"To meet #2, she has to leverage every competitive advantage she has to generate income and support well paying jobs. She will be selling her weapons to whoever has the hard cash to buy them."
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If Ukraine doesn't, somebody else will. The Iranians are past masters of drone design.
No, the Iranians are—like the Chinese—good at copying other people’s hard work. The Shahed drone is just a copy of and Israeli drone that itself came from a German-American design from the 1980s…as I wrote about here earlier this month.
Unacceptable losses. USA have massive nuclear advantage over USSR in 1950s, but even a few nuclear bombs dropped on American major cities would cause so much destruction and losses, that any possible victory would be Pyrric one. And even not counting that, the result of large-scale nuclear warfare would be so economically disruptive, that "victor" would be struggling for decades just trying to return to pre-war level.
Ah, I had in mind 1945's actions in Hiroshima and Nagasaki vs. "Operation Olympic" (invasion of Japan's Kyushu Island) as explored in David Westheimer's counterfactual "Death as Light as a Feather." My mistake.
"Oh, and props for "3. Make babies" Nice to see some demographic understanding filtering in around here, however slowly and tentatively."
It's kinda pointless, since no one could suggest any practical solution. Humans aren't fast-breeding species; our biology is to have a small number of babies and care about them. Humanity twised the biology with sociology for millenias, but there are only so far as you could go. The massive population increase in late XIX-early XX centuries was caused by transition from agrarian to industrial society; it was not sustainable outside of such transition.
Agrarian societies need a lot of workers. Industrial societies need much less.
You will find that as industrialization increases, so does wealth, and as wealth increases so fertility rates become lower. It's a trend that has been clear worldwide for a century or so.
I fear that by the time the "people" recognize and accept the danger/threat, it will be long past the point of no return. South Korea (0.76) and Hong Kong (0.75) may be the first canaries in this coal mine. Taiwan (0.86) and Ukraine (1.00) are right behind [Russia is ~1.42). Many African countries are 4.xx+, as is Afghanistan. Not a good omen for Western Civilization. 2.1 births/woman is the generally recognized fertility rate for a stable population. This metric is known as the total fertility rate (TFR).
Back in the late 1980s, I worked several programs under the aegis of PMA-201, the Conventional Air-Launched Ordnance program office (colloquially referred to as "bombs and bullets").
One of them was designated with the bland nomenclature IAM ("Inertially-Aided Munition"). This was an inertial platform--later augmented with GPS--and a set of movable fins, to be installed on a Mk-82 500-lb "dumb bomb." There were two versions: one for a standard bomb and one for the Snakeye (IYKYK).
During OPEVAL, these demonstrated a reduction in CEP (Circular Error Probable) from 30 meters to 3 meters. This was absolutely astonishing at the time. The IAM cost about $10-15k, which seemed like a low number for someone like me, who was used to paying six figures for a single guided missile, but it was still an expensive upgrade considering that it was around 10X the cost of a Mk-82.
"V-1 cruise missile". Just my 2 cents..."cruise missile" didn't legitimately cement itself into the lexicon until 1967, Styx missile v. INS Eilat. My own preference is to call it the "V-1 Buzz Bomb".
given the time to develop and field new the new missiles described.... a more delicious use perhaps might be to launch them, not from the TEL system....but from the hold of a freighter that has sailed out of the Black Sea, out of the Mediterranean....up to the Gulf of Finland.....
B-29 was usable over Japan because Iwo Jima saved crews and airplanes which broke down on the way to and from the Islands. Firebombs, they were uniquely fuse made up for accuracy and limited blast.
Accuracy iis no big thing if you don’t have blast, or fire.
The bitter calculus of war. The number of aircrew saved by Iwo Jima being there as a divert is almost the same as the number of casualties killed taking it - around 6900.
The calculus would shift more in favor of taking Iwo Jima the longer the war went. Had the war lasted until the planned date for Coronet, it would be looking much better.
Somebody on another site suggested designating a representative Iranian city, issuing advance warning, then turning the (vacated) place into rubble. Repeat as necessary to get the point(s) across: our capability and willingness to employ mass destruction as well as to foment social chaos and revolution, I'm guessing. Seems a bit more to the point than taking out the ground under the foundations of the long-gone radar dishes for the seventh or eighth time...
Did Ukraine have missiles capable of reaching the Russian heartland?
