Please forgive the pessimism. It's become impossible to believe that two bloated and partisan classes, politicians and DoD civil service nomenklatura are capable of rising to the occasion. (I'd be happy to be wrong.)
Late edit: From USNI News
"Meanwhile, Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro told the Senate Armed Services Committee earlier this month that Fincantieri underbid the frigate contract.
“Maybe if the Constellation, if that had not been underbid during the previous administration and hadn’t been delayed from the very beginning and they came in with a best value price for it, and the Navy had not accepted it back then, we’d be in a better place with regards to the frigate as well,” Del Toro told the panel."
I guess the 88,000 NAVSEA employees, Admirals, PEO, and other program managers were all incompetent and partisan in the last Administration.
"...hadn’t been delayed from the very beginning..."
That's is cute since the decision to incorporate delays into the program goes back to the previous-previous-Administration, which is easily documented by the testimony of Sean Stackley before Congress.
From SASC hearing 01DEC2016. The built-in delay was specifically intended to retain funds for continued little crappy ship construction so that we could get the full 40 of those transformational seaframes.
"Senator Sessions: Will the cost of the remaining units in the LCS program be increased by down-selecting the LCS before reaching the currently planned 40 vessels?
Secretary Stackley: Increasingly complex operating environments, emphasis on distributed maritime operations, and the need for combat logistics force escort-capable ships to free up large surface combatants for high-end missions has prompted the Navy to reevaluate frigate requirements and pursue a Guided Missile Frigate (FFG(X)) having local air defense capability and increased survivability characteristics. To allow adequate time to mature the design and thoroughly evaluate design alternatives, the PB18 budget defers the FFG(X) contract award to fiscal year 2020. A revised acquisition strategy will be developed to conduct a full and open competition using existing designs in fiscal year 2020, vice doing a down-select of the existing LCS variants."
NAVSEA's regulations and rules base needs a major overhaul so that a foreign design can be built more "as is." Current NAVSEA regulations automatically force many changes. Consider just that old INSURV requirement often ignored in the actual inspection that says the height from deck to overhead must be X inches and that the ship's actual height from deck to overhead is three inches too short. That gets ignored in an INSURV on a ship in service, but imagine it being applied to an existing foreign design and the sheer number of changes it could cause? Its easy to see the change from 80% to 15% of the existing design still remaining in the final USN product.
RE: the politics--if the Democrats are slow-walking this because of the politics, it's understandable from an electoral point of view--while we here may understand the longstanding and bipartisan nature of the issues plaguing the American navy, the average voter has a tendency to blame problems on whoever happens to be in charge when he hears about them, and the administration understands this.
Of course, it's still playing silly games with national security for the sake of domestic politics, but I honestly think that most of the people in DC don't really believe that China is an actual threat to the international order, and are hoping to bluff and bluster until the consequences of the PRC getting old before it gets rich kick in. The possibility that Xi Jinping might decide to strike before that is one that they cannot percieve.
It should be a nonpartisan matter, but it isn't. The left does not wish the US to be able to defend itself, but does want social welfare. The first is a constitutional duty of the Federal Government, but the latter is not permitted by that same document. The left is lawless, and much of the so called right is no better.
"The left does not wish the US to be able to defend itself,"
That's not quite true. The left is under the impression that the US does not <i>need</i> to defend itself, that our current defense establishment is a solution in search of a problem, and that no one would want to attack us if our foreign policy weren't so fundamentally problematic.
Now, you know and I know that this is based on fundamentally wrongheaded notions, but most of these people have not studied actual history.
That is Projectionist NONSENSE . The MAGA House would Not Fund UKRAINE for Months , thus Affecting the FEBA . The MAGA House Wood Not Approve a Border Bill after they helped Negotiate the Bill because Sir Donald, who is NOT a Part of the Current Govt , Torpedoed the Bill for a 2024 Political Campaign Reason . & yet the MAGA House Cries about the Border ...even though they choose to Vote against their Own Bill . These R Just 2 Examples of the Ongoing National Political Blame Game...that DOES NOT SOLVE ANY ISSUES or PROBLEMS.
As House Member? I would have salvoed torpedoes at the bill as well.
The fiasco was created by Biden's Executive Orders, status quo could have returned by reinstating the previous Executive Order's. The Bill was a joke that still allowed illegals in.
