Thank you for educating an old Airborne Ranger on the maritime challenges (and the unanticipated benefits of the Houti's "commerce raiding war" (which I think is an appropriate characterization, BTW). I have not been a fan of this Administration's tepid response, but I do appreciate your pointing out in earlier reports that these attacks have had the benefit of honing the USN's counter-missile TTPs. Reminds me of the under-appreciated benefits of the small wars we faced in the first part of the 20th & 21st centuries, which sharpened a peacetime military in preparation for larger-scale military operations that were (and are) looming on the horizon. Thanks again (is "Bravo Zulu" an appropriate comment here?). Keep up the Fire!
I've wondered for a while if the Houthi actions in the Red Sea are actually an Iranian op aimed at Egypt. The Egyptian government is almost solely dependent on Suez Canal revenue for foreign currency. The last estimates i have seen indicate that revenue is down almost 50%. If that continues, it has to threaten the stability of the existing military government and bring the Muslim Brotherhood or its successor back in play. And as to why the West ignores this, ask yourself what US administration supported the Muslim Brotherhood it its attempt to take over Egypt and recognize that most of the same players are in the foreign policy swamp of the current administration. Yeah, it is a conspiracy theory but...
Liking your comment, but the reality of our elitist global system is that any of those actions undertaken in the absence of a specific United Nations Resolution authorizing them will be considered a war crime by the International Criminal Court.
For the record, we are not party to the treaty that established the ICC. Clinton signed it but never submitted the treaty to the Senate. Bush 2 revoked our signature
Agreed. Doesn't mean the ICC can't make things difficult. Russia, China, and Iran haven't signed either. Hasn't stopped the ICC from issuing arrest warrants for those who haven't adopted.
Hence the "Invade the Hague Act" passed under Bush Jr.
(I forget the formal name offhand, but basically "you take our servicepeople or other Important(tm) types, and your burrocrats [sic] in Brussels get to taste boot polish on US troop footwear, inserted rectally with great force".)
Note that the law, AFAIK, hasn't been rescinded, through several administrations of different political parties.
I'm all for it but the progos (progressive globalists) will claim that the people are not the enemy.
To which I say it sucks to be a hostage to anyone - especially a group of uncivilized goatherds with access to 21st century resources. But, under the Geneva accords, if noncombatants are taken as hostage, the folks who took them are the responsible ones for taking care of them and protecting them.
Of course, the goatherds do not give a damn. That rule limits the western, civilized world: Not their abomination of a hacked together religious framework for a totalitarian government.
I've got to wonder, what's the intel source giving them tracking information?
At this point, the Houthis have been an issue for almost 15 years. The development of attacks on commercial shipping are a massive change. What organization and what equipment have been providing them the information to make these attacks? Can the US and allied nations conduct an operation to reduce the support?
AIS. Global vessel tracking via the internet. Merchant traffic continues on the Red Sea-Suez route, most often without turning off AIS. An interesting analysis would be which vessels were transmitting on AIS immediately prior to being targeted.
Piracy = profit, usually by seizing ships and cargo and selling them. Here the Houthi are merely destroying shipping, right? You are saying the Houthis are getting compensated for China/Russia who are getting a big trade advantage by being able to use the passage, while their competitors can't.
What then, should we bar the passage to all shipping to remove the root financial incentive?
"That’s above your pay grade" is I believe the response you'll get if you ask why we're not properly dealing with the Houthis. 5D Middle East chess, if they were honest. (And some people on the Houthis sponsor's payroll.)
Simple answer: The puppet leaders and defense ministers of western countries are effeminate globalists or actual women, with two exceptions, one of whom is senile and the other of whom wore a plastic face shield while representing his country.
Iran's use of the Houthi is part of a long struggle--since at least the Iran-Iraq War--between Gulf Arab states seeking to diversify oil export routes away from the vulnerable Strait of Hormuz to the more distant Red Sea and Iran's objective to threaten that export.
Iran has followed the oil to the Red Sea. And "resisting" Israel is a convenient smoke screen to obscure that oil interdiction strategy via Iran's Houthi proxy.
And yet the United States engages in Resolve Theater rather than securing sea lines of supply. FFS.
Funny thing Yemen has in common with Jordan and Lebanon. They accepted the PLO and all had violence ensue. Only Tunisia seems to escaped death and destruction.
Why there is no will in DC to really stop the Houthi attacks? Do otherwise knowledgeable Americans really wonder why Biden and the democrats have no stomach for stopping the Houthis?
The core of the current democrat party traces its' roots to the Vietnam anti-war movement and their offspring. They want no military action under any circumstances. If they could say it out loud they would defund the military. Most of us that support the military realize the president is really the people in charge of the teleprompter. What deals with the core were made by the basement dwelling candidate for the presidency we will probably never know. And the same core removed Biden and nominated Harris without any vote of the people in their party. So much for democracy.
