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Yelnya (where most of the buildup is at present) isn't exactly on the border with the Ukraine by any stretch. The emphasis on the Union State over the last few months presents a different scenario: where Russian forces in co-operation with Belarus occupy the vast majority of the country (and possibly the Baltics -- Lithuania in particular) and force the occupied nations into the Union State after popular referenda.

Either way, with saber rattling and economic warfare already ramping up? The Russians could very well establish their "near abroad" by force and dare others to test them. NATO might not bleed for Kiev or Mariupol... but will they bleed for Tallinn, Riga and Vilnius during the winter as Russian gas heats is used to heat their homes?

Anyone else remember that feeling heading into finals when you haven't done much reading, haven't payed attention, and marched through October in a bit of a haze? Not sure either Russia or China are seeing much to respect in US-EU resolve as of late -- and frankly, why would they?

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