We had a German tailor in northern Virginia who swore Merkel was a communist plant…he has gone on to his reward, but I believe he was on the right track.
Nah. The best and easiest way to be sure that Putin is not a communist is that, if he were, our own Democratic Party would have been cheering him on ever since he took power.
Putin is not a commie. He's a Russian Imperialist. By actions, he's not much for political theory and navel gazing as required by Marxist-Leninist, he's interested in straight up power.
Just like Catherine the Great, the first Emperor/Empress to recognize the independence of the United States. While organizing a continental blockade of British trade.
Having been born there, and lived there als ein kinder und soldat, with the passing of the WWII/early Cold War generation that was mugged by reality, german "elites" slipped back into Bismarckian hubris and social control, reinforced by Merkel's might-as-well-be-Stasi Ostie outlook, with a bizarre embrace of national socialist Greenery. They may all speak German, but Prussia still rules the east with an eastern-looking protestant agrarian authoritarianism, and the west, along the Rhine, Main, Mosel, Danube basins, the splintered, west-looking, catholic burgher-bros mercantilists argue about everything while the more disciplined Ost-Deutsch drive the train.
Sure, take the win in Germany. Crawl, walk, run, and all that.
But while I want a stronger geographic Europe to strengthen European NATO capabilities, you can never convince me that a stronger proto-imperial and intrinsically anti-American European Union is in American interests. We cannot lead that from behind.
This is the best post I've read on the German elections. History is, indeed, very sticky. I was very struck by the East vs. West split in the vote. I'd love to understand more about the heavy support for the AfD in old East Germany.
I suspect the East Germans are less delusional about things like unchecked immigration and the war in Ukraine, as well as being intimately aware of what it is like to live in poverty without abundant energy sources.
East Germany had plenty of lignite, brown coal. It was filthy stuff that made the whole place stink, but a shortage of energy was not one of their problems.
The Osties feel exactly like our working class about the immigrants from the Global South. Both see their Elites encouraging an open immigration that provides more support to some newcomer than to the poor locals. No rich German has to ride the U-bahn with or live next to our new "Citizens".
This may be the last chance that the German public will give to the Union-SPD coalition to do what they want: restrict migration, lower energy bills, etc. If the parties can't do that, AfD may win the next election. The Democratic Party in the US had a similar opportunity (with somewhat different issues) but flubbed it.
Your last paragraph was important and accurate. constitutional republics are inherently more stable than democratic parliaments where the foundations are much weaker.
If Russia refuses to be reasonable at the table, then fully back the Ukrainian fight?
The Russians are at the helm of any negotiations as well as the war. Ukraine has lost. It is far more likely that the Europeans will refuse to be reasonable at the table, because Russia has fought for and earned the right to get most of what they want.
Their sacrifice was not, however, in vain. The entire exercise was necessary to bring a bright shining light to the American political class, starkly illuminating for all the world to see the USA's national interests with respect to Russia, Ukraine, and Europe more generally. Whether our leaders choose to understand and act on what is now so clear to everyone is another matter entirely.
Very good column, thank you. (I have spent years in Germany and have dear friends there, all thanks to my extended US Army tours). I, too, am sorry to see the FDP's fall from grace, but hope AfD can keep the future government honest (e.g., on immigration policy). Your emphasis on election integrity and "first world" vote counting and how it applies to many deficient states and cities here in the US is spot on. As for where Germany (and Europe overall) goes from here, so much will depend on what the thoroughly undemocratic and unaccountable EU does going forward. There is only so much a country like Germany (no matter what the voters have endorsed) can do absent supportive/conciliatory policies and actions of the EU.
Obviously, with Germany you're looking at two separate countries.
Once NATO loses the USA (at least its financial support and defense shield) and becomes, in effect, the ETO, and Europe and Russia are brought face-to-face to deal with each other, I expect Russia will easily peel off its former Eastern European SSRs and Warsaw Pact countries into its sphere of influence.
Eastern Europe has seen the EU from the inside and cannot abide their countries going down the same slide into demographic, political, and economic oblivion as their Western "partners." Trump is making all the right moves getting the hell out of dodge before the real shit hits the fan (Far East AND Western Europe).
Fractious and contentious will probably be the new by-words. And while hopefully wrong, don't be surprised if the German government becomes as stable as the Italian governments of the '70's.
Thank you. Informative.
I am particularly struck by the old West Germany/East Germany divide. Thank you for illustrating that.
And for your cogent observation at the end, about vote counting!
That’s always been a problem even under the Kaiser. Industrial west and rural east. Protestant north and Catholic south.
Completely concur with the final note!
We had a German tailor in northern Virginia who swore Merkel was a communist plant…he has gone on to his reward, but I believe he was on the right track.
Yep. Putin is a closeted communist. His actions were predicted over 30 years ago by a defector in "New Lies For Old." You can get a free pdf at
https://archive.org/details/NewLiesForOld/
I don’t think Putin is in the closet at all. He’s full on commie
Nah. The best and easiest way to be sure that Putin is not a communist is that, if he were, our own Democratic Party would have been cheering him on ever since he took power.
Putin is not a commie. He's a Russian Imperialist. By actions, he's not much for political theory and navel gazing as required by Marxist-Leninist, he's interested in straight up power.
