One principle I used to frame situations for my consulting customers was, “I can’t care more than you do”.
Longer term - beyond the immediate situation...
The Philippines has been massively underinvesting in its military for a long time - barely over 1% of GDP. Had it been doing anything sensible it would have a minimally credible navy, Air Force and coast guard. But it hasn’t and it doesn’t. Noise about changing that on their own is barely a “making a reach” type of effort.
We seem to care more than they do.
What needs to happen in the next...5 years to change this? Basically Trump’s point about Europe and NATO spending, with the assumption we need to help the likes of the Philippines a bit more. Assuming they are aligned on actually giving a crap, what does that look like?
Assume a new president arrives in January 2025 and the new ambassador to the Philippines is looking for a cost effective proposal on how to make them a credible deterrent force and US partner.
Spitballing here:
They need to get to 2% of GDP on defense. We give them a 1:2 match on $ to support it. That’s like an extra $3-4b a year, at least.
For equipment:
Buy/Build licensed Tuo Chiang corvettes and the coast guard version - like 2 a year of each. Surely the Philippines has some quasi decent shipbuilding capacity that can be leveraged here?
Any number of options for smaller missile patrol boats that can be built in quantity, and cheap, that are suitable for the area.
Acquire the soon to be retired San Giorgio transport docks from Italy, acquire a credible array of Cobra gunships from US surplus, and complementary helicopter assets to create some believable mobile “punch”
Acquire the retiring Singapore submarines (Archer, Challenger).
Get off the schneid and finally buy at least 24 Saab Gripen with plenty of munitions
All just notional pieces of the equation.
What’s required to assemble a force, and more importantly to turn it into a credible deterrent that actually functions in the next five years on its own, and as a reasonable partner for the US?
This is why I come to the Porch! Interesting thought experiment! Politics and bs aside, what’s the best you can do with the situation in place X, assuming ballpark realistic time and budget constraints
But there are so factors that could play into why they aren’t more prepared.
One factor could be that it’s hard to justify spending more on defense when so many citizens are living in poverty. It a bit hard for a large number of their citizens are more worried about feeding their kids and not living ina literal rubbish dump than caring about some rocks in ocean.
Another factor could be that the government is more worried about internal conflict and Islamic extremism than again those rocks on the ocean.
They are a very poor country, probably the poorest in the region with even communist Vietnam being more well off.
Not staying it’s right or wrong or whatever, but there are plausible explanations as to why they don’t do more.
Bingo. And as for our earlier defense arrangement, it was still very colonial for being post colonial. Career options like base hooker really wasn't the arrangement they were pumped about. I think we may get this right the second go.
While watching football I ran some numbers on GDP per capita and defense spending per capita. 13 countries with GDP per capita of $2,500 - $4,500, PH at $3,500. Range of defense spending per capita in 2022 was from $28.6 (Bangladeshi) to $226 (Jordan). PH is next to last at $35.2. Others in the list include Congo (Rep), Angola, Honduras, PNG, Sri Lanka, Morocco, Tunisia, Vietnam, Egypt, Jordan, Algeria. Even spending at the rate of Egypt would be another $1b a year. Match that per my prior suggestion and you’re at $1.5b more, and I’d like to think given the cost of manpower there you could put half that to acquisition over the next 5 years. Put another $500m a year into dual use infra improvements (air strip length, port facilities)
OFC just one way to look at it. Regardless, I’d say clearly there is room for them to demonstrate they care at least as much as we do.
I don't think it's pure coincidence, but it's neither conspiracy. It's simply, you drop the ball, the enemies pounce. And dropping the ball can by anything from Europe not spending enough, or Philippines, or US having another political drama (which shows internal instability, so harder to react), or or or or.
I think, sadly, the collective West has had it too good, for too long, and now the main societal problems are soo outrageous ("Please select your gender from the following 28 options", for one example), that I'm not surprised at all that the enemies are reacting.
It's a plan no doubt, the old Chinese execution Lingchi "death by a thousand cuts" first they pump opium or in our case Fentanyl and them slicing flesh off till the victim dies.
Have an extensive military experience, attache, personal affiliation, and U.S. government regional pol/mil policy development in SEA (Indonesia, PI) and Korea, Japan. The previous commenter who noted "I can't care more than you do" is a thread winner. People in the region are self interested and ethnically invested in ways we don't understand. We do things they think are stupid, and don't trust us. Stupid people get taken advantage of. OBTW, you can "buy" someone's cooperation / alignment with aid and grants, but the minute the current regime in power gets a better deal, they'll take it. They see us in decline with multiple examples of our unreliability as an ally. China is the bully in the neighborhood acting with little apparent pushback from the U.S. so who is surprised they see it is in their best interest to be neutral or lean China?
The Philippines were very hotly contested during War II. The Navy fought many a battle over those islands, both on sea, and on land. MacArthur was not happy that we gave them autonomy. He thought we should have held them and made them ours.
It's a mark of stupidity that we haven't helped them grow their navy in order to protect their people.
But then we are also stupid enough not to have won over Central and south America, when we could have.
That pic alone, along with a map showing the location of this happening, 'should' get people's interest.
One principle I used to frame situations for my consulting customers was, “I can’t care more than you do”.
Longer term - beyond the immediate situation...
The Philippines has been massively underinvesting in its military for a long time - barely over 1% of GDP. Had it been doing anything sensible it would have a minimally credible navy, Air Force and coast guard. But it hasn’t and it doesn’t. Noise about changing that on their own is barely a “making a reach” type of effort.
We seem to care more than they do.
