I agree with nearly all you wrote, only extra thing I'll add is that I listened to M Kofman on the War on The Rocks podcast where he outlined that only a fraction of RU mil combat power had been committed, no air force so far, so the UKR are only resisting initial probing attacks. Anecdotes of failures are being portrayed in media as widespread issues when untrue. RU mil not following doctrine of arty/fires etc
In you opinion, do those nicely drawn red areas on the maps represent areas of Russian control or do they just represent the invasion routes and lines of communication currently used by the Russians?
Thanks, most refreshing to see a military man look at this situation and size it up. It seems to me there are two principal strategic objectives: cut off Ukrainian Army elements in Donbas (their crack troops) from retreat to Kiev, and, subject Kiev and other major cities to siege warfare.
Note, Ukrainian air is non-existent since D-1. Lights are on in Kiev and, apparently, all the major Ukrainian cities. Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant was secured on D-1 (most of Crimea gets water from the reservoir, which is not deep because the dam is run-of-river type). Mariupol, steel center, is secured. Ukraine forces there were the genuine Nazi types, horrible soldiers, covered in tats, basically MS-13, Einsatzgruppen types.
Russians don't want to destroy Ukraine. They want to use Ukraine as a buffer against the Franco-Germans, who have a long history of marching east. Note, Germany announces rearmament . . . snarky remark stifled.
Arming Ukrainian civilians was a horribly cynical move, to get them killed so they would make good propaganda pictures. Hamas does this, also ANTIFA, BLM, and drug dealers. The same Euro-American Fascist element controlling Ukraine through Zelensky . . . and getting a foretaste of their just desserts there.
FWIW, the electronics of this campaign intrigue me. I think we have entered a new era of war fighting, comparable in scale and consequence to the US Civil War Between The States doing the same. This one will be studied carefully for clues as to battle-space viability. I think it shows that viability continuing on the trajectory of small, fast, decentralized, and simple.
The IO is so massive as to nearly subdue one's patience. It's order of battle on the ground, of course, that is the real weapon. Soros used the Zelensky cohort to run IO storms against POTUS Trump.
Heavy armor is out (Javelines, which can also hit choppers). Choppers are out (MANPADS). Complex signaling is out. Capital ships are out. Air superiority fighters and possibly bombers are out. Light, very fast and no armor is in (battle-space Ferraris, but not bespoke). Cyber is in . . . until units and equipment get so simple cyber cannot reach them, or can reach them only marginally. Simplifying signally is in, will take some creative thinking. Expect paper and boots on clutches and accelerators to play a part. Massed small air transport and ground support are in, including drones. Massed under-, on-, and over-water drones, along with massed destroyers, frigates, and fast attack-and-run boats are in.
No nuclear-fired propulsion. Shoot, I can see the day when wind-propulsion of wooden ships have a role in US Navy and Marine operations. To escape or at least mitigate the ubiquitous fires by cyber. Cyber is long-range arty, very hot and very effective.
Carriers are huge nuclear and thermobaric bombs waiting for someone to ride in on a piggybacked radio wave, and blow the monster up. No ports will want that danger. US Army has not fielded a MANPAD for ten or twenty years. Javelines and MANADS CIA gave Ukraine are 30 years old. But they work if they have batteries and skilled hands to operate them. Russians and Chinese have made two or three new generations of anti-armor and anti-air weaponry over those 30 years. Main battle tanks, self-propelled fires, and APCs are battlefield waste waiting to happen. Ditto choppers. And ditto capital ships.
These are points of an AAR I at least would offer in the the wake of this action in Ukraine. I think the Russians have gone very easy on the Ukrainians, so far. They could have leveled the country the way Obama leveled the ancient, beautiful section of Mosul at the end of his rule. They do not want to rule the country -- what would be the point of that masochism? -- just have it neutral as between NATO (WEF, Franco-Germany) and Russia. It's all very simple. The Davoisie must be kicked out of the house.
Pretty dark Sal. I think we could, with all the players helping as they have been in the last week at least, break the Russian economy in a year or two and create the conditions for a change of government by the Russians themselves. Only China can keep the regime running, if they choose to do so, and that would be a drain. We need to do all we can do break our addiction to (still relatively) cheap Chinese goods and hold them accountable for the many illegal things they do.
