The Demographics of the Russian Way of War

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Above are the various regions of Russia and its fertility rate. Replacement rate is 2.1.

One thing both Ukraine and Russia have in common in this war they are in, is that neither one of them have the demographic profile to fight one. Each family does not have more than one son. Very few families two or more children, and preciously few of them are ethnically Russian.

Below are the various oblasts/republics/okrugs that make up Russian. Names and geography always matter - especially when you an tie in ethnicity, so bookmark this for future use.

From the start of the Russo-Ukrainian War that started again in 2022, we have all read stories of Buryatia and Chechnya formations and how the Russians are … well … Russian in their call-ups.

There is an interesting story along those lines from Jamestown.org;

In its war against Ukraine, Moscow has identified finding additional “voluntary” manpower as a preconditions for avoiding mobilization and enflaming public discontent. In addition to various private military companies and other irregular formations, many Russian regions have started forming so-called “voluntary” battalions, with almost 40 now in operation. (Fedpress.ru, August 18, 2022; see EDM, April 4). These formations often consist of “volunteers” who are lured by financial incentives for themselves and their families, as many come from the poorest regions of Russia. Socioeconomic status and ethnic identity seem to drive the recruitment of these “volunteers.” In the Volga region, so-called “name battalions” (imennyje bataliony) have been formed in the Mari El Republic, Tatarstan, and Chuvashia (Fedpress.ru, August 18, 2022). Moscow’s disproportionate reliance on ethnically non-Russian people from the poorest regions reflects growing desperation in trying to replace heavy losses in Ukraine. It has also created the potential for regional violence should these “volunteers” continue to be thrown into the proverbial “meat grinder.”

• Mari El Republic:

  • Largest Ethnicity: Mari ( Finno-Ugric ethnicity), 40.1%

    • Percent of Population Russian: 30.7%

  • Fertility Rate: 1.75

• Chuvashia:

  • Largest Ethnicity: Chuvash (Turkic ethnicity), 63.7%

    • Percent of Population Russian: 52.5%

  • Fertility Rate: 1.65

• Tartarstan:

  • Largest Ethnicity: Tartar (Turkic ethnicity), 53.6%

    • Percent of Population Russian: 40.3%

  • Fertility Rate: 1.54

How do these places compare to Russia as an aggregate?

• Russia:

  • Largest Ethnicity: Russian (Slavic ethnicity), 80.1%

    • Second largest ethnic group: Tartars, 3.62%

  • Fertility Rate: 1.42

All three of these regions have significantly higher birthrates than Russia as a whole … and I would really like to see that broken out by ethnic group, but I can’t find that dataset. However, based on the cratered fertility rate in super-majority Russian territories, those republics’ Russians are probably pulling down their aggregate fertility rate.

Below you have the percent of ethnic Russians per region.

Could the Russians be deliberately trying to “cull” their non-Russian population by having them do a higher percentage of the dying, or is it more the case that these locations are simply the only place to find fighting aged men?

The longer this goes on - as more and more families give their only son to the war in Ukraine, the more social stress this has to impart on the Russian Republic.

One way or another - for both nations - on a family level and a national survival level; what an unmitigated and unnecessary horror this imperial war of conquest is.