I see this as just another check in the box for the diversity crowd. I'm not saying she's not qualified to be CNO, it's just that the media hacks will make a big deal about the first female CNO and forget that our Navy has already been rapidly surpassed in wartime capability by the PRC. Also it would be nice if the next CNO can "unwoke" the Navy and get some painting done before all the hulls rot away to nothing.
You really need to read the post. You're emoting. An objective review of her record proves otherwise. She's more objectively qualified than Gilday was when he was brought in. Ditto Richardson.
Maybe so. I've grown weary of the politics of social experimentation that has ruined what was once a world-class Navy. Sadly the only thing that might turn our Navy around is defeat in combat. That has a way of making all the other garbage like DEI and Drag Queen shows suddenly seem less important.
Sadly, I think what would follow in the wake of defeat would not be "we lost due to diversity" but "we lost because we did not have ENOUGH diversity" and then we would double down on DEI.
Heard that very line of reasoning a few times and still hope it is an effort to better posture for promotion. As in WWII we need to get the Nimitz and Halsey types to the front.
One of the more damaging aspects of the social politics stuff is that it makes people skeptical of a member of one of the "privileged" groups being promoted. It poisons the well for people in one of those groups who are actually qualified.
I embarrassed to say that Im struggling to not be one of "those" people. Having said that, Im hoping to see some big improvements over the previous tenants of the office (which admittedly shouldnt be very hard).
I read what you listed as the nominee’s flag billets. Legit and varied. Good. Of equal concern to me is a CNO nominee’s early days. Does her experience base include crawling bilges, fighting for divisional maintenance money, and maybe standing TAO watch port and starboard in sketchy situations? Because I think ALL good CNOs need that background as well. I am quite out of the loop these days, so I ask this question neutrally and hopefully without bias. It is the question I would ask of anyone nominated to the post, be they male, female, black, white, or a purple dwarf.
Admittedly, I had the same knee-jerk reaction. Ill openly admit to being a bit of a dinosaur, in that women aboard ship and the environment it created was a big part of the reason I was a "one and done" sailor. But, with your trusted assessment Cdr, Im going to watch with an absolutely open mind and fingers crossed. Nothing else matters except all of the serious work that needs to be done....
Gundog has a legitimate point. This is the Biden administration we're talking about. It doesn't matter how qualified she may be, she wasn't chosen for that reason. She was chosen because she's a woman - full stop. And while she may have experience in senior command, what I want to see is how woke she'll be. Worse than Gilday? Worse than C.Q. Brown? I guess we'll see but as things stand I'm hoping to be pleasantly surprised but not holding my breath.
Some wag made the comment that ADM Paparo would have been CNO if he had come out as trans. That was meant as a joke but there's a lot of truth to that. That's how the current regime thinks.
The fact that she is qualified is not the point. The perception will be "you got the job because your a woman" will be trailing behind her. Like African Americans the fact that you are black and attain a high prestigious job always carries the sniff of affirmative action hire no matter how more than qualified the candidate is in this poisonous atmosphere.
Know of a brilliant black SWO who would have been an outstanding flag but would not go to DC and suffer the BS and that was before it got as bad as it is. My point is no matter what a potential flag “looks” like the pool of talent is shrinking, reflected in our recruiting, and what is chosen to enter the pipeline.
We have been saying "Change is needed" for so long it seems to be an echo carried down through the decades. The next CNO won't do it because the political establishment doesn't want it.
I will stick to the drum I have been beating for 20 years: Change is forced on large organizations from the outside.
To expect a product of the system to make revolutionary changes to it is wildly optimistic. Next CNO will do what the last ones have done, shut up and color.
"..the greatest threat is the long-dwell nomenklatura in a commuting distance of The Pentagon and The Hill who do not see their job as adjusting their responsibilities to support the CNO.."
Admiral Paparo is an outspoken China hawk. Still, this might be a blessing. If a naval campaign kicks off in the western Pacific, it could be more valuable to have him in/near theatre than in DC.
One can reasonably guess that he saved far more Americans in the Solomons and elsewhere than the 1200 killed of Samar. And by that measure? You should just as critical of Nimitz and his campaign in the Gilberts which killed a like number.
That wasn’t the point of Nimitz communication and you’re being disingenuous regarding Halsey and his impact. He was a very good delegator of tasking and picked his commanders well.
Slightly OT, I've seen chatter about the CCP having run a massive reforestation effort, only to now be chopping down tees to plant grain on marginal land. The concern is that the CCP fears near-term embargo of grain via ship movement. If that thread hangs together, it would seem like the confrontation will happen on her watch...
Or, not. China depends on peace to feed its people. The fact of the matter is that the peaceful system of world trade depends on the pax americana and the U.S. Navy. Our ships insured that China's fleet could move around the world unmolested. As we stand down, someone has to stand up or China starves.
China's aggressive naval development is a response to our shrinking navy.