Closest thing to level analysis I have seen. But people are still refusing to acknowledge that Zelensky had at least 2 weeks of notice and refused evacuate civilians and refused to mobilize the country. And now most of Ukraines best forces are stuck in a Russian cauldron in eastern ukraine.
War on the Rocks, bless their enthusiastic hard work, seems to have no idea what the real strength of RFA was before Ukraine - weak, and now its weaker still. Bulk of the fighting is being done by Donbass troops and Wagner; Donbass doesn't went to fight anymore. As for Wagner, there are always testosterone-hyped young men to volunteer. Ukraine has doubled the number of brigades from 20 to 50, and overall from 200,000 men to 500,000. You are right, RFA have made net gains on Eastern front, if you use a kilometer grid and think of a fotograph in time. But they also keep losing ground in the East, which they recover and lose again, and are losing ground in the South. Agreed it will be a long fight. But look, Ukraine is causing Russia incredible grief in Crimea, which I certainly did not expect. The area in a state of war has increased, not to Russia's advantage. NATO knew as far back as the early 1980s (if not earlier) that RFA (then the USSR) was in terrible shape. It couldn't say so because US was trying to keep NATO on task. Also, the endemic problems of USSR forces COULD, in theory, be remedied in 2-years. Russia has degenerated well below Soviet standards - which were never high to begin with.
But - in line with Cdr. Salamander warnings not to get complacent, NATO could at any time go so wobbly it cant get out of its chair, and with the US, you just never know when the ADD hits and we go on to something else. There is a strong element in US decision-making circles that (incredibly) Ukraine should give land for peace. It is a minority, but its there. Things within US can change overnight.
BTW, we often talk about RFA's inability to fill its ranks. But what about us? With a population of 330-million we cant get up even to a 500,000 person army.
That map was as of March, 2022. Didn't they have anything more current and accurate? Surely the situation has changed in the year+ since the map. I am pretty sure the Russians are no longer on the outskirts of Kiev.
I agree with nearly all you wrote, only extra thing I'll add is that I listened to M Kofman on the War on The Rocks podcast where he outlined that only a fraction of RU mil combat power had been committed, no air force so far, so the UKR are only resisting initial probing attacks. Anecdotes of failures are being portrayed in media as widespread issues when untrue. RU mil not following doctrine of arty/fires etc
Test
In you opinion, do those nicely drawn red areas on the maps represent areas of Russian control or do they just represent the invasion routes and lines of communication currently used by the Russians?
Best objective analysis I've read to date
St. Michael, pray for Ukraine and us.
Great Analysis
Thanks, most refreshing to see a military man look at this situation and size it up. It seems to me there are two principal strategic objectives: cut off Ukrainian Army elements in Donbas (their crack troops) from retreat to Kiev, and, subject Kiev and other major cities to siege warfare.
Note, Ukrainian air is non-existent since D-1. Lights are on in Kiev and, apparently, all the major Ukrainian cities. Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant was secured on D-1 (most of Crimea gets water from the reservoir, which is not deep because the dam is run-of-river type). Mariupol, steel center, is secured. Ukraine forces there were the genuine Nazi types, horrible soldiers, covered in tats, basically MS-13, Einsatzgruppen types.
Russians don't want to destroy Ukraine. They want to use Ukraine as a buffer against the Franco-Germans, who have a long history of marching east. Note, Germany announces rearmament . . . snarky remark stifled.
Arming Ukrainian civilians was a horribly cynical move, to get them killed so they would make good propaganda pictures. Hamas does this, also ANTIFA, BLM, and drug dealers. The same Euro-American Fascist element controlling Ukraine through Zelensky . . . and getting a foretaste of their just desserts there.
FWIW, the electronics of this campaign intrigue me. I think we have entered a new era of war fighting, comparable in scale and consequence to the US Civil War Between The States doing the same. This one will be studied carefully for clues as to battle-space viability. I think it shows that viability continuing on the trajectory of small, fast, decentralized, and simple.
The IO is so massive as to nearly subdue one's patience. It's order of battle on the ground, of course, that is the real weapon. Soros used the Zelensky cohort to run IO storms against POTUS Trump.
