It is posts like this from you which are particularly depressing. With every politician expounding on the need for another $13B in Israel or $60B in Ukraine, it is not isolationist to say that a targeted spending bill is needed here/now to light our own boiler for expansion of shipbuilding capacity for USN/USCG (assuming we can even crew the ships) and resolve the vital maritime logistics issues which have been brought into sharp relief these last years.
We haven't got the shipyards and drydocks to build and repair the hulls we need, nor can we recruit the bodies to crew them, nor can we manufacture the weapons to arm them, nor (apparently) can we logically train the crews we do have to avoid collisions at sea.
Barring a wholesale flushing of admirals and bureaucrats, plus a demolition and rebuild of the promotion & acquisition systems, we are doomed to defeat.
while there is shipbuilding capacity in the mid/small size area (all those shipyard building supply boats on the gulf coast) what there is a paucity of are steel and advanced technology equipment production. The last thirty years have destroyed our heavy industrial capacity. But it doesn't matter, the damage is done and it's too late to do anything before the Chinese act. the calendar isn't their friend either and if they do something it has to be soon, like next 12-24 months it's not happening and I'm sure they know this too. Whether or not they do in DC or Langley remains to be seen.
Unfortunately for us China's population and economic problems will not be sufficient to restrict their power projection in the near term. It may save us in ten years, but we need to deter them for that long.
Concur. They will have a relatively narrow demographic window to make their move. They know this. They also know that they're not likely to get a more dysfunctional US government than the ones a certain party favors. Compliance or defeat is how this will end. Elections do have consequences, no doubt.
Next 12-24 months? Why do you think their window is so short? They probably have a good eight years of runway before things start trending in our direction again.
He assumes we will get our act together and people will realize those who try and divide us might as well be considered an agent of our adversary. Let's hope.
Chairman Winnie the Pooh thanks you for your revolutionary struggle, wumao. You get five social credit points and a weekend pass to leave your neighborhood and travel up to 20 km.
The flags are too stupid to realize that the cancer rot of cultural Marxism and DEI has led to a catastrophic collapse in recruiting. They literally accused their largest source of warm bodies and seed crop of being racists, rapists and extremists. Generational family members with a rich history of service are simply encouraging their children to pursue other professions and other opportunities. Why volunteer to serve an institution that hates you? It’s really that simple. But at least Sailors can walk around with their hands in their pockets. That will fix everything.
They can’t see it because that would force a self examination and they aren’t intellectually honest with themselves. As Ron White said: “you can’t fix stupid”.
Lol really? You may trust your children with this current crop of flags. I won’t. Lots of examples why, EAU - Forced vaccine, Kabul, Benghazi, LCS, Fat Leonard, DEI directorate, the list is long.
As for the smart Californians who saw the rot, don’t blame them because you were slow on the draw to leave and now likely can’t sell. California was becoming a lost cause in the 80’s. Stevie Wonder could see it. Now it’s a socialist paradise. The people leaving immediately change their car license plates and registration. Even they know they smell like shit.
Are you nuts? A hovel in this state escalates price faster than most of the rest of the country. Its the primary means enabling those leaving. Move to another state and have the cushy house.
The Alamo was a victory of sorts because it held back the Mexican army at a critical time and then became a rallying cry for Sam Houston's later victory at San Jacinto. At least so says this Texican.
The flags aren’t stupid. They know. They also know that if they say anything they will be sacked and not get a cushy job with some contractor. You try living in Reston on your half pay pension with a kid in college.
The Navy doesn't have Civil Air Patrol for mariners nor is JROTC of a naval ilk anywhere I've seen it. Between that and disquals from digitized health records we shoot ourselves in the foot even before getting to what old guys think is important from their news feed.
There is Naval JROTC at Kinnick HS in Yokosuka. Arguing anything other than DEI is causing all the recruiting issues on this site is a waste of time, Everybody already knows nobody is enlisting because of drag queen story hour at the base library and the pride parades all hands are forced to attend..
Send him out here to a ship homeported in WESTPAC. I'll check in on him from time to time. The USN out here still has a mission and while it's been tamed down a little bit, Haircut Jr. will get some life experiences all his own (if you know what I mean).
You don’t seem to get it. I’m not alone when I say the current military leadership and civilian government isn’t trustworthy for me to recommend my son serve. They have squandered that trust at places like Benghazi, Kabul and right here at home with the illegal vax mandates. All the while calling him a racist, rapist and extremist. Why serve in that environment?
Aiding a democracy invaded by our enemy Russia is not a waste of funds, nor is it incompatible with building a strong Navy. Aiding a democracy attacked by the kleptocracy next door is not incompatible with building a strong navy.
If you are an isolationist, who wants to hunker down inside a fortified border; you need a powerful navy. If you are an interventionist, who wants the US engaged and involved worldwide, you need a powerful navy. If you think the US is the shining city on the hill, a beacon to the world, you need a powerful navy.
What we have is a pile of debt and a rapidly dwindling reputation for repaying our debts on time. Tell me what you think will happen to the dwindling strength of the U.S. dollar – and to our ability to keep borrowing – when Uncle Sam finally misses a payment.
Nonsense. We are the richest nation in the world! Of course we can pay to kill invading Russian soldiers in Ukraine and build ships here at home. US economic growth has progressed at a significant pace over the course of 2023. In the third quarter of 2023 private manufacturing construction investment reached its highest level on record since 1958. Monthly nonfarm payrolls grew by 232,000 per month on average in 2023, 55,000 more jobs per month than the average pace in 2018 and 2019. After peaking in summer 2022, inflation has been on a downward trend for a year and a half thanks to a retreat of food, energy, and goods inflation.
All this "woe is us," defeatism is annoying. Annoying and wrong.
The inflation rate is in a downward trend. But prices continue to rise and are still above the target rate of 2%. We've seen 17% average price rise over the last three years. It is not all sunny uplands.
The biggest DIB threat to naval readiness is the lack of shipyards and repair facilities and I see no effort to arrest that trend.
Also...we are paying high interst on this increasing debt. There is no "nonesense" at all with these warnings, Tom. Yes, we are a rich nation on relative terms, but we still need to face the facts of our current budgets and debt. Our nation's leadership has to start making the tough decisions instead of kicking the can down the road. Balance our national security objectives with the financial resources we have. We are going into an era of "scarcity" with a dwindling capacity to maintain our control of the seas. Lack of shipyards, lack of talent, lack of ships, which will ultimately lead to reduced resilient power to deal with a near peer adversary. Our adversaries are watching.
Not to mention that we're paying higher interest rates because of the FED's efforts to combat high inflation rates, which were caused by Biden's ridiculous spending during his first year in office. Back when many of his advisors would expound on modern monetary theory and deny that the risk of high inflation was even something that modern economies had to worry about. Talk about getting smack upside the head with reality.
I think it's a matter of priorities, Tom, assuming the current administration has any. You don't have to be MAGA to think resources and will should be directed at the US border. It is an invasion, as well, and it will cripple us for generations. Personally, I'm all about making the Russian armed forces pay a generational price, but not at the expense of our nation's coffers. Israel deserves support, NATO can piss off until they get with the program, and Ukraine should get something but not the generous aid package proposed. If anything, we should husband our resources and give conditionally. The real world is transactional.
Just how "foreign" is a nation whom Ukraine was part of for several hundred years and with whom a significant percentage of the population shares the same language and culture? Like saying Virginia et al. were attacked by a foreign invader in 1860.
Richest nation. 34 trillion in debt. Have you driven on the US95? Take the Acela from DC to NYC and look at Baltimore. Worse than Hiroshima 1945. Yet we pour money down the Ukrainian drain
Place some blame - isn't that our fault, as Americans? We let our own cities and towns, as you state, look like an atomic bomb hit them. Nobody's fault but our own. Just like a navy requires capital, so does infrastructure. Capital = taxes so that's why we won't do squat about it either.
What do you think will happen to the dwindling strength of the U.S. dollar – and to our ability to keep borrowing – when Uncle Sam finally misses a payment?
Yes, the USD will probably drop to record lows when Congress finally does nothing and lets the US default on its debt for stupid political reasons.
The dollar does seem to be doing pretty well in one foreign exchange market. It is way up on the other bellwether currency in the world, the Japanese yen. A 500ml bottle of Kirin beer is now under 2 bucks. Way to go USD!
It's impossible to miss a payment when you can print/create all the money you want. The problem comes when the creditor won't accept the form of payment. Countries like Argentina, Mexico, etc. don't go bankrupt because they miss a payment, they go bankrupt because their creditors don't accept pesos as payment; they want dollars (or gold), and Argentina, Mexico, etc. can't print dollars.
We can't even build ships on schedule in the US and no amount of throwing money at our current shipbuilding yards is going to change that. All our current yards are behind in delivering ships for a multitude of reasons, but primarily because of a lack of qualified tradespeople. Those craftsmen don't grow on trees. Meanwhile, while we dither, the Ukrainians are busy killing one of our mortal enemies. Want ROI? Give the Ukrainians the arms they need to kill as many Bolsheviks as possible while we spend a decade (or longer) trying to untangle the fur ball that is the US ship building industry. But I already know the reasons we won't give to Ukraine - it's not our war glug glug, the current administration blah blah, we're in debt wank wank, Ukraine is a kleptocracy uhh uhh. Taylor Swift wants us to give to Ukraine so we're not going to poo poo. 'Murica.
Wow. I have been coming to this site since the mid 2000's. I mostly lurk, and I have read many of your comments in the past, so I know you are a real person and not a troll. For the life of me, I can't understand, after reading your posts for so many years, why you would post something as stupid as this. Hopefully it's the bourbon talking. Dumb, just dumb.
Or maybe that was a rhetorical question. If so I'd be happy to explain why they are a mortal enemy in 1000 words or less.