“China's aggressive naval development is a response to our shrinking navy.” But not for the reasons you posit. China will only be peaceful as long as it can buy businessmen and politicians to feed its expansionist goals of displacing the United States as the biggest player on the world stage. That is the stated policy of Xi and the CCP.
So what, we all puff ourselves up. Sure they say they want to be the biggest fish in the pond, who doesn't? What Xi and the politburo really want is to survive. China cannot exist without trade. They are dependent on the peaceful system of global trade to feed the population. The masses have grown used to an improvement in their lot which can only be fed by trade.
If the global trade system collapses, China collapses. Our shrinking Navy is a direct threat to China because they need a globe-spanning navy to insure the sea lanes are open. They are expanding their navy because we are contracting ours.
While we cannot be the policeman to the world, meddling in the affairs of every nation, we damm well can be the Coast Guardsman to the world. We are as much an island nation as Britain, and the wealth of our nation is in trade. A 600 ship U.S. Navy is barely large enough to keep the sea lanes open, and it should be the bottom size of our fleet.
I agree with everything you are saying except for their motivation. The motivation, like most others, is multifaceted and at the expense of the freedom and economic well being of others. They are acting in their own best self-interest. Nothing altruistic going on here.
Good point. It’s simplistic to assign one motive to a nation as complex as China. What does frustrate me is the inflexible anti-China rhetoric that passes for analysis. We make zero effort to understand why China does what she does. I’m sure that we often misinterpret acts China sees as self-defense as agression. Take for example naval expansion. If you were Xi, and leading a nation absolutely dependent on trade, and the nation whose Navy enforced the world-wide system of trade rolled out the LCS as the symbol of the new fleet, what would you do?
Were I Xi, I’d say “the Americans have lost the plot. We better build our own Navy ‘cause the U. S. Navy is in decline.”
Because the PRC is not simply trying to defend their trade lines. They have revanchist aspirations on their neighbor's territory and sea lanes that support global commerce. Neighbors and sea lanes that the US depends on for its economy.
In addition, if the CCP becomes "the biggest fish in the pond", that pond is going to become a lot more hostile to human rights and the rule of law. And the CCP has already demonstrated that it is willing to infiltrate other countries to restrict the human rights of their citizens.
Likely China is limiting exports to support the price floor for their farmers. Setting their TRQ for wheat to ~9.5MMT is insanely low. That is a fraction of what is utilized in their livestock feed. If this was just about flour, in a war you would see lower grade wheat destined for livestock feed be turned into flour. That would work for the first growing season. The bigger issue would be the risk of loss of fertilizer imports from sea trade but would come into play until the following growing season.
"Post forecasts a slight increase in MY2023/24 wheat consumption for food use. Around 75 percent of harvested wheat used for flour production each year. Wheat flour consumption is directly linked with economic growth. With China reopening from COVID, PRC officials are focusing on recovering and expanding consumption. Officials recently set the 2023 GDP growth target at 5 percent which should support industry’s projection that flour mill operation rates increase by 5-8 percent to 48-52 percent of capacity. The diet of many young people in continues to shift to consumption of more convenient and on-the-go foods such as bread and bakery products - which will continue to drive growth in the coming year."
I’d like to see a good study on how to cut off thier oil, but let them try to take Taiwan before acting on the idea. As it did with the Japanese, such a move woul immediately result in war. We need to bleed them out as has been done to Russia. And if they try to call in the debt tell them fine, turn over the islands to ANSEAN and follow all international law. They won’t and our debt is no more.
rather the sub and mine campaign that brought the Japanese economy to its knees. The USNI needs some articles on ' Lessons Leaned from Operation Pocket Money, and 'next-gen' naval mine kits. Same with a couple of NWC sims
Which requires you do SEAD/DEAD. Which you need to base far enough away to be outside the range of their missile units so they don't blow up the aircraft on the ground given the lack of base hardening. Which appears to be Australia or Hawaii. Can we run SEAD from 8,000 to 9,000 KM? Can 2-3 carriers do that and survive? And not run out of the needed munitions?
This is not Iraq, or the US. They actually have an integrated air defense network. And they have been watching what is going on in Ukraine. And if you succeeded and killed tens of millions of Chinese they are likely to return the favor. How does the war go when every west coast and pacific base gets destroyed?
blow the 3 Gorges and end up with 10-100 million dead Chinese? They and the world might use the terms like WMD and Genocide. It should trigger a CCP nuke response
From what I've read, 3 gorges is already badly stressed. Probably poor quality concrete, but the cause is not really important. The solid hits on certain parts of the dam would cause a breach.
China is neither the Norks, nor is it Russia/USSR. We would be fighting against a peer on their home ground, and at the end of our 6,000+ mile supply line that we cannot support.
Who said anything about a "land war(s)"? War over Taiwan is going to be primarily a maritime, aerospace, cyber and information domain affair. If you're fighting that war on land that is not an ISland, then you're fighting it wrong.
The analysis from several well known China analysts is that Xi believes the U.S. bond market is going to collapse and the U.S. economy with it which will trigger our government to go to war with China as a distraction. So he is doing that to build up food stocks.
