The Cold Truth of the Russo-Ukrainian War

What did you expect, a short war?

As you would expect, the visit by the President of Ukraine to the USA generated a whole host of think pieces along the “Not Our War” to the “Slava Ukraini Forever” NPC spectrum. Might as well do an update here.

First of all, of course Zelensky is asking for more of everything faster. Were you in his position, would you do anything else?

“Existential” is a word perhaps a bit overused, but in this case it is accurate. Ukraine is approaching the end of the second year of a war against a larger power on not just a war of imperial conquest, but with the ultimate goal of eliminating Ukraine as an independent nation or even a separate people.

Perhaps history will deliver to us at some point the initial desired end state the Russians wanted when in February 2022 they resumed this phase of conquest that first started in 2014, but I think it is fair to say it was probably somewhere along the following spectrum of Courses of Action after the fall of Kiev/Kyiv and the following capitulation or collapse of Ukraine:

- COA A: Belarusianization. The territory +/- seized in 2014 ceded to the Russian Federation by a Ukrainian government friendly to and controlled by Moscow is installed.

- COA B: Rump Ukraine. All of present-day Ukraine except for what is generally described as “Western Ukraine” and roughly outlined by the post-WWI “West Ukrainian People’s Republic” east to include the Zhytomyr and Vinnytsia Oblasts, is ceded to the Russian Federation followed by the Belarusianization of the resulting rump-Ukraine.

- COA C: The Whole Holubtsi. Reaching into their imperial habit, the Russian Federation simply absorbs the entirety of Ukraine as a Greater Novorossiya. Large portions of heavily Ukrainian Galicia will see the deportation into Russia of a significant part of the problematic parts of the population and property offered to residents of Luhansk and Donetsk who suffered losses during the war. This will help secure the historically partisan friendly Carpathian area and as such, facilitate a more secure rear area to Russian forces moving up to the new frontier facing Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania. Moldova is absorbed as well.

Well, history didn’t fold out as the Russians wanted. There was no 3-day war. No 3-week war. No 3-month war either. Kiev remains in Ukrainian hands … but what about a 3-year war?

Despite all the pre-war metrics, the “expertise” of the Smartest People in the Room™, every wargame that would have been run at all our war colleges would have told us that there would not be a conventional war in Ukraine is finishing up its second and going in to its third year, but here we are.

They were all wrong.

A common problem, one that well pre-dates the invasion of Ukraine, is that we have shockingly well credentialed people of influence from both parties who have an inability to understand that Russians are not Westerners. They don't think like Westerners, though they may look like them.

The Russians have a distinct culture, history, and view of themselves and their place in history. The underperforming political, military, and diplomatic elite in the West - with few exceptions outside the former Warsaw Pact nations now in NATO - expect Russians to react in the same way and to the same degree to the incentives and disincentives that move needles and preferences in DC and Brussels.

Time is always on the side of Russia, which is one of the reasons the slow rolling of weapons to Ukraine has been an exercise of malpractice of the highest degree. You are either in or out.

Two years on, "we" still are not sending a clear signal. It is amazing, really; in military might, GDP, demographics and a whole host of other reasons, Russia should not be as resilient as they are ... which is why DC & Brussels are being played so hard. They still do not understand Russia.

Even after 1,000 years of experience, we have Western leaders who refuse to believe that the Russians are fundamentally different than the West is in the 21st Century. You can't put the cultural ability to absorb damage and brutal patience you cannot see in some metric that can go on a PPT slide.

What the Russians lack in so many other places, they make up for here. As such, this critical part of understanding Russian motivation keeps being missed. Yes to their economy and apocalyptic demographics. Yes to all that.

For all the reasons Russia continues to fight, so too do their Ukrainian brothers – demonstrating greater resilience and endurance that Western expectations.

The time for leaving Ukraine to its fate is long past. Yes, the West has a short attention span and is suffering under the dead hand of entrenched leaders with a defeatist mindset – but none of this is written.

Ukraine can still win – or at least something that can be called a win. It would help if the Russians had some internal issues that required more attention that Ukraine, but even then – all is not worth shrugging over.