In D C , No One gets Everything they Want . This " FIASCO " was Years in the making . See MIAMI & the Cuban Refugee Influx of the 60's on . & the HAITIANS...etc...etc . Problems Need to be BILATERALLY SOLVED ...Not Continuously Pushed into the Future .
Sure . Your " Opinion " is Now the Replacement for Factual Reality . Facts R Not Debateable . They R Simplee FACTS . Always Disparage the Other Party . Never be Specific in Ones Arguement / Discussion of their OPINION . The Only way to Attempt to Solve this Border Crisis is FEDERAL LEGISLATION , Not Temporary Executive Orders ....Butt U Knew that . Ignore that COVID was Part of the Equation of what was going on . WHO is this BOGEYMAN..." THE LEFT " ...anyway ??? I Don't Know . Do You actually know ?
Not my opinion. Those of us that lived through the period of 1960 until know, have been able read the headlines and articles and watch how they acted. You're simply being silly.
I Remember the CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS & Where I was when JFK was Assassinated . I Do Appreciate what the Navy means to Global Defense . ENTERPRISE 360...DRACHINFEL about IRON BOTTOM Sound . Extrodinary Stories of Sacrifice. I have only a ROK Tactical USAF Background . I do Not Dispute at All Your Naval Strategic Experience . Thank You for Replying / Scolding me . It makes me Drink More Coffee & Theoretically ' Wake Up '. Maybe I will actually get Something Done Today while you & your friends are Formulating Future Global Military Deterence Strategies . ...SERIOUSLEE.
To me? It’s all a uni-party. I can no longer see things black and white and pretend we are a two party system. We are simply being raped by both sides. Now as to the extent that this commission can actually make some progress in a head sea? I reserve my comments because my resting bitch face gives my thoughts away.
We need reform and I have little faith moving forward.
It's too late. Either the balloon goes up before any significant changes can be identified and effectuated OR conditions will have changed so much that any recommendations are already out of date.
We do need 2 or 3 plans. Right now w ship conversions and updates that can be bolted on. Then what use for small, easily built ships and aircraft in numbers. Then the big, long term shift like a newbuild strategy for carriers to make the fleet more flexible.
Sal, I am more optimistic than you. It not that this is all politics, that would be the negative view. The reality is that they just don't care. They just don't. They will care when a naval ship is sunk and several hundred sailors are dead or dying. Until then, just rearranging the deck chairs. They will extend it a year or two or three and it won't matter at that point.
Great post! Your image of the convening location is hopefully tongue in cheek. They need to convene in a shipyard conference room and speak to some high quality, high integrity folks with the full grasp of the issue.
Is there anything to suggest that the Navy is even interested in this answer? The Navy appears to be wholly invested in their own pursuit of technical wizardry while the mundane task of actually maintaining the fleet we possess today is an epic disaster. The current state of our public shipyards and continuing lack of necessary dry dock capacity are producing backlogs that are breathtaking in scope & duration. There is an urgency we face today brought on by years of prioritizing resources to the new and shiny rather than building the public infrastructure we need to maintain a 21st century fleet.
It's not uncommon for real word circumstances to throw long held assumptions into complete disarray. That happens. And to your torpedo analogy, the problem was identified and remedied eventually. However, Today's Navy likes to go big in that department by sinking billions into something that is deeply flawed conceptually, see the LCS program. And when it comes to "new tech," well who better than the Navy to press ahead with allowing numerous "first of its kind" tech to be installed in the 1st Ford class carrier while ignoring the need for proper ground test facilities for that tech a-priori and validating the tech before it gets installed on a ship. Or the DDG-1000's that incorporates an entirely new electrical distribution and power system for propulsion but again... no ground testing facilities to validate the engineering beforehand. Oh no... press on with concurrent engineering wizardry and stuff that new tech into a new hull and just get open your checkbook to spend billions trying to get things to work out finally. Leading to years of delays and huge cost overruns. Then there is the matter of logistics and infrastructure which both get a "vote" on how things work out in the present. Where we find ourselves today is a monumental embarrassment of epic proportions.