China is not going to invade Taiwan. The Taiwan government is even more infiltrated by communists than ours is. If they invade anything it will be either the Philippines or more likely Vietnam.
Yes. I never thought I would see almost the exact same scenario playout in the pacific that led up to WWII. Replace imperial Japan with communist China and the parallels are striking. Guam or maybe Japan may turn out to be this centuries Pearl Harbor.
Or Xi is building up foodstuffs because he is preparing for war, because the PRC's debt crisis combined with demographic headwinds is pushing him in an invade now or never position.
China faces a problem that has been exacerbated by its successful and rapid industrialization. Industries require a concentration of workers. These workers imply urbanization. The combination of increased wages and disconnection from traditional villages means that what is determined to be an acceptable diet has changed. China's agricultural challenges are less about caloric intake and more about the adoption of more Western dietary expectations. Analysis of China agricultural imports must account for the reality that certain types of foods must be replicated domestically or risked during any type of conflict with the West.
"In the late 1990s, Premier Zhu Rongji implemented the “return farmland to forest” policy after seeing the horrendous ecological effects of the overexploitation of farmland during the 1998 flood. The goal was to protect China’s forestry resources and improve overall ecology. Under this directive, cutting down forests for farmland was strictly banned, and each local government received “forest restoration targets.”"
"Former U.S. President Ronald Reagan offered his “lesson number one about America” in his farewell address to the nation: “All great change in America begins at the dinner table.” The same is true in China. One of the first steps of the Maoist revolution was forced collective dining, but reform and opening up of the country revolutionized Chinese households’ dinner options with an array of diverse delicacies from Dutch cheese and Norwegian salmon to Mexican avocados and Rainier cherries."
"“I guess the authorities have their own concerns. We can’t rely on others for food if there’s a war or something, can we? So, they’re stressing the importance of self-reliance,” said Fang Xueyong. “There’s a need to increase the size of arable land, as it dropped quickly in recent years.”"
I sure hope you're right, and she rates every chance to do it right. My only cavil is that, according to pretty good sources, the White House overrode Navy/DOD to force her selection. Why, other than the obvious?
That is the problem with framing choices as EEO goals. Even for those with excellent qualifications, the taint of the EEO tarbrush gasses the room.
Is she a good choice? Maybe. She has the right quals.
Will she be a good choice? Maybe
Was she an EEO choice? Yep. And that will never go away.
Sandra Day O'Conner was by all accounts a respectable US Supreme Court Justice. But, she will always be remembered as the first woman so appointed. Current Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson seems she will be remembered as an EEO appointee. We all recall Kara Hultgreen too.
Even Winsome Sears, the lieutenant governor of Virginia, called Jackson an affirmative action hire. When one black female says that about another then rest assured it's true.
She's not. Virginia elects their LT GOV separately from the Governor. She won her own election instead of riding the coattails of the candidate for Chief Executive like Kamala Harris.
That's my take. We need someone like him overseeing operations and shaping warplanes. Having him in the Beltway, full-time, explaining every budgetary line-item while looking to glad-hand and curry favor with the swamp-dwellers is a waste of his talent and position.
How can she be anything other than a product of the filter of the current dysfunctional system that transforms any junior officer into a political creature? How do we not get a buffoon like Milley as an output given the way the current promotion system operates? Not stepping on rakes? The woke rakes? The demigender rakes? The don't make waves rakes? The Obama purge was brutally thorough. I don't think any moles made it through.
Maybe she will prove to need an eyepatch and get a telepathic treecat and lead us to victory. I certainly hope so. But that was science fiction. Real life doesn't work that way.
Not a bad beginning baseline, Billy. My first LPO, RD1 Melvin Waters, told me back in 1966, "Here's the deal, you wanna be successful...show up on time with a shoeshine, a haircut, and a good attitude." It got reinforced by the Leading Seaman when I got assigned to clean the forward head two weeks in a row and whined about it. He punched my lights out when I said, "Hey, that isn't...". The forward head remained my cleaning assignment until I promoted to RD2 about a year later.
I got that assignment when I was sent to a minesweeper in Charleston in '75 for my annual two week AT assignment. I was the handy guy and would be with them a short time, so I was a good target, and I turned to.
The XO came on his rounds later that morning and when he looked around said, "This head is clean! Whoever did this, give him the day off." For the rest of the two weeks, they left me alone.
The first day I was assigned to the forward head I asked SN Kowalski where the cleaning gear was. He showed me where the swab & bucket were and handed me a green weenie and a container of powdered cleanser. I asked him where the rubber gloves were. "Gloves?", he said. He grabbed the green weenie and cleanser from me and started vigorously scrubbing a urinal. "That's how it's done, pussy", he said. I thought about buying my own rubber gloves but my base pay was $100 a month and I just couldn't afford it. Repulsive as it was, that Navy issue cleanser ensured I never got an infection. Life got way better when I made RD2 and transferred. It was smooth sailing ever after, my dues having been paid.