Yes, I’ve seen the math - the metrics - but war is informed by math, but not defined within it.

At a relatively modest cost in our treasure and almost none of our blood, we are wearing down Russia’s ability to project power for a generation, perhaps two. Perhaps many more generations should demographic instability mate with political instability. The Ukrainians – facing the same economic and demographic challenges as the Russians – are up for the fight. There is no reason for more comfortable nations who have supported them so far to go wobbly at half-time.

So, what do we do? I think this point made by President Zelensky on February 25, 2022 remains the right answer.

The Ukrainian Air Force should already have at least 100 F-16s flying under their colors and the Ukrainian Army should have double that number of M1 Abrams per quarter (we have thousands). We should have taken the risk and sent them significant numbers of ATACMS over a year ago as well. Don't get me started about the Western European and N. American industrial base issues.

The nations of Western Europe should redouble the efforts to secure their east as well.

There are parts of their national consciousness that understand this.

Germany in parts is responsibly aware;

Germany may have to wage a defensive war against Russia in the future, German televisions news program Tagesschau reported on Dec. 9, citing Bundeswehr (German Armed Forces) Inspector General Carsten Breuer.

Breuer expressed concern about Russia's rearmament and the behavior of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, saying there will be no return to the times before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Germany will have to get used to the idea "that one day we might have to fight a defensive war," he said

Lithuania is clear eyed;

Lithuania must prepare for war with Russia and strengthen regional military cooperation, as Ukraine may not win the war, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis stated on Nov. 24, Polish outlet TVP reports.

Landsbergis was speaking during the presentation of a plan to prepare for a military threat from Russia.

"We must openly acknowledge that the support provided to Ukraine may not be enough to win the war," Landsbergis said.

He did not rule out that Ukraine would be forced to negotiate with Russia, and this would mean a victory for Russia.

"It will be the day when we start counting down the time to the next war. Russia’s war with another neighbor," the minister said.

Lithuania should wake up from the "pleasant stagnation of peace," urgently take measures to strengthen its defense and prepare for the "worst-case scenarios," Landsbergis said.

Poland has a bi-partisan understanding of what Russia is;

Donald Tusk was sworn in as Polish premier, marking a break from years of right-wing rule and Poland's vowed restoration of strong EU ties.

Ex-European Council president Tusk made his return as head of government in a coalition that succeeded the Law and Justice (PiS) party, which was at odds with the bloc since taking power in 2015.

Poland's previous government became embroiled in a row with Ukraine over grain exports, but among Mr Tusk's first acts as prime minister was a trip to Brussels for a summit to discuss new aid and EU talks for Kyiv.

Poland's Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski today stressed that supporting Ukraine would be a "priority" for the new administration.

"We will continue the policy of supporting Ukraine, both in defending against Russian imperialism and in its European aspirations," Mr Sikorski said.

Earlier this week, Mr Tusk slammed Western leaders for voicing "fatigue" with the situation in Ukraine, as aid packages for the war-torn country were being held up in the US and EU.

This is not the time for “fatigue.”

Yes, the United States has a greater concern west of the International Date Line. Yes, I have argued for a couple of decades that the USA should decrease its tendency to volunteer to be the world’s tripwire ashore … yes.

More than one thing can be true at a time.

There are a lot of people I respect who want to leave Ukraine to its fate for a whole host of reasons. People are entitled to hold differing opinions, but those opinions should not go unchallenged.

No one should fool themselves about what a Russian victory in Ukraine will bring. Everyone should fully know this; absent a super-volcano sized natural disaster or another civil war, there is nothing that would prevent the USA from being brought into another pan-European war should one break out – with or without NATO.

The best way to ensure another pan-European war is to allow a Russian victory in Ukraine.

My online record of support for Ukraine goes back to 2008. I’ve watched people who supported Ukrainian independence called everything from Nazis to “I support the latest thing” NPC leftists. I am in stark disagreement with friends on this topic, and find myself aligned with people who, well, don’t care all that much for my other opinions – but that does not change one bit what I see clearly.

Russia cannot be allowed a victory in Ukraine. If you value the greater peace in Europe in the future, you must support Ukraine in this war now.