As Admiral Miquez said on returning with the Eisenhower Strike Group said this is the National Command Authority. They had aggressive plans to take out the shooters and systems, but the NCA didn't want to upset the Iranians and Russians. So there you go. https://www.yahoo.com/news/navy-commander-oversaw-carrier-strike-043302966.html
America has allowed the bully on the block, whose mastermind, conveniently, happens to be half black, to steal its most recent Presidential Election, as well as truly crucial midterm elections.
With inept appointees like kombolo, it’s little wonder we’ve developed the most innovative fighting force in the history of the world, but are unable to utilize it, fearing our enemies might get the wrong message, and that our only ally in the Middle East might receive a glimmer of hope.
CDR Sal, very nicely laid out. Human behavior 101: You get more behavior that you reward, you get less of what you punish. The "they" (the royal "they") feel comfortable impacting shipping the way they are because "they" benefit from it (reward) and have little to no fear of retribution (punishment). You clearly establish and reiterate the well known chain of actions taken (the "who" is a bit murky, but logically only "a bit"), the impact to shipping (and benefit to "some" parties), and the lack of consequence. Why, indeed, you rightfully ask, are there few if any consequences? Does our national leadership feel it is in the national interest for shipping rates to rise and timeliness to fall? Are we determined to look the other way to get some sort of nuclear deal with a non-Arab regional power? Why? Qui bono? The world wonders...and you are asking the right question(s).
The "reward" for the Houthi leadership, Hamas, and similar groups is a generational Jihad against their enemies. You are projecting your western, capitalist view of "rewards" and "punishments" on another culture. You'd think after Osama Bin Laden baited us into a generation of unproductive war and strategic decline, we might learn. But nope, the dogma and emotion continues to override the logic.
Deploying a CBG to the Red Sea to handle this problem is taking the bait and an admission of our strategic ineptitude. The fact is the Houthis, Iran, Russia and China all forward their strategic goals by drawing us into the Red Sea. And by doing so we do nothing but continue and accelerate the strategic down spiral we have been in since at least 2003 by which they benefit.
I guess I don't understand why we don't, at this point, have counterbattery that can track the Houthi weaponry back to its point of origin in real time and reduce its launcher, crew, and everything within a 100 yard radius to hot dust? Is it a lack of technology or a lack of will to employ it?
A better question is if it is wise to deploy it. What do we really gain?
The Houthis have done a remarkable job of enforcement and message sending with minimal damage. 83 attacks, yet only three ships destroyed and four seamen killed?
"enforcement and message sending " So it should be our policy to cede that passage to the Chinese and greatly increase shipping costs for the Western world? Just abandon the concept of freedom of navigation, then. And when the Chinese decide to shut down the Straits of Malacca?
"People’s Republic of China has done an exceptional job establishing herself on the world stage. In a slow, steady progress, she has earned the respect, cooperation, and yes—fear—that is due a power people have confidence is not easily or cheaply disrespected."
The Chinese have earned it. They have outworked, out-negotiated, out-strategized, and out-muscled the US.
So your grand strategy is to just give up? "Welp, looks like we done got outmaneuvered, Jeb. Wave the white flag." Pretty mamahuhu just IMO.
Personally I prefer the attitude taken by the likes of Dick Bong, Butch O'Hare, Duke Cunningham, etc. - turn into the threat and meet it head on. Yes, I'm using a tight tactical analogy in a large-scale strategic context, but.
IMO simply ceding control of half the world's commercial output and transport to a despotic, genocidal, tyrannical regime just because they have temporarily outmaneuvered a weak administration is as bad an idea today as it was in 1938.
Well of course they do. But they take a certain amount of time to break down and they only move so fast. So a radius can be determined. Pulverize everything within that radius, EVERY time, EVERY launch.
THAT will be "enforcement and message sending." Hopefully to the point where the locals see them start to set up and say, "Oh no you didn't, not in OUR back yard!" and give them a beatdown. Probably not terribly likely, but one can hope. At the very least it changes the risk-reward calculation.
