Pouring oil onto the troubled waters of the Gulf, Red Sea, Malacca Straits, and South China Sea is not going to bring us any smoother sailing. We are in for rough seas. Every time someone opines that we intervened in the mid-east strictly for our own (oil) good, they are shortsighted. We did so to keep the world moving. All of it.
That is in gravest peril now. Once, our Navy kept things fairly even keeled. That is well nigh "over and done"
what to do? what to do? what to do?
The Front Porch here knows; we need to spread the word.
We really have no choice but to keep the world moving forward. Our $200B+ annual ag exports rely on $10B annual fertilizer imports. The top 5 suppliers of fertilizer - Canada, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, & Qatar. Then there are chips, heavy industrial equipment, shoes and clothing, and a myriad of other industries where the US is reliant of foreign imports. We no longer extract the necessary resources (exception oil & gas) nor have a population trained to have a robust and resilient domestic industrial base.
The only thing that (usually, not always) makes me feel better about your last sentence is that the rest of the world is in no better shape, and many of our potential adversaries are in significantly worse positions.
In 2023, MAD has come to mean "Mutually Assured Dependence".
The free trader in me wants to point out that this is one of the advantages of trade; it leads to peace. Economic prosperity leads to a web of entanglement, entanglement which stops folks from killing each other. Iran knows this because the prospect of better economic relations between Israel and the House of Saud is what kicked this nonsense off.
The problem with free trade is that for it to work everybody involved has to engage in free trade. If not the country engaging in free trade gets screwed by those that do not. Prime example is China. China is very protectionist when it comes to allowing companies to do business there. A company may get access to some cheap/forced labor for products to export our of China but if you want to sell products in China you mostly have to make them in China and be prepared to give up proprietary information in the process. The EU is another example. While technically a free trade zone most countries have carve outs to protect special interests/products/industrial bases to included EU subsidies/credits.
The Best example of a working free trade zone it the United States.. Among the the things the US Constitution did was establish , in effect, a free trade zone among the all the states.
No doubt, we can likely all sleep better if none of the major players are acting from positions of desperation. That's one of the reasons why I'm such a pessimist re: Taiwan...Xi is smart enough to read a demographics chart.
The current administration has made massive mistakes in energy policy from day one. They have dithered and played divest-to-reinvest games with the Navy since day one. Why would we expect them to take prompt, decisive action to fix either of those???
I'm skeptical that THEY viewed those decisions as mistakes. Destructionists gotta destruct, and ensuring that there are options to disrupt the flow of oil (as noted by our host, a Very Bad Thing for a lot of people) can make that easier.
I hear this from time to time. I'm genuinely curious as to the "why". Assuming you believe that "they made decisions intended to drag American down to ruin", what's your theory on why that would be POTUS et al's motivation?
I'm the furthest thing from a supporter of the current Admin, but incompetence mixed with greed & ego seems like a much more likely culprit than outright sabotage to me.
I think incompetence and greed explain the behavior of the figureheads, but there is a core of less visible, in some cases younger, "idealistic" people that believe a one world government, governing maybe 10% of the current population, is the only way the earth and a few elite humans will survive, and they are intent on seeing that happen. The WEF'ers, the Soros acolytes, Earth Firsters and the good old communists do not believe the United States is a useful construct as a Constitutional Republic, and they want to see it go away
Obama clearly thought that the US and Israel both needed to be taken down a peg. Biden is simply following what he thinks will give him maximum domestic political advantage as told to him by his advisors. The administration culture, I think, remains strongly Obama-influenced.
Defense Production Act some more refineries? New Farm Bill have us concentrate on oilseeds for biofuels and materials to stretch petroleum supplies? Coal-to-Liquid Fuel plants get built over enviros objections? Are we willing to do all these to keep things running or not?
sadly, tragically, change doesn't often come without hurt preceding it. The U.S is going to have to get hurt; badly, with something beyond a mere Pearl Harbor or 9/11.
"mere", I say. Our country is going to have to get knocked to it's knees, while friendly nations overseas are fully driven down into the mud...........before (or if ) we can rise again.
One simple heuristic I believe will be useful: keep an eye out for the disappearance of "...in a way that..." language from official statements about growth, development, production, etc. As long as accomplishing the main thing, whatever that main thing may be (ex: building a refinery or nuke power plant, improving k-12 education, buying a warplane, etc), isn't a sufficiently good outcome *on its own* and must be done "...in a way that..." serves a host of social causes de jure (equity, inclusivity, enviro, etc, etc, etc) in order to be justified, we haven't hit rock bottom.
Biofuels was always a mistake. If it had been possible to turn roughage and waste into alcohol, it might have been practical, but almost all such programs are devoted to turning FOOD into alcohol, most usually corn. The boom in alcohol for fuel was accompanied by, and DIRECLY CAUSED, higher prices for actual food.
Ethanol from grain produces ethanol and distiller's grains, which are livestock feed. An actual goal of the program was to raise commodity prices enough to reduce spending on price supports. While it helped, bigger factors were expansion of livestock production, especially in Asia, and increased commodity speculation by financial firms. All assisted by weather.
I think the "corn lobby": had a lot to do with that. If the "wood lobby" had been stronger, we might be putting methanol in our fuel instead of ethanol
Wait a minute Sal. We have (don't we?) the GREAT GREEN FLEET!!!
Despite $26 per Gallon costs the USN still believes it is fighting the global "climate crisis" AND finding the elusive multi-colored unicorns. So the US of A is good on this oil thingie. Let the others defend their own interests in those far off choke points. And in 5 years it won't matter to many EU countries as they will have a muslim majority, and the winds of political change will blow strong.
From All Hands
"Great Green Fleet Themes
For the Navy and Marine Corps, energy efficiency provides:
COMBAT ADVANTAGE- Using energy efficiently enables us to go farther, stay longer and deliver more firepower.
STRATEGIC ADVANTAGE- Using alternative fuels creates flexibility and brings us closer to energy independence.
FORCE PROTECTION ADVANTAGE- Using energy efficiently takes fuel convoys off the road and reduces the amount of time our ships are tied to oilers, reducing vulnerabilities to Sailors and Marines."
Waitaminnit. How the frak does using alternative fuels take fuel convoys off roads? Magic fairy dust to transport these alternative fuels to their destinations? Egad.
the Asst Amy Sec said much the same about how electric combat vehicles would save lives by avoiding all those vulnerable POL truck convoys. Same talking points
The Great Green Fleet is a great idea. Maybe they can cruise around the world without refueling, and while they are doing it, the crew can spell out E=MC2 on the flight deck of one of the ships.
Exactamento- the Zumwalts shoulda been nuc powered, then turn them into arsenal ships. An old (50+ years) friend was XO of Truxtun and has lamented several times about the lack of nuke power for cruisers.
But CRS believes a $120 million F-35 dropping a $250000 bomb on a 10 year old Toyota truck with 2 Hamas terrorists makes "financial sense". We went astray somewheres long ago.
Putting dollar values on capabilities of war machines in peace time. Makes perfect sense until a war breaks out and being 100 NM closer to the action, because you didn't have to refuel during the ocean crossing, becomes the difference in the outcome of an engagement.
You can also blame the search for the mythical peace dividend in the 1990s. Ironically the fall of the Soviet Union, brought about in large part by $10 a barrel oil, also brought about the end of a an all Nuclear US fleet.
Good map to keep in mind. Thank you, CDR. Two points I would like to add.
One. We saw how one container ship - the Ever Given - could stop traffic on the Suez Canal. Imagine what would happen if someone was deliberately trying to do so. Economies of scale can so easily become diseconomies of scale. It was only yesterday that the Maersk Triple E Class (18,000 teu) was the be all and end all of containers shipping. Now, the sky is the limit.