What needs to happen in the next...5 years to change this? Basically Trump’s point about Europe and NATO spending, with the assumption we need to help the likes of the Philippines a bit more. Assuming they are aligned on actually giving a crap, what does that look like?
Assume a new president arrives in January 2025 and the new ambassador to the Philippines is looking for a cost effective proposal on how to make them a credible deterrent force and US partner.
Spitballing here:
They need to get to 2% of GDP on defense. We give them a 1:2 match on $ to support it. That’s like an extra $3-4b a year, at least.
For equipment:
Buy/Build licensed Tuo Chiang corvettes and the coast guard version - like 2 a year of each. Surely the Philippines has some quasi decent shipbuilding capacity that can be leveraged here?
Any number of options for smaller missile patrol boats that can be built in quantity, and cheap, that are suitable for the area.
Acquire the soon to be retired San Giorgio transport docks from Italy, acquire a credible array of Cobra gunships from US surplus, and complementary helicopter assets to create some believable mobile “punch”
Acquire the retiring Singapore submarines (Archer, Challenger).
Get off the schneid and finally buy at least 24 Saab Gripen with plenty of munitions
All just notional pieces of the equation.
What’s required to assemble a force, and more importantly to turn it into a credible deterrent that actually functions in the next five years on its own, and as a reasonable partner for the US?
This is why I come to the Porch! Interesting thought experiment! Politics and bs aside, what’s the best you can do with the situation in place X, assuming ballpark realistic time and budget constraints
Not only have the Philippines not invested in their own defense, they decided to change the protection that the US was offering for a half-century.
Sucks to be them, but I find it hard to GAF
I get what you’re saying a really do.
But there are so factors that could play into why they aren’t more prepared.
One factor could be that it’s hard to justify spending more on defense when so many citizens are living in poverty. It a bit hard for a large number of their citizens are more worried about feeding their kids and not living ina literal rubbish dump than caring about some rocks in ocean.
Another factor could be that the government is more worried about internal conflict and Islamic extremism than again those rocks on the ocean.
They are a very poor country, probably the poorest in the region with even communist Vietnam being more well off.
Not staying it’s right or wrong or whatever, but there are plausible explanations as to why they don’t do more.
Bingo. And as for our earlier defense arrangement, it was still very colonial for being post colonial. Career options like base hooker really wasn't the arrangement they were pumped about. I think we may get this right the second go.
The nightlife at 'Po City was not the US' doing. It was a result of no options in the corrupt PI's
You travel outside the influence of Po city and Angeles city and the people and land is much nicer!
All of that is true, which makes their pissing in the US' cornflakes even worse. And which of their Presidents was counting on China to protect them?
Nixon, Ford, Carter et cetra.
While watching football I ran some numbers on GDP per capita and defense spending per capita. 13 countries with GDP per capita of $2,500 - $4,500, PH at $3,500. Range of defense spending per capita in 2022 was from $28.6 (Bangladeshi) to $226 (Jordan). PH is next to last at $35.2. Others in the list include Congo (Rep), Angola, Honduras, PNG, Sri Lanka, Morocco, Tunisia, Vietnam, Egypt, Jordan, Algeria. Even spending at the rate of Egypt would be another $1b a year. Match that per my prior suggestion and you’re at $1.5b more, and I’d like to think given the cost of manpower there you could put half that to acquisition over the next 5 years. Put another $500m a year into dual use infra improvements (air strip length, port facilities)
OFC just one way to look at it. Regardless, I’d say clearly there is room for them to demonstrate they care at least as much as we do.
god bless simple facts, cited and used objectively. far too absent from our debates these days
Huks are still there.
The West seems to be getting hit at a number of different points at the same time. Coincidence? More to come?
I don't think it's pure coincidence, but it's neither conspiracy. It's simply, you drop the ball, the enemies pounce. And dropping the ball can by anything from Europe not spending enough, or Philippines, or US having another political drama (which shows internal instability, so harder to react), or or or or.
I think, sadly, the collective West has had it too good, for too long, and now the main societal problems are soo outrageous ("Please select your gender from the following 28 options", for one example), that I'm not surprised at all that the enemies are reacting.
Would Iran be acting right now if we were still fully funding Ukraine?
Unlikely. Their big brother in Moscow would have urged restraint. Not anymore.
It's a plan no doubt, the old Chinese execution Lingchi "death by a thousand cuts" first they pump opium or in our case Fentanyl and them slicing flesh off till the victim dies.
Have an extensive military experience, attache, personal affiliation, and U.S. government regional pol/mil policy development in SEA (Indonesia, PI) and Korea, Japan. The previous commenter who noted "I can't care more than you do" is a thread winner. People in the region are self interested and ethnically invested in ways we don't understand. We do things they think are stupid, and don't trust us. Stupid people get taken advantage of. OBTW, you can "buy" someone's cooperation / alignment with aid and grants, but the minute the current regime in power gets a better deal, they'll take it. They see us in decline with multiple examples of our unreliability as an ally. China is the bully in the neighborhood acting with little apparent pushback from the U.S. so who is surprised they see it is in their best interest to be neutral or lean China?
“Philippines has been showing some steel”. Well, maybe. But it’s 1/8” plate - not exactly a meter of RHA
The Philippines were very hotly contested during War II. The Navy fought many a battle over those islands, both on sea, and on land. MacArthur was not happy that we gave them autonomy. He thought we should have held them and made them ours.
It's a mark of stupidity that we haven't helped them grow their navy in order to protect their people.
But then we are also stupid enough not to have won over Central and south America, when we could have.
It was always coming after April 1975.
TBF, Angeles was much nicer than 'Po