians as the excuse for going into Georgia, Crimea, and Ukraine, so if SECSTATE and SECDEF are worth their salaries they should anticipate further "rescue missions".