Let's not forget that the CNO works for Del Toro and Austin who in the minds of many here have proven themselves antithetical to fixing many of the USN problems while dutifully promoting the agenda of the President who appointed them to their positions and gave them their marching orders.
Any progress made by any CNO under those conditions, however slight should be praised.
Never ascribe to malice what covered by incompetence.
Here is the bio of this Administration's Leading economic expert/advisor.
Bernstein graduated with a bachelor's degree in music from the Manhattan School of Music where he studied double bass with Orin O'Brien. He also earned a Master of Social Work from Hunter College as well as a master's degree in philosophy and a PhD in social welfare from Columbia University.
Damn. The more I think about this the more disappointed I am. I was really hoping Admiral Kirby would get the job. We don't stand a chance above, on or under the water. Our only chance is to psyop the PLA Navy. Disinformation warfare is the future. Nobody does it better than the Kirbmonster.
Recently spent a few years with her in Naples (C6F) including seeing her in Chapel most Sundays. She (and her family) are the real deal. She was tough but fair in briefs, a genuine problem solver, a rounded leader, and a grounded human being. I'd sail into a battle with her any day. I have no doubt she will handle the Puzzle Palace just fine.
By the way, ADM (Sel) Koehler was my COS in Djibouti for a year. Another decent bloke that I'm glad to see do well.
My ADM Franchetti story was when I met her when she was a midshipman. During a readiness workup off SDGO in 1980, she was assigned as my escort when I boarded an LST (from our AE), to give a MIW brief. I had her card for years but now can't find it after a gillion HHG moves. Followed her career for years. I wish her well... she is very qualified IMHO.
And the incoming CNO has a degree in journalism. That sounds like a plus to me.
And departmental honors in History, which is a huge plus in my opinion.
Perhaps - are we hiring for a PAO billet?
Se has to sell a story about seapower to Congress and the people. A PAO skill set might be helpful.
I think Admiral McRaven did, too...
This is the right take for CNO to make the #1 priority...”We need more ship repair capabilities and parts to enable a more combat ready fleet.”
I see this as just another check in the box for the diversity crowd. I'm not saying she's not qualified to be CNO, it's just that the media hacks will make a big deal about the first female CNO and forget that our Navy has already been rapidly surpassed in wartime capability by the PRC. Also it would be nice if the next CNO can "unwoke" the Navy and get some painting done before all the hulls rot away to nothing.
You really need to read the post. You're emoting. An objective review of her record proves otherwise. She's more objectively qualified than Gilday was when he was brought in. Ditto Richardson.
Maybe so. I've grown weary of the politics of social experimentation that has ruined what was once a world-class Navy. Sadly the only thing that might turn our Navy around is defeat in combat. That has a way of making all the other garbage like DEI and Drag Queen shows suddenly seem less important.
Sadly, I think what would follow in the wake of defeat would not be "we lost due to diversity" but "we lost because we did not have ENOUGH diversity" and then we would double down on DEI.
Heard that very line of reasoning a few times and still hope it is an effort to better posture for promotion. As in WWII we need to get the Nimitz and Halsey types to the front.
One of the more damaging aspects of the social politics stuff is that it makes people skeptical of a member of one of the "privileged" groups being promoted. It poisons the well for people in one of those groups who are actually qualified.
Well said. Fortunately, not an issue in her case.
Actually, it is.
I embarrassed to say that Im struggling to not be one of "those" people. Having said that, Im hoping to see some big improvements over the previous tenants of the office (which admittedly shouldnt be very hard).
Concur.
I read what you listed as the nominee’s flag billets. Legit and varied. Good. Of equal concern to me is a CNO nominee’s early days. Does her experience base include crawling bilges, fighting for divisional maintenance money, and maybe standing TAO watch port and starboard in sketchy situations? Because I think ALL good CNOs need that background as well. I am quite out of the loop these days, so I ask this question neutrally and hopefully without bias. It is the question I would ask of anyone nominated to the post, be they male, female, black, white, or a purple dwarf.
She was on a Spruance Class. She likely has time in the chair.
Admittedly, I had the same knee-jerk reaction. Ill openly admit to being a bit of a dinosaur, in that women aboard ship and the environment it created was a big part of the reason I was a "one and done" sailor. But, with your trusted assessment Cdr, Im going to watch with an absolutely open mind and fingers crossed. Nothing else matters except all of the serious work that needs to be done....
To be fair Phib, my dog is more qualified than Gilday. But your point is solid.
Gundog has a legitimate point. This is the Biden administration we're talking about. It doesn't matter how qualified she may be, she wasn't chosen for that reason. She was chosen because she's a woman - full stop. And while she may have experience in senior command, what I want to see is how woke she'll be. Worse than Gilday? Worse than C.Q. Brown? I guess we'll see but as things stand I'm hoping to be pleasantly surprised but not holding my breath.
Some wag made the comment that ADM Paparo would have been CNO if he had come out as trans. That was meant as a joke but there's a lot of truth to that. That's how the current regime thinks.