Second concerning the shock of the first energy crisis of the 1970s. That shock might not have been so bad but for the economic policies of the Nixon administration. Does anyone remember Phases I thorugh IV to deal with the inflation stemming from the Vietnam War and the Great Society? (I suspect I am older than CDR Salamander.) Price controls had a deleterious effect throught out the entire energy industry much like rent control has upon housing in New York City.
"That shock might not have been so bad but for the economic policies of the Nixon administration. Does anyone remember Phases I through IV to deal with the inflation stemming from the Vietnam War and the Great Society?"
In fact, I do!
Pete, you are peddling some shabby revisionist history.
Nixon wasn't responsible for the inflation brought on be twin follies of the Great Society and the Vietnam War.
That was all on Kennedy, Johnson and the solidly held Democratic Congress.
"The massive tax cuts proposed by Kennedy in 1962, and signed into law by Lyndon Baines Johnson after Kennedy’s death succeeded in stimulating demand, creating growth in the economy… Business was booming, jobs were plentiful...and unemployment was near an all-time low. But as the economy heated up, the prices began raising out of control. Many economists felt a tax increase would take money out of the hands of the consumers and business… Spending would drop… inflationary pressures would retreat."
The longest war in American history had significant economic effects both domestically and internationally in terms of what was spent on the war and what expenses had to be cut."
I wasn't trying to rewrite history or blame Nixon for Johnson's mistakes.
Nixon was dealt a bad hand in 1969.
His responses - in retrospect - did not work.
He did not want to abandon South Vietnam but hoped for peace with honor. The end result was a humiliating defeat.
He wanted to solve our economic problems through wage and price controls as well as cutting the last links between the dollar and gold. These actions contributed to energy crises and soaring inflation.
"We saw how one container ship - the Ever Given - could stop traffic on the Suez Canal. Imagine what would happen if someone was deliberately trying to do so."
No need to imagine it...
The canal was closed 1967 to 1975....
It was the USN that led the effort to reopen it....
We sold 1 million barrels out of 180 million barrels to a Houston-based business controlled by China. To say we sold our SPR off "to China" is spurious.
I knew the Congressional Research Service was deceiving the citizenry. Thank you for clearing this up. https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN12110 Not only is CRS publishing numbers that are off, they also fail to account for exports of refined product to China from US companies that purchased from the SPR. Because, if jobs are kept in congressional districts, who cares if the export is crude or distillate. Kinda like those foreign refineries that are buying cheap Russian oil, refining it, and selling distillate to the EU. Everyone feels better becuse the books show sanctions are still in effect. Clink those crystal glasses at the DC cocktail parties and drink up!
So I'm just going by the numbers in the Reuters article linked to in the article. The CRS summary looks like it's covering a slightly longer historical window than the Reuters piece. I place a lot of value in CRS, they generally do really good work (within the limitations placed on them by the Congressional offices that prompt their queries).
'cept the SPR was meant for emergency domestic use. Selling to foreign partners is egregious enough. Selling to China borders on insanity especially when considering China has it's own SPR. Perhaps it's time to ITAR oil.
Good morning Commander and all. Just to let you know that there are no hard feelings regarding my sharing of the Tucker Carlson meme, I thought that I would share my joke for today! 😜Yea, my deep Thoughts joke for today: A Rabbi walks into a bar and buys Pornhub. The next thing you know, they are turning the Gaza Strip into a New Las Vegas, Baby!😜😘😎BTW, Rabbi Solomon Friedman owns pornhub, As of Oct 15, 2023.
What exactly makes you think we welcome your mental droppings here? Either read the room and start behaving like the guest you are, or stand by for an encounter with the Shore Patrol.
Let’s start with those sales of SPR oil to the PRC. Proof positive that the nation’s capital is inhabited by idiots and mountebanks. Had I known the Trump administration had done that, as well as the Biden team, I would have cried “foul” and urged my representative to begin impeachment proceedings in 2017. Contrary to the opinion of people in DC, the SPR is NOT a political tool to reduce the domestic price of gas at the pump. And it absolutely should never be sold to our avowed enemies. Selling oil to PRC is akin to selling scrap steel to Japan in the 1930’s.
Oh, I fully understand why it’s done. My objections are (1) the SPR was always ever intended to provide fuel in time of war (and we are moving in three different directions these days trying to back ourselves into one), and (2) I hate cheap political theatrics that don’t address the underlying problem.
Was stationed in the Bay Area during the '73 Arab Oil Embargo. California rationed gasoline by odd or even license plate numbers. All that did was make almost everyone buy gasoline on their allowed day which caused huge, long gas lines, hot tempers, sometimes violence, and a feeling of doom. It was a horrible policy. Several shipmates and I with even plate numbers conspired to share our plates with those who had odd numbers. One guy had an out-of-slate plate which was good for odd or even days. It was nothing to spend between 2-3 hours gas shopping. I took a book to pass the time. The only upside to it all was when a friend and I got stopped by the CHP because we were taking a quick p_ss beneath a freeway overpass. ( I was 23, stayed hydrated by beer more than water and was as yet uncivilized.) The Patrolman was very angry, looked prone to ticketing us or arresting us after giving us a wood shampoo. He said, "What the Hell are you guys doing p_ssing on the highway? Why didn't you stop at a gas station?" I answered, "Sorry, Sir. We were pointed away from traffic, had to go real bad and all the gas stations closed at sunset." Our lucky day. I guess the cop was thinking "Frigging OPEC" like we and the rest of America was. He sent us on our way.
While '73 was just a huge worrisome inconvenience when I look back at it, it is a terrible memory I care to never re-live again. A deliberate prolonged interruption of oil supplies would be disastrous for us. Or worse, a victory for the eco-weenie climatists who want 15 Minute Cities, EV's, and for all the prole's to ride the bus so that we can get to know and like each other better.
Dammit, NEC. Bought a used copy of that book for $4.79 at Amazon. My reading queue is now bigger that I'll ever be able to manage. Makes me wish I'd taken one of those Evelyn Wood courses back when I still trainable.
I hope you are a wood worker. I have nine oak bookshelves that are seven feet tall (every room also has at least one pair of reading glasses.) My wife won't let me build anymore shelves so it is always painful to figure out what goes when I bring a new book home. On the plus side, we don't have a television so having a good library is a plus.
Shelves in every room, some floor to ceiling, most that stand above furniture to the ceiling. Only use the reading glasses for the computer. 12-14" away my vision is near perfect for my 20/400 eyes. I chuckle about my 20/400 eyes...they said I'd never drive ships. Ha!
Great story Dale. In 73, I was 6 and I remember my dad traded my moms Torino in for a Vega station wagon. He kept his Mercury Montego but before he went on the Big E’s 74 -75 WESTPAC he would use my mom’s Vega to get around as Lemoore’s operations side and airfield was a couple of miles away from base housing side. He sold that Vega when he got back from cruise she got a ford galaxy 500 as an upgrade. We would get our gas on base so the impacts weren’t as hard on a navy family in NAS Lemoore. But I remember the gas lines and rationed based license plate system.
I was driving a 1972 VW 411 wagon at the time. The price of gasoline went up 36% to around 53¢ after the '73 embargo. Minimum wage in 1973 was $1.60. My base pay was $537.90. The hike hurt. We got the national 55 mph speed limit from the do-gooders from 1973 to 1987. My next three cars were all VW Rabbits. No gas guzzlers for watashi since 1973.
Step-Dad had a "panel express" (according to wikipedia "The panel express has steel panels in place of the wagon's rear side glass, an enclosed storage area under the load floor, and a low-back driver's seat. An auxiliary passenger seat was optional.")
He wasn't terribly social after his service in the British Army; didn't opt for the passenger seat option, lol.
That said, we had pretty good luck. folks bought a 77 Vega coup and put 100,000+ on it before I got it up to 105mph or so (downhill, of course) in high school
"All that did was make almost everyone buy gasoline on their allowed day which caused huge, long gas lines, hot tempers, sometimes violence, and a feeling of doom."
In high school living on NAS Pensacola (Qtrs 35 by the then photo school, guess now Admin Bldg)...
