Russia only ever wanted peace. US/NATO forced this war upon them first via a coup, then by using Minsk Agreements as a means to buy time and then launch a conflict to draw Russia in. This will ONLY settle on Russian terms. Any other such ideas are fantasy or the path to WWIII.
I say it depends on how long the war lasts. But Frozen War is most likely outcome. One could even make a case it's the best outcome for the US. Give the Ukrainians gear as we wear it out so we don't need to dispose of it. Keep Russians obsessed over reclaiming Ukraine, so they don't bother the Eastern Flank of NATO. Keep the Europeans thinking about defending themselves, and we pour money into thinks to keep the Pacific region free.
The Norns of history never sleep. This year marks the 250th anniversary of the Polish Diet agreeing to partitioning by the great powers. They would cede lands to Russia in the east that are today within Belarus. While they surely did not know it at the time, in a mere 20 years they would be ceding an even larger portion to Russia in the east and Prussia in the west. This greater bite would lead to the uprising by Major General Tadeusz KoĊciuszko, who would ultimately lose at the Battle of Maciejowice and Poland would cease to exist.
Americans focus on what victory looks like. It would be prudent - prior to entering or supporting a conflict - to identify what defeat looks like too. What ranges of defeat are acceptable in the Ukraine fracas not only to Ukraine but to the UK - to Canada - to the US - to Israel - to all the co-belligerents? The Ukraine is not the only country that will be impacted by the scope of their defeat. On a simplistic note, what chance is there of the funds expended by the West to be repaid? How will the marketing of Western arms need to change based on their performance in the conflict? Russia has continued to sell diesel fuel, uranium for reactors and natural gas to the EU throughout the conflict, despite sanctions. How would this and other trade be impacted by different takes on a Ukrainian defeat.
The invasion of Ukraine slows down, the weather mandates a "frozen" situation, embers banked. Meanwhile, WAR (a spirit all its own) moves on to warmer climes; as the extremely, extremely, EXTREMELY more impactful, awful, volatile; and inevitable conflagration sparked by Iran vs Israel heats up, and draws in, in order......Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Turkey,.....and yep, Russia/China, et. al.
Not complicated at all from my perspective. Pull the plug on Zelensky and his fellow grifters. What happens in or to Ukraine is none of our concern no more than our own Civil War was the concern of England and France who had the good sense not to get involved. The money we sent to Ukraine would have been better spent in East Palestine and Maui.
Which Ukraine are we talking about? The one that elected Yanukovych? The one that elected that guy who played the piano with his John Hancock on a soft line approach, dare I say a peace platform with Russia? The one that shelled their "supposedly" own citizens in the Donbas for 8 years? Or maybe the run by Vicky?
This is pretty simple "real politics" at this point. If I was Putin, I wouldn't trust NATO. I would grab Odesssa, Kharkhov and a bunch of other oblasts all the way up to Kiev. I'd make sure whatever NATO wants to admit is a rump disaster. The Poles will be thrilled with the grain trade from whatever is left. I'd then sit back and laugh as I slowly built alternatives to the GX trade blocks. Someday I'd dethrone the dollar with my BRICS friends and the southern hemisphere that look North and see a drunken sailor with 60 trillion in inflated away Tbills on the balance sheet.
The neocons (I shudder at using the word, but I have to admit at this point it's true and I would have been described as one myself back in 2003) have played the worst game of poker possible leading up to this. Putin is not the Fuhrer. Russia did not have to be turned into this farcical big bad wolf. Poland and the Fulda Gap are not next on the Kremlin band's world tour. Our nat sec elite did this to us and we are going to be scratching our heads wondering how this all went to shit. Horrendous casualties, a hundred or two hundred billion burned, Russia and China stronger, US weaker. But we had to protect Democracy. FFS. Just the newspeak they throw around should give you a clue.
CDR, seems like you are going bi-polar on us. Yesterday, you were berating the DOD and political leaders for the misjudgment that we were a "continental land power" and ignoring our Mahanist roots. As one of those guys who drew my Sabre and was a steely-eyed tanky guy staring down the Russian hordes and my doom, I've got more land power creds than sea power, though I sit 100 feet from the mighty Pacific right now. Let me postulate a few things that we should and should not try:
1. nation building, aka playing Elliott Ness trying to clean up Chi-town. Let the EU take the lead on most of this. They've got skin in the game, are more experienced in the region, and it keeps their interest up in NATO.