The fact that she is qualified is not the point. The perception will be "you got the job because your a woman" will be trailing behind her. Like African Americans the fact that you are black and attain a high prestigious job always carries the sniff of affirmative action hire no matter how more than qualified the candidate is in this poisonous atmosphere.
Know of a brilliant black SWO who would have been an outstanding flag but would not go to DC and suffer the BS and that was before it got as bad as it is. My point is no matter what a potential flag “looks” like the pool of talent is shrinking, reflected in our recruiting, and what is chosen to enter the pipeline.
A judicious CNO could utilize her div crowd apparent bona fides to her advantage at key times before Congress.
We have been saying "Change is needed" for so long it seems to be an echo carried down through the decades. The next CNO won't do it because the political establishment doesn't want it.
I will stick to the drum I have been beating for 20 years: Change is forced on large organizations from the outside.
To expect a product of the system to make revolutionary changes to it is wildly optimistic. Next CNO will do what the last ones have done, shut up and color.
When I worked at opnav earlier this year everybody seemed to like and respect her a great deal.
Her lack of experience on the budget side was a worry for me, but Kilby has that well-covered.
"..the greatest threat is the long-dwell nomenklatura in a commuting distance of The Pentagon and The Hill who do not see their job as adjusting their responsibilities to support the CNO.."
Truer words were ne'er spoken..........
Thanks for a great summary and outlook. 4 nominations of the right people for the right jobs.
Admiral Paparo is an outspoken China hawk. Still, this might be a blessing. If a naval campaign kicks off in the western Pacific, it could be more valuable to have him in/near theatre than in DC.
If a naval campaign kicks off in the western Pacific, it will matter little who's in charge there.
Gormley vs Halsey, Guadalcanal.
Yeah, that was back when the US had the industrial capacity, not so much anymore.
Anyway, Halsey is not all he's made up to be.
The world wonders.
Halsey was aggressive. That creates mistakes.
If you were a Marine grunt on Guadalcanal, who would you prefer?
Let me check with Taffy 3.
One can reasonably guess that he saved far more Americans in the Solomons and elsewhere than the 1200 killed of Samar. And by that measure? You should just as critical of Nimitz and his campaign in the Gilberts which killed a like number.
2020 hindsight is a thing.
He used Taffy to a great effect and it was a tactical victory that lead to a strategic victory.
That wasn’t the point of Nimitz communication and you’re being disingenuous regarding Halsey and his impact. He was a very good delegator of tasking and picked his commanders well.
Spruance vs. Halsey, Midway
Spruance vs. Halsey, Philippine Sea
Command decisions must be made by the CO, and the outcome will depend greatly on who that person is.
We will see. She cannot be worse than the goblin filling the (small) suit now.
But I find it interesting that neither the CinC, or SECDEF, or SECNAV could be arsed to make the announcement themselves.
Navy doesn't do much against St. Vladimir, savior of the Army budget.
TBF, as a US Air Force advocate, the Chinese and Russians are our opponents, the Navy is our enemy
We don't care much about the guys with the silly hats
"The Department of The Boat People".
The US Marine Corps Uber
If it wasn't for the Navy Admirals, the Army would've straggled the Marine Corps in the 1950s.
Late 40s, but you're otherwise correct.
US CHair Force
Sure, let your envy and jealousy course through your bodies...
Do you know why I joined the US Air Force?
Because my scores were high enough, I could. Really pissed off the CPO that wanted to put me in nuc school.
Sailors have more fun.
I understand sailors invented sex....
But it really didn't take off until the marines tried it with women.
Glad you made the right decision.
Then why are you here?
Intel gathering
Lol. True.
Slightly OT, I've seen chatter about the CCP having run a massive reforestation effort, only to now be chopping down tees to plant grain on marginal land. The concern is that the CCP fears near-term embargo of grain via ship movement. If that thread hangs together, it would seem like the confrontation will happen on her watch...
All signs point to conflict.
Or, not. China depends on peace to feed its people. The fact of the matter is that the peaceful system of world trade depends on the pax americana and the U.S. Navy. Our ships insured that China's fleet could move around the world unmolested. As we stand down, someone has to stand up or China starves.
China's aggressive naval development is a response to our shrinking navy.
“China's aggressive naval development is a response to our shrinking navy.” But not for the reasons you posit. China will only be peaceful as long as it can buy businessmen and politicians to feed its expansionist goals of displacing the United States as the biggest player on the world stage. That is the stated policy of Xi and the CCP.
So what, we all puff ourselves up. Sure they say they want to be the biggest fish in the pond, who doesn't? What Xi and the politburo really want is to survive. China cannot exist without trade. They are dependent on the peaceful system of global trade to feed the population. The masses have grown used to an improvement in their lot which can only be fed by trade.
If the global trade system collapses, China collapses. Our shrinking Navy is a direct threat to China because they need a globe-spanning navy to insure the sea lanes are open. They are expanding their navy because we are contracting ours.