I can not wait to see your oh so blithe reaction to war on American "homelands". C'mon de train, c'mon... see if y'all back it up in your soon to be Civil Unrest... yanks are the biggest war mongers on the planet, but you've grown fat, lazy, tranny. Now you have 20,000,000 pet eating child soldiers to kill. 🙋 where's me popcorn? 😁
Not militarily feasible. We don’t have the missile inventory or production to support such a lopsided equation. And scrambling fighter jets is crazy expensive and affects readiness for bigger fish. We would need to carpet bomb with B-52s to create the effect you’re looking for and that would just drive the enemy underground and then we’d need nukes. Go watch some videos of Russian FABs exploding in Ukraine. The blast radius is impressive but look at how much is left intact. Escalation will not solve this.
wiki "The automatic identification system (AIS) is an automatic tracking system that uses transceivers on ships and is used by vessel traffic services (VTS). When satellites are used to receive AIS signatures, the term Satellite-AIS (S-AIS) is used. AIS information supplements marine radar, which continues to be the primary method of collision avoidance for water transport."
Why not run convoys and not let anyone run through alone. Egypt would help set the rules.
I went back to my Navy home in Newport and went boating. The commercial guys are absolutely dependent on AIS. The integration of AIS with the chart plotter is pretty darned impressive; you get data on a sailboat's computer screen that rivals a fully manned cold war CIC.
I'm sure insurance companies would freak out at spoofing. But, you could give convoy AIS numbers for the voyage; no names, no nationality; give each ship a two-letter NATO name. "Gulf Oscar. 045 at 9 knots."
The USN has been protecting shipping from pirates since "the shores of Tripoli," send them out to do what they do best; in a convoy.
Capability vs. will to utilize that capability... if we want to be treated as a serious nation, we need to act like a serious nation. Platitude after platitude... it all seems so clear. And yet - National Command Authority - where the buck actually stops - is timid and indecisive, has been for years and shows no signs of changing. So here we are.
Note that the Russian shadow fleet (created as a result of Western diplomats and their oil price cap) transits freely to the environmental messes known as crude oil refineries in countries willing to ignore where their feedstock comes from. Those same Western countries "maintaining" their quasi-ban on Russian fossil fuels then happily buy up the distillates and import them into their countries. Must have fuel to make their ice cubes and keep the lights on for their cocktail parties. Bizzaro world!
China and to a lesser extent these days, Russia get a pass because they tend to retaliate kinetically, forcefully, biblically, and most importantly, immediately.
Discretion is the better part of valor. We might win the battle, but we would need to have a plan to win the war before removing the Houthi missile batteries.
The Houthis have also done a masterful job of controlling passage with minimal physical damage. 83 attacks, and only four sailors killed? Only three ships destroyed/incapacitated? I find that impressive.
That is a great point. Huge economic advantage for the PRC and more dollars to funnel into the PLAN. Thanks for making all of us smarter.
clear as a bell.
add in the latest, just two days ago.......Russia and China to conduct joint Naval exercises.
Hard to tell an exercise from the real thing if the real thing is well orchestrated to look like an exercise.
Our legalistic ROE. The Romans figured out how to deal with pirates 2000 years ago.
We can't make Yemen a desert and call it peace. It already is a desert.
As Admiral Miquez said on returning with the Eisenhower Strike Group said this is the National Command Authority. They had aggressive plans to take out the shooters and systems, but the NCA didn't want to upset the Iranians and Russians. So there you go. https://www.yahoo.com/news/navy-commander-oversaw-carrier-strike-043302966.html
That’s weakness
America has allowed the bully on the block, whose mastermind, conveniently, happens to be half black, to steal its most recent Presidential Election, as well as truly crucial midterm elections.
With inept appointees like kombolo, it’s little wonder we’ve developed the most innovative fighting force in the history of the world, but are unable to utilize it, fearing our enemies might get the wrong message, and that our only ally in the Middle East might receive a glimmer of hope.