2. Don't do what Biden and the idiots he has at State and Defense, talk stupid $hit about regime change, war criminals, and total victory. Don't we have enough lessons from history about how that hardens enemy hearts and convinces them to fight on. Thinking the Nazis, Japanese, Norks, and a dozen others here. Less Cato ("Carthago delenda est") and more Scipio after Zama is needed. Don't talk of war criminals until you stand on the rubble of the enemy's Capital staring at the big pile of their swords.
3. Whatever we decide, avoid burning huge piles of dollas we don't have in the near term. The Taiwan thing is going to resolve itself in under 5 years. China is imploding demographically and economically in under 10. Even buying ships is a gamble on our part unless we have extra Burke capacity. Spend our Biden bucks on smart munitions, missiles and mines
The "end game" for the present conflict will only be the starting point for the next conflict over Ukraine. We foolishly tend to think that lines drawn on a map yesterday, today or tomorrow will be there forever. In reality, national borders tend to ebb and flow, especially on the continent of Europe.
Strong men (or occasional women) will rise to power, and by leadership or brutal repression they will extend their domination over neighbors. Religious, ethnic or cultural affinities will unite to divide regions into new alignments for or against other regions.
Covetous neighbors seek geographic advantages of ports or rivers; natural defensive borders; agrarian lands to feed their masses or export for profit; industrial infrastructure; populations to enslave; or treasure to plunder.
None of this started two years ago with Putin's "Special Military Operation", or the seizure of Crimea in 2014, or with Ukraine's independence in 1991, or with Russian domination after WW2, or German occupation during that war. Remember that British and French armies and treasure were wasted in Crimea in the 1850s, trying to stop Russian domination of the region. "Onward, into the valley of death" was a futile tactic then, and is still such.
Domination of Ukraine has constantly shifted for nearly a millennia (or several hundred WW2s, if you like that unit of time.) Past masters have included variously Greeks, Romans, Byzantines, Mongols, Slavs, Poland, Lithuania, Cossacks, Russia and Germany. Intermittent periods of local Ukranian control also occurred, until they were crushed.
It is a very bloody region, with Russian-like levels of death- about 6 million Ukraines died in WW2, including the murder of 1.5 million Jews. Life is cheap in that neighborhood.
There will be no "end game in Ukraine" only a temporary period of low level hostility until one group or another rises up again. And, again.
This is a matter of vital national interest to Ukrainians, Russians, Poles, Romanians and some others in the region. It is NOT A VITAL U.S. NATIONAL INTEREST if corrupt and brutal thugs looting the Ukraine speak Russian or some other language.
Yes, Russia will still lust after warm water ports, breadbaskets, and energy sources beyond their present borders or spheres of influence.
Until we secure our own borders against millions of invaders illegally entering our bankrupt country we cannot be distracted by wavering lines on maps of Ukraine.
Provide aid in the form of hardware or ammo, if we like, accepting that much of it will be stolen or wasted, but do not send "advisors" or "accountants" or "peace keepers" there.
Thinking we can prevent changes in European borders, especially in Ukraine, is as arrogant and ignorant as King Canute thinking his royal decree would prevent the rising of the tide.
"Frozen war" appears to be the Biden Administration objective, giving Ukraine just enough to hold the Russians off but not enough to push the Russians out.
Of the three possibilities, Russia wins, Frozen war, Ukraine wins, "Frozen war" appears to me to be the ultimate amoral ending, but that describes Biden's party to a "T", doesn't it?
This war will end on Russian terms. Ukraine has already lost. The numbers of Ukrainian causalities, that even our conservative best estimates place at over 450,000 - 500,000 including up to 80,000 KIA, is reminiscent of the manpower gaps from the Napoleonic wars. Ukraine women and orphans wonât be able to rebuild their nation. Western European countries are bankrupt and dealing with de-industrialization, massive immigration invasions and recessions building on suicidal economic and climate policies. To think of a Ukrainian victory is disingenuous when faced with actual math. Russia is thriving and wishcasting for Putin to be overthrown and that somehow that will change the game is akin to placing all the chips left on the table to a couple of dozen F16âs donated by Dutch and Danish with the explicit expectation that they will receive the F35 in lieu ofâĤ.