The Israelis did more in two attacks on the Houthis than a billion in American missiles while risking the lives of thousands of Americans.
The military officers serving in the current administration are not the officers I knew in my youth, nor the officers my father or grandfather knew. They are woke, DEI, yes men who would abandon their troops for a promotion. What their loyalty to America is, I can only guess. They have no honor.
If I insulted anybody reading this, I would be happy to give satisfaction.
"Why the lack of will?" I have been told by our political masters, that the American people are "war weary" and that there will be no "boots" on the ground! (Even though we have troops in Iraq and Syria.) Additionally, these same individuals believe that all conflicts can be won with drones and special forces. Just the rambling thoughts of an old hermit. (One additional comment, I am damn proud of the men and women on-board our DDGs! Go Navy)
Totalitarian political systems, even ones dressed as a religion like mohamedism, need boogeymen to explain their multitude of failures.
Doc, I enjoyed reading your daily posts on the Instapundit threads! Cheers from an old Airborne Ranger!
Thanks!
Thank you for educating an old Airborne Ranger on the maritime challenges (and the unanticipated benefits of the Houti's "commerce raiding war" (which I think is an appropriate characterization, BTW). I have not been a fan of this Administration's tepid response, but I do appreciate your pointing out in earlier reports that these attacks have had the benefit of honing the USN's counter-missile TTPs. Reminds me of the under-appreciated benefits of the small wars we faced in the first part of the 20th & 21st centuries, which sharpened a peacetime military in preparation for larger-scale military operations that were (and are) looming on the horizon. Thanks again (is "Bravo Zulu" an appropriate comment here?). Keep up the Fire!
I've wondered for a while if the Houthi actions in the Red Sea are actually an Iranian op aimed at Egypt. The Egyptian government is almost solely dependent on Suez Canal revenue for foreign currency. The last estimates i have seen indicate that revenue is down almost 50%. If that continues, it has to threaten the stability of the existing military government and bring the Muslim Brotherhood or its successor back in play. And as to why the West ignores this, ask yourself what US administration supported the Muslim Brotherhood it its attempt to take over Egypt and recognize that most of the same players are in the foreign policy swamp of the current administration. Yeah, it is a conspiracy theory but...
John, great point. You folks are expanding this knuckledragger's perspective on the maritime warfare in the Gulf and Red Sea AOs.
Way back in the Cold War there were two Yemens, one pro Soviet. Egypt cruised down to interfere….. iirc it didn’t go well
"It's a conspiracy theory"
As Brock Sampson learned, "The minute God crapped out the third caveman a conspiracy was hatched against one of 'em."
Yerp and throwing a female in the mix just made things very complicated LOL
How about a quarantine?
No ships in and out of Yemen as long as the attacks continue?
Sink Yemeni fishing boats?
Cut them off from the international banking system?
Cut their internet?
Bomb the power plants?
Liking your comment, but the reality of our elitist global system is that any of those actions undertaken in the absence of a specific United Nations Resolution authorizing them will be considered a war crime by the International Criminal Court.
Did the UN approve our sanctions on Russia, Iran an North Korea?
Did they approve our bombing Yemen? If we can't quarantine the country, but can bomb it, then let's just mine the harbors.
Also, it's not pretty, but let's save all those expensive missiles and use BUFFS with 500 pound gps
The UN did approve the Korean war...
only because the Russians boycotted the SC
And they've never made that mistake again.
ARCLIGHT strikes, never know you are there till the earth erupts around you for a two mile by one mile box of death.
I like your idea!
For the record, we are not party to the treaty that established the ICC. Clinton signed it but never submitted the treaty to the Senate. Bush 2 revoked our signature
Agreed. Doesn't mean the ICC can't make things difficult. Russia, China, and Iran haven't signed either. Hasn't stopped the ICC from issuing arrest warrants for those who haven't adopted.
A cell of B52s can make things difficult for the ICC, as well. They are not a state, so destroying them is not an act of war.
Hence the "Invade the Hague Act" passed under Bush Jr.
(I forget the formal name offhand, but basically "you take our servicepeople or other Important(tm) types, and your burrocrats [sic] in Brussels get to taste boot polish on US troop footwear, inserted rectally with great force".)
Note that the law, AFAIK, hasn't been rescinded, through several administrations of different political parties.
Under the right President, America can make life unbearable for the ICC.
A noble endeavor.
I also agree.
I'm all for it but the progos (progressive globalists) will claim that the people are not the enemy.
To which I say it sucks to be a hostage to anyone - especially a group of uncivilized goatherds with access to 21st century resources. But, under the Geneva accords, if noncombatants are taken as hostage, the folks who took them are the responsible ones for taking care of them and protecting them.