No. Not bourbon speak. Lol. Way to try to marginalize my opinion. I don’t see Russia as a mortal enemy. I chased their subs all around the Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea when they were the Soviet. I recognized the communist threat as evil and what it did to the subjugated. That was also 40 years past. They tossed off their own yokes and that’s their affair. The world is better off without communism and particularly the Soviet Union. This isn’t the old Soviet. I also have had the grace to adopt my son from a former Soviet republic. I accept the Russians for what they are. My thinking on the Russians has matured and changed as many cold warriors have. We MISSED. A fucking huge opportunity to make a final prosperous peace with the Russians in 97-99. Instead? We needed a strawman. A “mortal” enemy. I literally rode around Red Fucking Square in a 1997 Jeep Grand Cherokee. Our driver was so proud of the future relationship between America and Russia. Notice no communist bullshit. Just a desire to be friends.
Is Russia a threat? Possibly because we must make them one. Have you ever talked to a rank and file Russian? I have. They have calloused hands and a warm smile.
Ukraine has herself to blame for her predicament. It’s NOT A FUCKING NATO nation and has no rights under any treaty we are obliged to. All we have done is facilitate a couple of Ukraine generations to death under the jingoism of “better there than here” or “we are killing Russian cheaply and with others lives”. Really? Where the fuck is the moral imperative or even the Christian honesty in trying to reconcile that we are doing as God’s work? What we are doing doesn’t do shit for the American people, has no basis in moral values by encouraging more blood letting and has zero national interest. At least I can be honest about it. So yes please enlighten me with your 1,000 words.
Russia isn’t a mortal enemy. They aren’t the Soviet Union.
How many jobs and factories did we lose to Russia as opposed to China?
I think future historians will regard our antagonizing Russia and driving her in to the arms of China as one of the greatest strategic blunders in American history.
Obama and Biden undid Nixon's greatest accomplishment of separating our adversaries. Now we are facing the entire Eurasian landmass.
I don't think Iran would have launched the most recent attacks without the tacit approval of its big brothers in Moscow and Beijing. In the past Russia might have restrained Iran. No more.
You are correct. I think the squandered opportunity was by design. It’s easier for the MIC to sell shit when they have an enemy. Back in 95-99, China wasn’t a credible enemy yet (although Xi and his gang had big plans). So to keep the gravy train rolling, we pointed fingers at Russia until the Islamic fucks showed up and occupied our attention for the next 25 years until the China Communists got their shit together.
Russia was Russia. No surprises and we could and should have negotiated honestly instead of trying to pick a fight when none was warranted.
You were always the least liked character on the "A"Team. There, I said it. I don't shill for anybody and I stand by my comment that your comment was dumb.
OK, I will explain why the Soviets are a mortal enemy, and they are the Soviets because their leader is of that commie ilk. Since 1945 the Soviets have done everything in their power to bring a downfall of the West. The Korean War, Vietnam War and Afghanistan War are all examples of where the Soviets have fought proxy wars against the US. Should I mention the Cuban Missile Crisis and their efforts to destabilize Central America? How about their shenanigans in Eastern Europe after WWII? Any of this ringing a bell? I could give two sh1ts how their hands feel or how they smile. They have nukes pointed at us, so therefore they are a mortal enemy. I am sure Comrade Putin enjoys your twisted Orwellian thought process though.
Have you ever talked to a rank and file Chinese?
Guess I better go back to lurking. I must be too dickish and out of touch to post here.
Lol. Least liked character. That’s not a metric because I’m just a haircut. Well after 20 some odd years I said something that you didn’t agree with is a good batting average. No hard feelings.
They aren’t the “Soviets” any longer. Now you’re the one being dumb. Stupid in fact. But that’s your prerogative.
Yes. I have spoken to Chinese. They are an existential threat. You’re picking the wrong “mortal enemy” but double down on that all you want. Russia is not the Soviet Union. An oligarchy? Absolutely but then again the same could be said about the current government we are possessed with. You failed to convince me in your less than 1000 words. I’m too deep in my cups to count them. I’ll take your word for it.
You do realize that you are literally describing Soviet Union Cold War actions and offer nothing new since the collapse of the Soviet Union. How many Napoleonic Grenadiers are buried in Ukraine?
"Since 1945 the Soviets have done everything in their power to bring a downfall of the West. "
Wrong. Since about 1918. And the important question is WHY? They certainly had no intentions of destroying the west before then, so what changed? We have fought actual wars against Germany (2) and Japan; why are they not "mortal enemies"?
Sometimes we don’t all cheer lead for the same team. I make it a habit of going against conventional wisdom. I don’t let emotions tell me what to do. Also don’t watch sportsball. So….
I was wrong about you being a bourbon man, but I'll bet you're a Swiftie at heart. Come on now, you know deep down, after you get past that gruff exterior, you have to admit you can't get enough of Taylor and Travis. If you deny it, your denial just proves how much of a Swiftie you are. Prove me wrong.
So Russia existing as nation state for centuries up until the Bolsheviks had their 80 years of fuckery means every Russian, man, woman and child is a mortal enemy? Got it. Time to ask congress for a gazallion dollars. You know, to save posterity from the Russian hordes.
Actually, it was the lack of children of the younger Boomers that was the problem. Not to mention the teaching and culture the Boomers gave to the generations that they raised. Those bemoaning the lack of values and fitness of the younger generations need to start looking hard at what they were taught and by whom.
I live in a city with thousands of incredible smart, competitive kids and have never once seen someone in uniform in this town yet alone a recruiting office. Just checked. There is no Navy recruiting office. Over 300k people.
Have a former SeaBee S-i-L who did 3 years of recruiting in the PNW area and his final 7 years as a career recruiter (NC) there. He had quotas to fill. He also had color, ethnicity and gender numbers that were important. e.g. He had half a dozen White men with STEM degrees wanting to be Navy Nuke Officers but he had to find two Hispanic women first before putting the men in ahead of them. Those guys got tired of being on the waiting list and sought careers elsewhere. I am wondering, Andy, what the demographics are in your 300K town. Think I know the answer. Skip to 00:37 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=532j-186xEQ
I have started thinking about what the differences would be if the Chinese bring the fight to the Eastern Pacific/US mainland as opposed to the US bringing the fight to China.
We have basically no penetration of China (or Iran) since CIA arrogance and laziness got all the agents in China and Iran killed. How many container ships a day do we or Mexico get from China? What will tell us that the ship has containers full of cruise missiles or MRBMs before they launch?
Agree with your first sentence. Second sentence- I've no idea. Third sentence- I do not think there is any way we can tell until after the vessel launches the missiles.
That’s blasphemy! And yet very correct. They will certainly reach west conus with DF41’s and their massive guerrilla army already here.
We won’t bring a large fight to China. We will be steam rolled the first days and weeks. We will be left stunned by the damage and the seminal questions will remain? Why didn’t we see it coming and why didn’t we stop it!!?
Just finished reading The Attack, Mr. T. You and Kurt Schlichter get to say, "Told ya so". Not to rub it in, but to rally the survivors to build The Wall on the West Coast.
I hate to be right. But I can’t see any other logical conclusion to how it will go down. I won’t be saying I was right after it starts - I’ll be shooting PLA soldiers…
I wonder if we have the resources to clear the narrows in our major Naval ports if the Chinese decide to sink/scuttle a number of container ships in those ports. What if they just mine the major ports, do we have the right resources to clear them? If I was the Chinese I would not limit an attack on the US to just the Pacific ports. I would do my best to bottle up Norfolk, Mayport, Groton and others on the East Cost as well. If you could bottle up the ships and shut down the Panama Canal you would buy yourself a lot of time.
My suspicion is that the SEALs and the marine mammals could clear the San Diego channel and port of mines in a reasonable period. Days, not weeks. But those could be very important days. And it depends on how the mines get detected. Is it a Dole container ship, a car carrier or a CVN?
Come on least favorite haircut from the "A" team there is one thing you have to remember - our sh1t works. Their sh1t is based off Soviet sh1t that doesn't work. They won't be pushovers mind you, but arming Taiwan to the teeth and then pulling the ROK's, JMSDF and the Aussies into the fight equals PLAN sunk and PLA swimming back to mainland jina.
Yes, we will finally get our hair messed up a bit, but it won't be "The Man in the High Tower". It'll suck to be in Japan, ROK, Guam, Hawaii and the West Coast but what're you going to do? Not fight?
Do have evidence that Chinese gear doesn't work. China is not Russia. How many Russian TV's do Americans buy, vs how many Chinese TV's we buy. Same for computers, cell phones and other high tech gear that works just fine. I don't think that an American has been allowed on a current gen Chinese warship. They look sharp.
Dude literally 90% of everything in your household is made in China. To presume their shit doesn’t work is just retarded. It’s comforting to claim their old “Soviet designed “ shit won’t work. That’s foolish.
I believe draft "avoiding" is more accurate. Same difference as tax-dodging vs. tax avoidance. If I recall correctly, Trump had actual deferments. As opposed to Bill Clinton, for example, who received two draft notices and failed to report.
What-about-ism is never a good look; particularly when your example left office almost a quarter of a century ago. President Bonespur is a coward. A proven coward.
"our sh1t works. Their sh1t is based off Soviet sh1t that doesn't work. "
Tell that to the pilots who flew over N. Vietnam and tried to shoot down Migs with Sparrow missiles or destroy ground targets with Bullpup missiles while dodging SAMs and flak. Or even something as simple as a rifle; the early M-16 vs. AK, for example. Etc. A lot of people from a lot of countries have died because they Knew "our sh1t works, theirs doesn't".