Seems like everyone is eating from the Ukrainian trough.
Russia will be Russia. And itâs inhumane for the United States to continue to insist on Ukraine success on the battlefield when they are demonstrating they are incapable of victory. You simply cannot win a war without industrial capacity and manpower.
I was wrong in my estimation that Russia would take Kharkov by May. The reasons this hasnât occurred is Russia adjusted to the reality on the ground and is winning the attrition. Russia has a massive opportunity for an offensive. It is coming. Only the Russians know when.
As for negotiation and peaceâĤ the United States and the west are polarized against Russia and China. There remains no credible nation, bloc or power to negotiate a peace. So that means there will be war until Russia achieves it stated objectives. I have said before what the off ramp will look like. Ukraine will be lucky to escape partition and annexation by Poland and Russia.
Thought provoking post. A couple thoughts occur. With the political setup in Russia, it is doubtful they will relent and go home as long as Putin or one of his senior staff (are there any left at this point?) are in charge, so the decision to stop rests with Ukraine. With the long history of strife between them, thatâs doubtful. Thatâs the other thing to keep in mind - we have trouble understanding conflicts that go on for decades, even with our Cold War experience, but for much of the world, this sort of thing stretching on for a generation or two is ops normal. So itâs not really frozen - just moving at a very slow pace. I agree wholeheartedly that Ukraine needs to reform and that reforms should be going on now where they can - and the same goes for Russia. But seriously, with the level of disruption and disorder, how can there not be corruption as people are merely trying to survive?
Russia only ever wanted peace. US/NATO forced this war upon them first via a coup, then by using Minsk Agreements as a means to buy time and then launch a conflict to draw Russia in. This will ONLY settle on Russian terms. Any other such ideas are fantasy or the path to WWIII.
I say it depends on how long the war lasts. But Frozen War is most likely outcome. One could even make a case it's the best outcome for the US. Give the Ukrainians gear as we wear it out so we don't need to dispose of it. Keep Russians obsessed over reclaiming Ukraine, so they don't bother the Eastern Flank of NATO. Keep the Europeans thinking about defending themselves, and we pour money into thinks to keep the Pacific region free.
Old truths are often eternal truths: Russia is never as weak or as strong as she appears. We forget these things at our peril.
"..but never discount the Russian ability to bounce back.."
Repeating m'self again, ...truer words have ne'er been spoken!
The Norns of history never sleep. This year marks the 250th anniversary of the Polish Diet agreeing to partitioning by the great powers. They would cede lands to Russia in the east that are today within Belarus. While they surely did not know it at the time, in a mere 20 years they would be ceding an even larger portion to Russia in the east and Prussia in the west. This greater bite would lead to the uprising by Major General Tadeusz KoĊciuszko, who would ultimately lose at the Battle of Maciejowice and Poland would cease to exist.
Americans focus on what victory looks like. It would be prudent - prior to entering or supporting a conflict - to identify what defeat looks like too. What ranges of defeat are acceptable in the Ukraine fracas not only to Ukraine but to the UK - to Canada - to the US - to Israel - to all the co-belligerents? The Ukraine is not the only country that will be impacted by the scope of their defeat. On a simplistic note, what chance is there of the funds expended by the West to be repaid? How will the marketing of Western arms need to change based on their performance in the conflict? Russia has continued to sell diesel fuel, uranium for reactors and natural gas to the EU throughout the conflict, despite sanctions. How would this and other trade be impacted by different takes on a Ukrainian defeat.
Winter is coming.
The invasion of Ukraine slows down, the weather mandates a "frozen" situation, embers banked. Meanwhile, WAR (a spirit all its own) moves on to warmer climes; as the extremely, extremely, EXTREMELY more impactful, awful, volatile; and inevitable conflagration sparked by Iran vs Israel heats up, and draws in, in order......Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Turkey,.....and yep, Russia/China, et. al.
