The Attacks in the Red Sea Have a Pattern

just look at it with clear eyes

Are you starting to see it, what is in play here? Do you want to see it?

The more interesting question: Why?

The hard question: What to do about it?

The numbers tell the story:

No Russian-owned ship has been attacked by Houthis while transiting the Red Sea for 10 months, with only one incident involving a Chinese-owned ship, according to an analysis of 83 attacks.

According to data from the UN’s trade and shipping agency, of the 83 ships targeted between December and September 2, 56 had ownership links to the UK, US or Europe, including 24 from Greece. All but one of the 24 Greek-owned ships were either bulk carriers or tankers. The world’s largest ship-owning country accounted for 30% of all ships attacked, according to the analysis, yet makes up 17% by tonnage.

Even for first rate naval powers, good intel and ship tracking can be an imperfect science. I’m surprised that only one PRC and Russian ship have been hit.

You don’t need to be a paranoid N2 to see that signal. It’s also important to note that the US Navy and its allied ships are not intercepting all of the missiles and drones:

Four sailors have been killed, two ships have been sunk and a third, the Greek-flagged suezmax tanker Sounion, is in danger.

Next I want you to ponder this little statistic:

The Houthis launched attacks in the Red Sea in November, protesting Israel’s war on Gaza, with overall transits down 62% as ships divert around the Cape of Good Hope.

If something is bucking that trend and matches up with other I&W, the pattern really starts to break out from the ambient noise.

Growing confidence in the safety of China-owned ships is encouraging some shipowners to undertake Red Sea voyages and others to expand on existing services. 

This has been the worst kept secret since late spring - mostly because it forces a lot of uncomfortable questions.

From May:

…the safest place to transit the Red Sea is now onboard Chinese-owned ships.

The combination of the Houthi’s public agreement with China to not target their shipping and the likely private reprimand after striking the M/V Huang Pu sets up a scenario whereby Chinese shipping will be getting a free pass through the Red Sea. That provides China a significant competitive advantage at the precise moment its economy is starting to falter. There is a way, however, to both remove that advantage and force China to abide by its international obligations.

The linked article above has a nice passive-aggressive “Panda Express” idea, but I’m really not sure there is anything that can be done but to give a nod of respect to the diplomatic and foreign policy community of the People’s Republic of China.

Since we wandered into the exact swamp that Osama bin Laden wanted us to 23 years ago, with a weak hand and no historical legacy advantage to build off of, the People’s Republic of China has done an exceptional job establishing herself on the world stage. In a slow, steady progress, she has earned the respect, cooperation, and yes—fear—that is due a power people have confidence is not easily or cheaply disrespected.

The question really shouldn’t be, “Why is China being given a pass” as much as, “Why are 4th-rate non-state actors comfortable in challenging the free world on the high seas?”

Exploring that will bring wisdom.

h/t Sal Mercogliano