Very interesting article. My thoughts go to how secure will Ru feel along the perimeter of her borders in the next decade or so as the consequences of their demographics fully unfolds?
your first map has fertility, and shows that Euro-Russia has low fertility, but births are fertility x population density.
My point being, the high fertility areas, beyond being the most non Russian are also low density, and the high density Russian areas are uniformly low fertility.
Very interesting. Reading the data I felt dirty. My thoughts on war have changed in the past few minutes, and I am unable to vocalize, or even arrange thoughts into something I can wrap my head around. I will have to read this again tomorrow.
The Wars of the Soviet Succession started in the early 1990s, and the West never really knew what it wanted. As the saying goes, when the West came to a fork in the road, they took it.
Sarotte's hagiography of NATO expansion "Not One Inch" documents the betrayal that the West felt with the violence of the first Russian attack into Chechnya. But Russia couldn't be expected to simply allow the complete breakdown of Russia, the Russian Federation, the historical imperial Russian project or some combination of the above, while they had combat power to stop it.
The borders of the Former Soviet Union were written for Soviet reasons. Often those are lost in the bureaucratic history of the Soviet Union. There isn't even much consensus on the basis of the 1954 Soviet Presidium decision to gift Crimea to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic (along with other additions.) Yet, like the OAU decision to freeze African borders to the tune of the probable loss of millions of lives, we in the West all accepted the post Soviet borders are permanently immutable, even though practically, culturally and politically, there was next to nothing "historical" about them. For the most part, it was was where the NKVD and Red Army ended the war in 1945, be it the end of Bessarabia, the partition of the Kurils, the seemingly permanent incorporation of the Baltic states, etc.
With regard to the post Soviet space, it should be unsurprising the Russians were the own worst enemies. For the West, I often wonder how and why we didn't do better, because I don't know if we could have, with the benefit of 30 years of hindsight, done worse.
Like geography, demographics, too, are destiny. It appears that the majority of 1st world countries have a below replacement birthrate. Even the Chinese, as prolific breeders as they are, have a crisis in the next couple of decades. The World is a changing, folks.
It’s unutterably saddening to see both Russia and Ukraine bleed. It’s like the First World War writ small with a generation decimated on both sides.
I understand why ukr sees it as a war of national survival. I think I understand why rus started the war in 2014, but I can’t see how the potential gain is worth the loss already suffered nor the future costs of that loss. It doesn’t matter if rus wins everything or loses, the Russian federation is doomed in the longer term.
(1) The claim that 80% of russia's population is ethnically russian is spurious at best. In Siberia, thre is a large proportion of what were once ethnic Ukrainians who were exiled there over the last 200 years. But otherwise, "ethnic russians" do not constitute 80% of the RF population. (2) The map showing that ethnic russians dominate all those regions beyond the Urals is also suspect. For russia to have 80% ethnic russians would mean about 105 million ethnic russians in the RF itself, which is patent nonsense given their significant diaspora outside the country, as this would make them one of the largest European ethnicities in the world... I suspect this data is based on the ethnicity written into individual passports, which has been a hefty fiction since soviet times. It was a handy way of diminishing other ethnicities, first among those Ukrainian, and of ensuring a better career ladder for all. (3) It's OBVIOUS that Putin has been concentrating on the non-Slavic, largely non-Christian, population that lives at great distances from Moscow for recruiting, so that any unrest is not felt or heard where the majority of ethnic russians live....
I suspect the Russians have a similar map of the United Staes showing how white southerners - the traditional source for recruits - are having fewer children which is why the U. S Army can’t meet its goals. They can even point to a senator who wanted to enlist illegal aliens.
My thoughts are that this recruiting strategy keeps the majority Slavic population - Putin's supporters - shielded from the realities of the war. Worse still, because of the sanctions, the insulated, well-to-do urban Russians have just shifted their buying habits from European luxury goods to Chinese. The longer the war persists, the better it is for the PRC's economy. To wit, look at Chinese car sales the past two years.
Interesting data. I do believe that non-Russian troops paid a major part in WW II on the eastern front., replacing the troops killed/captured in the initial Nazi offensives. Also, I wonder how much of the "Shortage" of Russian troops is due to draft evasion, which I gather is endemic these days in Russia.
I've studied their demographics for years professionally. They do have a problem, not unique to them. Putin has made no secret of his ambitions, driven by the inevitable before it becomes manifest. Neither Russia or Ukraine have come close to replacing their pre-1941 populations yet here they are, fighting to the last man, evidently. The Eastern Front redux requires manpower for those outdated tactics. For Russia, this optional loss of manpower is significant. I am among those who believe their offensive capabilities are degraded and do not currently pose much of a threat to Europe. That's not to say someone miscalculates and does something foolish...again.
Very interesting article. My thoughts go to how secure will Ru feel along the perimeter of her borders in the next decade or so as the consequences of their demographics fully unfolds?
"From the start of the Russo-Ukrainian War that started again in 2022...."