Not complicated at all from my perspective. Pull the plug on Zelensky and his fellow grifters. What happens in or to Ukraine is none of our concern no more than our own Civil War was the concern of England and France who had the good sense not to get involved. The money we sent to Ukraine would have been better spent in East Palestine and Maui.
Which Ukraine are we talking about? The one that elected Yanukovych? The one that elected that guy who played the piano with his John Hancock on a soft line approach, dare I say a peace platform with Russia? The one that shelled their "supposedly" own citizens in the Donbas for 8 years? Or maybe the run by Vicky?
This is pretty simple "real politics" at this point. If I was Putin, I wouldn't trust NATO. I would grab Odesssa, Kharkhov and a bunch of other oblasts all the way up to Kiev. I'd make sure whatever NATO wants to admit is a rump disaster. The Poles will be thrilled with the grain trade from whatever is left. I'd then sit back and laugh as I slowly built alternatives to the GX trade blocks. Someday I'd dethrone the dollar with my BRICS friends and the southern hemisphere that look North and see a drunken sailor with 60 trillion in inflated away Tbills on the balance sheet.
The neocons (I shudder at using the word, but I have to admit at this point it's true and I would have been described as one myself back in 2003) have played the worst game of poker possible leading up to this. Putin is not the Fuhrer. Russia did not have to be turned into this farcical big bad wolf. Poland and the Fulda Gap are not next on the Kremlin band's world tour. Our nat sec elite did this to us and we are going to be scratching our heads wondering how this all went to shit. Horrendous casualties, a hundred or two hundred billion burned, Russia and China stronger, US weaker. But we had to protect Democracy. FFS. Just the newspeak they throw around should give you a clue.
CDR, seems like you are going bi-polar on us. Yesterday, you were berating the DOD and political leaders for the misjudgment that we were a "continental land power" and ignoring our Mahanist roots. As one of those guys who drew my Sabre and was a steely-eyed tanky guy staring down the Russian hordes and my doom, I've got more land power creds than sea power, though I sit 100 feet from the mighty Pacific right now. Let me postulate a few things that we should and should not try:
1. nation building, aka playing Elliott Ness trying to clean up Chi-town. Let the EU take the lead on most of this. They've got skin in the game, are more experienced in the region, and it keeps their interest up in NATO.
2. Don't do what Biden and the idiots he has at State and Defense, talk stupid $hit about regime change, war criminals, and total victory. Don't we have enough lessons from history about how that hardens enemy hearts and convinces them to fight on. Thinking the Nazis, Japanese, Norks, and a dozen others here. Less Cato ("Carthago delenda est") and more Scipio after Zama is needed. Don't talk of war criminals until you stand on the rubble of the enemy's Capital staring at the big pile of their swords.
3. Whatever we decide, avoid burning huge piles of dollas we don't have in the near term. The Taiwan thing is going to resolve itself in under 5 years. China is imploding demographically and economically in under 10. Even buying ships is a gamble on our part unless we have extra Burke capacity. Spend our Biden bucks on smart munitions, missiles and mines
The "end game" for the present conflict will only be the starting point for the next conflict over Ukraine. We foolishly tend to think that lines drawn on a map yesterday, today or tomorrow will be there forever. In reality, national borders tend to ebb and flow, especially on the continent of Europe.
Strong men (or occasional women) will rise to power, and by leadership or brutal repression they will extend their domination over neighbors. Religious, ethnic or cultural affinities will unite to divide regions into new alignments for or against other regions.
Covetous neighbors seek geographic advantages of ports or rivers; natural defensive borders; agrarian lands to feed their masses or export for profit; industrial infrastructure; populations to enslave; or treasure to plunder.
None of this started two years ago with Putin's "Special Military Operation", or the seizure of Crimea in 2014, or with Ukraine's independence in 1991, or with Russian domination after WW2, or German occupation during that war. Remember that British and French armies and treasure were wasted in Crimea in the 1850s, trying to stop Russian domination of the region. "Onward, into the valley of death" was a futile tactic then, and is still such.