While we cannot be the policeman to the world, meddling in the affairs of every nation, we damm well can be the Coast Guardsman to the world. We are as much an island nation as Britain, and the wealth of our nation is in trade. A 600 ship U.S. Navy is barely large enough to keep the sea lanes open, and it should be the bottom size of our fleet.
Tom,
I agree with everything you are saying except for their motivation. The motivation, like most others, is multifaceted and at the expense of the freedom and economic well being of others. They are acting in their own best self-interest. Nothing altruistic going on here.
Good point. It’s simplistic to assign one motive to a nation as complex as China. What does frustrate me is the inflexible anti-China rhetoric that passes for analysis. We make zero effort to understand why China does what she does. I’m sure that we often misinterpret acts China sees as self-defense as agression. Take for example naval expansion. If you were Xi, and leading a nation absolutely dependent on trade, and the nation whose Navy enforced the world-wide system of trade rolled out the LCS as the symbol of the new fleet, what would you do?
Were I Xi, I’d say “the Americans have lost the plot. We better build our own Navy ‘cause the U. S. Navy is in decline.”
Because the PRC is not simply trying to defend their trade lines. They have revanchist aspirations on their neighbor's territory and sea lanes that support global commerce. Neighbors and sea lanes that the US depends on for its economy.
In addition, if the CCP becomes "the biggest fish in the pond", that pond is going to become a lot more hostile to human rights and the rule of law. And the CCP has already demonstrated that it is willing to infiltrate other countries to restrict the human rights of their citizens.
Agree. They are so arrogant they tell us, slowly pushing. Very TS.
Then, why is the PRC hording grain? It's not because they're afraid of piracy in the Gulf of Aden.
Likely China is limiting exports to support the price floor for their farmers. Setting their TRQ for wheat to ~9.5MMT is insanely low. That is a fraction of what is utilized in their livestock feed. If this was just about flour, in a war you would see lower grade wheat destined for livestock feed be turned into flour. That would work for the first growing season. The bigger issue would be the risk of loss of fertilizer imports from sea trade but would come into play until the following growing season.
USDA report from April
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Grain%20and%20Feed%20Annual_Beijing_China%20-%20People%27s%20Republic%20of_CH2023-0045.pdf
"Post forecasts a slight increase in MY2023/24 wheat consumption for food use. Around 75 percent of harvested wheat used for flour production each year. Wheat flour consumption is directly linked with economic growth. With China reopening from COVID, PRC officials are focusing on recovering and expanding consumption. Officials recently set the 2023 GDP growth target at 5 percent which should support industry’s projection that flour mill operation rates increase by 5-8 percent to 48-52 percent of capacity. The diet of many young people in continues to shift to consumption of more convenient and on-the-go foods such as bread and bakery products - which will continue to drive growth in the coming year."
Because they intend to engage the United States and once and for all settle this.
I’d like to see a good study on how to cut off thier oil, but let them try to take Taiwan before acting on the idea. As it did with the Japanese, such a move woul immediately result in war. We need to bleed them out as has been done to Russia. And if they try to call in the debt tell them fine, turn over the islands to ANSEAN and follow all international law. They won’t and our debt is no more.
Time to study applying the air campaign that forced North Korea to the bargaining table....
rather the sub and mine campaign that brought the Japanese economy to its knees. The USNI needs some articles on ' Lessons Leaned from Operation Pocket Money, and 'next-gen' naval mine kits. Same with a couple of NWC sims
And we need to use our retiring Admirals as expendable munitions, as the CCP does with their messaging.
Let some of ours make noises about blockades, etc, etc. We can publicly disavow them, but the messages get sent and received.
Literally, not figuratively.
and send the expended 9mm brass along with an invoice?
I was thinking more like Major Kong
Japan is an island; China, like North Korea, can get overland supplies. So take out the dams and dikes.
Which requires you do SEAD/DEAD. Which you need to base far enough away to be outside the range of their missile units so they don't blow up the aircraft on the ground given the lack of base hardening. Which appears to be Australia or Hawaii. Can we run SEAD from 8,000 to 9,000 KM? Can 2-3 carriers do that and survive? And not run out of the needed munitions?
No, it does not. Target the dams with non-nuclear missiles
And it seems it would not take much to take out the three-gorges dam
This is not Iraq, or the US. They actually have an integrated air defense network. And they have been watching what is going on in Ukraine. And if you succeeded and killed tens of millions of Chinese they are likely to return the favor. How does the war go when every west coast and pacific base gets destroyed?
blow the 3 Gorges and end up with 10-100 million dead Chinese? They and the world might use the terms like WMD and Genocide. It should trigger a CCP nuke response
From what I've read, 3 gorges is already badly stressed. Probably poor quality concrete, but the cause is not really important. The solid hits on certain parts of the dam would cause a breach.
TLAM will find a way.
The bombers will always get through.
Indeed! That is why I am of the opinion that the capital ship of the next war is the SSN and the modified Ohios.
China is neither the Norks, nor is it Russia/USSR. We would be fighting against a peer on their home ground, and at the end of our 6,000+ mile supply line that we cannot support.