The war began in 2014 and never ended. The killing never stopped. Putin simply widened it in 2022.
your first map has fertility, and shows that Euro-Russia has low fertility, but births are fertility x population density.
My point being, the high fertility areas, beyond being the most non Russian are also low density, and the high density Russian areas are uniformly low fertility.
meanwhile, in china…and the U.S…..
Very interesting. Reading the data I felt dirty. My thoughts on war have changed in the past few minutes, and I am unable to vocalize, or even arrange thoughts into something I can wrap my head around. I will have to read this again tomorrow.
Two nations, being bled while by the evil corrupt men in charge. With evil, corrupt men in the West urging the war on, because they benefit from it.
The Wars of the Soviet Succession started in the early 1990s, and the West never really knew what it wanted. As the saying goes, when the West came to a fork in the road, they took it.
Sarotte's hagiography of NATO expansion "Not One Inch" documents the betrayal that the West felt with the violence of the first Russian attack into Chechnya. But Russia couldn't be expected to simply allow the complete breakdown of Russia, the Russian Federation, the historical imperial Russian project or some combination of the above, while they had combat power to stop it.
The borders of the Former Soviet Union were written for Soviet reasons. Often those are lost in the bureaucratic history of the Soviet Union. There isn't even much consensus on the basis of the 1954 Soviet Presidium decision to gift Crimea to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic (along with other additions.) Yet, like the OAU decision to freeze African borders to the tune of the probable loss of millions of lives, we in the West all accepted the post Soviet borders are permanently immutable, even though practically, culturally and politically, there was next to nothing "historical" about them. For the most part, it was was where the NKVD and Red Army ended the war in 1945, be it the end of Bessarabia, the partition of the Kurils, the seemingly permanent incorporation of the Baltic states, etc.
With regard to the post Soviet space, it should be unsurprising the Russians were the own worst enemies. For the West, I often wonder how and why we didn't do better, because I don't know if we could have, with the benefit of 30 years of hindsight, done worse.
Like geography, demographics, too, are destiny. It appears that the majority of 1st world countries have a below replacement birthrate. Even the Chinese, as prolific breeders as they are, have a crisis in the next couple of decades. The World is a changing, folks.
Liked, but not liked.
It’s unutterably saddening to see both Russia and Ukraine bleed. It’s like the First World War writ small with a generation decimated on both sides.
I understand why ukr sees it as a war of national survival. I think I understand why rus started the war in 2014, but I can’t see how the potential gain is worth the loss already suffered nor the future costs of that loss. It doesn’t matter if rus wins everything or loses, the Russian federation is doomed in the longer term.
(1) The claim that 80% of russia's population is ethnically russian is spurious at best. In Siberia, thre is a large proportion of what were once ethnic Ukrainians who were exiled there over the last 200 years. But otherwise, "ethnic russians" do not constitute 80% of the RF population. (2) The map showing that ethnic russians dominate all those regions beyond the Urals is also suspect. For russia to have 80% ethnic russians would mean about 105 million ethnic russians in the RF itself, which is patent nonsense given their significant diaspora outside the country, as this would make them one of the largest European ethnicities in the world... I suspect this data is based on the ethnicity written into individual passports, which has been a hefty fiction since soviet times. It was a handy way of diminishing other ethnicities, first among those Ukrainian, and of ensuring a better career ladder for all. (3) It's OBVIOUS that Putin has been concentrating on the non-Slavic, largely non-Christian, population that lives at great distances from Moscow for recruiting, so that any unrest is not felt or heard where the majority of ethnic russians live....
I suspect the Russians have a similar map of the United Staes showing how white southerners - the traditional source for recruits - are having fewer children which is why the U. S Army can’t meet its goals. They can even point to a senator who wanted to enlist illegal aliens.
Meanwhile the entire British Army could be seated in Wembly Stadium with room for the RN and RAF.
Somehow I don’t think a Ukrainian soldier on the frontline will take much comfort in this analysis
My thoughts are that this recruiting strategy keeps the majority Slavic population - Putin's supporters - shielded from the realities of the war. Worse still, because of the sanctions, the insulated, well-to-do urban Russians have just shifted their buying habits from European luxury goods to Chinese. The longer the war persists, the better it is for the PRC's economy. To wit, look at Chinese car sales the past two years.
Interesting data. I do believe that non-Russian troops paid a major part in WW II on the eastern front., replacing the troops killed/captured in the initial Nazi offensives. Also, I wonder how much of the "Shortage" of Russian troops is due to draft evasion, which I gather is endemic these days in Russia.
I've studied their demographics for years professionally. They do have a problem, not unique to them. Putin has made no secret of his ambitions, driven by the inevitable before it becomes manifest. Neither Russia or Ukraine have come close to replacing their pre-1941 populations yet here they are, fighting to the last man, evidently. The Eastern Front redux requires manpower for those outdated tactics. For Russia, this optional loss of manpower is significant. I am among those who believe their offensive capabilities are degraded and do not currently pose much of a threat to Europe. That's not to say someone miscalculates and does something foolish...again.