Domination of Ukraine has constantly shifted for nearly a millennia (or several hundred WW2s, if you like that unit of time.) Past masters have included variously Greeks, Romans, Byzantines, Mongols, Slavs, Poland, Lithuania, Cossacks, Russia and Germany. Intermittent periods of local Ukranian control also occurred, until they were crushed.
It is a very bloody region, with Russian-like levels of death- about 6 million Ukraines died in WW2, including the murder of 1.5 million Jews. Life is cheap in that neighborhood.
There will be no "end game in Ukraine" only a temporary period of low level hostility until one group or another rises up again. And, again.
This is a matter of vital national interest to Ukrainians, Russians, Poles, Romanians and some others in the region. It is NOT A VITAL U.S. NATIONAL INTEREST if corrupt and brutal thugs looting the Ukraine speak Russian or some other language.
Yes, Russia will still lust after warm water ports, breadbaskets, and energy sources beyond their present borders or spheres of influence.
Until we secure our own borders against millions of invaders illegally entering our bankrupt country we cannot be distracted by wavering lines on maps of Ukraine.
Provide aid in the form of hardware or ammo, if we like, accepting that much of it will be stolen or wasted, but do not send "advisors" or "accountants" or "peace keepers" there.
Thinking we can prevent changes in European borders, especially in Ukraine, is as arrogant and ignorant as King Canute thinking his royal decree would prevent the rising of the tide.
"Frozen war" appears to be the Biden Administration objective, giving Ukraine just enough to hold the Russians off but not enough to push the Russians out.
Of the three possibilities, Russia wins, Frozen war, Ukraine wins, "Frozen war" appears to me to be the ultimate amoral ending, but that describes Biden's party to a "T", doesn't it?
Time to rebump this must read...
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B06XC9WFZD/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1
Bloodlands: Europe Between Hitler and Stalin
The fires now are reflash of this conflagration...
This war will end on Russian terms. Ukraine has already lost. The numbers of Ukrainian causalities, that even our conservative best estimates place at over 450,000 - 500,000 including up to 80,000 KIA, is reminiscent of the manpower gaps from the Napoleonic wars. Ukraine women and orphans wonât be able to rebuild their nation. Western European countries are bankrupt and dealing with de-industrialization, massive immigration invasions and recessions building on suicidal economic and climate policies. To think of a Ukrainian victory is disingenuous when faced with actual math. Russia is thriving and wishcasting for Putin to be overthrown and that somehow that will change the game is akin to placing all the chips left on the table to a couple of dozen F16âs donated by Dutch and Danish with the explicit expectation that they will receive the F35 in lieu ofâĤ.
Seems like everyone is eating from the Ukrainian trough.
Russia will be Russia. And itâs inhumane for the United States to continue to insist on Ukraine success on the battlefield when they are demonstrating they are incapable of victory. You simply cannot win a war without industrial capacity and manpower.
I was wrong in my estimation that Russia would take Kharkov by May. The reasons this hasnât occurred is Russia adjusted to the reality on the ground and is winning the attrition. Russia has a massive opportunity for an offensive. It is coming. Only the Russians know when.
As for negotiation and peaceâĤ the United States and the west are polarized against Russia and China. There remains no credible nation, bloc or power to negotiate a peace. So that means there will be war until Russia achieves it stated objectives. I have said before what the off ramp will look like. Ukraine will be lucky to escape partition and annexation by Poland and Russia.
Dear CDR Salamander, have you ever been in Eastern Europe?
Thought provoking post. A couple thoughts occur. With the political setup in Russia, it is doubtful they will relent and go home as long as Putin or one of his senior staff (are there any left at this point?) are in charge, so the decision to stop rests with Ukraine. With the long history of strife between them, thatâs doubtful. Thatâs the other thing to keep in mind - we have trouble understanding conflicts that go on for decades, even with our Cold War experience, but for much of the world, this sort of thing stretching on for a generation or two is ops normal. So itâs not really frozen - just moving at a very slow pace. I agree wholeheartedly that Ukraine needs to reform and that reforms should be going on now where they can - and the same goes for Russia. But seriously, with the level of disruption and disorder, how can there not be corruption as people are merely trying to survive?