Big digression... Thats a right interesting patch of real estate. The parade ground had actually been a pretty deep valley/gully the Army had filled in. The area was also the sight of the first Spanish Presidio, Santa Maria del Galve, which predated Fort San Carlos. The valley area where the parade ground is now was where a settlement had sprung up outside the stockade...
The Israelis' aircraft losses were critical. Where the Aviation Schools are now on the former Chevalier Field, was the Pensacola NARF (Naval Air Rework Facility for those who may not be familiar). The Navy was flying A-4C's -then in surplus- to Sherman Field, taken down the 'tow road' to the NARF, repainted, and towed back to Sherman as fast as they could be turned around. There, they were getting put on C-5's for transport to Israel.
How many C-5's are around today that could make that happen?
One afternoon coming home on the bus from school, we were stopped at the front gate by the Marines -armed BTW-, who came aboard the bus, and had all us kids show our ID's. Amazingly, I don't think anybody didn't have theirs!
Found out later it was because DEFCON 3 had been declared...
They are gone now, but on Barrancas Ave, just north of the bridge going onto the base, were 2 gas stations that always had a gas war going on. The prices prior to the Embargo were usually 15-20 cents a gallon. During the gas crisis, the prices spiked to a then stratospheric 50 cents a gal! After things settled down, the prices never got as low as they were, usually about 35 cents.
Great time to grow up! Evokes memories of this contemporaneous ditty...
"Another little side story. During this period, my brother worked at the Naval Air Rework Facility(NARF) at NAS Pensacola. He worked on refurbishing A-4s. Israel was scarfing up all the A-4s they could find and send them to Pensacola to prepare for battle. They only wanted two things fixed, flight controls and bomb releases (and, of course, engines, which NARF didn't do). He said the planes would come in with fuel leaking all over the place but none were fixed just shipped."
"Thirty-six A-4 Skyhawks from U.S. stocks, staging from Lajes were refueled by SAC KC-135A tankers from Pease Air Force Base, New Hampshire and U.S. Navy tankers from the USS John F. Kennedy west of the Straits of Gibraltar. They then flew on to the USS Franklin D. Roosevelt southeast of Sicily where they stayed overnight, then continued on to Israel refueling once more from tankers launched from the USS Independence south of Crete.[15]"
Great post, Sid. Was stationed at NTTC Corry Station in 1986 and the Pensacola area has been my homestead ever since. Lots of history in this town. Dr. Bence has been a fixture here forever.
Thanks, Sid. 17 of my 26 years was collateral duty or full time EW work as an RD, EW, CWO and LDO. It was a fascinating world. Small community, good people, fun job, fond memories.
The only time dad had us load the car and be prepared to head to my aunts house with a phone call from him. We lived at Sheppard and he had received a warning order to be prepared to flush the school house with 24 hours notice and head to his wartime duty. The B-52s and KC-135s left the alert facility. Weird time for a kid for about a week but we went over the road maps and family friends locations along the way multiple times. Asked him about it later and he said that time and during Cuba were the only two times he got nervous mostly because he had time to think about it. During Cuba he was in Germany and saw the fighters loaded with nukes sitting on the flight line for several days and that gave him time to think about it as well.
The Navy jets in Sanford were two men and a nuke. They'd launch off a carrier, race to the Soviet Union, yank on a lever over the target. A chute would pop out, drag the nuke with it while the pilot and navigator scooted away. Can you imagine? Those were some brave #$%#@ers!
(Joe Tully was Wing Cdr when Dad was CO of his first squadron)
The A-5 spent very little time as a primary nuke attack aircraft, as frankly, the bomb ejection system didn't work. I think there were only 2 operational deployments of the A3J/A-5 straight attack version.
The A-5 was the 'Zumwalt' of its day.
Since the SSBN's were proving immediately viable, the A-5s were repurposed as RA-5's for reconnaissance.
Sid, that would be bldg 1500 where the PH A school used to be. It’s now the base CO’s headquarters and quarterdeck. Your old quarters likely didn’t survive the hurricanes. That entire area “old army Camp Barrancas” from Slemmer road to Redoubt road got hit hard by hurricanes and neglect. There are a few houses still there including the Base CO and the Blue angle Boss.
Qtrs 35 -as it was numbered the- is still there just on the east side of the now Admin building.... Middle house in that row. It was dubbed 'Menopause Row'.
Factoid: At the south end of that row where the empty lot is, was a General's quarters. The Aide's house still looks to be there. We called it the "Gorgas House" as Dr. William Gorgas was billeted there when he was fighting yellow fever at Barrancas.
Never understood why, but there was a headstone marking the grave of a 10 year old girl who had died in the 20s on the southwest corner of that lot. I last visited there briefly in the early 80's, and the headstone was gone.
It burned in Oct. 71 when it was being rehabbed, so it was empty. Spontaneous combustion in some rags.
In WWI, those houses, and the ones on the row behind the fort, were camouflaged. There are pics around of them.
Saw an article that showed Venezuela as holding the greatest reserves by far; thus RU oligarchy interest and protection of that dictatorial regime that is causing a hollowing exit of intelligentsia. Not sure if it is high quality like Permian basin or Kuwaiti sweet (low sulphur) crude.
"Saw an article that showed Venezuela as holding the greatest reserves by far"
I worked as a navigator on Offshore Seismic Survey ships for a bit. We were contracted by the post - coup PDVSA to conduct a "Reservoir Analysis" of the Lake Maracaibo field.
When the Dutch first started to exploit the Maracaibo Basin 120 years ago, they found they couldn't go wrong. Poke a hole anywhere, " and up from the ground come a bubblin' pool"
Because it was so productive, the field had never been adequately mapped, but with production falling by the 90's, the Venezuelans wanted to know what was actually still there.
I wasn't on the analysis end of the biz, nor am I geophysicist, but I do know that the survey yielded evidence of an immense amount of reserves in that field, even after most of a century of haphazard drilling.
Yes. So nasty you have to cut it with naphtha to pump it. Just one step removed from tar sands.
Our refineries have been fitted out to run heavy sour since the 1990's, because that was what conventional plays were increasingly becoming. Now we have lots of light sweet shale oil and either need to retool (several hundred billion dollars) or run a blend. This is why there was domestic demand for Keystone XL. But the Biden mis-Administation would rather import Urals (especially prior to the Ukraine war) and reward the Venezualan regime.
The SPR is important; however, along the ANWR there are hundreds of millions of barrels of extractable oil. There is also an untapped field west of Pruhdoe Bay that Kissinger took off the table in the early/mid 70’s when he wanted the Saudis to buy U.S. debt. It is not that we lack the resources, it is that those with their hands on the levers of government are beholden to environmental extremists. Please show me just one person who is against clean water, clean air, or is for pollution. That person only exists in the minds if the Left. Green is the new red and it has been for some time.
Just for clarification. The acreage set aside in ANWR is akin to tearing a dollar bill into 10,000 tiny pieces and the drillable area is equal to 1/10,000 of ANWR.
Frankly, I'm tired of being a taxpayer subsidizing the price of oil for our 'allies'. Our defense dollars save them something like $75 / bbl on average, it's our hardware being worn down, our people at risk.
I'd be happy with rebuilding our refinery capacity to allow using our oil, for our uses, let foreign oil be refined and used and mostly PAID FOR by the foreigners.
Except oil trades on prices set by a global market. The amount of change to the global economy, energy markets, and productive activity writ large required to achieve what you're describing is honestly beyond comprehension.
And those prices are based on, first of all, extraction, refining and transportation costs. Imagine that the spot price on the UAE Dubai Cycle bord went up by $75 tomorrow reflecting the actual costs of protecting it while it's being moved.
It would do great things to WTI and Brent prices. and maybe make the Arabs start paying up to defend it, and fix their long-term problems.
Sure, nice to imagine that but that's all it is; imagination. There's simply no way to do what you're advocating without basically redoing the entire global energy market & infra (we tried w/ Russia, has not worked).