The one aspect of "American Exceptionalism" that doesn't turn my stomach is geography. We who are fortunate enough to call ourselves "Americans" really are blessed with a miraculous homeland, now as much as any time in history. We have geographically large and generally friendly neighbors to our North and South, and the best neighbors one could ever dream of to the East and West (aka, big ass oceans). We are able to produce (and for the most part, refine) all the energy in all the forms we need to satisfy our own energy requirements. Same with food. We have some weaknesses (chips and their raw inputs is high on the list, for now), but overall America at home is in a massively stronger position than America abroad today.
Honestly, China getting waaaaay out over her skis by trying to bring the fight to us, rather than consolidating and expanding power in their own backyard is one of the few ways I can see the next 5-10 years playing out very very differently.
Our neighbors to the North and South are equally blessed that they have us rather than China on their contiguous border. Not that you will ever hear that expressed by their elected leaders. The US is the root of all evil dont'cha know.
yea for sure. same thing applies more broadly around the globe. If/when China ever does supplant the US on the global stage, it will be the start of some truly unpleasant times for many who bemoaned the terrible west for years beforehand.
Porfirio Diaz was a tinpot dictator whose authoritarian rule caused the Mexican Civil War that destroyed Mexico and from which it still has not fully recovered.
I'm sure he would, and i'm sure he's even got some legitimate gripes he could conjure up (if he weren't, ya know, dead). But here's the thing: the US is kind of like capitalism. It's not the best nation to ever lead the world, just the least worst of all the ones who have tried it so far.
"Many forms of Government have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.…"
Probably my hottest high-level take is that democracy (as it exists in the US today) has had its moment in the sun and is on the way out. Birthright citizenship + universal franchise + rise of the welfare state is a bad recipe. One of those 3 ingredients needs to change, and I don't think the welfare state is going away anytime soon.
China is not foolish enough to bring the fight to our shores. Not directly as in ships off our coast, amphibs coming onto our shores. I do believe there are hundreds if not thousands of Chinese military types that came in thru the open southern border and will cause havoc if there is a fight.
Not likely IMHO, what I think WILL happen are limited strikes designed to bottle up the fleet with minimal casualties. So sinking a container ship in the jetties at Apra, Pearl and Yokosuka. Given the strategic importance of those locations US naval response to a Chinese invasion would be hampered but minimal (or optimally no) civilian casualties gives coverage to those against a war with China to delay delay delay a response. If a war is prolonged there are good odds that Guam will be occupied or at the very least see the airfields and ports damaged to the point the humanitarian crisis of famine in Guam could become the primary issue facing the sitting President and not Taiwan. I'm not optimistic. If you have family in the WestPac you should send them home.
You are looking at possible Chinese military action through a western lens. China will have zero reason to “limit” any strike when they go hot. They know they have one major preemptive shot to knock us back on our heels. This blog has demonstrated and curated our decline and their rise for almost 21 years….
If they are committed to war and know from their spies, agents (Hi Gen Milley!) and our public discussions that our plans include strikes on the mainland they have no reason not to preempt by attacking the assets we need to fight China first.
The significant numbers issue is that the current >300 ship force is just too small, given our weakened naval maintenance and repair infrastructure, to keep 1/3 of the fleet constantly deployed and still do all of the maintenance, repair, training and crew rest needed to sustain that pace. The navy either needs to get bigger or cut back on deployments. We know the answer that will be given to that proposition however, yet there is still no plan to grow the size, especially that of the low-end fleet to help sustain the shuttle run deployment process the fleet has been doing since 1948. Instead we hear that numbers do not matter and that its all the fault of industry.
Nothing. It says nothing. I was an Animal Science major and attended a large, state land grant university. That course of study didn't keep me from being an effective Naval Officer though. Actually, being an Animal Science major helped me understand and relate to Boatswain's Mates and Gunner's Mates better. STEM for non-nuke Naval Officers is overrated.
I do know about them. I am onboard USN vessels most days. I was a SWO as well. The BDS is strong with you. You tried to get a dig in, but couldn't help yourself and left your garbage politics all over the place.
Please look above, Pete. Animal Science is a thing. The best D/H I ever worked for had a degree in American Studies. It was the Navy's loss when that LCDR got the calling to become a Catholic lay brother (vows & all). He now is somewhat like a FOGO in his order. No longer a sailor, but a fisher of men.
I am a book junkie when it comes to RN novels set in the Napoleonic Wars. I like their officer accession model. Well, maybe except being a Midshipman. OCS took me with iffy majors. I was a middie for 4 days as a former Senior Chief...most horrid 4 decades of my life. Wasn't worried so much about "passing for Lieutenant" being a 16 year Navy man myself at the time and having plenty of ops and CIC experience, but having to be a Midshipman living in the orlop and that lo-ong wait from snot-nose noob to a vacant Lieutenancy and last in line owing to little "influence" or pedigree...it'd be a tough row to hoe. But then why should it be otherwise?
I really question our Naval education models when I look at guys like Beatty, Fisher, Jellicoe, Keyes, Mountbatten, etc. who began their careers at age 13 or so. What are kids getting for all their extra schooling? Higher self-esteem?
When I was Chief aboard a Frigate my DIVO Ensign was an Animal Science major (then called "Animal Husbandry"). The poor guy was hapless. Despite mentoring, he never "got it". The Captain, instead of promoting him to LTjg sent him to Fleet Weather Center, Hawaii to finish out his 4 years. I liked my DIVO, helped him the best I could and the kid really tried, but because the Captain was down on him his wardroom brethren treated him like a leper. For the longest time I got a chuckle out of "Animal Husbandry" because of the "husbandry" part... as in WTF...men and sheep. Then some 20 years later my eldest daughter graduated from a large, state land grant university with a degree in Animal Science (w/ minors in Spanish, Portuguese and Ag finance.) Following that, it was an MS in Dairy Science and PhD in Food Science. All those are STEM and she is a no-kidding scientist doing important work for big bucks now. If you ever meet my daughter be sure to address her as "Doctor", m'kay. No more chuckling here. So, Animal Science, Kuso. Huzzah.
Side note: My degrees are in psych, humanities and social studies. Please notice I spelled them in small letters. All obtained off-duty and in mostly night and weekend classes that were available between sea tours. The goal was always to become better credentialed and thereby promote to a job that allowed a bigger footprint. But being non-STEM AF I only got CWO, LDO and Asphalt Inspector out of it. But it did give me the paycheck to send my two girls to 15 years of college between them, and to good jobs, happiness, productive lives.
One of the dumbest (and most dangerous) Lieutenants (02) I knew had a Master's from a very good school. After a couple of weeks as a platoon leader he got bounced to Bn. where he lasted another couple of weeks before they bounced him to Saigon. STEM or other, it's not the degree that makes a good officer. Frankly, you don't even have to be particularly "intelligent". Character, common sense, and a good attitude are more important.
We need to return to the days when ADM Jim Holloway could stand in Congressional testimony and say that the Defense Secretary was wrong in his call for fewer carriers. ADM Arleigh Burke once said that military leaders should not be timid in their recommendations to civilian leaders and should "pound the table" if necessary so there would be no doubts as to where responsibility lay if their recommendations were not followed. Finally, ADM Elmo Zumwalt said that being CNO was likely the last uniformed job any officer would have, so they needed to make the most of it and be unafraid in speaking their minds to civilian leaders.
When given a choice, our politicians (of both sides) generally advance GOFOs of a certain ilk: intellectual, often physically unimposing, well schooled, polite. In short, people who run counter to the historical meme of an elite combat leader but reinforce the notion that “we can have the most dominant military in the world *and* have it run by pudgy dweebs who don’t say offensive things in polite company”.
One of the lesser discussed “downsides” of extended periods of peace / discretionary conflict (ie GWOT) is that it gives pols exactly this option. And they chose it, over and over and over. Only when confronted with the existential reality of an honest to god *war* do pols have to change their preferences and, in the immortal words of Fleet ADM King, “send for the sons of bitches”.
When I did my only staff tour in the Readiness department, one of the "Action Officers" was a Navy SEAL O-5. I was a lower level assistant to one of the A.O.'s as an E-8/W-2 and as such things were discussed among the other post-CO tour SWO's and Aviators as if I wasn't even there. I'd often hear that SEAL described as "rough around the edges". From my perspective when I heard that, it meant to me "Whadda an effing troglodyte" but when I saw the guy in action he looked like that Senior Chief BT I knew from East Boston on that Knox Frigate whose leadership style was "hands on" and "4-Letter homilies". That guy kept that Frigate's 1200 lbs plant in fighting trim ready for all ahead flank at all times. A treasure. That SEAL growled at me once, not sure why. But I doubled down on my doubled down work ethic just to avoid another seance with him.
Dale, we are so fortunate to have served with men "like that Senior Chief BT ... from East Boston." I get nostalgic thinking about them, and I suspect we are the last generation they mentored. I recall receiving a reenlistment lecture at mid-career from a man like that. He was instrumental in so many ways.
And many of us (you, me and others) were sure to carry on the mentoring as best we could. Have been out for 33 years. Do they still say "Shipmate"? Know its meaning? I hope so.
You know, I’ve not really heard, or read, about doing unmanned cargo ships. During WW2 one of the biggest problems was getting merchant seamen on ships, and then resuming them when their ship was sunk. We could instead have most of the convoy unmanned with one or two manned ships set up as convoy command ships.
...because the technology from engineering to command and control does not exist to make such things of any use in a conflict in the next decade, that's why.
Also, things break down on merchant chips. You need deck officers to constantly look for loose lashing, rust, leaks, etc. You need engineers to fix things right there and then when a piston stops moving, etc. And then there is always the risk of fire which has to be fought by teams. The crews of the largest container ships are now around 25 seamen.
One of my mentors, a WWII Merchant Seaman at age 16, died last August. I learned as much, maybe more, from him than I have ever learned from anyone else. He gave me a life mantra, which I cannot repeat here.
