The Endgame in Ukraine?

it's complicated

Is there a happy ending in Ukraine, or are there only different variations of bad endings?

It depends on your definition of “good” and “bad.” For a comfortable Westerner, it might be hard to find a “good” ending, but for a Ukrainian, there might be. For a Russian there unquestionably is…but let’s not look at this from a Russian POV, but instead look at it from a Ukrainian point of view.

There are three broad outcomes of this war:

1. Russia Wins: there is a spectrum of results here, but none of them end with Ukraine having territorial or political integrity. Most likely they will lose the eastern quarter of their land and most if not all of their Black Sea Coast. It will be a rump-Ukraine more like Belorussia than a real nation. Moldova and Georgia will have to seek accommodation with Russia.

2. Frozen War: if you like the tinder box international welfare state that is Bosnia & Kosovo, then you’ll love what Ukraine would be like if The Smartest People in the Room™ manage to find a “negotiated settlement.” All that will result is both sides waiting for the moment to be “ripe” to restart the war in a year, a decade, a half-century … whatever it takes. Meanwhile, generations of “peace keepers” will absorb oxygen to enforce an artificial border for an artificial peace hoping the music doesn’t stop during their tour … as one day the music will stop. Russia will always be Russia.

3. Ukraine Wins: there is a fuzzy border from “Frozen War” to “Ukraine Wins.” In that fuzzy edge there might be some changes in borders not necessarily but perhaps via referendum like was seen in Upper Silesia after WWI - but we know how that worked out in the end. At the other end - and to get here would probably require a collapse of Putin’s government and resulting internal power struggle - is Ukraine regaining all the territory lost since 2014. Then what?

That is when the hard work follows.

Before February 2021, or even the real kick off of the war in 2014, there was and is one underlying anchor around the neck of the Ukrainian people, their economy, and their civil society - corruption. I mentioned it before the war kicked off, and it remains the primary thing that will keep a Ukraine at peace from improving the economic standing of its people … but there are other equally demanding challenges they will have to face. Corruption is simply the first amongst equals.

Ripping corruption out of a society once it becomes embedded is a generations long effort and it never really starts. We still have plenty of corruption in the USA that as a society we struggle to keep to a manageable level. Most Americans have no idea how corrupt most of the world - and Ukraine - actually is.

On Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index, the U.S. is ranked 24th out of 180 nations. Ukraine is 116/180. Russia is 137/180. More Americans are familiar with Mexico (126/180) and Canada (14/180) - so there are some benchmarks.

So, anti-corruption must be done in parallel, not serial, with other requirements. There are four things Ukraine must already be thinking about if they are to succeed post-war;

• Anti-corruption

• Security

• Economics

• Demographics

They will never have the economy they should without decreasing corruption. Without an improved standard of living, their best and brightest young will emigrate, and those who remain will not have many children. Ukrainian demographics are already a horror show that will take a century to recover, if ever…but first things first.

Nothing is possible without security. From a defense perspective, Ukraine has horrible geography and problematic neighbors to her east … and historically almost as problematic neighbors to her west.

Where do Ukrainians go? Well, they are already looking at a path. Lara Seligman & Paul McLeary over at Politico have an interesting article up. In part;

Ukraine has long been an industrial giant, producing heavy machinery and engines for Russian navy ships and military helicopters, along with armored vehicles, aircraft, and small arms. Many of those production facilities have been damaged in the war. Still, Ukrainian officials are looking to Western defense firms for commitments that they’re willing to invest and build in Ukraine even before the fighting stops.

Two European defense contractors have already said they’re in. Rheinmetall, a German arms giant, has said it would work with Ukraine’s state arms company, Ukroboronprom, to build tanks and armored vehicles. British-based BAE has also announced it is opening an office in Kyiv and is looking into making 105mm guns in Ukraine.

…

It’s all part of a larger and growing refrain among Ukrainian officials, which is “we will have to become an Israel in Europe — self-sufficient but with help from other countries,” said Daniel Vajdich, president of Yorktown Solutions, which advocates on behalf of Ukraine in Washington. That effort will rely on co-production deals “that will develop capabilities in the region initially and then in-country when possible.”

…

“Priority number one is that Ukraine will be self-reliant because even if the war finishes today, Ukraine will be a shield for Europe against future attempts by Russia,” to grab territory or destabilize Europe, said Verkhniatskyi from COSA Intelligence Solutions. “It’s just going to happen. The Russians are just simply going to be Russians forever.”

Emphasis added on my part because … no kidding.

The “being Israel” part is a good benchmark. Israel spends ~4.5% of her GDP on defense. I would say a Swiss mentality about a citizen army is good too, but the Swiss, hidden in their mountains surrounded by people who have no interest or ability to attack them, only spends 0.76% of GDP on defense…but this much is clear: if Ukraine can come out of this with her independence intact, she needs to spend like Israel, think like Switzerland … and make sure they have something even more robust than the America’s 2nd Amendment.

Remember the first few months of the war? I do. Every able bodied Ukrainian should be armed so that no Russian can expect to wander in to a suburb and line people up to be shot without resistance. Keep that at the top of your list … it will also help the Ukrainian people keep their government in check should it fall prey to Russian efforts.

A final note on international dangers to Ukraine … not everyone in the West are your friends. We have rent seekers, grifters, con artists, and internationalists that will try to make money and build their own power base off Ukraine.

The Ukrainian government must avoid these people with their money, status, and fun conferences. They need to appreciate that corruption from without is as corrosive as within - and it can from from friends and enemies.

The famously … well … you know …., ahem, Clinton Global Initiative has reanimated itself and is already positioning itself to profit off post-war Ukraine. The Bond Villainesque World Economic Forum is also setting itself up. If the Ukrainian people are smart, they will be polite, but will keep those organizations west of the Vistula.

This will not be pretty. It will not be easy … heck … it might even fail - but for the U.S. and the West, what is the outcome that would have the best long term result for our interests? A Russian victory? Another frozen conflict waiting to thaw? No.

A Ukrainian victory that puts Russia back a decade or so. Oh, she’ll be back, maybe not given her demographics … but never discount the Russian ability to bounce back.