You admitted that US subsidies (by defending the oil in the gulf) is distorting the market.
The rest of the world benefits from that, the US far less so.
We (the US) should be pumping and refining oil domestically. The Canadians should be fracking oil and refining it in Canada (not shipping crude around the world). The Europeans, China, Japan, etc can benefit from the ME oil at the real price, and screw them. We have been protecting them since WWII. 100 years is enough
I was with a CARG a BLT, LPD/LSD no choppers, we went on alert in the 1973 war be ready to air transport to the arena, spent a month ashore in Vieques running infantry exercises and classes. Plan was roughly Chopper ride to nearest air strip that could handle C-130 or deploy to back to GITMO for any incursion there.
Today it's worse and scary We are in deep Kimchee here now.
The reason that we're no longer energy independent can be expressed on one word; "BIDEN". It's ENTIRELY the pResident's fault. Which means that it can be reversed. At least a few of the wells could be restarted, and rebuilding much of the fracking infrastructure could be rebuilt within a year. IF there was the political will to do so. Decline is a choice, and Biden chose to diminish the United States significantly. He should be arrested and charged with treason.
Agree here. Im loathe to sound like a tin foil hat guy- but the attacks on domestic oil, pushing the green agenda, not countering inflation, and many other examples all point towards a calculated destruction of the countrys economy. A struggling economy makes ppl more govt dependent. Add decades of (re)education in the public schools and colleges that produce generations willing to give up rights for govt-provided security. Then throw in a fresh bout of race and class warfare. Sprinkle in some things like transgenderism that makes even the most basic truths questionable, never mind actually important ideology, and you get a future that follows the socialist playbook pretty well...
Id like to think this isnt all calculated, and Id like to think the extremists arent smart enough to orchestrate this, but even if its all just coincidence and they bumbled their way here, its still happening and all this is painting a grim future...
*takes off tinfoil hat and quickly hides it in the closet
All the isolationist and energy independence types forget the impact of global events and markets on us even if we retreat into the impossible dream of a fortress America. Energy independence is a good/desirable thing but not an end all. We are island /maritime nation and if our trade partners' economies are impacted so is ours. In 2020, the United States ranked as the third largest global merchandise EXPORTER (yes we still make stuff). Total import/exports made up about 25% of our GDP in 2020. Think of the economic impact if that was lost.
How would this impact defense alliances? Would our allies put their own individual energy needs ahead of the collective?
I am a bit older than CDR Salamander and I remember the 73-74 oil embargo very well. It severely impacted alliances. I was in Germany at the time and Germany imposed things like no Sunday driving except for emergency vehicles. Germany would not allow us to fly equipment to Israel through/from Germany. Many of our allies stared calling for a more "even handed" policy toward the Arab states. IIRC only the Dutch really stood firm even when they where down to a 90 day supply of oil.
That's disingenuous, Tom. I think a policy of Making America Great Again is a very noble endeavor, and I also appreciate accuracy and inciteful reasoning.
The demonization of political opponents (with who most of us on this forum probably disagree at most 10-20% of policy) is an unfortunate tactic of our supposedly elite rulers and policy makers.
Agreed!! Im just old enough to remember when anyone whod announce they were a socialist would be shunned and/or treated like the village idiot. How we've gotten here is almost unbelievable. The fact that MAGA, in itself a concept that really shouldnt have anyone disagreeing with it, has been turned into a four letter word and somthing that demonizes a whole group of American well-wishers is absurd... The idea that wearing that positive slogan in public is now a likely precursor to having to exercise your 2nd Amendment rights shows how far off the rails things truly are...
Personally, I think "deplorable" either had too many letters in it or the Latin plural imperative "deplorate!" was confusing to learned aristocracy for it to be sloganized. A four-letter word OTOH is easy and has endless possibilities.
Pouring oil onto the troubled waters of the Gulf, Red Sea, Malacca Straits, and South China Sea is not going to bring us any smoother sailing. We are in for rough seas. Every time someone opines that we intervened in the mid-east strictly for our own (oil) good, they are shortsighted. We did so to keep the world moving. All of it.
That is in gravest peril now. Once, our Navy kept things fairly even keeled. That is well nigh "over and done"
what to do? what to do? what to do?
The Front Porch here knows; we need to spread the word.
We really have no choice but to keep the world moving forward. Our $200B+ annual ag exports rely on $10B annual fertilizer imports. The top 5 suppliers of fertilizer - Canada, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, & Qatar. Then there are chips, heavy industrial equipment, shoes and clothing, and a myriad of other industries where the US is reliant of foreign imports. We no longer extract the necessary resources (exception oil & gas) nor have a population trained to have a robust and resilient domestic industrial base.
The only thing that (usually, not always) makes me feel better about your last sentence is that the rest of the world is in no better shape, and many of our potential adversaries are in significantly worse positions.
In 2023, MAD has come to mean "Mutually Assured Dependence".
The elites, and some of their more closely held lackeys, always come out on top. Dependency stinks when you are the bottom 95%.
The free trader in me wants to point out that this is one of the advantages of trade; it leads to peace. Economic prosperity leads to a web of entanglement, entanglement which stops folks from killing each other. Iran knows this because the prospect of better economic relations between Israel and the House of Saud is what kicked this nonsense off.
Absolutely
Intra-European trade was enormous in June 1914.
"Free Trade" free for whom?
The problem with free trade is that for it to work everybody involved has to engage in free trade. If not the country engaging in free trade gets screwed by those that do not. Prime example is China. China is very protectionist when it comes to allowing companies to do business there. A company may get access to some cheap/forced labor for products to export our of China but if you want to sell products in China you mostly have to make them in China and be prepared to give up proprietary information in the process. The EU is another example. While technically a free trade zone most countries have carve outs to protect special interests/products/industrial bases to included EU subsidies/credits.
The Best example of a working free trade zone it the United States.. Among the the things the US Constitution did was establish , in effect, a free trade zone among the all the states.
"Mutually Assured Desperation" scares me more, COL C. Panicky, knee-jerk polices borne of desperation probably won't yield the desired outcomes.
No doubt, we can likely all sleep better if none of the major players are acting from positions of desperation. That's one of the reasons why I'm such a pessimist re: Taiwan...Xi is smart enough to read a demographics chart.
"Mutually Assured Dependence". I like that .
The current administration has made massive mistakes in energy policy from day one. They have dithered and played divest-to-reinvest games with the Navy since day one. Why would we expect them to take prompt, decisive action to fix either of those???
I'm skeptical that THEY viewed those decisions as mistakes. Destructionists gotta destruct, and ensuring that there are options to disrupt the flow of oil (as noted by our host, a Very Bad Thing for a lot of people) can make that easier.
According to 'THEY', a ruinous economic disruption with another Oil War is the best thing that could happen!
WE HAVE TO SAVE THE PLANET!!!
https://youtu.be/k9XmXRKSWQQ?si=sKurarRhIeovmzeT
They didn't make mistakes. They made decisions intended to drag America down to ruin.
Big difference.
I hear this from time to time. I'm genuinely curious as to the "why". Assuming you believe that "they made decisions intended to drag American down to ruin", what's your theory on why that would be POTUS et al's motivation?
I'm the furthest thing from a supporter of the current Admin, but incompetence mixed with greed & ego seems like a much more likely culprit than outright sabotage to me.
"incompetence mixed with greed & ego seems like a much more likely culprit"
exactly correct!
nice to see a rational, thoughtful, considered, comment
HANLON'S RAZOR to the nth degree!
I think incompetence and greed explain the behavior of the figureheads, but there is a core of less visible, in some cases younger, "idealistic" people that believe a one world government, governing maybe 10% of the current population, is the only way the earth and a few elite humans will survive, and they are intent on seeing that happen. The WEF'ers, the Soros acolytes, Earth Firsters and the good old communists do not believe the United States is a useful construct as a Constitutional Republic, and they want to see it go away
Obama clearly thought that the US and Israel both needed to be taken down a peg. Biden is simply following what he thinks will give him maximum domestic political advantage as told to him by his advisors. The administration culture, I think, remains strongly Obama-influenced.
