As someone who was involved in ASEAN politics in my former life, my view of the matter is that the Philippines are gonna continue to play both side and tries it best to appease both world powers. There is no incentive for Philippines to go with either. If they allied with China, the US will sanctions them to literal economic stability. If they allied with the USA, they will suffers from extreme border incursions and risks getting into a conflict that will likely cost Philippines its current economic future and possible freedom.
By no means that I mean the Administration is not doing enough to form a bulwark again China, I just don't see there's a way any administration can offer for these countries to risk angering China in the global playing field.
A little remembered fact about the Spanish American War is that, in spite of the intentions of William Randolph Hearst, war was not started by the USA. Formally, Spain declared war instead. About as sensible as Hitler's declaring war after Japan attacked Pearl Harbor - there was no great reason to do that - legally and possibly morally it makes the US position better.
Deep connections to ASEAN, South Korea and Japan. Complex region to say the least, with national and ethnic enmities that make the obvious alliances (in our U.S. eyes) complicated and at times impossible. Not to be ignored is the sizable ethnic Chinese minority that exists in pretty much every country. They are very successful in business, and some (but by no means all) retain close ties to China. They are viewed negatively in many countries (Indonesia and Malayasia in particular), and are very distinct in the PI. I would say that national interests drive foreign policy, and that is driven by the current government leaders in each nation. Given how the leaders change, they are almost as bad as the U.S. changing over every four years or so, and no less corrupt. The PI politics are especially corrupt, with a distressing tendency to make a deal, but not stay bought. See Duterte and his shifting positions and note the return of the Marcos clan to power. Not sure who is less reliable, us or them.
I believe the US government is in a structured and planned decline.
They want China to assume the title, troubles and Policing of the world according to their hard line stance. If any nation can force Globalism with a Chinese agenda, China can.
The US Government wants to concentrate on Us.
Reset the Nation into their view of Paradise on earth. Or Else.
I fear they are ready to lose a battle or a war to start their full on retreat and isolationism of the world, till the Chinese stabilize Global power and then join in as a Partner.
Crazy I know but look around us now and see what the Gov. is doing and has done to Us.
{A point of editorial privilege here unrelated to the core of this post: the next administration should find out if any non-political appointees were involved in using the word “fisherfolk,” identify them, and have them transferred to what is now an unpronouncable base in Greenland formally known as Thule.}
Thule? Wishful thinking...all that decent liberty in your off-time. Such a person would be recalled to active duty at bayonet point, issued only Tropical Whites and be detailed to an ABF2 billet in Shemya.
The Philippines are a true oligarchy, with a very high GINI (income inequality) index, and what has been described as "an exceptionally greedy elite." Anti-monopoly and anti-trust laws against vertical integration and collusion are non-existant or unenforced. Wholesale markets for produce are rigged, screwing the farmers. Land reform was never fully implemented, leaving many tenant farmers. Foreign investment is blocked, as it might upset the mango carts of the vertically-integrated oligarchic families - the Sys, Gokongweis, Ayalas, Lopezes
As anyone who has visited knows, things are relatively expensive compared to Thailand, Vietnam, even Malaysia, because markets are rigged.
Infrastructure is underdeveloped. Only the energy of overseas workers sending remittances keeps most families afloat
All of this leaves the Philippines vulnerable to internal subversion, including the purchase of the corrupt business and political class. Many of the business class are ethnic Chinese and could be susceptible to appeals of blood and family.
The USA has mostly neglected the Philippines as far as real aid programs go. The Japanese have been better - they actually build things rather than lecture the natives.
For your average Juan de la Cruz, Chinese development promises might look pretty good. Really, in places like Tondo it could hardly be worse.
Fisherfolk is not a neologism, I'm pretty sure it's a term that was used by Tolkien. Knee-jerk antiwokism is a detraction from your generally good points.
"SULLIVAN: Well, the U.S. and the Philippines have this decades-old mutual defense treaty. And Marcos, I think, will be looking for assurances that the U.S. has his back in any open confrontation with China, where the red line is that would oblige the U.S. to come to Manila's aid. During the Obama and Trump administrations, there was a sense in Manila that the answer to that question wasn't really clear. In announcing this visit, the White House declared the U.S. commitment to the defense of the Philippines is, quote, "ironclad." I'd expect Marcos will be asking Biden exactly what ironclad means."
"The State Department says the Marshall Islands is a sovereign nation, but "the United States has full authority and responsibility for security and defense of the Marshall Islands, and the Government of the Marshall Islands is obligated to refrain from taking actions that would be incompatible with these security and defense responsibilities.""
Stand down USS Farragut. The US will act when State decides what the definition of "is" is, AND issues appropriate guidance.
Speaking of editorial comments...LOVE your missives, but just a LITTLE bit of proof reading/spell-checking would be nice, to wit: “...decaying Spanish empire in its death throughs.”
Hmmmm. Just what was the Spanish empire’s death going through? Or did you mean, “death throes”?
It’s like what my Plebe Year English prof said, “When you spell ‘cat’ ‘k a t ‘, everybody is too busy laughing that you spelled ‘cat’ ‘k a t’ to pay any attention to the rest of what you wrote.”
When I look at the map, I think of Malta...
As someone who was involved in ASEAN politics in my former life, my view of the matter is that the Philippines are gonna continue to play both side and tries it best to appease both world powers. There is no incentive for Philippines to go with either. If they allied with China, the US will sanctions them to literal economic stability. If they allied with the USA, they will suffers from extreme border incursions and risks getting into a conflict that will likely cost Philippines its current economic future and possible freedom.
By no means that I mean the Administration is not doing enough to form a bulwark again China, I just don't see there's a way any administration can offer for these countries to risk angering China in the global playing field.