Sweet summer child, do you actually think that they will get anything done? Congress doesn't care about the Navy any more, they care about how much of it is made in THEIR constituencies, how much pork they can wring out of it, and how good it will look come election time. No one cares if the navy dies, or gets our ass kicked back across the Pacific. Even if the commission can come up with a reasonable and actionable plan (unlikely) by the time all the pork farmers are done with it, it will be unrecognizable.
Vela is concerning...he's got a background of working on the Dem National Committee, that's some prime deep-state influence and gamesmanship territory; who knows what ulterior motives he could bring.
On the flip-side, I believe he is one of the last remaining blue-dog Dems or, what would resemble one in this current political environment. This may be one of the few 'safe-spaces' for him while retaining a D affiliation and keeping his toes in the national political waters.
There's an old saying that you just don't want to know what goes on in a factory that makes sausage. Well, I do. I hope the members of the commission have the freedom to discuss the process once they have finished and their product is offered up. Best of good fortune to all the members.
And… IF commission actually is seated and IF the commission agrees to provide recommendations and IF the commission forwards those recommendations to congress, then what?! Seriously? Oh I know the push back answer…. “We got to try”. Or my favorite “what are you doing about it besides bitching?”
Seen the movie. Know how it ends. I’m not gonna be remotely hopeful despite a member of the porch’s participation.
But does the navy get any representation on this committee? All I see are the usual politicians.
I would Imagine the USN will have Lots of Opportunities to Present their Input .
Please forgive the pessimism. It's become impossible to believe that two bloated and partisan classes, politicians and DoD civil service nomenklatura are capable of rising to the occasion. (I'd be happy to be wrong.)
Late edit: From USNI News
"Meanwhile, Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro told the Senate Armed Services Committee earlier this month that Fincantieri underbid the frigate contract.
“Maybe if the Constellation, if that had not been underbid during the previous administration and hadn’t been delayed from the very beginning and they came in with a best value price for it, and the Navy had not accepted it back then, we’d be in a better place with regards to the frigate as well,” Del Toro told the panel."
I guess the 88,000 NAVSEA employees, Admirals, PEO, and other program managers were all incompetent and partisan in the last Administration.
Of course!
It's Trump's fault!!!
Just goes to show how unserious a Secretary of the Navy Del Toro is.
"...hadn’t been delayed from the very beginning..."
That's is cute since the decision to incorporate delays into the program goes back to the previous-previous-Administration, which is easily documented by the testimony of Sean Stackley before Congress.
From SASC hearing 01DEC2016. The built-in delay was specifically intended to retain funds for continued little crappy ship construction so that we could get the full 40 of those transformational seaframes.
https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-114shrg28323/html/CHRG-114shrg28323.htm
"Senator Sessions: Will the cost of the remaining units in the LCS program be increased by down-selecting the LCS before reaching the currently planned 40 vessels?
Secretary Stackley: Increasingly complex operating environments, emphasis on distributed maritime operations, and the need for combat logistics force escort-capable ships to free up large surface combatants for high-end missions has prompted the Navy to reevaluate frigate requirements and pursue a Guided Missile Frigate (FFG(X)) having local air defense capability and increased survivability characteristics. To allow adequate time to mature the design and thoroughly evaluate design alternatives, the PB18 budget defers the FFG(X) contract award to fiscal year 2020. A revised acquisition strategy will be developed to conduct a full and open competition using existing designs in fiscal year 2020, vice doing a down-select of the existing LCS variants."
NAVSEA's regulations and rules base needs a major overhaul so that a foreign design can be built more "as is." Current NAVSEA regulations automatically force many changes. Consider just that old INSURV requirement often ignored in the actual inspection that says the height from deck to overhead must be X inches and that the ship's actual height from deck to overhead is three inches too short. That gets ignored in an INSURV on a ship in service, but imagine it being applied to an existing foreign design and the sheer number of changes it could cause? Its easy to see the change from 80% to 15% of the existing design still remaining in the final USN product.
Or Over Ruled . See 2025 Project Political Plans .
RE: the politics--if the Democrats are slow-walking this because of the politics, it's understandable from an electoral point of view--while we here may understand the longstanding and bipartisan nature of the issues plaguing the American navy, the average voter has a tendency to blame problems on whoever happens to be in charge when he hears about them, and the administration understands this.