Defense Production Act some more refineries? New Farm Bill have us concentrate on oilseeds for biofuels and materials to stretch petroleum supplies? Coal-to-Liquid Fuel plants get built over enviros objections? Are we willing to do all these to keep things running or not?
sadly, tragically, change doesn't often come without hurt preceding it. The U.S is going to have to get hurt; badly, with something beyond a mere Pearl Harbor or 9/11.
"mere", I say. Our country is going to have to get knocked to it's knees, while friendly nations overseas are fully driven down into the mud...........before (or if ) we can rise again.
Co-sign. Sadly.
One simple heuristic I believe will be useful: keep an eye out for the disappearance of "...in a way that..." language from official statements about growth, development, production, etc. As long as accomplishing the main thing, whatever that main thing may be (ex: building a refinery or nuke power plant, improving k-12 education, buying a warplane, etc), isn't a sufficiently good outcome *on its own* and must be done "...in a way that..." serves a host of social causes de jure (equity, inclusivity, enviro, etc, etc, etc) in order to be justified, we haven't hit rock bottom.
Yes. See Gman79 comments on Great Green Fleet. What nonsense. Could secnav have been ordered to put out such comments? Does he believe in it?
excellent observation
Biofuels was always a mistake. If it had been possible to turn roughage and waste into alcohol, it might have been practical, but almost all such programs are devoted to turning FOOD into alcohol, most usually corn. The boom in alcohol for fuel was accompanied by, and DIRECLY CAUSED, higher prices for actual food.
Ethanol from grain produces ethanol and distiller's grains, which are livestock feed. An actual goal of the program was to raise commodity prices enough to reduce spending on price supports. While it helped, bigger factors were expansion of livestock production, especially in Asia, and increased commodity speculation by financial firms. All assisted by weather.
I think the "corn lobby": had a lot to do with that. If the "wood lobby" had been stronger, we might be putting methanol in our fuel instead of ethanol
Never let math undercut good old fashioned political graft. https://www.nationalreview.com/2011/12/methanol-wins-robert-zubrin/
Thanks; I knew I'd read that someplace:)
Article contains the problem with a methanol switch. "Coal, natural gas" which would cause environmental groups to oppose it.
Take the money that you're going to waste on biofuels and spend it on nuclear. Better investment.
Except nukes (and I love them too) don't help transportation much. Free up 20% of diesel consumption for exports to allies would, though.
Wait a minute Sal. We have (don't we?) the GREAT GREEN FLEET!!!
Despite $26 per Gallon costs the USN still believes it is fighting the global "climate crisis" AND finding the elusive multi-colored unicorns. So the US of A is good on this oil thingie. Let the others defend their own interests in those far off choke points. And in 5 years it won't matter to many EU countries as they will have a muslim majority, and the winds of political change will blow strong.
From All Hands
"Great Green Fleet Themes
For the Navy and Marine Corps, energy efficiency provides:
COMBAT ADVANTAGE- Using energy efficiently enables us to go farther, stay longer and deliver more firepower.
STRATEGIC ADVANTAGE- Using alternative fuels creates flexibility and brings us closer to energy independence.
FORCE PROTECTION ADVANTAGE- Using energy efficiently takes fuel convoys off the road and reduces the amount of time our ships are tied to oilers, reducing vulnerabilities to Sailors and Marines."
Waitaminnit. How the frak does using alternative fuels take fuel convoys off roads? Magic fairy dust to transport these alternative fuels to their destinations? Egad.
the Asst Amy Sec said much the same about how electric combat vehicles would save lives by avoiding all those vulnerable POL truck convoys. Same talking points
At least everyone has the magic fairy dust, then.
You missed the "using energy efficiently" fairy dust component. We just will need less of everything!
The Great Green Fleet is a great idea. Maybe they can cruise around the world without refueling, and while they are doing it, the crew can spell out E=MC2 on the flight deck of one of the ships.
Exactamento- the Zumwalts shoulda been nuc powered, then turn them into arsenal ships. An old (50+ years) friend was XO of Truxtun and has lamented several times about the lack of nuke power for cruisers.
IIRC, CRS said nuclear power for cruisers didn't make financial sense if oil was below $75/barrel.
But CRS believes a $120 million F-35 dropping a $250000 bomb on a 10 year old Toyota truck with 2 Hamas terrorists makes "financial sense". We went astray somewheres long ago.
Putting dollar values on capabilities of war machines in peace time. Makes perfect sense until a war breaks out and being 100 NM closer to the action, because you didn't have to refuel during the ocean crossing, becomes the difference in the outcome of an engagement.
A Navy does not make economic sense; unless you want to safeguard a free-trading island nation. Defending a free people is not a business.
You can also blame the search for the mythical peace dividend in the 1990s. Ironically the fall of the Soviet Union, brought about in large part by $10 a barrel oil, also brought about the end of a an all Nuclear US fleet.
No it's the Great Brown Fleet. Rust never sleeps on US' ships.
Good map to keep in mind. Thank you, CDR. Two points I would like to add.
One. We saw how one container ship - the Ever Given - could stop traffic on the Suez Canal. Imagine what would happen if someone was deliberately trying to do so. Economies of scale can so easily become diseconomies of scale. It was only yesterday that the Maersk Triple E Class (18,000 teu) was the be all and end all of containers shipping. Now, the sky is the limit.
Second concerning the shock of the first energy crisis of the 1970s. That shock might not have been so bad but for the economic policies of the Nixon administration. Does anyone remember Phases I thorugh IV to deal with the inflation stemming from the Vietnam War and the Great Society? (I suspect I am older than CDR Salamander.) Price controls had a deleterious effect throught out the entire energy industry much like rent control has upon housing in New York City.
We continue to live in interesting times.
"That shock might not have been so bad but for the economic policies of the Nixon administration. Does anyone remember Phases I through IV to deal with the inflation stemming from the Vietnam War and the Great Society?"
In fact, I do!
Pete, you are peddling some shabby revisionist history.
Nixon wasn't responsible for the inflation brought on be twin follies of the Great Society and the Vietnam War.
That was all on Kennedy, Johnson and the solidly held Democratic Congress.
https://wwnorton.com/college/econ/ecu7/section07/case-studies.htm
"The massive tax cuts proposed by Kennedy in 1962, and signed into law by Lyndon Baines Johnson after Kennedy’s death succeeded in stimulating demand, creating growth in the economy… Business was booming, jobs were plentiful...and unemployment was near an all-time low. But as the economy heated up, the prices began raising out of control. Many economists felt a tax increase would take money out of the hands of the consumers and business… Spending would drop… inflationary pressures would retreat."
https://www.thecollector.com/vietnam-war-economic-effects/
"The Economic Effects of the Vietnam War
The longest war in American history had significant economic effects both domestically and internationally in terms of what was spent on the war and what expenses had to be cut."
Sid,
I wasn't trying to rewrite history or blame Nixon for Johnson's mistakes.
Nixon was dealt a bad hand in 1969.
His responses - in retrospect - did not work.
He did not want to abandon South Vietnam but hoped for peace with honor. The end result was a humiliating defeat.
He wanted to solve our economic problems through wage and price controls as well as cutting the last links between the dollar and gold. These actions contributed to energy crises and soaring inflation.
That's the way I see it.
Your previous comment never mentioned Kennedy, Johnson, and the Democratic Congress...
Only shade on Nixon's attempts to fix the intractable problem that left an indelible scar on this country.
What I see is you dribbled out a small piece of the story, with a totally bogus inference on who was at fault.
Sid,
Seems like I struck an old wound.
Again, looking back Nixon was dealt a bad hand. He had successes, but many failures especially in his economic policies.