They are struggling to get glorified unmanned dingys to sea on time. The AI driven CLF ships will have to wait until the 22nd century. I'll settle for literally anymore CLF ships at this point. Any assumption that we will be able to pay our way out of the problem when the missiles start flying is banking on greed defeating the instinct for self-preservation and hoping that someone else built the ships that we neglected to build.
This is why I love reading CDR Salamander: He brings back a lot of very recent memories and perceptions that I experienced at the end of my four plus decades in DoD. Articles like this set off a cascade of memories that stimulate my brain.
This has a significant downside, as those memories can make me want to experience acute nausea as I remember what we were doing.
Human beings act in what they perceive as "good", in no small part good for themselves. If a system rewards good critical thinking, progress towards national goals and objectives (real, not .ppt deep), then you will likely get more of it. If it rewards political behavior, and always working towards your next job (whether it's another star or a board position on a major defense contractor) then one can argue you get what you see today. It's not just the Navy, it's across the services, Joint Staff, and intelligence community. This is the output of the process that the system is currently designed to produce. Not the first time we were here. Check the rate at which flag officers / commanders were relieved at the beginning of WW II. They had time to get their act together back then. We, on the other hand, will go to war with the force and leadership we have today. Don't get me started on how many Sherman / T-34 tanks were produced vs Tigers and Panthers in WW II. At some point, quantity becomes a quality, or words to that effect.
We really need to get a bunch more FFGs (that actually work) built and deployed. I wouldn't be averse to a small fleet of CGs with some actual guns added to the mix as well. Heck, as long as I'm dreaming, a couple of battleships would be helpful right now in the Red Sea. Oh well.
We had such high hopes for CNO when she was named for the job. As many of us said then, time will tell. Well time has spoken. New boss same as the old boss.
I think that many of us hoped. Yeah, yeah, I know. Hope is not a plan, etc. She talked the talk for a very short period of time. We are in desperate need of quality leaders in the civilian and military worlds.
And this is new how? The folks who typically fill our senior leadership positions have been chosen/bred/bent and burnished to be at best politically subservient and at worst - well no need to get into that... I wish I could be more optimistic but these are folks who learned the best way to the top was not to piss off their masters with opposition or even hard questions. A can do attitude I suppose even if only directed upward. Why should we expect them to behave differently than they likely have throughout their careers just because they are now higher on an org chart - at this point they're either still grasping for more or afraid of the fall
As long as that illusive 5th star dangles like a carrot, behaviors won't be different, Ed. Kind of like that old saw of who outruns the bear and kneecapping.
Do you have a more clear version of that slide “Plan vs US Naval Force Laydown” that you can share here? It is hard to enlarge and read the one in your email.
What you are really talking about is our "go along to get along" culture of senior officers now. The CNO details all Navy Flags, so if you aren't a yes man/woman when he stops the music, you find you are out of a chair.
I understand our almost religious belief that unmanned vehicles will save our bacon in event of a conflict. However, I hear very little about operating in a heavy EW or EMP environment and how those platforms will be hardened or respond in such a situation.
Who is being held accountable to ensure they can operate in such an environment? Or, perhaps it is the same group think that enabled "minimum manning", the LCS, the DDG-1000, F-35 maintenance programs that don't work, the Firescout, the railgun, and other failed major programs?
Who is looking at our war reserves? Same geniuses who tried to kill the F-18G program? Does the CNO really know how long it will take to restart the F-18 Super Hornet and F-18G production lines if war breaks out after the lines shut down? If we honestly think it is possible in the next 3-4 yrs, why aren't we doing minimum production runs to keep them open? Or, are we whistling past the graveyard using "hope" as an operational premise that we can somehow magically up the F-35 production and reopen the F18 line and oh, yes those magic AI wingmen in sufficient numbers to win a war...with what armament, BTW?
Told some 4 star friends that certain (now proven failed) programs were VERY bad ideas before I retired. Was basically given a nod that all terminal 06's get, especially if they like me avoided DC like the plague. Got the "you don't understand" lecture. No, having spent my career in the warfighting arena I did understand bad decisions when I saw them. Too bad our Flag officers consider the self-licking ice cream cone of DC service to be infallible. It is going to get our butts kicked sooner than later.
Jim - your note resonated with me in a way that few do. I can't count the number of times I heard that I "just didn't understand" or was encouraged to take a certain type of DC assignment so that I might improve my "understanding of how things work". I'm hard-headed (and selfishly, I liked being in the fight while there was a fight to be in), so I ducked and dodged and kept finding my way back to IQ/AFG instead. But I generally took what I was being told at face value. I really did assume that I was being self-centered (chasing the dragons I wanted to chase) and that they were right: I just didn't understand. Somewhere along the way, it dawned on me that all that complexity was not - in fact - a virtue. Rather, it was a screen erected around the cesspool to make stomaching it easier for all involved. I doubt I would have made a great or even good FOGO in the 21st century, so I have no qualms with the choices I made or my decision to get out when, at long last, I was finally too senior to ever beg/borrow/steal my way into a legit operational role again. But I worry that the slightly more civilized version of me, the guys who were still warfighters at heart and in another era would have went on to bring pride to the stars on their collar, made the same decision I made: to get out. When the going gets tough and, as FADM King said, we finally have to "send for the sons of bitches", who is going to be around to answer the call?
It is posts like this from you which are particularly depressing. With every politician expounding on the need for another $13B in Israel or $60B in Ukraine, it is not isolationist to say that a targeted spending bill is needed here/now to light our own boiler for expansion of shipbuilding capacity for USN/USCG (assuming we can even crew the ships) and resolve the vital maritime logistics issues which have been brought into sharp relief these last years.
We might have an issue crewing the ships given the current ideology espoused in the military ranks that are causing recruiting deficits.
We haven't got the shipyards and drydocks to build and repair the hulls we need, nor can we recruit the bodies to crew them, nor can we manufacture the weapons to arm them, nor (apparently) can we logically train the crews we do have to avoid collisions at sea.
Barring a wholesale flushing of admirals and bureaucrats, plus a demolition and rebuild of the promotion & acquisition systems, we are doomed to defeat.
while there is shipbuilding capacity in the mid/small size area (all those shipyard building supply boats on the gulf coast) what there is a paucity of are steel and advanced technology equipment production. The last thirty years have destroyed our heavy industrial capacity. But it doesn't matter, the damage is done and it's too late to do anything before the Chinese act. the calendar isn't their friend either and if they do something it has to be soon, like next 12-24 months it's not happening and I'm sure they know this too. Whether or not they do in DC or Langley remains to be seen.
Yes. Their population implosion is like an oncoming bullet train in a tunnel. Things are gonna get spicy, and soon.
Unfortunately for us China's population and economic problems will not be sufficient to restrict their power projection in the near term. It may save us in ten years, but we need to deter them for that long.
Concur. They will have a relatively narrow demographic window to make their move. They know this. They also know that they're not likely to get a more dysfunctional US government than the ones a certain party favors. Compliance or defeat is how this will end. Elections do have consequences, no doubt.
Yeah it’ll be the same as SK or Japan yet Americans think of them as “good allies”
Next 12-24 months? Why do you think their window is so short? They probably have a good eight years of runway before things start trending in our direction again.
He assumes we will get our act together and people will realize those who try and divide us might as well be considered an agent of our adversary. Let's hope.
If so, that's a bad assumption given the current data and historical trend of the past 30 years.
That hope seems like cope
The collisions were more products of crew size diminishing and underway cycles increasing due to shortages in fleet size than a training issue.
Alea iacta est
Hey ... why are my feet wet?
Rubicon baby
Every hull need not be 500 feet and over 7000 long tons.
Cmon mate.
Stop dooming or rhe PLAN won’t even get much resistance as it expands in the SCS and the Pacific
🇨🇳
Chairman Winnie the Pooh thanks you for your revolutionary struggle, wumao. You get five social credit points and a weekend pass to leave your neighborhood and travel up to 20 km.
Can you please actually reply properly, it’s fucking boring hearing the same replies from you.
Don’t you actually want to address the topic?
The flags are too stupid to realize that the cancer rot of cultural Marxism and DEI has led to a catastrophic collapse in recruiting. They literally accused their largest source of warm bodies and seed crop of being racists, rapists and extremists. Generational family members with a rich history of service are simply encouraging their children to pursue other professions and other opportunities. Why volunteer to serve an institution that hates you? It’s really that simple. But at least Sailors can walk around with their hands in their pockets. That will fix everything.
It’s funny/sad to see the lengths they will go to before even considering this as a possible explanation for the recruiting / retention crisis.
They can’t see it because that would force a self examination and they aren’t intellectually honest with themselves. As Ron White said: “you can’t fix stupid”.
Amazing how many stupid people attain high rank and wealth. Must be a conspiracy. I am sure that's what Occam's razor was all about.
Lol. Defend them if you wish. Maybe explain the current situation to me at a third grade level then. Speak slowly so I can digest it.
I think it more likely they are saying what they think they need to say to keep their jobs and keep get promoted.
If they weren't willfully blind to it their careers would have been over at 0-5. Anything but the Truth to mitigate a crisis, it seems.
Fair. Can't hire a blind man and then bitch when he don't see too good.
Start with no and work your way to yes.
Can't change what you run away from. This is what I say to ex Californians. Damn them for abandoning a place this beautiful. Fight early, fight often.
Lol really? You may trust your children with this current crop of flags. I won’t. Lots of examples why, EAU - Forced vaccine, Kabul, Benghazi, LCS, Fat Leonard, DEI directorate, the list is long.
As for the smart Californians who saw the rot, don’t blame them because you were slow on the draw to leave and now likely can’t sell. California was becoming a lost cause in the 80’s. Stevie Wonder could see it. Now it’s a socialist paradise. The people leaving immediately change their car license plates and registration. Even they know they smell like shit.
Are you nuts? A hovel in this state escalates price faster than most of the rest of the country. Its the primary means enabling those leaving. Move to another state and have the cushy house.