Of course, it's still playing silly games with national security for the sake of domestic politics, but I honestly think that most of the people in DC don't really believe that China is an actual threat to the international order, and are hoping to bluff and bluster until the consequences of the PRC getting old before it gets rich kick in. The possibility that Xi Jinping might decide to strike before that is one that they cannot percieve.
It should be a nonpartisan matter, but it isn't. The left does not wish the US to be able to defend itself, but does want social welfare. The first is a constitutional duty of the Federal Government, but the latter is not permitted by that same document. The left is lawless, and much of the so called right is no better.
"The left does not wish the US to be able to defend itself,"
That's not quite true. The left is under the impression that the US does not <i>need</i> to defend itself, that our current defense establishment is a solution in search of a problem, and that no one would want to attack us if our foreign policy weren't so fundamentally problematic.
Now, you know and I know that this is based on fundamentally wrongheaded notions, but most of these people have not studied actual history.
That is Projectionist NONSENSE . The MAGA House would Not Fund UKRAINE for Months , thus Affecting the FEBA . The MAGA House Wood Not Approve a Border Bill after they helped Negotiate the Bill because Sir Donald, who is NOT a Part of the Current Govt , Torpedoed the Bill for a 2024 Political Campaign Reason . & yet the MAGA House Cries about the Border ...even though they choose to Vote against their Own Bill . These R Just 2 Examples of the Ongoing National Political Blame Game...that DOES NOT SOLVE ANY ISSUES or PROBLEMS.
As House Member? I would have salvoed torpedoes at the bill as well.
The fiasco was created by Biden's Executive Orders, status quo could have returned by reinstating the previous Executive Order's. The Bill was a joke that still allowed illegals in.
In D C , No One gets Everything they Want . This " FIASCO " was Years in the making . See MIAMI & the Cuban Refugee Influx of the 60's on . & the HAITIANS...etc...etc . Problems Need to be BILATERALLY SOLVED ...Not Continuously Pushed into the Future .
Revoking the executive orders was delibrate and malicious malfeasance.
& the Constitutional Right of Any Elected President . Like Revoking is ' Accidental ' ???
delibrate and malicious malfeasance
You have no idea what you are talking about. I simply stated what the left has been doing my entre life. There is no projection to it at all.
Sure . Your " Opinion " is Now the Replacement for Factual Reality . Facts R Not Debateable . They R Simplee FACTS . Always Disparage the Other Party . Never be Specific in Ones Arguement / Discussion of their OPINION . The Only way to Attempt to Solve this Border Crisis is FEDERAL LEGISLATION , Not Temporary Executive Orders ....Butt U Knew that . Ignore that COVID was Part of the Equation of what was going on . WHO is this BOGEYMAN..." THE LEFT " ...anyway ??? I Don't Know . Do You actually know ?
Not my opinion. Those of us that lived through the period of 1960 until know, have been able read the headlines and articles and watch how they acted. You're simply being silly.
I Remember the CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS & Where I was when JFK was Assassinated . I Do Appreciate what the Navy means to Global Defense . ENTERPRISE 360...DRACHINFEL about IRON BOTTOM Sound . Extrodinary Stories of Sacrifice. I have only a ROK Tactical USAF Background . I do Not Dispute at All Your Naval Strategic Experience . Thank You for Replying / Scolding me . It makes me Drink More Coffee & Theoretically ' Wake Up '. Maybe I will actually get Something Done Today while you & your friends are Formulating Future Global Military Deterence Strategies . ...SERIOUSLEE.
Actually I Did know what I was Talking about . Your Stereo Typing Opinion . That is all .
Illegal immigration is already illegal. The laws are already there. That's why we already have the INS, Border Patrol, etc.; to enforce existing law.
Thanks for raising the awareness of this effort. I will work like a one -armed paper-hanger to make a difference.
Thank you for doing a thankless job.
To me? It’s all a uni-party. I can no longer see things black and white and pretend we are a two party system. We are simply being raped by both sides. Now as to the extent that this commission can actually make some progress in a head sea? I reserve my comments because my resting bitch face gives my thoughts away.
We need reform and I have little faith moving forward.
As the South Park lads might say, we're all Indiana Jones and the D's and R's are Spielberg and Lucas.
It's too late. Either the balloon goes up before any significant changes can be identified and effectuated OR conditions will have changed so much that any recommendations are already out of date.