We have such great success with Asian land wars.
That's why you attempt to starve them.
Not the first time the US fell victim to one of the classic blunders...
The scars from that misadventure are still with the country and many individuals.
Who said anything about a "land war(s)"? War over Taiwan is going to be primarily a maritime, aerospace, cyber and information domain affair. If you're fighting that war on land that is not an ISland, then you're fighting it wrong.
The analysis from several well known China analysts is that Xi believes the U.S. bond market is going to collapse and the U.S. economy with it which will trigger our government to go to war with China as a distraction. So he is doing that to build up food stocks.
Not building foodstuffs to cover an international embargo after invading Taiwan?
China is not going to invade Taiwan. The Taiwan government is even more infiltrated by communists than ours is. If they invade anything it will be either the Philippines or more likely Vietnam.
Interesting times, eh?
Yes. I never thought I would see almost the exact same scenario playout in the pacific that led up to WWII. Replace imperial Japan with communist China and the parallels are striking. Guam or maybe Japan may turn out to be this centuries Pearl Harbor.
The new Co-Prosperity Sphere.
"Infiltrated by communists" and yet pursuing policies that embarrass and aggravate the CCP?
Australia.
Xi should mind his own market, all those empty buildings...
Or Xi is building up foodstuffs because he is preparing for war, because the PRC's debt crisis combined with demographic headwinds is pushing him in an invade now or never position.
Follow the changes on the flow of oil too.
The CCP has been hording grain for a year. I think Xi's alea iacta est moment was last summer.
China faces a problem that has been exacerbated by its successful and rapid industrialization. Industries require a concentration of workers. These workers imply urbanization. The combination of increased wages and disconnection from traditional villages means that what is determined to be an acceptable diet has changed. China's agricultural challenges are less about caloric intake and more about the adoption of more Western dietary expectations. Analysis of China agricultural imports must account for the reality that certain types of foods must be replicated domestically or risked during any type of conflict with the West.
Some backstory links from the last six months:
https://thediplomat.com/2023/06/what-is-the-impact-of-chinas-new-rural-initiative/
"In the late 1990s, Premier Zhu Rongji implemented the “return farmland to forest” policy after seeing the horrendous ecological effects of the overexploitation of farmland during the 1998 flood. The goal was to protect China’s forestry resources and improve overall ecology. Under this directive, cutting down forests for farmland was strictly banned, and each local government received “forest restoration targets.”"
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/27/china-xi-agriculture-tax/
"Former U.S. President Ronald Reagan offered his “lesson number one about America” in his farewell address to the nation: “All great change in America begins at the dinner table.” The same is true in China. One of the first steps of the Maoist revolution was forced collective dining, but reform and opening up of the country revolutionized Chinese households’ dinner options with an array of diverse delicacies from Dutch cheese and Norwegian salmon to Mexican avocados and Rainier cherries."
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3219939/how-chinas-farmland-reclamation-campaign-driving-aggressive-crop-expansions-and-land-use-crackdowns
"“I guess the authorities have their own concerns. We can’t rely on others for food if there’s a war or something, can we? So, they’re stressing the importance of self-reliance,” said Fang Xueyong. “There’s a need to increase the size of arable land, as it dropped quickly in recent years.”"
It will happen in the next 18 months.
I sure hope you're right, and she rates every chance to do it right. My only cavil is that, according to pretty good sources, the White House overrode Navy/DOD to force her selection. Why, other than the obvious?
That is my read, though Biden's reason for making the choice doesn't diminish her qualifications or being the appropriate person for the job.
That is the problem with framing choices as EEO goals. Even for those with excellent qualifications, the taint of the EEO tarbrush gasses the room.
Is she a good choice? Maybe. She has the right quals.
Will she be a good choice? Maybe
Was she an EEO choice? Yep. And that will never go away.
Sandra Day O'Conner was by all accounts a respectable US Supreme Court Justice. But, she will always be remembered as the first woman so appointed. Current Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson seems she will be remembered as an EEO appointee. We all recall Kara Hultgreen too.
Joe's record (Harris, Brown) is less than reassuring, maybe the third time is the charm?
Please, G-D.
Even Winsome Sears, the lieutenant governor of Virginia, called Jackson an affirmative action hire. When one black female says that about another then rest assured it's true.
And Ms. Sears is anything but...
She's not. Virginia elects their LT GOV separately from the Governor. She won her own election instead of riding the coattails of the candidate for Chief Executive like Kamala Harris.
That's what I said.
Even so, keeping Paparo slated for INDOPACOM is still the right call, even if probably done for the wrong reasons.
That's my take. We need someone like him overseeing operations and shaping warplanes. Having him in the Beltway, full-time, explaining every budgetary line-item while looking to glad-hand and curry favor with the swamp-dwellers is a waste of his talent and position.
It's been reported that the White House overrode SECDEF Austin himself.
