I'd put money on the US scuttling away before I think Sleepy Joe would start tossing nukes, even a low yield demonstrator.
The thought of this bunch being "in the big seat" is frightening, and the more its contemplated, the more alarming the idea.
The reinforcement of Europe is relatively a joke from the days of the 1980's when (plus or minus) about a third of the Active Army was in Europe and most of that was constituted of Heavy Forces. Instead of talking about a Corps level operation, we talk about Brigades. The Soviets of the late 70's were reputed to be ten feet tall and bulletproof. By the 80's we got better and bigger guns and essentially dared then to come. Again, the recent fears were that with our lack of forces in Europe, that the Soviets... errr, Russians would come hurtling our of Eurasia and take back Eastern Europe and whatever they wanted of the West... until it became clear that, again, they were not the hordes we feared in the 70's.
I do think there's something gone sideways with Putin. He's not the old efficient KGB hand that he was and our folks, well... they're just the taxi squad. Hopefully things won't get out of hand before we both find some professionals to run things again.
For a demonstration shot location my thoughts have been loitering on a high airburst out over the Baltic off Kaliningrad as an "our territory" fig leaf, while being close enough to be seen by mk I eyeball by NATO, especially those uppity Poles and the Baltic States.
For something more obscured maybe a "test" out over the Caspian where they can publicly deny and spin it backchannel as Those Wascawwy Mullahs while still getting their international shock value and putting the skeer into Foggy Bottom.
If Russia does announce it's theirs, I do think we'll rapidly hear the screen door slamming as India and China fully bail on The Shirtless Tsar's newest follies.
A demonstration 'shot' would be weak gruel. Not much gain and plenty of risks. A low-yield tactical weapon against a military target would be similar. Modest at best military gains, potentially large social and economic costs. A 'large' nuclear strike would have v large repercussions for the Russian state. Of what kind? Right now, sanctions globally are actually pretty leaky. For all the media talk, Russian state businesses are still conducting a lot of transactions. China and India have not yet jumped on the bandwagon.
A Russian nuclear weapon use would likely solidify the claim that V Putin is a true danger to the system and would likely (to these eyes) lead to consolidation of the coalition against him. Russian people would become true pariahs. That would be the tipping point for resistance within Russia.
If western countries were to seize all Russian assets in western banks and block all Russian foreign transactions, the impact on Russian society and the wealthy oligarchs would be large. Would that induce them to back down? Maybe not. The next escalation step by NATO would then be an escalation against Russian forces using PGMs against Russian ADA and rocket forces. We are a long, punishing way away from a nuclear exchange.
Very good comments about Russian options, my primary worry is about the coherenece and rapidity of the American response which is what will be critical for dealing with this crisis and unfortunately the quality of that response is going to rest on Joe Biden.
Biden has done some very strange and worrisome actions since he has become president. His disregard of his advisors' advice regarding Afghanistan, his numerous inflammatory Berlin Wall-esque statements regarding Putin and also Taiwan which his staff has had to walk back, and his MAGA semi-fascist speech. Throw in if you like the March 2021 meeting he had with historians who encouraged his to be the next FDR with his own New Deal. Joe Biden always had an ago, a chip on his shoulder, that worried me if he ever got his life-long wish to be president. However now you see that ego, supercharged with his mental decline and the bad judgment noted by Gates, leading to what seems to his desire to be seen as a world historical figure off to slay dragons foreign and domestic.
That desire is worrisome enough but what happens in the middle of an immediate crisis requiring a response in terms of a day if not hours? Any coherent leadership decision will have to be made the American president. Which Joe are you going to get? Sleepy Joe or the Joe "Berlin Wall This Man Cannot Remain in Power"? A man who sees the choices facing him in terms of his ego and not in terms of his sacred responsibility? Contrast that with how Trump acted in a moment of crisis when Iran shot down one of our UAVs
So the use of a nuclear weapon may very well provoke a leadership crisis within the White House, perhaps even to the extent of use of the 25th Amendment, as we reach the limits of the "putting a lid on it" presidency.
I'm not sure the average Russian sees this as a war of conquest. The impression I get from Russian sources is that most Russian people buy the Kremlin's position that they're engaged in an unavoidable defensive conflict to protect the country from yet another invasion from the west.
While this may not be in any way true, that doesn't really matter. The Russians have a lot of history with this kind of thing and it's probably pretty easy to activate the "Defend Mother Russia" module in the average Russian.
Consider the US invasion of Iraq. We had full backing of the press and the public for that action, for years, based on some shaky intel on WMDs. Rally around the flag is a powerful thing.
No reason to expect different from Russians. Particularly since this conflict is so close to home.
I think the Russians are rattling the nuclear saber in anticipation of absorbing the breakaway republics that are holding referenda right now. Once they vote to join Russia, Russia will consider them part of its territory. From that perspective, any future offensive by UKR against the breakaway republics would be considered a direct attack on Russia. And, as politicians like to say, all options are on the table.