Just like Catherine the Great, the first Emperor/Empress to recognize the independence of the United States. While organizing a continental blockade of British trade.
The closet communist gave all the money and property seized from the CPSU to the Church? That's an awfully odd way to bring back communism to Russia.
Having been born there, and lived there als ein kinder und soldat, with the passing of the WWII/early Cold War generation that was mugged by reality, german "elites" slipped back into Bismarckian hubris and social control, reinforced by Merkel's might-as-well-be-Stasi Ostie outlook, with a bizarre embrace of national socialist Greenery. They may all speak German, but Prussia still rules the east with an eastern-looking protestant agrarian authoritarianism, and the west, along the Rhine, Main, Mosel, Danube basins, the splintered, west-looking, catholic burgher-bros mercantilists argue about everything while the more disciplined Ost-Deutsch drive the train.
Sound familiar?
John of Argghhh!: Very insightful comment. History and cultural matter.
But what's left of the geographical area of the old Prussian state all went AfD.
Sure, take the win in Germany. Crawl, walk, run, and all that.
But while I want a stronger geographic Europe to strengthen European NATO capabilities, you can never convince me that a stronger proto-imperial and intrinsically anti-American European Union is in American interests. We cannot lead that from behind.
This is the best post I've read on the German elections. History is, indeed, very sticky. I was very struck by the East vs. West split in the vote. I'd love to understand more about the heavy support for the AfD in old East Germany.
I suspect the East Germans are less delusional about things like unchecked immigration and the war in Ukraine, as well as being intimately aware of what it is like to live in poverty without abundant energy sources.
East Germany had plenty of lignite, brown coal. It was filthy stuff that made the whole place stink, but a shortage of energy was not one of their problems.
The Osties feel exactly like our working class about the immigrants from the Global South. Both see their Elites encouraging an open immigration that provides more support to some newcomer than to the poor locals. No rich German has to ride the U-bahn with or live next to our new "Citizens".
There is no true conservative party in Germany. Remember it was Mutti Merkel's party that brought in all the Muslim crazies.
This may be the last chance that the German public will give to the Union-SPD coalition to do what they want: restrict migration, lower energy bills, etc. If the parties can't do that, AfD may win the next election. The Democratic Party in the US had a similar opportunity (with somewhat different issues) but flubbed it.
You wrote:
“If Russia refuses to be reasonable at the table, fully back the Ukrainian fight.”
What is “reasonable “? Refusing to accept Ukraine joining NATO? Insisting that Dohansk and Luhansk are part of Russia? Not coming to the table at all?
Agreed. And if Russia is not reasonable then what. Forever war until Russia takes it all!
Your last paragraph was important and accurate. constitutional republics are inherently more stable than democratic parliaments where the foundations are much weaker.
The question is: what price stability?
If Russia refuses to be reasonable at the table, then fully back the Ukrainian fight?
The Russians are at the helm of any negotiations as well as the war. Ukraine has lost. It is far more likely that the Europeans will refuse to be reasonable at the table, because Russia has fought for and earned the right to get most of what they want.
Both have lost.
Their sacrifice was not, however, in vain. The entire exercise was necessary to bring a bright shining light to the American political class, starkly illuminating for all the world to see the USA's national interests with respect to Russia, Ukraine, and Europe more generally. Whether our leaders choose to understand and act on what is now so clear to everyone is another matter entirely.
Very good column, thank you. (I have spent years in Germany and have dear friends there, all thanks to my extended US Army tours). I, too, am sorry to see the FDP's fall from grace, but hope AfD can keep the future government honest (e.g., on immigration policy). Your emphasis on election integrity and "first world" vote counting and how it applies to many deficient states and cities here in the US is spot on. As for where Germany (and Europe overall) goes from here, so much will depend on what the thoroughly undemocratic and unaccountable EU does going forward. There is only so much a country like Germany (no matter what the voters have endorsed) can do absent supportive/conciliatory policies and actions of the EU.
Obviously, with Germany you're looking at two separate countries.
Once NATO loses the USA (at least its financial support and defense shield) and becomes, in effect, the ETO, and Europe and Russia are brought face-to-face to deal with each other, I expect Russia will easily peel off its former Eastern European SSRs and Warsaw Pact countries into its sphere of influence.
Eastern Europe has seen the EU from the inside and cannot abide their countries going down the same slide into demographic, political, and economic oblivion as their Western "partners." Trump is making all the right moves getting the hell out of dodge before the real shit hits the fan (Far East AND Western Europe).
We should never have expanded NATO after 1991. Todays problems are the results of yesterday’s stupidity
Correct, and they always have been, are today, and will be tomorrow.
Disagree. We should have expanded NATO even further and included Russia. Can't be threatened by an alliance that you're part of.
Yeah...no. Eastern Europe doesn't want to follow Western Europe, but it really doesn't want to be dominated by Russia.
Better to deal with hectoring from Brussels than defenestration from Moscow.
Fractious and contentious will probably be the new by-words. And while hopefully wrong, don't be surprised if the German government becomes as stable as the Italian governments of the '70's.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Years_of_Lead_(Italy)
Thank you for the summary primer on the German elections. Great detail, easy to follow, even for the Deutsch-n00bs like me!