And I didn't even bring up the subject of Disco!
Disco wasn't around in 1973...
It hadn't broken out of the Soul genre yet...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lODBVM802H8
"We saw how one container ship - the Ever Given - could stop traffic on the Suez Canal. Imagine what would happen if someone was deliberately trying to do so."
No need to imagine it...
The canal was closed 1967 to 1975....
It was the USN that led the effort to reopen it....
https://media.defense.gov/2019/Apr/10/2002112519/-1/-1/1/AH197602.pdf
https://www.usslittlerock.org/images/pdf/ADA010261.pdf
With the RH-53's and MSC's soon to be gone...
If they aren't already...
What are the odds we can do it again in another year?
(Made my first transit in '77 for a 7 month MEF cruise...)
We sold 1 million barrels out of 180 million barrels to a Houston-based business controlled by China. To say we sold our SPR off "to China" is spurious.
I knew the Congressional Research Service was deceiving the citizenry. Thank you for clearing this up. https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN12110 Not only is CRS publishing numbers that are off, they also fail to account for exports of refined product to China from US companies that purchased from the SPR. Because, if jobs are kept in congressional districts, who cares if the export is crude or distillate. Kinda like those foreign refineries that are buying cheap Russian oil, refining it, and selling distillate to the EU. Everyone feels better becuse the books show sanctions are still in effect. Clink those crystal glasses at the DC cocktail parties and drink up!
So I'm just going by the numbers in the Reuters article linked to in the article. The CRS summary looks like it's covering a slightly longer historical window than the Reuters piece. I place a lot of value in CRS, they generally do really good work (within the limitations placed on them by the Congressional offices that prompt their queries).
'cept the SPR was meant for emergency domestic use. Selling to foreign partners is egregious enough. Selling to China borders on insanity especially when considering China has it's own SPR. Perhaps it's time to ITAR oil.
yea, verily
Good morning Commander and all. Just to let you know that there are no hard feelings regarding my sharing of the Tucker Carlson meme, I thought that I would share my joke for today! 😜Yea, my deep Thoughts joke for today: A Rabbi walks into a bar and buys Pornhub. The next thing you know, they are turning the Gaza Strip into a New Las Vegas, Baby!😜😘😎BTW, Rabbi Solomon Friedman owns pornhub, As of Oct 15, 2023.
Love you guys! Hurrah!
What exactly makes you think we welcome your mental droppings here? Either read the room and start behaving like the guest you are, or stand by for an encounter with the Shore Patrol.
Let’s start with those sales of SPR oil to the PRC. Proof positive that the nation’s capital is inhabited by idiots and mountebanks. Had I known the Trump administration had done that, as well as the Biden team, I would have cried “foul” and urged my representative to begin impeachment proceedings in 2017. Contrary to the opinion of people in DC, the SPR is NOT a political tool to reduce the domestic price of gas at the pump. And it absolutely should never be sold to our avowed enemies. Selling oil to PRC is akin to selling scrap steel to Japan in the 1930’s.
It is a political tool to keep energy prices down, though. Brent Johnson had a good explanation on YouTube.
Oh, I fully understand why it’s done. My objections are (1) the SPR was always ever intended to provide fuel in time of war (and we are moving in three different directions these days trying to back ourselves into one), and (2) I hate cheap political theatrics that don’t address the underlying problem.
PotUS Trump at least tried to restock it when the price was low, but Congress wouldn't allow it.
And gas rationed by odd or even license plate numbers…
been there, done that.
Was stationed in the Bay Area during the '73 Arab Oil Embargo. California rationed gasoline by odd or even license plate numbers. All that did was make almost everyone buy gasoline on their allowed day which caused huge, long gas lines, hot tempers, sometimes violence, and a feeling of doom. It was a horrible policy. Several shipmates and I with even plate numbers conspired to share our plates with those who had odd numbers. One guy had an out-of-slate plate which was good for odd or even days. It was nothing to spend between 2-3 hours gas shopping. I took a book to pass the time. The only upside to it all was when a friend and I got stopped by the CHP because we were taking a quick p_ss beneath a freeway overpass. ( I was 23, stayed hydrated by beer more than water and was as yet uncivilized.) The Patrolman was very angry, looked prone to ticketing us or arresting us after giving us a wood shampoo. He said, "What the Hell are you guys doing p_ssing on the highway? Why didn't you stop at a gas station?" I answered, "Sorry, Sir. We were pointed away from traffic, had to go real bad and all the gas stations closed at sunset." Our lucky day. I guess the cop was thinking "Frigging OPEC" like we and the rest of America was. He sent us on our way.
While '73 was just a huge worrisome inconvenience when I look back at it, it is a terrible memory I care to never re-live again. A deliberate prolonged interruption of oil supplies would be disastrous for us. Or worse, a victory for the eco-weenie climatists who want 15 Minute Cities, EV's, and for all the prole's to ride the bus so that we can get to know and like each other better.
"A deliberate prolonged interruption of oil supplies would be disastrous for us."
Last Light by Alex Scarrow is a good read. Avoid the miniseries reimagining on Peacock stream.
Dammit, NEC. Bought a used copy of that book for $4.79 at Amazon. My reading queue is now bigger that I'll ever be able to manage. Makes me wish I'd taken one of those Evelyn Wood courses back when I still trainable.
I hope you are a wood worker. I have nine oak bookshelves that are seven feet tall (every room also has at least one pair of reading glasses.) My wife won't let me build anymore shelves so it is always painful to figure out what goes when I bring a new book home. On the plus side, we don't have a television so having a good library is a plus.
Shelves in every room, some floor to ceiling, most that stand above furniture to the ceiling. Only use the reading glasses for the computer. 12-14" away my vision is near perfect for my 20/400 eyes. I chuckle about my 20/400 eyes...they said I'd never drive ships. Ha!
Looks interesting; l'll put the books on my list:)
Great story Dale. In 73, I was 6 and I remember my dad traded my moms Torino in for a Vega station wagon. He kept his Mercury Montego but before he went on the Big E’s 74 -75 WESTPAC he would use my mom’s Vega to get around as Lemoore’s operations side and airfield was a couple of miles away from base housing side. He sold that Vega when he got back from cruise she got a ford galaxy 500 as an upgrade. We would get our gas on base so the impacts weren’t as hard on a navy family in NAS Lemoore. But I remember the gas lines and rationed based license plate system.
I was driving a 1972 VW 411 wagon at the time. The price of gasoline went up 36% to around 53¢ after the '73 embargo. Minimum wage in 1973 was $1.60. My base pay was $537.90. The hike hurt. We got the national 55 mph speed limit from the do-gooders from 1973 to 1987. My next three cars were all VW Rabbits. No gas guzzlers for watashi since 1973.
Step-Dad had a "panel express" (according to wikipedia "The panel express has steel panels in place of the wagon's rear side glass, an enclosed storage area under the load floor, and a low-back driver's seat. An auxiliary passenger seat was optional.")
He wasn't terribly social after his service in the British Army; didn't opt for the passenger seat option, lol.
That said, we had pretty good luck. folks bought a 77 Vega coup and put 100,000+ on it before I got it up to 105mph or so (downhill, of course) in high school
"All that did was make almost everyone buy gasoline on their allowed day which caused huge, long gas lines, hot tempers, sometimes violence, and a feeling of doom."
I recall the same in CT
Memories of '73 Yom Kippur...
In high school living on NAS Pensacola (Qtrs 35 by the then photo school, guess now Admin Bldg)...
Big digression... Thats a right interesting patch of real estate. The parade ground had actually been a pretty deep valley/gully the Army had filled in. The area was also the sight of the first Spanish Presidio, Santa Maria del Galve, which predated Fort San Carlos. The valley area where the parade ground is now was where a settlement had sprung up outside the stockade...
https://www.c-span.org/video/?107848-1/presidio-santa-maria-de-galve
https://uwf.edu/cassh/community-outreach/anthropology-and-archaeology/research/faculty-and-staff-projects/colonial/presidio-santa-maria-de-galve/
https://www.amazon.com/Presidio-Santa-Mar%C3%ADa-Galve-Pensacola/dp/0813026601
Anywho...