CDR Sal, very nicely laid out. Human behavior 101: You get more behavior that you reward, you get less of what you punish. The "they" (the royal "they") feel comfortable impacting shipping the way they are because "they" benefit from it (reward) and have little to no fear of retribution (punishment). You clearly establish and reiterate the well known chain of actions taken (the "who" is a bit murky, but logically only "a bit"), the impact to shipping (and benefit to "some" parties), and the lack of consequence. Why, indeed, you rightfully ask, are there few if any consequences? Does our national leadership feel it is in the national interest for shipping rates to rise and timeliness to fall? Are we determined to look the other way to get some sort of nuclear deal with a non-Arab regional power? Why? Qui bono? The world wonders...and you are asking the right question(s).
The "reward" for the Houthi leadership, Hamas, and similar groups is a generational Jihad against their enemies. You are projecting your western, capitalist view of "rewards" and "punishments" on another culture. You'd think after Osama Bin Laden baited us into a generation of unproductive war and strategic decline, we might learn. But nope, the dogma and emotion continues to override the logic.
Deploying a CBG to the Red Sea to handle this problem is taking the bait and an admission of our strategic ineptitude. The fact is the Houthis, Iran, Russia and China all forward their strategic goals by drawing us into the Red Sea. And by doing so we do nothing but continue and accelerate the strategic down spiral we have been in since at least 2003 by which they benefit.
And not responding with force was a wise response.
Plus it would be sunk if its jets were used to attack!
Can we drop a 1,000 lb bomb on each missile launch location?
Actually, I believe the answer is yes.
Would that sufficiently alter Houthi behavior?
BTW, Egyptian canal revenue is WAY down, to the detriment of their national budget. They have skin in the game.
SO does China. They are the ones really pulling the strings to slowly peel away our base of power. https://defense-update.com/20240912_aerospace-weekly-news.html
Waste of a bomb. Use it on a power station or pier instead.
Mine yemen's ports.
Egypt's experience in Yemen under Nasser was not good.
I guess I don't understand why we don't, at this point, have counterbattery that can track the Houthi weaponry back to its point of origin in real time and reduce its launcher, crew, and everything within a 100 yard radius to hot dust? Is it a lack of technology or a lack of will to employ it?
We have the technology.
Does the US have the tech (& the Will) to defend EVERY Saud oil well..? Coz that's the fkn equation.
A better question is if it is wise to deploy it. What do we really gain?
The Houthis have done a remarkable job of enforcement and message sending with minimal damage. 83 attacks, yet only three ships destroyed and four seamen killed?
"enforcement and message sending " So it should be our policy to cede that passage to the Chinese and greatly increase shipping costs for the Western world? Just abandon the concept of freedom of navigation, then. And when the Chinese decide to shut down the Straits of Malacca?
What choice do we have? As the Commander wrote,
"People’s Republic of China has done an exceptional job establishing herself on the world stage. In a slow, steady progress, she has earned the respect, cooperation, and yes—fear—that is due a power people have confidence is not easily or cheaply disrespected."
The Chinese have earned it. They have outworked, out-negotiated, out-strategized, and out-muscled the US.
So your grand strategy is to just give up? "Welp, looks like we done got outmaneuvered, Jeb. Wave the white flag." Pretty mamahuhu just IMO.
Personally I prefer the attitude taken by the likes of Dick Bong, Butch O'Hare, Duke Cunningham, etc. - turn into the threat and meet it head on. Yes, I'm using a tight tactical analogy in a large-scale strategic context, but.
IMO simply ceding control of half the world's commercial output and transport to a despotic, genocidal, tyrannical regime just because they have temporarily outmaneuvered a weak administration is as bad an idea today as it was in 1938.
My grand strategy is to have a grand strategy, not to treat the world as a nail, just because I have a great hammer in my hand.
Perhaps they move the launcher after firing.
Well of course they do. But they take a certain amount of time to break down and they only move so fast. So a radius can be determined. Pulverize everything within that radius, EVERY time, EVERY launch.
THAT will be "enforcement and message sending." Hopefully to the point where the locals see them start to set up and say, "Oh no you didn't, not in OUR back yard!" and give them a beatdown. Probably not terribly likely, but one can hope. At the very least it changes the risk-reward calculation.