Heavy armor is out (Javelines, which can also hit choppers). Choppers are out (MANPADS). Complex signaling is out. Capital ships are out. Air superiority fighters and possibly bombers are out. Light, very fast and no armor is in (battle-space Ferraris, but not bespoke). Cyber is in . . . until units and equipment get so simple cyber cannot reach them, or can reach them only marginally. Simplifying signally is in, will take some creative thinking. Expect paper and boots on clutches and accelerators to play a part. Massed small air transport and ground support are in, including drones. Massed under-, on-, and over-water drones, along with massed destroyers, frigates, and fast attack-and-run boats are in.
No nuclear-fired propulsion. Shoot, I can see the day when wind-propulsion of wooden ships have a role in US Navy and Marine operations. To escape or at least mitigate the ubiquitous fires by cyber. Cyber is long-range arty, very hot and very effective.
Carriers are huge nuclear and thermobaric bombs waiting for someone to ride in on a piggybacked radio wave, and blow the monster up. No ports will want that danger. US Army has not fielded a MANPAD for ten or twenty years. Javelines and MANADS CIA gave Ukraine are 30 years old. But they work if they have batteries and skilled hands to operate them. Russians and Chinese have made two or three new generations of anti-armor and anti-air weaponry over those 30 years. Main battle tanks, self-propelled fires, and APCs are battlefield waste waiting to happen. Ditto choppers. And ditto capital ships.
These are points of an AAR I at least would offer in the the wake of this action in Ukraine. I think the Russians have gone very easy on the Ukrainians, so far. They could have leveled the country the way Obama leveled the ancient, beautiful section of Mosul at the end of his rule. They do not want to rule the country -- what would be the point of that masochism? -- just have it neutral as between NATO (WEF, Franco-Germany) and Russia. It's all very simple. The Davoisie must be kicked out of the house.
Pretty dark Sal. I think we could, with all the players helping as they have been in the last week at least, break the Russian economy in a year or two and create the conditions for a change of government by the Russians themselves. Only China can keep the regime running, if they choose to do so, and that would be a drain. We need to do all we can do break our addiction to (still relatively) cheap Chinese goods and hold them accountable for the many illegal things they do.
Closest thing to level analysis I have seen. But people are still refusing to acknowledge that Zelensky had at least 2 weeks of notice and refused evacuate civilians and refused to mobilize the country. And now most of Ukraines best forces are stuck in a Russian cauldron in eastern ukraine.
War on the Rocks, bless their enthusiastic hard work, seems to have no idea what the real strength of RFA was before Ukraine - weak, and now its weaker still. Bulk of the fighting is being done by Donbass troops and Wagner; Donbass doesn't went to fight anymore. As for Wagner, there are always testosterone-hyped young men to volunteer. Ukraine has doubled the number of brigades from 20 to 50, and overall from 200,000 men to 500,000. You are right, RFA have made net gains on Eastern front, if you use a kilometer grid and think of a fotograph in time. But they also keep losing ground in the East, which they recover and lose again, and are losing ground in the South. Agreed it will be a long fight. But look, Ukraine is causing Russia incredible grief in Crimea, which I certainly did not expect. The area in a state of war has increased, not to Russia's advantage. NATO knew as far back as the early 1980s (if not earlier) that RFA (then the USSR) was in terrible shape. It couldn't say so because US was trying to keep NATO on task. Also, the endemic problems of USSR forces COULD, in theory, be remedied in 2-years. Russia has degenerated well below Soviet standards - which were never high to begin with.
But - in line with Cdr. Salamander warnings not to get complacent, NATO could at any time go so wobbly it cant get out of its chair, and with the US, you just never know when the ADD hits and we go on to something else. There is a strong element in US decision-making circles that (incredibly) Ukraine should give land for peace. It is a minority, but its there. Things within US can change overnight.
BTW, we often talk about RFA's inability to fill its ranks. But what about us? With a population of 330-million we cant get up even to a 500,000 person army.
So there are no answers to the Ru model of mass formations and highly inefficient logistical support located beyond the reach of PGMs?
That map was as of March, 2022. Didn't they have anything more current and accurate? Surely the situation has changed in the year+ since the map. I am pretty sure the Russians are no longer on the outskirts of Kiev.