The Israelis' aircraft losses were critical. Where the Aviation Schools are now on the former Chevalier Field, was the Pensacola NARF (Naval Air Rework Facility for those who may not be familiar). The Navy was flying A-4C's -then in surplus- to Sherman Field, taken down the 'tow road' to the NARF, repainted, and towed back to Sherman as fast as they could be turned around. There, they were getting put on C-5's for transport to Israel.
How many C-5's are around today that could make that happen?
One afternoon coming home on the bus from school, we were stopped at the front gate by the Marines -armed BTW-, who came aboard the bus, and had all us kids show our ID's. Amazingly, I don't think anybody didn't have theirs!
Found out later it was because DEFCON 3 had been declared...
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/1973-america-russia-almost-fought-nuclear-war-over-syria-25340
They are gone now, but on Barrancas Ave, just north of the bridge going onto the base, were 2 gas stations that always had a gas war going on. The prices prior to the Embargo were usually 15-20 cents a gallon. During the gas crisis, the prices spiked to a then stratospheric 50 cents a gal! After things settled down, the prices never got as low as they were, usually about 35 cents.
Great time to grow up! Evokes memories of this contemporaneous ditty...
Music was -definitely- better then:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4NwP3wes4M8
The internet was decades away of course. Browsing now though, I must've had this wrong...
"There, they were getting put on C-5's for transport to Israel."
27 doesn't quite fit into 19...
Knowing what I know now, I will fess up to that 50 year ASSumption.
But -with certainty- I saw multiple C-5s at Sherman that October, so perhaps they were loading up on aircraft parts from the NARF.
I also saw the A-4s coming and going from the NARF.
Here is something supporting that:
https://ww2aircraft.net/forum/threads/oct-6th-1973-40-years-ago-the-yom-kippur-war.38662/?amp=1
"Another little side story. During this period, my brother worked at the Naval Air Rework Facility(NARF) at NAS Pensacola. He worked on refurbishing A-4s. Israel was scarfing up all the A-4s they could find and send them to Pensacola to prepare for battle. They only wanted two things fixed, flight controls and bomb releases (and, of course, engines, which NARF didn't do). He said the planes would come in with fuel leaking all over the place but none were fixed just shipped."
The A-4's I saw must've have ferried over:
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2018/january/lest-we-forget-nickel-grass-us-resupplies-israel
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Nickel_Grass
https://web.archive.org/web/20081128102859/http://www.cna.org/documents/5500022100.pdf
"Thirty-six A-4 Skyhawks from U.S. stocks, staging from Lajes were refueled by SAC KC-135A tankers from Pease Air Force Base, New Hampshire and U.S. Navy tankers from the USS John F. Kennedy west of the Straits of Gibraltar. They then flew on to the USS Franklin D. Roosevelt southeast of Sicily where they stayed overnight, then continued on to Israel refueling once more from tankers launched from the USS Independence south of Crete.[15]"
Great post, Sid. Was stationed at NTTC Corry Station in 1986 and the Pensacola area has been my homestead ever since. Lots of history in this town. Dr. Bence has been a fixture here forever.
Here yah go Dale....
A brief clip of EW's at work that got stitched into this Vigilante vid...
https://youtu.be/eC2g-Svmnss?si=ZiZWi3QKTojvdqF1&t=1704
Thanks, Sid. 17 of my 26 years was collateral duty or full time EW work as an RD, EW, CWO and LDO. It was a fascinating world. Small community, good people, fun job, fond memories.
I enjoyed P-Cola when I was there, especially out at the beaches. I'm at the other end of I-10 from you in Jax now.
Glad to hear which end of I-10. The other end is LA, you know.
Yeah...ugh.
The only time dad had us load the car and be prepared to head to my aunts house with a phone call from him. We lived at Sheppard and he had received a warning order to be prepared to flush the school house with 24 hours notice and head to his wartime duty. The B-52s and KC-135s left the alert facility. Weird time for a kid for about a week but we went over the road maps and family friends locations along the way multiple times. Asked him about it later and he said that time and during Cuba were the only two times he got nervous mostly because he had time to think about it. During Cuba he was in Germany and saw the fighters loaded with nukes sitting on the flight line for several days and that gave him time to think about it as well.
I had the same experience during the Cuban Missile Crisis as a wee little kid.
Dad was CO of a VAH squadron at Sanford. Mom had the car packed; the plan being to head to the woods up by Ocala...
You do know your dad was insane. Insanely brave.
The Navy jets in Sanford were two men and a nuke. They'd launch off a carrier, race to the Soviet Union, yank on a lever over the target. A chute would pop out, drag the nuke with it while the pilot and navigator scooted away. Can you imagine? Those were some brave #$%#@ers!
That was the A-5, the replacement for the A-3.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YwZUxJ4QdNo&t=451s
(Joe Tully was Wing Cdr when Dad was CO of his first squadron)
The A-5 spent very little time as a primary nuke attack aircraft, as frankly, the bomb ejection system didn't work. I think there were only 2 operational deployments of the A3J/A-5 straight attack version.
The A-5 was the 'Zumwalt' of its day.
Since the SSBN's were proving immediately viable, the A-5s were repurposed as RA-5's for reconnaissance.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eC2g-Svmnss&t=2451s
We stumbled on this movie a few years ago and found it enjoyable. You might like it:)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matinee_(1993_film)
Sid, that would be bldg 1500 where the PH A school used to be. It’s now the base CO’s headquarters and quarterdeck. Your old quarters likely didn’t survive the hurricanes. That entire area “old army Camp Barrancas” from Slemmer road to Redoubt road got hit hard by hurricanes and neglect. There are a few houses still there including the Base CO and the Blue angle Boss.
Just looked at google maps....
Qtrs 35 -as it was numbered the- is still there just on the east side of the now Admin building.... Middle house in that row. It was dubbed 'Menopause Row'.
Factoid: At the south end of that row where the empty lot is, was a General's quarters. The Aide's house still looks to be there. We called it the "Gorgas House" as Dr. William Gorgas was billeted there when he was fighting yellow fever at Barrancas.
https://achh.army.mil/history/surgeongenerals-w-gorgas
Never understood why, but there was a headstone marking the grave of a 10 year old girl who had died in the 20s on the southwest corner of that lot. I last visited there briefly in the early 80's, and the headstone was gone.
It burned in Oct. 71 when it was being rehabbed, so it was empty. Spontaneous combustion in some rags.
In WWI, those houses, and the ones on the row behind the fort, were camouflaged. There are pics around of them.
The settlement has been restored to show what the old fort looked like.
Great memories Sid!
Found this...
https://www.loc.gov/resource/hhh.fl0061.photos/?sp=1&st=image
Judging by the tv antenna mast at the corner of the house, it was taken during the period I could have lived there...
Pics of some of the other old Army quarters at Barrancas below.
Realized this was the 'Gorgas House' so pics taken before 71 (72) when the house burned.
https://www.loc.gov/item/fl0064/
When built -before the oaks grew- the widow's walk would've had a million dollar view of the bay!
I know the area well. You were fortunate to have spent some of your childhood there.
Saw an article that showed Venezuela as holding the greatest reserves by far; thus RU oligarchy interest and protection of that dictatorial regime that is causing a hollowing exit of intelligentsia. Not sure if it is high quality like Permian basin or Kuwaiti sweet (low sulphur) crude.
I believe that Venezuelan crude is difficult to refine, but cheap to uplift.