We do need 2 or 3 plans. Right now w ship conversions and updates that can be bolted on. Then what use for small, easily built ships and aircraft in numbers. Then the big, long term shift like a newbuild strategy for carriers to make the fleet more flexible.
Indecision is key to flexibility.
May I Use this Quote ???
Just steal it like the rest of us do.
Sal, I am more optimistic than you. It not that this is all politics, that would be the negative view. The reality is that they just don't care. They just don't. They will care when a naval ship is sunk and several hundred sailors are dead or dying. Until then, just rearranging the deck chairs. They will extend it a year or two or three and it won't matter at that point.
They (meaning the politicians) won't care after ships are sunk either, except insofar as they perceive a threat to reelection.
All good. The "new blood under 50" could use more emphasis.
Great post! Your image of the convening location is hopefully tongue in cheek. They need to convene in a shipyard conference room and speak to some high quality, high integrity folks with the full grasp of the issue.
Public podcast. Get Sal M to host. I think his following is the biggest at this point.
Completely Agree!
Smell is the fastest sense in the brain...
In my day, we referred to the Speed of Dark.
Is there anything to suggest that the Navy is even interested in this answer? The Navy appears to be wholly invested in their own pursuit of technical wizardry while the mundane task of actually maintaining the fleet we possess today is an epic disaster. The current state of our public shipyards and continuing lack of necessary dry dock capacity are producing backlogs that are breathtaking in scope & duration. There is an urgency we face today brought on by years of prioritizing resources to the new and shiny rather than building the public infrastructure we need to maintain a 21st century fleet.
BILLY MITCHELL ...Ring any Bells ??? Malfuntioning Torpedoes in 1941 1942 1943..." CLUNK "...then No KaBoom ???
It's not uncommon for real word circumstances to throw long held assumptions into complete disarray. That happens. And to your torpedo analogy, the problem was identified and remedied eventually. However, Today's Navy likes to go big in that department by sinking billions into something that is deeply flawed conceptually, see the LCS program. And when it comes to "new tech," well who better than the Navy to press ahead with allowing numerous "first of its kind" tech to be installed in the 1st Ford class carrier while ignoring the need for proper ground test facilities for that tech a-priori and validating the tech before it gets installed on a ship. Or the DDG-1000's that incorporates an entirely new electrical distribution and power system for propulsion but again... no ground testing facilities to validate the engineering beforehand. Oh no... press on with concurrent engineering wizardry and stuff that new tech into a new hull and just get open your checkbook to spend billions trying to get things to work out finally. Leading to years of delays and huge cost overruns. Then there is the matter of logistics and infrastructure which both get a "vote" on how things work out in the present. Where we find ourselves today is a monumental embarrassment of epic proportions.
Sweet summer child, do you actually think that they will get anything done? Congress doesn't care about the Navy any more, they care about how much of it is made in THEIR constituencies, how much pork they can wring out of it, and how good it will look come election time. No one cares if the navy dies, or gets our ass kicked back across the Pacific. Even if the commission can come up with a reasonable and actionable plan (unlikely) by the time all the pork farmers are done with it, it will be unrecognizable.
Like pissing on a forest fire and expecting results.
Vela is concerning...he's got a background of working on the Dem National Committee, that's some prime deep-state influence and gamesmanship territory; who knows what ulterior motives he could bring.
On the flip-side, I believe he is one of the last remaining blue-dog Dems or, what would resemble one in this current political environment. This may be one of the few 'safe-spaces' for him while retaining a D affiliation and keeping his toes in the national political waters.
There's an old saying that you just don't want to know what goes on in a factory that makes sausage. Well, I do. I hope the members of the commission have the freedom to discuss the process once they have finished and their product is offered up. Best of good fortune to all the members.
And… IF commission actually is seated and IF the commission agrees to provide recommendations and IF the commission forwards those recommendations to congress, then what?! Seriously? Oh I know the push back answer…. “We got to try”. Or my favorite “what are you doing about it besides bitching?”
Seen the movie. Know how it ends. I’m not gonna be remotely hopeful despite a member of the porch’s participation.
Well, at least CDR McGrath got a seat at the table. Maybe he will get a couple of good catered lunches out of it if nothing else.