If so, what happened to them?
And of course we shouldn't mention the fact that the pro Russian government was installed with more than a bit of canoodling by the Russians themselves.
Nor the Budapest Memorandum. Looks like it might have been better to have stayed out of that and let the Ukies have their nukes.
"Expunge the culture of corruption."
With all respect, but you could also set the goal of "making Pi number exactly 3". Nearly as realistic)
As if ATACMS or PrM are any better than V-1
Much better targeting, yes?
Yes. Tonnage has quality too. We are not talking big blast.
"To meet #2, she has to leverage every competitive advantage she has to generate income and support well paying jobs. She will be selling her weapons to whoever has the hard cash to buy them."
------------------------------------------------
If Ukraine doesn't, somebody else will. The Iranians are past masters of drone design.
No, the Iranians are—like the Chinese—good at copying other people’s hard work. The Shahed drone is just a copy of and Israeli drone that itself came from a German-American design from the 1980s…as I wrote about here earlier this month.
I heard somewhere they're pretty handy at cobbling together IEDs, as and where needed.
"With the atomic bomb, accuracy was not important…but if you go nuclear, even if you win, you lose."
Huh?
Oh, and props for "3. Make babies" Nice to see some demographic understanding filtering in around here, however slowly and tentatively.
Unacceptable losses. USA have massive nuclear advantage over USSR in 1950s, but even a few nuclear bombs dropped on American major cities would cause so much destruction and losses, that any possible victory would be Pyrric one. And even not counting that, the result of large-scale nuclear warfare would be so economically disruptive, that "victor" would be struggling for decades just trying to return to pre-war level.
Ah, I had in mind 1945's actions in Hiroshima and Nagasaki vs. "Operation Olympic" (invasion of Japan's Kyushu Island) as explored in David Westheimer's counterfactual "Death as Light as a Feather." My mistake.
"Oh, and props for "3. Make babies" Nice to see some demographic understanding filtering in around here, however slowly and tentatively."
It's kinda pointless, since no one could suggest any practical solution. Humans aren't fast-breeding species; our biology is to have a small number of babies and care about them. Humanity twised the biology with sociology for millenias, but there are only so far as you could go. The massive population increase in late XIX-early XX centuries was caused by transition from agrarian to industrial society; it was not sustainable outside of such transition.
Actually the reverse is true.
Agrarian societies need a lot of workers. Industrial societies need much less.
You will find that as industrialization increases, so does wealth, and as wealth increases so fertility rates become lower. It's a trend that has been clear worldwide for a century or so.
I’ve been bringing up the demographic problem for over two decades
Less bad for Ukraine than Russia (as i think you have mentioned)
Decimal point difference...
Plus Ukraine had massive out migration even before the war.
As if Russia hasn't. And it's more unlikely the Russians will return.
The only advantage I see for Russia is that they will likely be a poorer country and their fertility rate might increase.
Ukraine and Iran have been more effective.
I fear that by the time the "people" recognize and accept the danger/threat, it will be long past the point of no return. South Korea (0.76) and Hong Kong (0.75) may be the first canaries in this coal mine. Taiwan (0.86) and Ukraine (1.00) are right behind [Russia is ~1.42). Many African countries are 4.xx+, as is Afghanistan. Not a good omen for Western Civilization. 2.1 births/woman is the generally recognized fertility rate for a stable population. This metric is known as the total fertility rate (TFR).
Mark Steyn "America Alone: The End of the World as We Know It."
Published 2006 (Sal's "two decades")
Pith: "The future belongs to those who show up."
Back in the late 1980s, I worked several programs under the aegis of PMA-201, the Conventional Air-Launched Ordnance program office (colloquially referred to as "bombs and bullets").
One of them was designated with the bland nomenclature IAM ("Inertially-Aided Munition"). This was an inertial platform--later augmented with GPS--and a set of movable fins, to be installed on a Mk-82 500-lb "dumb bomb." There were two versions: one for a standard bomb and one for the Snakeye (IYKYK).
During OPEVAL, these demonstrated a reduction in CEP (Circular Error Probable) from 30 meters to 3 meters. This was absolutely astonishing at the time. The IAM cost about $10-15k, which seemed like a low number for someone like me, who was used to paying six figures for a single guided missile, but it was still an expensive upgrade considering that it was around 10X the cost of a Mk-82.
