The Philippines and the People's Republic at Center Stage with Ray Powell on Midrats
history keeps moving
While everyone is focused on the Red Sea or the goings on in Ukraine, there are serious developments between The Philippines and the Peoples Republic of China that is not going to wait for the other world's problems to finish up their time in the sun.
If the main game is in the Western Pacific, then The Philippines are the center square.
Returning to Midrats to discuss this ongoing story will be Ray Powell.
Ray is the Founder and Director of SeaLight, a maritime transparency project of the Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation at Stanford University, California. Ray served 35 years in the U.S. Air Force, including posts in the Philippines, Japan, Germany, and Qatar, as well as combat tours in Iraq and Afghanistan. He served as the U.S. Air Attaché to Vietnam and the U.S. Defense Attaché to Australia.
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One principle I used to frame situations for my consulting customers was, “I can’t care more than you do”.
Longer term - beyond the immediate situation...
The Philippines has been massively underinvesting in its military for a long time - barely over 1% of GDP. Had it been doing anything sensible it would have a minimally credible navy, Air Force and coast guard. But it hasn’t and it doesn’t. Noise about changing that on their own is barely a “making a reach” type of effort.
We seem to care more than they do.
What needs to happen in the next...5 years to change this? Basically Trump’s point about Europe and NATO spending, with the assumption we need to help the likes of the Philippines a bit more. Assuming they are aligned on actually giving a crap, what does that look like?
Assume a new president arrives in January 2025 and the new ambassador to the Philippines is looking for a cost effective proposal on how to make them a credible deterrent force and US partner.
Spitballing here:
They need to get to 2% of GDP on defense. We give them a 1:2 match on $ to support it. That’s like an extra $3-4b a year, at least.
For equipment:
Buy/Build licensed Tuo Chiang corvettes and the coast guard version - like 2 a year of each. Surely the Philippines has some quasi decent shipbuilding capacity that can be leveraged here?
Any number of options for smaller missile patrol boats that can be built in quantity, and cheap, that are suitable for the area.
Acquire the soon to be retired San Giorgio transport docks from Italy, acquire a credible array of Cobra gunships from US surplus, and complementary helicopter assets to create some believable mobile “punch”
Acquire the retiring Singapore submarines (Archer, Challenger).
Get off the schneid and finally buy at least 24 Saab Gripen with plenty of munitions
All just notional pieces of the equation.
What’s required to assemble a force, and more importantly to turn it into a credible deterrent that actually functions in the next five years on its own, and as a reasonable partner for the US?
That pic alone, along with a map showing the location of this happening, 'should' get people's interest.