Come on then! You can sell and pay cash and still have enough to pay taxes for 10
Years
Sometimes to stay and fight is to walk into a Thermopylae or Alamo. I'd rather do a Dunkirk so we can regroup and do a Normandy.
There are no more Spartans.
The Alamo was a victory of sorts because it held back the Mexican army at a critical time and then became a rallying cry for Sam Houston's later victory at San Jacinto. At least so says this Texican.
Wasn’t quite a victory for Bowie or Crockett or Travis though…
Don’t forget the false eyelashes. They are now legal. Recruiting will soar.
and tattoos
The flags aren’t stupid. They know. They also know that if they say anything they will be sacked and not get a cushy job with some contractor. You try living in Reston on your half pay pension with a kid in college.
Ok. They are cowards. That work?
I think they call it "alternatively couraged" or "differently enbravened."
The Navy doesn't have Civil Air Patrol for mariners nor is JROTC of a naval ilk anywhere I've seen it. Between that and disquals from digitized health records we shoot ourselves in the foot even before getting to what old guys think is important from their news feed.
There is Naval JROTC at Kinnick HS in Yokosuka. Arguing anything other than DEI is causing all the recruiting issues on this site is a waste of time, Everybody already knows nobody is enlisting because of drag queen story hour at the base library and the pride parades all hands are forced to attend..
Sea Scouts?
Are the Sea Cadets still a thing? I know Ohio has a tiny Naval Militia.
Yes. Still a thing. My son was a sea cadet for 4 years. Guess who isn’t enlisting…
Send him out here to a ship homeported in WESTPAC. I'll check in on him from time to time. The USN out here still has a mission and while it's been tamed down a little bit, Haircut Jr. will get some life experiences all his own (if you know what I mean).
You don’t seem to get it. I’m not alone when I say the current military leadership and civilian government isn’t trustworthy for me to recommend my son serve. They have squandered that trust at places like Benghazi, Kabul and right here at home with the illegal vax mandates. All the while calling him a racist, rapist and extremist. Why serve in that environment?
Get off the bourbon. It makes you talk too much.
Naval Militia - They will be on the FBI watch list.
Aiding a democracy invaded by our enemy Russia is not a waste of funds, nor is it incompatible with building a strong Navy. Aiding a democracy attacked by the kleptocracy next door is not incompatible with building a strong navy.
If you are an isolationist, who wants to hunker down inside a fortified border; you need a powerful navy. If you are an interventionist, who wants the US engaged and involved worldwide, you need a powerful navy. If you think the US is the shining city on the hill, a beacon to the world, you need a powerful navy.
Tom, we have no money.
What we have is a pile of debt and a rapidly dwindling reputation for repaying our debts on time. Tell me what you think will happen to the dwindling strength of the U.S. dollar – and to our ability to keep borrowing – when Uncle Sam finally misses a payment.
Nonsense. We are the richest nation in the world! Of course we can pay to kill invading Russian soldiers in Ukraine and build ships here at home. US economic growth has progressed at a significant pace over the course of 2023. In the third quarter of 2023 private manufacturing construction investment reached its highest level on record since 1958. Monthly nonfarm payrolls grew by 232,000 per month on average in 2023, 55,000 more jobs per month than the average pace in 2018 and 2019. After peaking in summer 2022, inflation has been on a downward trend for a year and a half thanks to a retreat of food, energy, and goods inflation.
All this "woe is us," defeatism is annoying. Annoying and wrong.
The inflation rate is in a downward trend. But prices continue to rise and are still above the target rate of 2%. We've seen 17% average price rise over the last three years. It is not all sunny uplands.
The biggest DIB threat to naval readiness is the lack of shipyards and repair facilities and I see no effort to arrest that trend.
Biden admin has been cooking the books since 2020. Every single report is revised weeks or months after they tell the lie.
Did you pay attention to the prior admin?
Also...we are paying high interst on this increasing debt. There is no "nonesense" at all with these warnings, Tom. Yes, we are a rich nation on relative terms, but we still need to face the facts of our current budgets and debt. Our nation's leadership has to start making the tough decisions instead of kicking the can down the road. Balance our national security objectives with the financial resources we have. We are going into an era of "scarcity" with a dwindling capacity to maintain our control of the seas. Lack of shipyards, lack of talent, lack of ships, which will ultimately lead to reduced resilient power to deal with a near peer adversary. Our adversaries are watching.
Not to mention that we're paying higher interest rates because of the FED's efforts to combat high inflation rates, which were caused by Biden's ridiculous spending during his first year in office. Back when many of his advisors would expound on modern monetary theory and deny that the risk of high inflation was even something that modern economies had to worry about. Talk about getting smack upside the head with reality.
So maybe we should just quit.
"But prices continue to rise"
"Always with the negative waves, Moriarty"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IH3P-CYilzw
I see someone gets his news from CBS and MSN.
I suppose that's intended to be an insult. Is MSM even a thing anymore.
What you MAGA folks forget is that there are objective facts. For example, Ukraine was attacked by a foreign invader.
I think it's a matter of priorities, Tom, assuming the current administration has any. You don't have to be MAGA to think resources and will should be directed at the US border. It is an invasion, as well, and it will cripple us for generations. Personally, I'm all about making the Russian armed forces pay a generational price, but not at the expense of our nation's coffers. Israel deserves support, NATO can piss off until they get with the program, and Ukraine should get something but not the generous aid package proposed. If anything, we should husband our resources and give conditionally. The real world is transactional.
Lol. Not a MaGA. But you be you boo.
So what. Not our concern. Not worth our money.
Just how "foreign" is a nation whom Ukraine was part of for several hundred years and with whom a significant percentage of the population shares the same language and culture? Like saying Virginia et al. were attacked by a foreign invader in 1860.
Richest nation. 34 trillion in debt. Have you driven on the US95? Take the Acela from DC to NYC and look at Baltimore. Worse than Hiroshima 1945. Yet we pour money down the Ukrainian drain
Place some blame - isn't that our fault, as Americans? We let our own cities and towns, as you state, look like an atomic bomb hit them. Nobody's fault but our own. Just like a navy requires capital, so does infrastructure. Capital = taxes so that's why we won't do squat about it either.
"inflation has been on a downward trend for a year"
That's pretty funny, actually. I might add that it may continue that "downward trend" indefinitely. Or not.
Big difference between "rising less quickly" and "decreasing." The current trajectory is still inflationary, not deflationary.
I'll ask again, but more directly.
What do you think will happen to the dwindling strength of the U.S. dollar – and to our ability to keep borrowing – when Uncle Sam finally misses a payment?
Yes, the USD will probably drop to record lows when Congress finally does nothing and lets the US default on its debt for stupid political reasons.
The dollar does seem to be doing pretty well in one foreign exchange market. It is way up on the other bellwether currency in the world, the Japanese yen. A 500ml bottle of Kirin beer is now under 2 bucks. Way to go USD!
It's impossible to miss a payment when you can print/create all the money you want. The problem comes when the creditor won't accept the form of payment. Countries like Argentina, Mexico, etc. don't go bankrupt because they miss a payment, they go bankrupt because their creditors don't accept pesos as payment; they want dollars (or gold), and Argentina, Mexico, etc. can't print dollars.
Currency market doesn't seem to agree. https://www.statista.com/statistics/655224/conversion-rate-of-major-currencies-to-the-us-dollar/
Bingo!
Ukraine is a kleptocracy. Not worth a farthing.
We can't even build ships on schedule in the US and no amount of throwing money at our current shipbuilding yards is going to change that. All our current yards are behind in delivering ships for a multitude of reasons, but primarily because of a lack of qualified tradespeople. Those craftsmen don't grow on trees. Meanwhile, while we dither, the Ukrainians are busy killing one of our mortal enemies. Want ROI? Give the Ukrainians the arms they need to kill as many Bolsheviks as possible while we spend a decade (or longer) trying to untangle the fur ball that is the US ship building industry. But I already know the reasons we won't give to Ukraine - it's not our war glug glug, the current administration blah blah, we're in debt wank wank, Ukraine is a kleptocracy uhh uhh. Taylor Swift wants us to give to Ukraine so we're not going to poo poo. 'Murica.
Why. Why the fuck is Russia a mortal
Enemy?
Wow. I have been coming to this site since the mid 2000's. I mostly lurk, and I have read many of your comments in the past, so I know you are a real person and not a troll. For the life of me, I can't understand, after reading your posts for so many years, why you would post something as stupid as this. Hopefully it's the bourbon talking. Dumb, just dumb.
Or maybe that was a rhetorical question. If so I'd be happy to explain why they are a mortal enemy in 1000 words or less.
No. Not bourbon speak. Lol. Way to try to marginalize my opinion. I don’t see Russia as a mortal enemy. I chased their subs all around the Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea when they were the Soviet. I recognized the communist threat as evil and what it did to the subjugated. That was also 40 years past. They tossed off their own yokes and that’s their affair. The world is better off without communism and particularly the Soviet Union. This isn’t the old Soviet. I also have had the grace to adopt my son from a former Soviet republic. I accept the Russians for what they are. My thinking on the Russians has matured and changed as many cold warriors have. We MISSED. A fucking huge opportunity to make a final prosperous peace with the Russians in 97-99. Instead? We needed a strawman. A “mortal” enemy. I literally rode around Red Fucking Square in a 1997 Jeep Grand Cherokee. Our driver was so proud of the future relationship between America and Russia. Notice no communist bullshit. Just a desire to be friends.
Is Russia a threat? Possibly because we must make them one. Have you ever talked to a rank and file Russian? I have. They have calloused hands and a warm smile.