How can she be anything other than a product of the filter of the current dysfunctional system that transforms any junior officer into a political creature? How do we not get a buffoon like Milley as an output given the way the current promotion system operates? Not stepping on rakes? The woke rakes? The demigender rakes? The don't make waves rakes? The Obama purge was brutally thorough. I don't think any moles made it through.
Maybe she will prove to need an eyepatch and get a telepathic treecat and lead us to victory. I certainly hope so. But that was science fiction. Real life doesn't work that way.
In my last few years in uniform I realized one gets far by not getting a DUI, keeping one's fly zipped and doing an adequate job.
Again Charlie Brown . . . . and again, and again and again.
Not a bad beginning baseline, Billy. My first LPO, RD1 Melvin Waters, told me back in 1966, "Here's the deal, you wanna be successful...show up on time with a shoeshine, a haircut, and a good attitude." It got reinforced by the Leading Seaman when I got assigned to clean the forward head two weeks in a row and whined about it. He punched my lights out when I said, "Hey, that isn't...". The forward head remained my cleaning assignment until I promoted to RD2 about a year later.
I got that assignment when I was sent to a minesweeper in Charleston in '75 for my annual two week AT assignment. I was the handy guy and would be with them a short time, so I was a good target, and I turned to.
The XO came on his rounds later that morning and when he looked around said, "This head is clean! Whoever did this, give him the day off." For the rest of the two weeks, they left me alone.
The first day I was assigned to the forward head I asked SN Kowalski where the cleaning gear was. He showed me where the swab & bucket were and handed me a green weenie and a container of powdered cleanser. I asked him where the rubber gloves were. "Gloves?", he said. He grabbed the green weenie and cleanser from me and started vigorously scrubbing a urinal. "That's how it's done, pussy", he said. I thought about buying my own rubber gloves but my base pay was $100 a month and I just couldn't afford it. Repulsive as it was, that Navy issue cleanser ensured I never got an infection. Life got way better when I made RD2 and transferred. It was smooth sailing ever after, my dues having been paid.
Current definition of 'adequate' seems to be "The paints on! Who cares if it wasn't taken down to bare metal and primered first."
Let's not forget that the CNO works for Del Toro and Austin who in the minds of many here have proven themselves antithetical to fixing many of the USN problems while dutifully promoting the agenda of the President who appointed them to their positions and gave them their marching orders.
Any progress made by any CNO under those conditions, however slight should be praised.
Any progress made by a CNO in the Xiao Bai Den administration will be slight, indeed. Decline and decay is his goal.
Never ascribe to malice what covered by incompetence.
Here is the bio of this Administration's Leading economic expert/advisor.
Bernstein graduated with a bachelor's degree in music from the Manhattan School of Music where he studied double bass with Orin O'Brien. He also earned a Master of Social Work from Hunter College as well as a master's degree in philosophy and a PhD in social welfare from Columbia University.
What about the current administration's combination of malice and incompetence?
Incompetence has undoubtedly been mixed with hubris.
It just keeps getting better!
Somewhere, someone in the current Administration is looking for someone to hold their beer.
Although Wendy Sherman is driving the PRC policy bus at state...
That was an interesting resume as well.
You left out the best part...But don't rule out malice. (attributed to Robert Heinlein)
Books authored by RH;
https://www.google.com/search?q=https://www.google.com/search?q=attributed+to+Robert+Heinlein&source=lmns&tbm=bks&bih=732&biw=1128&client=safari&hl=en-US&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj6--Hbv6-AAxVfDGIAHU2cAaIQ0pQJKAN6BAgBEAgattributed+to+Robert+Heinlein&source=lmns&tbm=bks&bih=732&biw=1128&client=safari&hl=en-US&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj6--Hbv6-AAxVfDGIAHU2cAaIQ0pQJKAN6BAgBEAg
He fits right in with all the jokers (Yellen, Powell) who coundn't or wouldn't see inflation coming. Yellen is a PhD econokmist, for what it's worth.
Shouldn't it be the Pei Bai Den administration?
Pei Tu Plei?
Damn. The more I think about this the more disappointed I am. I was really hoping Admiral Kirby would get the job. We don't stand a chance above, on or under the water. Our only chance is to psyop the PLA Navy. Disinformation warfare is the future. Nobody does it better than the Kirbmonster.
Kirby will be Vice CNO.
Recently spent a few years with her in Naples (C6F) including seeing her in Chapel most Sundays. She (and her family) are the real deal. She was tough but fair in briefs, a genuine problem solver, a rounded leader, and a grounded human being. I'd sail into a battle with her any day. I have no doubt she will handle the Puzzle Palace just fine.
By the way, ADM (Sel) Koehler was my COS in Djibouti for a year. Another decent bloke that I'm glad to see do well.
These are the mentions that make me feel much better about this...
My ADM Franchetti story was when I met her when she was a midshipman. During a readiness workup off SDGO in 1980, she was assigned as my escort when I boarded an LST (from our AE), to give a MIW brief. I had her card for years but now can't find it after a gillion HHG moves. Followed her career for years. I wish her well... she is very qualified IMHO.