I'd put money on the US scuttling away before I think Sleepy Joe would start tossing nukes, even a low yield demonstrator.
The thought of this bunch being "in the big seat" is frightening, and the more its contemplated, the more alarming the idea.
The reinforcement of Europe is relatively a joke from the days of the 1980's when (plus or minus) about a third of the Active Army was in Europe and most of that was constituted of Heavy Forces. Instead of talking about a Corps level operation, we talk about Brigades. The Soviets of the late 70's were reputed to be ten feet tall and bulletproof. By the 80's we got better and bigger guns and essentially dared then to come. Again, the recent fears were that with our lack of forces in Europe, that the Soviets... errr, Russians would come hurtling our of Eurasia and take back Eastern Europe and whatever they wanted of the West... until it became clear that, again, they were not the hordes we feared in the 70's.
I do think there's something gone sideways with Putin. He's not the old efficient KGB hand that he was and our folks, well... they're just the taxi squad. Hopefully things won't get out of hand before we both find some professionals to run things again.
For a demonstration shot location my thoughts have been loitering on a high airburst out over the Baltic off Kaliningrad as an "our territory" fig leaf, while being close enough to be seen by mk I eyeball by NATO, especially those uppity Poles and the Baltic States.
For something more obscured maybe a "test" out over the Caspian where they can publicly deny and spin it backchannel as Those Wascawwy Mullahs while still getting their international shock value and putting the skeer into Foggy Bottom.
If Russia does announce it's theirs, I do think we'll rapidly hear the screen door slamming as India and China fully bail on The Shirtless Tsar's newest follies.
A demonstration 'shot' would be weak gruel. Not much gain and plenty of risks. A low-yield tactical weapon against a military target would be similar. Modest at best military gains, potentially large social and economic costs. A 'large' nuclear strike would have v large repercussions for the Russian state. Of what kind? Right now, sanctions globally are actually pretty leaky. For all the media talk, Russian state businesses are still conducting a lot of transactions. China and India have not yet jumped on the bandwagon.
A Russian nuclear weapon use would likely solidify the claim that V Putin is a true danger to the system and would likely (to these eyes) lead to consolidation of the coalition against him. Russian people would become true pariahs. That would be the tipping point for resistance within Russia.
If western countries were to seize all Russian assets in western banks and block all Russian foreign transactions, the impact on Russian society and the wealthy oligarchs would be large. Would that induce them to back down? Maybe not. The next escalation step by NATO would then be an escalation against Russian forces using PGMs against Russian ADA and rocket forces. We are a long, punishing way away from a nuclear exchange.
Joe Cirincione is near-perfectly wrong, always.
Very good comments about Russian options, my primary worry is about the coherenece and rapidity of the American response which is what will be critical for dealing with this crisis and unfortunately the quality of that response is going to rest on Joe Biden.
Biden has done some very strange and worrisome actions since he has become president. His disregard of his advisors' advice regarding Afghanistan, his numerous inflammatory Berlin Wall-esque statements regarding Putin and also Taiwan which his staff has had to walk back, and his MAGA semi-fascist speech. Throw in if you like the March 2021 meeting he had with historians who encouraged his to be the next FDR with his own New Deal. Joe Biden always had an ago, a chip on his shoulder, that worried me if he ever got his life-long wish to be president. However now you see that ego, supercharged with his mental decline and the bad judgment noted by Gates, leading to what seems to his desire to be seen as a world historical figure off to slay dragons foreign and domestic.
That desire is worrisome enough but what happens in the middle of an immediate crisis requiring a response in terms of a day if not hours? Any coherent leadership decision will have to be made the American president. Which Joe are you going to get? Sleepy Joe or the Joe "Berlin Wall This Man Cannot Remain in Power"? A man who sees the choices facing him in terms of his ego and not in terms of his sacred responsibility? Contrast that with how Trump acted in a moment of crisis when Iran shot down one of our UAVs
So the use of a nuclear weapon may very well provoke a leadership crisis within the White House, perhaps even to the extent of use of the 25th Amendment, as we reach the limits of the "putting a lid on it" presidency.
Are we sure Russian resolve is slipping?
I'm not sure the average Russian sees this as a war of conquest. The impression I get from Russian sources is that most Russian people buy the Kremlin's position that they're engaged in an unavoidable defensive conflict to protect the country from yet another invasion from the west.
While this may not be in any way true, that doesn't really matter. The Russians have a lot of history with this kind of thing and it's probably pretty easy to activate the "Defend Mother Russia" module in the average Russian.
Consider the US invasion of Iraq. We had full backing of the press and the public for that action, for years, based on some shaky intel on WMDs. Rally around the flag is a powerful thing.
No reason to expect different from Russians. Particularly since this conflict is so close to home.
I think the Russians are rattling the nuclear saber in anticipation of absorbing the breakaway republics that are holding referenda right now. Once they vote to join Russia, Russia will consider them part of its territory. From that perspective, any future offensive by UKR against the breakaway republics would be considered a direct attack on Russia. And, as politicians like to say, all options are on the table.