Ukraine has herself to blame for her predicament. It’s NOT A FUCKING NATO nation and has no rights under any treaty we are obliged to. All we have done is facilitate a couple of Ukraine generations to death under the jingoism of “better there than here” or “we are killing Russian cheaply and with others lives”. Really? Where the fuck is the moral imperative or even the Christian honesty in trying to reconcile that we are doing as God’s work? What we are doing doesn’t do shit for the American people, has no basis in moral values by encouraging more blood letting and has zero national interest. At least I can be honest about it. So yes please enlighten me with your 1,000 words.
Russia isn’t a mortal enemy. They aren’t the Soviet Union.
China. Absolutely is.
How many jobs and factories did we lose to Russia as opposed to China?
I think future historians will regard our antagonizing Russia and driving her in to the arms of China as one of the greatest strategic blunders in American history.
Obama and Biden undid Nixon's greatest accomplishment of separating our adversaries. Now we are facing the entire Eurasian landmass.
I don't think Iran would have launched the most recent attacks without the tacit approval of its big brothers in Moscow and Beijing. In the past Russia might have restrained Iran. No more.
You are correct. I think the squandered opportunity was by design. It’s easier for the MIC to sell shit when they have an enemy. Back in 95-99, China wasn’t a credible enemy yet (although Xi and his gang had big plans). So to keep the gravy train rolling, we pointed fingers at Russia until the Islamic fucks showed up and occupied our attention for the next 25 years until the China Communists got their shit together.
Russia was Russia. No surprises and we could and should have negotiated honestly instead of trying to pick a fight when none was warranted.
Try to do your own work and not copy the shill Zeihan.
You were always the least liked character on the "A"Team. There, I said it. I don't shill for anybody and I stand by my comment that your comment was dumb.
OK, I will explain why the Soviets are a mortal enemy, and they are the Soviets because their leader is of that commie ilk. Since 1945 the Soviets have done everything in their power to bring a downfall of the West. The Korean War, Vietnam War and Afghanistan War are all examples of where the Soviets have fought proxy wars against the US. Should I mention the Cuban Missile Crisis and their efforts to destabilize Central America? How about their shenanigans in Eastern Europe after WWII? Any of this ringing a bell? I could give two sh1ts how their hands feel or how they smile. They have nukes pointed at us, so therefore they are a mortal enemy. I am sure Comrade Putin enjoys your twisted Orwellian thought process though.
Have you ever talked to a rank and file Chinese?
Guess I better go back to lurking. I must be too dickish and out of touch to post here.
Lol. Least liked character. That’s not a metric because I’m just a haircut. Well after 20 some odd years I said something that you didn’t agree with is a good batting average. No hard feelings.
They aren’t the “Soviets” any longer. Now you’re the one being dumb. Stupid in fact. But that’s your prerogative.
Yes. I have spoken to Chinese. They are an existential threat. You’re picking the wrong “mortal enemy” but double down on that all you want. Russia is not the Soviet Union. An oligarchy? Absolutely but then again the same could be said about the current government we are possessed with. You failed to convince me in your less than 1000 words. I’m too deep in my cups to count them. I’ll take your word for it.
You do realize that you are literally describing Soviet Union Cold War actions and offer nothing new since the collapse of the Soviet Union. How many Napoleonic Grenadiers are buried in Ukraine?
"Since 1945 the Soviets have done everything in their power to bring a downfall of the West. "
Wrong. Since about 1918. And the important question is WHY? They certainly had no intentions of destroying the west before then, so what changed? We have fought actual wars against Germany (2) and Japan; why are they not "mortal enemies"?
Sometimes we don’t all cheer lead for the same team. I make it a habit of going against conventional wisdom. I don’t let emotions tell me what to do. Also don’t watch sportsball. So….
I was wrong about you being a bourbon man, but I'll bet you're a Swiftie at heart. Come on now, you know deep down, after you get past that gruff exterior, you have to admit you can't get enough of Taylor and Travis. If you deny it, your denial just proves how much of a Swiftie you are. Prove me wrong.
Jibber Jabber.
Russia is a mortal enemy because their leader hates America, and is rebuilding the Soviet Union.
"...because their leader hates America,"
And I will bet the evidence for that is in the same place as the evidence he wants to conquer all of Europe.
So Russia existing as nation state for centuries up until the Bolsheviks had their 80 years of fuckery means every Russian, man, woman and child is a mortal enemy? Got it. Time to ask congress for a gazallion dollars. You know, to save posterity from the Russian hordes.
Bolsheviks?
War is coming; war is here because we are perceived as weak. Right now, the only words out of the CNO mouth should be "600 ship navy."
Also merit based recruiting. Unfortunately, neither is politically acceptable.
"...merit based recruiting" Is there even a big enough pool to draw from today, Jonh? I am a Boomer, Class of '48, so may be jaded.
Well, we are living in the population curve of the boomer's creation.
Expected the "OK, Boomer" remark. No problem, R.J. So we couldn't keep it zippered. What generation ever did?
Actually, it was the lack of children of the younger Boomers that was the problem. Not to mention the teaching and culture the Boomers gave to the generations that they raised. Those bemoaning the lack of values and fitness of the younger generations need to start looking hard at what they were taught and by whom.
"Those bemoaning the lack of values and fitness of the [boomers] need to start looking hard at what they were taught and by whom. "
It was "The Greatest Generation" that taught those boomers that culture.
Annnnnd it's Turtles all the way down.
I live in a city with thousands of incredible smart, competitive kids and have never once seen someone in uniform in this town yet alone a recruiting office. Just checked. There is no Navy recruiting office. Over 300k people.
Have a former SeaBee S-i-L who did 3 years of recruiting in the PNW area and his final 7 years as a career recruiter (NC) there. He had quotas to fill. He also had color, ethnicity and gender numbers that were important. e.g. He had half a dozen White men with STEM degrees wanting to be Navy Nuke Officers but he had to find two Hispanic women first before putting the men in ahead of them. Those guys got tired of being on the waiting list and sought careers elsewhere. I am wondering, Andy, what the demographics are in your 300K town. Think I know the answer. Skip to 00:37 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=532j-186xEQ
That is a legit problem. Looking at where the recruiters are on my map and its obvious they aren't hunting the best and brightest.
So the academy appointments go away?
Eugene: But, we can neither afford nor man a 300 ship navy.
Which is a lie.
Depends on which 300 ships.
But we can minimum man our ships, Bill. We've been there, done that, reaped the whirlwind.
I have started thinking about what the differences would be if the Chinese bring the fight to the Eastern Pacific/US mainland as opposed to the US bringing the fight to China.
I suspect that would be even more ugly for them than us in the WESTPAC
Yep. That 6,000 mile one-way trip applies to all parties. Almost zero chance of it being a surprise event given today's capabilities.
We have basically no penetration of China (or Iran) since CIA arrogance and laziness got all the agents in China and Iran killed. How many container ships a day do we or Mexico get from China? What will tell us that the ship has containers full of cruise missiles or MRBMs before they launch?
Agree with your first sentence. Second sentence- I've no idea. Third sentence- I do not think there is any way we can tell until after the vessel launches the missiles.
That’s blasphemy! And yet very correct. They will certainly reach west conus with DF41’s and their massive guerrilla army already here.
We won’t bring a large fight to China. We will be steam rolled the first days and weeks. We will be left stunned by the damage and the seminal questions will remain? Why didn’t we see it coming and why didn’t we stop it!!?
Deniable sabotage is my reckoning. Of course dropping the SD bay bridge is a mighty tempting target.
Might be easier to take down a large portion of the electrical grid for a few months and sit back while 50% of each eat each other
Might help us in the long run.
Just finished reading The Attack, Mr. T. You and Kurt Schlichter get to say, "Told ya so". Not to rub it in, but to rally the survivors to build The Wall on the West Coast.
I hate to be right. But I can’t see any other logical conclusion to how it will go down. I won’t be saying I was right after it starts - I’ll be shooting PLA soldiers…
"their massive guerrilla army already here."
Both physically and digitally.
I wonder if we have the resources to clear the narrows in our major Naval ports if the Chinese decide to sink/scuttle a number of container ships in those ports. What if they just mine the major ports, do we have the right resources to clear them? If I was the Chinese I would not limit an attack on the US to just the Pacific ports. I would do my best to bottle up Norfolk, Mayport, Groton and others on the East Cost as well. If you could bottle up the ships and shut down the Panama Canal you would buy yourself a lot of time.
Yep
My suspicion is that the SEALs and the marine mammals could clear the San Diego channel and port of mines in a reasonable period. Days, not weeks. But those could be very important days. And it depends on how the mines get detected. Is it a Dole container ship, a car carrier or a CVN?
Back in the day, there was an operational plan to blow the strip all the way to IB. But that was before they built navy housing and condos.
Come on least favorite haircut from the "A" team there is one thing you have to remember - our sh1t works. Their sh1t is based off Soviet sh1t that doesn't work. They won't be pushovers mind you, but arming Taiwan to the teeth and then pulling the ROK's, JMSDF and the Aussies into the fight equals PLAN sunk and PLA swimming back to mainland jina.
Yes, we will finally get our hair messed up a bit, but it won't be "The Man in the High Tower". It'll suck to be in Japan, ROK, Guam, Hawaii and the West Coast but what're you going to do? Not fight?
Do have evidence that Chinese gear doesn't work. China is not Russia. How many Russian TV's do Americans buy, vs how many Chinese TV's we buy. Same for computers, cell phones and other high tech gear that works just fine. I don't think that an American has been allowed on a current gen Chinese warship. They look sharp.
Dude literally 90% of everything in your household is made in China. To presume their shit doesn’t work is just retarded. It’s comforting to claim their old “Soviet designed “ shit won’t work. That’s foolish.
Not fighting is the mantra of the Trump team. When your leader is a draft-dodging coward, not fighting is what you get.
I believe draft "avoiding" is more accurate. Same difference as tax-dodging vs. tax avoidance. If I recall correctly, Trump had actual deferments. As opposed to Bill Clinton, for example, who received two draft notices and failed to report.