A little remembered fact about the Spanish American War is that, in spite of the intentions of William Randolph Hearst, war was not started by the USA. Formally, Spain declared war instead. About as sensible as Hitler's declaring war after Japan attacked Pearl Harbor - there was no great reason to do that - legally and possibly morally it makes the US position better.
https://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=fisherfolk&year_start=1980&year_end=2019&corpus=en-2019&smoothing=7&case_insensitive=true
I'm so old I remember when we had MASSIVE Air Force and Naval bases in the PI.....
Good times, good times....
Come ye back you Yankee sailor, come ye back to Subic Bay. :-)
Deep connections to ASEAN, South Korea and Japan. Complex region to say the least, with national and ethnic enmities that make the obvious alliances (in our U.S. eyes) complicated and at times impossible. Not to be ignored is the sizable ethnic Chinese minority that exists in pretty much every country. They are very successful in business, and some (but by no means all) retain close ties to China. They are viewed negatively in many countries (Indonesia and Malayasia in particular), and are very distinct in the PI. I would say that national interests drive foreign policy, and that is driven by the current government leaders in each nation. Given how the leaders change, they are almost as bad as the U.S. changing over every four years or so, and no less corrupt. The PI politics are especially corrupt, with a distressing tendency to make a deal, but not stay bought. See Duterte and his shifting positions and note the return of the Marcos clan to power. Not sure who is less reliable, us or them.
I believe the US government is in a structured and planned decline.
They want China to assume the title, troubles and Policing of the world according to their hard line stance. If any nation can force Globalism with a Chinese agenda, China can.
The US Government wants to concentrate on Us.
Reset the Nation into their view of Paradise on earth. Or Else.
I fear they are ready to lose a battle or a war to start their full on retreat and isolationism of the world, till the Chinese stabilize Global power and then join in as a Partner.
Crazy I know but look around us now and see what the Gov. is doing and has done to Us.
They are crazy.
The Philippines are weak, relatively unindustrialized, and still beset with internal strife.
They are the exact type of domino that a Marxist power seeks.
Spent multiple tours in Subic. Helped with the NAVMAG relocation and disestablishment post Pinatubo eruption. Glad we are going back.
I like to reel in a catfish sometimes, can I identify as "fisherfolk"?
{A point of editorial privilege here unrelated to the core of this post: the next administration should find out if any non-political appointees were involved in using the word “fisherfolk,” identify them, and have them transferred to what is now an unpronouncable base in Greenland formally known as Thule.}
Thule? Wishful thinking...all that decent liberty in your off-time. Such a person would be recalled to active duty at bayonet point, issued only Tropical Whites and be detailed to an ABF2 billet in Shemya.
The Philippines are a true oligarchy, with a very high GINI (income inequality) index, and what has been described as "an exceptionally greedy elite." Anti-monopoly and anti-trust laws against vertical integration and collusion are non-existant or unenforced. Wholesale markets for produce are rigged, screwing the farmers. Land reform was never fully implemented, leaving many tenant farmers. Foreign investment is blocked, as it might upset the mango carts of the vertically-integrated oligarchic families - the Sys, Gokongweis, Ayalas, Lopezes
As anyone who has visited knows, things are relatively expensive compared to Thailand, Vietnam, even Malaysia, because markets are rigged.
Infrastructure is underdeveloped. Only the energy of overseas workers sending remittances keeps most families afloat
All of this leaves the Philippines vulnerable to internal subversion, including the purchase of the corrupt business and political class. Many of the business class are ethnic Chinese and could be susceptible to appeals of blood and family.
The USA has mostly neglected the Philippines as far as real aid programs go. The Japanese have been better - they actually build things rather than lecture the natives.
For your average Juan de la Cruz, Chinese development promises might look pretty good. Really, in places like Tondo it could hardly be worse.
Fisherfolk is not a neologism, I'm pretty sure it's a term that was used by Tolkien. Knee-jerk antiwokism is a detraction from your generally good points.
I knew this post was a'coming. I heard this story on NPR during my commute yesterday morning. https://www.npr.org/2023/05/01/1172996835/at-biden-marcos-meeting-china-is-expected-to-be-at-the-top-of-the-agenda
"SULLIVAN: Well, the U.S. and the Philippines have this decades-old mutual defense treaty. And Marcos, I think, will be looking for assurances that the U.S. has his back in any open confrontation with China, where the red line is that would oblige the U.S. to come to Manila's aid. During the Obama and Trump administrations, there was a sense in Manila that the answer to that question wasn't really clear. In announcing this visit, the White House declared the U.S. commitment to the defense of the Philippines is, quote, "ironclad." I'd expect Marcos will be asking Biden exactly what ironclad means."
Given that the Top Men from the Obama Administration are back in charge, there's no need for Marcos to look any further that what "ironclad" meant back in 2015. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2015/04/28/obama-iran-white-house-ship-marshall-island-nuclear/26507995/
"The State Department says the Marshall Islands is a sovereign nation, but "the United States has full authority and responsibility for security and defense of the Marshall Islands, and the Government of the Marshall Islands is obligated to refrain from taking actions that would be incompatible with these security and defense responsibilities.""
Stand down USS Farragut. The US will act when State decides what the definition of "is" is, AND issues appropriate guidance.
Speaking of editorial comments...LOVE your missives, but just a LITTLE bit of proof reading/spell-checking would be nice, to wit: “...decaying Spanish empire in its death throughs.”
Hmmmm. Just what was the Spanish empire’s death going through? Or did you mean, “death throes”?
It’s like what my Plebe Year English prof said, “When you spell ‘cat’ ‘k a t ‘, everybody is too busy laughing that you spelled ‘cat’ ‘k a t’ to pay any attention to the rest of what you wrote.”