Of course, the goatherds do not give a damn. That rule limits the western, civilized world: Not their abomination of a hacked together religious framework for a totalitarian government.
We too often bind ourselves to the Queensbury Rules, while our enemies only rule is to win.
The first thing to do, to paraphrase Shakespeare, is to get rid of all the lawyers involved in determining ROEs
I agree.
I've got to wonder, what's the intel source giving them tracking information?
At this point, the Houthis have been an issue for almost 15 years. The development of attacks on commercial shipping are a massive change. What organization and what equipment have been providing them the information to make these attacks? Can the US and allied nations conduct an operation to reduce the support?
AIS. Global vessel tracking via the internet. Merchant traffic continues on the Red Sea-Suez route, most often without turning off AIS. An interesting analysis would be which vessels were transmitting on AIS immediately prior to being targeted.
Transmitting AIS in the Red Sea X like putting a Kick Me sign on your ship.
Well, there are those Iranian vessels that kind of hang around near Yemen. But I’m sure they would never be providing anything to the Houthi’s.
Piracy = profit, usually by seizing ships and cargo and selling them. Here the Houthi are merely destroying shipping, right? You are saying the Houthis are getting compensated for China/Russia who are getting a big trade advantage by being able to use the passage, while their competitors can't.
What then, should we bar the passage to all shipping to remove the root financial incentive?
Turnabout is fair play (&c).
"That’s above your pay grade" is I believe the response you'll get if you ask why we're not properly dealing with the Houthis. 5D Middle East chess, if they were honest. (And some people on the Houthis sponsor's payroll.)
Simple answer: The puppet leaders and defense ministers of western countries are effeminate globalists or actual women, with two exceptions, one of whom is senile and the other of whom wore a plastic face shield while representing his country.
The United States should be ready to provide 1.4% of the effort to address this 'global threat' in the Red Sea.
We are broke. We are overrun with illegals. What DOD we NEED in today's world we NEED on our borders.
I'd ask how much of the cargo was intended for us, or from us. which may be a higher percentage, but a valid point.
Waiting for the US answer to this one:
"Why the lack of will? Well, that is the even more uncomfortable question."
Indeed, Israel is just a convenient excuse.
Iran's use of the Houthi is part of a long struggle--since at least the Iran-Iraq War--between Gulf Arab states seeking to diversify oil export routes away from the vulnerable Strait of Hormuz to the more distant Red Sea and Iran's objective to threaten that export.
Iran has followed the oil to the Red Sea. And "resisting" Israel is a convenient smoke screen to obscure that oil interdiction strategy via Iran's Houthi proxy.
And yet the United States engages in Resolve Theater rather than securing sea lines of supply. FFS.
Funny thing Yemen has in common with Jordan and Lebanon. They accepted the PLO and all had violence ensue. Only Tunisia seems to escaped death and destruction.
But? Why the lack of will?
Perhaps this road also leads back to the NSA.
Lack of will: the Biden Admin wanted to avoid Iranian casualties.
Everyone else dying: OK.
I suspect there are people in this administration who are sympathetic to Iran and its proxies. Hopefully, they will all soon be gone.
Yemen DGAF about Palestine: This is what I've been saying.
The Yemeni DGAF about other Yemeni. Anyone that says otherwise hasn't been to Yemen.
Why there is no will in DC to really stop the Houthi attacks? Do otherwise knowledgeable Americans really wonder why Biden and the democrats have no stomach for stopping the Houthis?
The core of the current democrat party traces its' roots to the Vietnam anti-war movement and their offspring. They want no military action under any circumstances. If they could say it out loud they would defund the military. Most of us that support the military realize the president is really the people in charge of the teleprompter. What deals with the core were made by the basement dwelling candidate for the presidency we will probably never know. And the same core removed Biden and nominated Harris without any vote of the people in their party. So much for democracy.
The Israelis did more in two attacks on the Houthis than a billion in American missiles while risking the lives of thousands of Americans.
The military officers serving in the current administration are not the officers I knew in my youth, nor the officers my father or grandfather knew. They are woke, DEI, yes men who would abandon their troops for a promotion. What their loyalty to America is, I can only guess. They have no honor.
If I insulted anybody reading this, I would be happy to give satisfaction.
I would be honored to be your second, sir.
"Why the lack of will?" I have been told by our political masters, that the American people are "war weary" and that there will be no "boots" on the ground! (Even though we have troops in Iraq and Syria.) Additionally, these same individuals believe that all conflicts can be won with drones and special forces. Just the rambling thoughts of an old hermit. (One additional comment, I am damn proud of the men and women on-board our DDGs! Go Navy)