What-about-ism is never a good look; particularly when your example left office almost a quarter of a century ago. President Bonespur is a coward. A proven coward.
Bill's worse. You can admit it, Tom. It won't kill you to apply one standard across the board.
"A proven coward."
Any actual evidence?
"our sh1t works. Their sh1t is based off Soviet sh1t that doesn't work. "
Tell that to the pilots who flew over N. Vietnam and tried to shoot down Migs with Sparrow missiles or destroy ground targets with Bullpup missiles while dodging SAMs and flak. Or even something as simple as a rifle; the early M-16 vs. AK, for example. Etc. A lot of people from a lot of countries have died because they Knew "our sh1t works, theirs doesn't".
The one aspect of "American Exceptionalism" that doesn't turn my stomach is geography. We who are fortunate enough to call ourselves "Americans" really are blessed with a miraculous homeland, now as much as any time in history. We have geographically large and generally friendly neighbors to our North and South, and the best neighbors one could ever dream of to the East and West (aka, big ass oceans). We are able to produce (and for the most part, refine) all the energy in all the forms we need to satisfy our own energy requirements. Same with food. We have some weaknesses (chips and their raw inputs is high on the list, for now), but overall America at home is in a massively stronger position than America abroad today.
Honestly, China getting waaaaay out over her skis by trying to bring the fight to us, rather than consolidating and expanding power in their own backyard is one of the few ways I can see the next 5-10 years playing out very very differently.
Our neighbors to the North and South are equally blessed that they have us rather than China on their contiguous border. Not that you will ever hear that expressed by their elected leaders. The US is the root of all evil dont'cha know.
yea for sure. same thing applies more broadly around the globe. If/when China ever does supplant the US on the global stage, it will be the start of some truly unpleasant times for many who bemoaned the terrible west for years beforehand.
Porfirio Díaz would like a word. "Tan lejos de Dios y tan cerca de los Estados Unidos!"
I'm pretty sure that Vietnam would switch locations with Mexico in a heartbeat.
Porfirio Diaz was a tinpot dictator whose authoritarian rule caused the Mexican Civil War that destroyed Mexico and from which it still has not fully recovered.
I'm sure he would, and i'm sure he's even got some legitimate gripes he could conjure up (if he weren't, ya know, dead). But here's the thing: the US is kind of like capitalism. It's not the best nation to ever lead the world, just the least worst of all the ones who have tried it so far.
"Many forms of Government have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.…"
Winston S Churchill, November 11, 1947.
Probably my hottest high-level take is that democracy (as it exists in the US today) has had its moment in the sun and is on the way out. Birthright citizenship + universal franchise + rise of the welfare state is a bad recipe. One of those 3 ingredients needs to change, and I don't think the welfare state is going away anytime soon.
Winston was lucky not to have lived to see what became of his beloved empire.
China is not foolish enough to bring the fight to our shores. Not directly as in ships off our coast, amphibs coming onto our shores. I do believe there are hundreds if not thousands of Chinese military types that came in thru the open southern border and will cause havoc if there is a fight.
Not likely IMHO, what I think WILL happen are limited strikes designed to bottle up the fleet with minimal casualties. So sinking a container ship in the jetties at Apra, Pearl and Yokosuka. Given the strategic importance of those locations US naval response to a Chinese invasion would be hampered but minimal (or optimally no) civilian casualties gives coverage to those against a war with China to delay delay delay a response. If a war is prolonged there are good odds that Guam will be occupied or at the very least see the airfields and ports damaged to the point the humanitarian crisis of famine in Guam could become the primary issue facing the sitting President and not Taiwan. I'm not optimistic. If you have family in the WestPac you should send them home.
You are looking at possible Chinese military action through a western lens. China will have zero reason to “limit” any strike when they go hot. They know they have one major preemptive shot to knock us back on our heels. This blog has demonstrated and curated our decline and their rise for almost 21 years….
If they are committed to war and know from their spies, agents (Hi Gen Milley!) and our public discussions that our plans include strikes on the mainland they have no reason not to preempt by attacking the assets we need to fight China first.
Absolutely. No half measures.
We can only pray that they would be that stupid. But I'm not holding my breath over it.
They don't want to enter my zone of terror.
The significant numbers issue is that the current >300 ship force is just too small, given our weakened naval maintenance and repair infrastructure, to keep 1/3 of the fleet constantly deployed and still do all of the maintenance, repair, training and crew rest needed to sustain that pace. The navy either needs to get bigger or cut back on deployments. We know the answer that will be given to that proposition however, yet there is still no plan to grow the size, especially that of the low-end fleet to help sustain the shuttle run deployment process the fleet has been doing since 1948. Instead we hear that numbers do not matter and that its all the fault of industry.
"the current > 300 ship force"...is really a force of 292 and shrinking.
And how many of those really count?
Count how? They do different jobs. We need logistical and support ships too. We need a lot more of them.
I am thinking LCS
What does it say about the U. S. Navy when its CNO is a journalism major.
Slightly better than Gender Studies though…
Not sure if that was a degree at that time.
I see what you did there.
And dresses like she is in the Army...
https://x.com/USNavyCNO/status/1756105706049253586?s=20
We knew she was likely to be weak. I think the only good news is that she's no longer in the warfighting CoC.
Crosses fingers they don't make her CJCS during Xiden 2's term...
Maybe not. But she is supposed to provide all the maritime assets needed by a CENTCOM or PACOM warfighter. As for CJCS that quota has been filled.
for now. In 3 years?
We will have to wait and see what President Kamala wants to do.
We will get to see how mighty the pen really is?
Nothing. It says nothing. I was an Animal Science major and attended a large, state land grant university. That course of study didn't keep me from being an effective Naval Officer though. Actually, being an Animal Science major helped me understand and relate to Boatswain's Mates and Gunner's Mates better. STEM for non-nuke Naval Officers is overrated.
Great. An animal science major. This administration might put you in charge of Space Command. Worse, you think you know something about ships.
I do know about them. I am onboard USN vessels most days. I was a SWO as well. The BDS is strong with you. You tried to get a dig in, but couldn't help yourself and left your garbage politics all over the place.
Please look above, Pete. Animal Science is a thing. The best D/H I ever worked for had a degree in American Studies. It was the Navy's loss when that LCDR got the calling to become a Catholic lay brother (vows & all). He now is somewhat like a FOGO in his order. No longer a sailor, but a fisher of men.
Maybe. If you want to be a veterinarian.
If undergraduate degrees really don't matter, then we are wasting a lot of money on our service academies and ROTC.
We may as well adopt the old British model of making a 16 year old a midshipman at 16 and learning to be an officer on the ship.
I am a book junkie when it comes to RN novels set in the Napoleonic Wars. I like their officer accession model. Well, maybe except being a Midshipman. OCS took me with iffy majors. I was a middie for 4 days as a former Senior Chief...most horrid 4 decades of my life. Wasn't worried so much about "passing for Lieutenant" being a 16 year Navy man myself at the time and having plenty of ops and CIC experience, but having to be a Midshipman living in the orlop and that lo-ong wait from snot-nose noob to a vacant Lieutenancy and last in line owing to little "influence" or pedigree...it'd be a tough row to hoe. But then why should it be otherwise?
I really question our Naval education models when I look at guys like Beatty, Fisher, Jellicoe, Keyes, Mountbatten, etc. who began their careers at age 13 or so. What are kids getting for all their extra schooling? Higher self-esteem?
I would be embarrassed to admit I was an animal science major in a maritime chatroom unless I was training dolphins to help EOD.
Well, I am not embarrassed at all but I sure am glad you're so superior.
Most definitely when it comes to running ships. Probably not when it comes to grooming dogs.
When I was Chief aboard a Frigate my DIVO Ensign was an Animal Science major (then called "Animal Husbandry"). The poor guy was hapless. Despite mentoring, he never "got it". The Captain, instead of promoting him to LTjg sent him to Fleet Weather Center, Hawaii to finish out his 4 years. I liked my DIVO, helped him the best I could and the kid really tried, but because the Captain was down on him his wardroom brethren treated him like a leper. For the longest time I got a chuckle out of "Animal Husbandry" because of the "husbandry" part... as in WTF...men and sheep. Then some 20 years later my eldest daughter graduated from a large, state land grant university with a degree in Animal Science (w/ minors in Spanish, Portuguese and Ag finance.) Following that, it was an MS in Dairy Science and PhD in Food Science. All those are STEM and she is a no-kidding scientist doing important work for big bucks now. If you ever meet my daughter be sure to address her as "Doctor", m'kay. No more chuckling here. So, Animal Science, Kuso. Huzzah.
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Side note: My degrees are in psych, humanities and social studies. Please notice I spelled them in small letters. All obtained off-duty and in mostly night and weekend classes that were available between sea tours. The goal was always to become better credentialed and thereby promote to a job that allowed a bigger footprint. But being non-STEM AF I only got CWO, LDO and Asphalt Inspector out of it. But it did give me the paycheck to send my two girls to 15 years of college between them, and to good jobs, happiness, productive lives.
One of the dumbest (and most dangerous) Lieutenants (02) I knew had a Master's from a very good school. After a couple of weeks as a platoon leader he got bounced to Bn. where he lasted another couple of weeks before they bounced him to Saigon. STEM or other, it's not the degree that makes a good officer. Frankly, you don't even have to be particularly "intelligent". Character, common sense, and a good attitude are more important.
We need to return to the days when ADM Jim Holloway could stand in Congressional testimony and say that the Defense Secretary was wrong in his call for fewer carriers. ADM Arleigh Burke once said that military leaders should not be timid in their recommendations to civilian leaders and should "pound the table" if necessary so there would be no doubts as to where responsibility lay if their recommendations were not followed. Finally, ADM Elmo Zumwalt said that being CNO was likely the last uniformed job any officer would have, so they needed to make the most of it and be unafraid in speaking their minds to civilian leaders.