I can not wait to see your oh so blithe reaction to war on American "homelands". C'mon de train, c'mon... see if y'all back it up in your soon to be Civil Unrest... yanks are the biggest war mongers on the planet, but you've grown fat, lazy, tranny. Now you have 20,000,000 pet eating child soldiers to kill. 🙋 where's me popcorn? 😁
Not militarily feasible. We don’t have the missile inventory or production to support such a lopsided equation. And scrambling fighter jets is crazy expensive and affects readiness for bigger fish. We would need to carpet bomb with B-52s to create the effect you’re looking for and that would just drive the enemy underground and then we’d need nukes. Go watch some videos of Russian FABs exploding in Ukraine. The blast radius is impressive but look at how much is left intact. Escalation will not solve this.
Yes
How are the Houthis identifying which flag the ships are under? We ought to be able to remove /mask their ID capability fairly easily.
wiki "The automatic identification system (AIS) is an automatic tracking system that uses transceivers on ships and is used by vessel traffic services (VTS). When satellites are used to receive AIS signatures, the term Satellite-AIS (S-AIS) is used. AIS information supplements marine radar, which continues to be the primary method of collision avoidance for water transport."
Actually I knew that. So mask/spoof the AIS when in the area. The Russians, Iranians, and Chinese do it all the time.
But what about the international rules based order that we are beholden to? /sarc
And 15 min later, the Houthi CIC will be shooting at all targets not broadcasting Russ or CCP signals, if they aren't doing that already
Why not run convoys and not let anyone run through alone. Egypt would help set the rules.
I went back to my Navy home in Newport and went boating. The commercial guys are absolutely dependent on AIS. The integration of AIS with the chart plotter is pretty darned impressive; you get data on a sailboat's computer screen that rivals a fully manned cold war CIC.
I'm sure insurance companies would freak out at spoofing. But, you could give convoy AIS numbers for the voyage; no names, no nationality; give each ship a two-letter NATO name. "Gulf Oscar. 045 at 9 knots."
The USN has been protecting shipping from pirates since "the shores of Tripoli," send them out to do what they do best; in a convoy.
The Marines enter the chat :)
The Marines are never far from our hearts.
The simplest answer is they get their gouge from the Iranians who do business with China and Russia.
The Iranian ships that locate and track targets and likely provide command and control probably have something to do with this.
Maybe they have a desk at the Baltic Exhange in London.
Praying Mantis Part 2.... not so hard when you have leaders who lead. Impossible for the current crew.
So....what ships should do is sail in close company to Chinese or Russian owned/flagged vessels.
In the short term. In the long term, the Houthi portions of Yemen need to be bombed and bombed and bombed until they scream for the bombings to stop.
Pretty sure that’s not how commercial shopping works?
Isn’t that an admission of defeat as well? Hiding under Chinas skirts
Excellent post. Time to dust off your Apr. 2, 2021 post and Lambert's The Neptune Factor.
https://substack.com/@cdrsalamander/p-34672353
https://www.usni.org/press/books/neptune-factor
Capability vs. will to utilize that capability... if we want to be treated as a serious nation, we need to act like a serious nation. Platitude after platitude... it all seems so clear. And yet - National Command Authority - where the buck actually stops - is timid and indecisive, has been for years and shows no signs of changing. So here we are.
Note that the Russian shadow fleet (created as a result of Western diplomats and their oil price cap) transits freely to the environmental messes known as crude oil refineries in countries willing to ignore where their feedstock comes from. Those same Western countries "maintaining" their quasi-ban on Russian fossil fuels then happily buy up the distillates and import them into their countries. Must have fuel to make their ice cubes and keep the lights on for their cocktail parties. Bizzaro world!
“Why are 4th-rate non-state actors comfortable in challenging the free world on the high seas?”
---------
Very simple answer > You get more of what you tolerate.
China and to a lesser extent these days, Russia get a pass because they tend to retaliate kinetically, forcefully, biblically, and most importantly, immediately.
Discretion is the better part of valor. We might win the battle, but we would need to have a plan to win the war before removing the Houthi missile batteries.
The Houthis have also done a masterful job of controlling passage with minimal physical damage. 83 attacks, and only four sailors killed? Only three ships destroyed/incapacitated? I find that impressive.