I imagine we've gotten better.
"V-1 cruise missile". Just my 2 cents..."cruise missile" didn't legitimately cement itself into the lexicon until 1967, Styx missile v. INS Eilat. My own preference is to call it the "V-1 Buzz Bomb".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_i5Vq3wYPXU
https://www.warhistoryonline.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/64/2023/02/gettyimages-946092722-95644-741x439.jpg
I was shocked to realize that the FP-5 cruise missile looks just like a V-1, though larger and significantly more capable.
Kind of dovetails with Ukraine's fondness for old time German militaria and ideals. Might be a Banderite thing.
Love it. The Ukrainians are using drones for SEAD now...Weasel drones.
YGBSM
I like the color choices.
given the time to develop and field new the new missiles described.... a more delicious use perhaps might be to launch them, not from the TEL system....but from the hold of a freighter that has sailed out of the Black Sea, out of the Mediterranean....up to the Gulf of Finland.....
B-29 was usable over Japan because Iwo Jima saved crews and airplanes which broke down on the way to and from the Islands. Firebombs, they were uniquely fuse made up for accuracy and limited blast.
Accuracy iis no big thing if you don’t have blast, or fire.
The bitter calculus of war. The number of aircrew saved by Iwo Jima being there as a divert is almost the same as the number of casualties killed taking it - around 6900.
The calculus would shift more in favor of taking Iwo Jima the longer the war went. Had the war lasted until the planned date for Coronet, it would be looking much better.
I remember when the Thanh Hoa bridge was felled by LGB's...
Thought then that it would be a big deal.
https://airpower.airforce.gov.au/publications/dragons-jaw-vietnam-war-target-paved-way-modern-precision-air-weapon
Dragons Jaw - The Vietnam War Target the Paved the Way to a Modern Precision Air Weapon
Somebody on another site suggested designating a representative Iranian city, issuing advance warning, then turning the (vacated) place into rubble. Repeat as necessary to get the point(s) across: our capability and willingness to employ mass destruction as well as to foment social chaos and revolution, I'm guessing. Seems a bit more to the point than taking out the ground under the foundations of the long-gone radar dishes for the seventh or eighth time...
Good idea. Start with Qom. Then Tehran. Then Isfahan
Good idea in principal.
Though, I'm not sure telegraphing the attack is such a good idea.
Nor am I convinced that we have the ordnance to actually destroy a large metro area in the detail you are imagining.
Isn't that MOAB gizmo one of ours? Surely we'd've heard something if we'd run out of them, no?
The advance notice is to beat the rap for "Crimes against Humanity" or whatever they're calling it these days at the ICC.
Huh. Well, I don't think it's been tested on urban targets. Maybe it ought to be.
Re rebuilding their economy: With the east reportedly devastated the challenge will be to rebuild with what? Western Ukraine is largely agricultural.
1. Expunge the culture of corruption.
2. Rebuild her economy.
3. Make babies.
Good plan for the U.S as well.
The more capable Ukraine becomes with missiles the less likely Russia will agree to peace.
One of the many reasons Russia launched this war was to prevent having a nation on its borders with missiles capable of reaching its heartland.
I can only imagine how we would feel if Canada or Mexico were armed to the teeth with missiles and closely allied to China. Cuba 1962?
We went back on our promise not to expand NATO and we took part in the overthrow of a pro Russia government in Ukraine.
This war will not end anytime soon if we continue on the current path.
Did Ukraine have missiles capable of reaching the Russian heartland?
If so, what happened to them?
And of course we shouldn't mention the fact that the pro Russian government was installed with more than a bit of canoodling by the Russians themselves.
Nor the Budapest Memorandum. Looks like it might have been better to have stayed out of that and let the Ukies have their nukes.
I can’t imagine the grinder the demographic of fighting men have gone through- the generation of baby makers that have been eliminated.
I loathe Putin for the deaths he’s caused, including his own men.
Let’s hope it ends soon. I have little faith it will.
Eastern Germany in the last months of World War 2. Lotsa dead guys, also lotsa Russian-looking babies some time later.
Your hate is misdirected. Blame the people who urged Ukraine into this folly.
The folly of defending themselves?
The folly of daring to say that they would prefer to not be dominated by based and trad Vlad.
Is this why Russia doesn't want NATO on their border? Seems reasonable.