Those were different men in a different America.
I don't think Burke would get past O4 in today's Navy.
The promotion system actively screens those men out.
Ohio Coastie: Don't say "men." Say "navy persons."
The Coast Guard had women integrated into their ship's in the 70s. You'd think he'd know better. Tsk, O.C.
Unrepentant complementarian here. Men have their strengths, women have theirs. Effective warfighting is a male endeavor.
They ARE making the most of it! Gotta get those cushy positions at a contractor lined up…
I remember being impressed by some young officer that wrote a book called "Dereliction of Duty". I'm awaiting his sequel, where he explains his.
When given a choice, our politicians (of both sides) generally advance GOFOs of a certain ilk: intellectual, often physically unimposing, well schooled, polite. In short, people who run counter to the historical meme of an elite combat leader but reinforce the notion that “we can have the most dominant military in the world *and* have it run by pudgy dweebs who don’t say offensive things in polite company”.
One of the lesser discussed “downsides” of extended periods of peace / discretionary conflict (ie GWOT) is that it gives pols exactly this option. And they chose it, over and over and over. Only when confronted with the existential reality of an honest to god *war* do pols have to change their preferences and, in the immortal words of Fleet ADM King, “send for the sons of bitches”.
one of the examples of:
"Good times make soft men"
Tytler smiles.
King would leave today's Navy as an O3 out of sheer disgust with PC, CRT, DEI and other Marxist claptrap.
When I did my only staff tour in the Readiness department, one of the "Action Officers" was a Navy SEAL O-5. I was a lower level assistant to one of the A.O.'s as an E-8/W-2 and as such things were discussed among the other post-CO tour SWO's and Aviators as if I wasn't even there. I'd often hear that SEAL described as "rough around the edges". From my perspective when I heard that, it meant to me "Whadda an effing troglodyte" but when I saw the guy in action he looked like that Senior Chief BT I knew from East Boston on that Knox Frigate whose leadership style was "hands on" and "4-Letter homilies". That guy kept that Frigate's 1200 lbs plant in fighting trim ready for all ahead flank at all times. A treasure. That SEAL growled at me once, not sure why. But I doubled down on my doubled down work ethic just to avoid another seance with him.
Dale, we are so fortunate to have served with men "like that Senior Chief BT ... from East Boston." I get nostalgic thinking about them, and I suspect we are the last generation they mentored. I recall receiving a reenlistment lecture at mid-career from a man like that. He was instrumental in so many ways.
And many of us (you, me and others) were sure to carry on the mentoring as best we could. Have been out for 33 years. Do they still say "Shipmate"? Know its meaning? I hope so.
You know, I’ve not really heard, or read, about doing unmanned cargo ships. During WW2 one of the biggest problems was getting merchant seamen on ships, and then resuming them when their ship was sunk. We could instead have most of the convoy unmanned with one or two manned ships set up as convoy command ships.
...because the technology from engineering to command and control does not exist to make such things of any use in a conflict in the next decade, that's why.
Also, things break down on merchant chips. You need deck officers to constantly look for loose lashing, rust, leaks, etc. You need engineers to fix things right there and then when a piston stops moving, etc. And then there is always the risk of fire which has to be fought by teams. The crews of the largest container ships are now around 25 seamen.
One of my mentors, a WWII Merchant Seaman at age 16, died last August. I learned as much, maybe more, from him than I have ever learned from anyone else. He gave me a life mantra, which I cannot repeat here.
The Navy does not appreciate the licensed mariners.
I suspect that there are plenty of merchant ships out there that are borderline in terms of seaworthiness. Thinka El Faro and Marine Electric.
You are so right! Much of the "global south" operates vessels discarded by Europe and North America.
They are struggling to get glorified unmanned dingys to sea on time. The AI driven CLF ships will have to wait until the 22nd century. I'll settle for literally anymore CLF ships at this point. Any assumption that we will be able to pay our way out of the problem when the missiles start flying is banking on greed defeating the instinct for self-preservation and hoping that someone else built the ships that we neglected to build.
This is why I love reading CDR Salamander: He brings back a lot of very recent memories and perceptions that I experienced at the end of my four plus decades in DoD. Articles like this set off a cascade of memories that stimulate my brain.
This has a significant downside, as those memories can make me want to experience acute nausea as I remember what we were doing.
Human beings act in what they perceive as "good", in no small part good for themselves. If a system rewards good critical thinking, progress towards national goals and objectives (real, not .ppt deep), then you will likely get more of it. If it rewards political behavior, and always working towards your next job (whether it's another star or a board position on a major defense contractor) then one can argue you get what you see today. It's not just the Navy, it's across the services, Joint Staff, and intelligence community. This is the output of the process that the system is currently designed to produce. Not the first time we were here. Check the rate at which flag officers / commanders were relieved at the beginning of WW II. They had time to get their act together back then. We, on the other hand, will go to war with the force and leadership we have today. Don't get me started on how many Sherman / T-34 tanks were produced vs Tigers and Panthers in WW II. At some point, quantity becomes a quality, or words to that effect.
We really need to get a bunch more FFGs (that actually work) built and deployed. I wouldn't be averse to a small fleet of CGs with some actual guns added to the mix as well. Heck, as long as I'm dreaming, a couple of battleships would be helpful right now in the Red Sea. Oh well.
We had such high hopes for CNO when she was named for the job. As many of us said then, time will tell. Well time has spoken. New boss same as the old boss.
I didn't knowing the priorities of this administration.
"S'cuse me, who's the "we"?
I think that many of us hoped. Yeah, yeah, I know. Hope is not a plan, etc. She talked the talk for a very short period of time. We are in desperate need of quality leaders in the civilian and military worlds.
lol
And this is new how? The folks who typically fill our senior leadership positions have been chosen/bred/bent and burnished to be at best politically subservient and at worst - well no need to get into that... I wish I could be more optimistic but these are folks who learned the best way to the top was not to piss off their masters with opposition or even hard questions. A can do attitude I suppose even if only directed upward. Why should we expect them to behave differently than they likely have throughout their careers just because they are now higher on an org chart - at this point they're either still grasping for more or afraid of the fall
As long as that illusive 5th star dangles like a carrot, behaviors won't be different, Ed. Kind of like that old saw of who outruns the bear and kneecapping.
Do you have a more clear version of that slide “Plan vs US Naval Force Laydown” that you can share here? It is hard to enlarge and read the one in your email.
Nevermind…found it.
CDR Sal,
What you are really talking about is our "go along to get along" culture of senior officers now. The CNO details all Navy Flags, so if you aren't a yes man/woman when he stops the music, you find you are out of a chair.
I understand our almost religious belief that unmanned vehicles will save our bacon in event of a conflict. However, I hear very little about operating in a heavy EW or EMP environment and how those platforms will be hardened or respond in such a situation.
Who is being held accountable to ensure they can operate in such an environment? Or, perhaps it is the same group think that enabled "minimum manning", the LCS, the DDG-1000, F-35 maintenance programs that don't work, the Firescout, the railgun, and other failed major programs?
Who is looking at our war reserves? Same geniuses who tried to kill the F-18G program? Does the CNO really know how long it will take to restart the F-18 Super Hornet and F-18G production lines if war breaks out after the lines shut down? If we honestly think it is possible in the next 3-4 yrs, why aren't we doing minimum production runs to keep them open? Or, are we whistling past the graveyard using "hope" as an operational premise that we can somehow magically up the F-35 production and reopen the F18 line and oh, yes those magic AI wingmen in sufficient numbers to win a war...with what armament, BTW?
Told some 4 star friends that certain (now proven failed) programs were VERY bad ideas before I retired. Was basically given a nod that all terminal 06's get, especially if they like me avoided DC like the plague. Got the "you don't understand" lecture. No, having spent my career in the warfighting arena I did understand bad decisions when I saw them. Too bad our Flag officers consider the self-licking ice cream cone of DC service to be infallible. It is going to get our butts kicked sooner than later.
Jim - your note resonated with me in a way that few do. I can't count the number of times I heard that I "just didn't understand" or was encouraged to take a certain type of DC assignment so that I might improve my "understanding of how things work". I'm hard-headed (and selfishly, I liked being in the fight while there was a fight to be in), so I ducked and dodged and kept finding my way back to IQ/AFG instead. But I generally took what I was being told at face value. I really did assume that I was being self-centered (chasing the dragons I wanted to chase) and that they were right: I just didn't understand. Somewhere along the way, it dawned on me that all that complexity was not - in fact - a virtue. Rather, it was a screen erected around the cesspool to make stomaching it easier for all involved. I doubt I would have made a great or even good FOGO in the 21st century, so I have no qualms with the choices I made or my decision to get out when, at long last, I was finally too senior to ever beg/borrow/steal my way into a legit operational role again. But I worry that the slightly more civilized version of me, the guys who were still warfighters at heart and in another era would have went on to bring pride to the stars on their collar, made the same decision I made: to get out. When the going gets tough and, as FADM King said, we finally have to "send for the sons of bitches", who is going to be around to answer the call?
Just so. We have gone from having a Revolt of the Admirals to having Revolting Admirals.
A refreshing turn of phrase. Some tiny balm to the "egad" I feel at the larger state of things.
Well said. Sadly accurate and applies to most FOGO's IMO.
When China runs rampant who will Congress blame?
The CNO.
Of course, never mind their dereliction of duty in regards to that pesky Article One Section 8 thingy: "To provide and maintain a Navy..."
That whole Constitution thing is passe anyway; it's so 18th century.
Who reads those dusty old parchments nowadays? We bask in penumbras and emanations now.
and whoever is sitting behind Adm Kimmel's old desk at Pearl...
Not themselves to be sure.
We will blame our insufficient commitment to Diversity, Equity and Inclusion.
yawn.