"Saw an article that showed Venezuela as holding the greatest reserves by far"
I worked as a navigator on Offshore Seismic Survey ships for a bit. We were contracted by the post - coup PDVSA to conduct a "Reservoir Analysis" of the Lake Maracaibo field.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxJa7EvYoFI
When the Dutch first started to exploit the Maracaibo Basin 120 years ago, they found they couldn't go wrong. Poke a hole anywhere, " and up from the ground come a bubblin' pool"
http://www.energyglobalnews.com/lake-maracaibo-the-jewel-of-venezuela/
Because it was so productive, the field had never been adequately mapped, but with production falling by the 90's, the Venezuelans wanted to know what was actually still there.
I wasn't on the analysis end of the biz, nor am I geophysicist, but I do know that the survey yielded evidence of an immense amount of reserves in that field, even after most of a century of haphazard drilling.
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/21/5615
Shame is, the Socialist corruption of the Chavez years and since, has wrecked Venezuela's Golden Goose:
https://news.mongabay.com/2016/05/lake-maracaibo-oil-development-disaster-area-dying-neglect/
https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-corruption-oil-maduro-e4bb5d055f16eae94c9bcec6c7a6dbf5
Shadowy brokers walk off with billions in Venezuelan oil
"I believe that Venezuelan crude is difficult to refine, but cheap to uplift. "
This is true of the reserves in the Orinoco Basin...
https://www.cccarto.com/oil/venezuelaoil/#7/9.725/-65.874
But its completely possible, and Biden has enabled the crooks who peddle Venezuelan oil to sell alot of it into the US market.
Chances are, you have refined Orinoco oil in your gas tank right now.
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-easing-venezuela-oil-sanctions-response-election-deal-official-2023-10-18/
https://dialogochino.net/en/extractive-industries/59034-orinoco-belt-venezuela-oil-investment-in-biodiverse-region/
IIRC, Venezuela's crude is nasty low-quality stuff that requires extensive refinement.
Yes. So nasty you have to cut it with naphtha to pump it. Just one step removed from tar sands.
Our refineries have been fitted out to run heavy sour since the 1990's, because that was what conventional plays were increasingly becoming. Now we have lots of light sweet shale oil and either need to retool (several hundred billion dollars) or run a blend. This is why there was domestic demand for Keystone XL. But the Biden mis-Administation would rather import Urals (especially prior to the Ukraine war) and reward the Venezualan regime.
The SPR is important; however, along the ANWR there are hundreds of millions of barrels of extractable oil. There is also an untapped field west of Pruhdoe Bay that Kissinger took off the table in the early/mid 70’s when he wanted the Saudis to buy U.S. debt. It is not that we lack the resources, it is that those with their hands on the levers of government are beholden to environmental extremists. Please show me just one person who is against clean water, clean air, or is for pollution. That person only exists in the minds if the Left. Green is the new red and it has been for some time.
Just for clarification. The acreage set aside in ANWR is akin to tearing a dollar bill into 10,000 tiny pieces and the drillable area is equal to 1/10,000 of ANWR.
Frankly, I'm tired of being a taxpayer subsidizing the price of oil for our 'allies'. Our defense dollars save them something like $75 / bbl on average, it's our hardware being worn down, our people at risk.
I'd be happy with rebuilding our refinery capacity to allow using our oil, for our uses, let foreign oil be refined and used and mostly PAID FOR by the foreigners.
Except oil trades on prices set by a global market. The amount of change to the global economy, energy markets, and productive activity writ large required to achieve what you're describing is honestly beyond comprehension.
And those prices are based on, first of all, extraction, refining and transportation costs. Imagine that the spot price on the UAE Dubai Cycle bord went up by $75 tomorrow reflecting the actual costs of protecting it while it's being moved.
It would do great things to WTI and Brent prices. and maybe make the Arabs start paying up to defend it, and fix their long-term problems.
Sure, nice to imagine that but that's all it is; imagination. There's simply no way to do what you're advocating without basically redoing the entire global energy market & infra (we tried w/ Russia, has not worked).
Yes, exactly. An energy market the US taxpayer isn't subsidizing for the rest of the world.
You get it.
Huh? Don't see how you could be responding to me, but there's no one else in this thread so 🤷♂️
You admitted that US subsidies (by defending the oil in the gulf) is distorting the market.
The rest of the world benefits from that, the US far less so.
We (the US) should be pumping and refining oil domestically. The Canadians should be fracking oil and refining it in Canada (not shipping crude around the world). The Europeans, China, Japan, etc can benefit from the ME oil at the real price, and screw them. We have been protecting them since WWII. 100 years is enough
I was with a CARG a BLT, LPD/LSD no choppers, we went on alert in the 1973 war be ready to air transport to the arena, spent a month ashore in Vieques running infantry exercises and classes. Plan was roughly Chopper ride to nearest air strip that could handle C-130 or deploy to back to GITMO for any incursion there.
Today it's worse and scary We are in deep Kimchee here now.
The reason that we're no longer energy independent can be expressed on one word; "BIDEN". It's ENTIRELY the pResident's fault. Which means that it can be reversed. At least a few of the wells could be restarted, and rebuilding much of the fracking infrastructure could be rebuilt within a year. IF there was the political will to do so. Decline is a choice, and Biden chose to diminish the United States significantly. He should be arrested and charged with treason.
I'd say two words (Biden's Handlers) but largely concur
Agree here. Im loathe to sound like a tin foil hat guy- but the attacks on domestic oil, pushing the green agenda, not countering inflation, and many other examples all point towards a calculated destruction of the countrys economy. A struggling economy makes ppl more govt dependent. Add decades of (re)education in the public schools and colleges that produce generations willing to give up rights for govt-provided security. Then throw in a fresh bout of race and class warfare. Sprinkle in some things like transgenderism that makes even the most basic truths questionable, never mind actually important ideology, and you get a future that follows the socialist playbook pretty well...
Id like to think this isnt all calculated, and Id like to think the extremists arent smart enough to orchestrate this, but even if its all just coincidence and they bumbled their way here, its still happening and all this is painting a grim future...
*takes off tinfoil hat and quickly hides it in the closet
All the isolationist and energy independence types forget the impact of global events and markets on us even if we retreat into the impossible dream of a fortress America. Energy independence is a good/desirable thing but not an end all. We are island /maritime nation and if our trade partners' economies are impacted so is ours. In 2020, the United States ranked as the third largest global merchandise EXPORTER (yes we still make stuff). Total import/exports made up about 25% of our GDP in 2020. Think of the economic impact if that was lost.
How would this impact defense alliances? Would our allies put their own individual energy needs ahead of the collective?
I am a bit older than CDR Salamander and I remember the 73-74 oil embargo very well. It severely impacted alliances. I was in Germany at the time and Germany imposed things like no Sunday driving except for emergency vehicles. Germany would not allow us to fly equipment to Israel through/from Germany. Many of our allies stared calling for a more "even handed" policy toward the Arab states. IIRC only the Dutch really stood firm even when they where down to a 90 day supply of oil.
Oh, an informative, nuanced, take. MAGA no like shades of grey.
That's disingenuous, Tom. I think a policy of Making America Great Again is a very noble endeavor, and I also appreciate accuracy and inciteful reasoning.
The demonization of political opponents (with who most of us on this forum probably disagree at most 10-20% of policy) is an unfortunate tactic of our supposedly elite rulers and policy makers.
Agreed!! Im just old enough to remember when anyone whod announce they were a socialist would be shunned and/or treated like the village idiot. How we've gotten here is almost unbelievable. The fact that MAGA, in itself a concept that really shouldnt have anyone disagreeing with it, has been turned into a four letter word and somthing that demonizes a whole group of American well-wishers is absurd... The idea that wearing that positive slogan in public is now a likely precursor to having to exercise your 2nd Amendment rights shows how far off the rails things truly are...
Meanwhile in the not-large town in CT my mother lives in they had a big pro-HAMAS rally in the center of town last night. We are really off the rails
Personally, I think "deplorable" either had too many letters in it or the Latin plural imperative "deplorate!" was confusing to learned aristocracy for it to be sloganized. A four-letter word OTOH is easy and has endless possibilities.